Estimates Of Population Size Research Articles

An empirical test of the estimation of historical effective population size using Drosophila melanogaster.

The availability of a large number of high-density markers (SNPs) allows the estimation of historical effective population size (Ne ) from linkage disequilibrium between loci. A recent refinement of methods to estimate historical Ne from the recent past has been shown to be rather accurate with simulation data. The method has also been applied to real data for numerous species. However, the simulation data cannot encompass all the complexities of real genomes, and the performance of any estimation method with real data is always uncertain, as the true demography of the populations is not known. Here, we carried out an experimental design with Drosophila melanogaster to test the method with real data following a known demographic history. We used a population maintained in the laboratory with a constant census size of about 2800 individuals and subjected the population to a drastic decline to a size of 100 individuals. After a few generations, the population was expanded back to the previous size and after a few further generations again expanded to twice the initial size. Estimates of historical Ne were obtained with the software GONE both for autosomal and X chromosomes from samples of 17 individuals sequenced for the whole genome. Estimates of the historical effective size were able to infer the patterns of changes that occurred in the populations showing generally good performance of the method. We discuss the limitations of the method and the application of the software carried out so far.

MADERA: A standardized Pan-Amazonian dataset for tropical timber species.

We compiled and presented a dataset for all timber species reported in the Amazon region from all nine South American Amazonian countries. This was based on official information from every country, as well as from two substantial scientific references. We verified the standard taxonomic names from each individual source, using the Taxonomic Name Resolution Service (TNRS) and considered all Amazonian tree species with diameter at breast height (DBH) ≥10 cm. We also obtained estimates of the current population size for most species from a published approach based on data from 1900 tree inventory plots (1-ha each) distributed across the Amazon region and part from the Amazon Tree Diversity Network (ATDN). We then identified the hyperdominant timber species. In addition, we overlapped our timber species list with data for species that are used for commercial purposes, according to the International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO), the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) and the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) taxa assessment and Red List categories. Finally, we also included IUCN Red List categories based on combined deforestation, and climate change scenarios for these species. Our final Amazonian timber species dataset contains 1112 unique species records, which belong to 337 genera and 72 families from the lowland Amazonian rainforest, with associated information related to population, conservation, and trade status of each species. The authors of this research expect that the information provided will be useful to strengthen the public forestry policies of the Amazon countries, inform ecological studies, as well for forest management purposes. The data are released under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license.

Estimating the Size of Clustered Hidden Populations

Abstract Successive sampling population size estimation (SS-PSE) is a method used by government agencies, aid organizations, and researchers around the world to estimate the size of hidden populations using data from respondent-driven sampling surveys. SS-PSE addresses a specific need in estimation, since many countries rely on having accurate size estimates to plan and allocate finite resources to address the needs of hidden populations. However, SS-PSE relies on several assumptions, one of which requires the underlying social network of the hidden population to be fully connected. We propose two modifications to SS-PSE for estimating the size of hidden populations whose underlying social network is composed of disjoint clusters. The first method is a theoretically straightforward extension of SS-PSE, but it relies on prior information that may be difficult to obtain in practice. The second method extends the Bayesian SS-PSE model by introducing a new set of parameters that allow for clustered estimation without requiring the additional prior information. After providing theoretical justification for both novel methods, we then assess their performance using simulations and apply the Clustered SS-PSE method to a population of internally displaced persons in Bamako, Mali.

Climbing on the La Canna Volcanic Sea Stack to Obtain First-Hand Data on the Tiniest Population of the Critically Endangered Aeolian Wall Lizard Podarcis raffonei.

Among the extant populations of the critically endangered Aeolian wall lizard, the most vulnerable is the one surviving on La Canna, a columnar volcanic stack off the Filicudi Island. Here, I report the results of the first climbing expedition by a biologist on La Canna, that contributed direct observations and updated information on the size, morphology, and genetic variability of this population. Lizard density at the sampling site (a small terrace at 50 m of elevation) was 1.7 m-2, twice of a previous estimate. Standard methods for estimating population size are unsuitable for La Canna. An educated guess of about a hundred individuals can be drawn, considering the extent of habitat available on the stack and the number of observed lizards. Lizards on La Canna were not fearless, despite what was reported by alpinists, possibly because of aggressive intraspecific interactions or high environmental temperatures during sampling. Biometric data significantly extend the body size of La Canna's lizards and indicate that it is not smaller than other P. raffonei populations. A complete lack of genetic diversity was found at the mitochondrial nd4 gene, in line with previous allozyme data and with estimates on other microinsular Podarcis populations. The small size of the La Canna population implies severe genetic drift and an extremely high level of inbreeding, as supported by low heterozygosity found across the genome. Detrimental effects of inbreeding depression are evident as cephalic malformations observed in all captured lizards of La Canna and might represent the more immediate threat to the persistence of this population.

Estimates of the Effective Population Size and Genetic Structure of the Critically Endangered Ship Sturgeon (Acipenser nudiventris) in the Chinese Section of the Ili River

Ship sturgeon (Acipenser nudiventris) is a critically endangered fish that is listed on the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Red List of Threatened Species. Sixteen individuals from the Chinese section of the Ili River were genotyped using genome re-sequencing technology. By applying a genomic relatedness estimation with 1,527,694 genome-wide SNP markers, we found that the coancestry coefficients showed a high level of relatedness between individuals. The effective population sizes over 500 generations were estimated, and this showed that the effective population sizes began to dramatically decline from about 14,840 to 171 individuals when going back four generations from the current population. Artificial reproduction techniques guided by genomic relatedness may be a valuable approach to the conservation of this critically endangered fish species.

Revisiting Published Distribution Maps and Estimates of Population Size of Landbirds Breeding in Eurasia and Wintering in Africa

Revisiting Published Distribution Maps and Estimates of Population Size of Landbirds Breeding in Eurasia and Wintering in Africa

Changes in over-winter prey availability, rather than winter climate, are associated with a long-term decline in a northern Tawny Owl population

Although the associations between climate, food conditions and reproduction in the wild has been the focus of numerous studies in recent years, we still know little about population level responses to climate and fluctuating food conditions in long-lived species and during longer periods of time. Here, we assessed the relative importance of the abundance of the main prey in winter (small mammals), and winter climate on population size and productivity in a Tawny Owl (Strix aluco) population in southern Finland during a 40-year period. We studied how population trends changed over time and in relation to winter weather and small mammal abundance on three levels: total estimated population size, proportion of breeders and population productivity. We identified declining trends in each population parameter over time, as well as directional changes in climate variables and prey abundance. Overall, small mammal abundance was the foremost predictor in explaining the variation in the number of active territorial pairs (population size). Moreover, both prey abundance and winter temperature significantly affected the proportion of territorial pairs that attempted to breed and thereby total offspring production, which reveals the relevance of winter weather conditions for population productivity. These results provide additional support to the view that changes in climate can modify predator–prey interactions leading to functional changes in the food web.

Population structure of Phanaeus vindex (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) in SE Michigan.

Until now, little is known about the population structure and mobility of temperate dung beetles including the rainbow scarab, Phanaeus vindex (MacLeay 1819), although this knowledge is essential for their conservation as pastures become increasingly rare and the landscape fragmented by monocultures and urbanization. Here, we estimated population size, longevity, and dispersal within and between pastures. For 3 yr, we life-trapped beetles every week on 2 adjacent farms in SE Michigan, determined their sex, male morph, and size, and marked their elytra with individual tattoo patterns before releasing them. We marked a total of 470 rainbow scarabs of which 14 were recaptured once and 2 were recaptured twice. The sex ratio was not significantly sex-biased but fluctuated between months with no apparent uniformity between years. While the minor to major male ratios were unbiased in 2019 and 2020, they were marginally minor-biased in 2021. The gross population estimates for the 2 farms were 458-491 and 217 rainbow scarabs, respectively. Beetles traveled distances of up to 178 m within farms. No beetles dispersed between farms. One large female was recaptured after 338 days documenting the first cold hardiness and long lifespan of a cold-temperate dung beetle species in the wild. The low population estimates on both farms indicate 2 vulnerable populations with no or extremely limited connectivity. Supplementary funding for the land stewardship of small-scale cattle farmers could stabilize populations of native dung beetles and maintain their ecosystem services.

Optimizing the automated recognition of individual animals to support population monitoring.

Reliable estimates of population size and demographic rates are central to assessing the status of threatened species. However, obtaining individual-based demographic rates requires long-term data, which is often costly and difficult to collect. Photographic data offer an inexpensive, noninvasive method for individual-based monitoring of species with unique markings, and could therefore increase available demographic data for many species. However, selecting suitable images and identifying individuals from photographic catalogs is prohibitively time-consuming. Automated identification software can significantly speed up this process. Nevertheless, automated methods for selecting suitable images are lacking, as are studies comparing the performance of the most prominent identification software packages. In this study, we develop a framework that automatically selects images suitable for individual identification, and compare the performance of three commonly used identification software packages; Hotspotter, I3S-Pattern, and WildID. As a case study, we consider the African wild dog, Lycaon pictus, a species whose conservation is limited by a lack of cost-effective large-scale monitoring. To evaluate intraspecific variation in the performance of software packages, we compare identification accuracy between two populations (in Kenya and Zimbabwe) that have markedly different coat coloration patterns. The process of selecting suitable images was automated using convolutional neural networks that crop individuals from images, filter out unsuitable images, separate left and right flanks, and remove image backgrounds. Hotspotter had the highest image-matching accuracy for both populations. However, the accuracy was significantly lower for the Kenyan population (62%), compared to the Zimbabwean population (88%). Our automated image preprocessing has immediate application for expanding monitoring based on image matching. However, the difference in accuracy between populations highlights that population-specific detection rates are likely and may influence certainty in derived statistics. For species such as the African wild dog, where monitoring is both challenging and expensive, automated individual recognition could greatly expand and expedite conservation efforts.

Effects of a hydropower project on a high-value Asian elephant population.

Habitat loss and fragmentation are leading contributors to the endangered status of species. In 2006, the Nakai Plateau contained the largest known Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) population in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), and the population was among those with the highest genetic diversity reported for Asian elephants. In 2008, completion of the Nam Theun 2 hydroelectric dam inundated much of the Plateau, resulting in the loss of 40% of elephant habitat. We studied elephant presence, movements, and the incidence of human-elephant conflict (HEC) on the Nakai Plateau and surrounding areas from 2004 to 2020, before and for 12 years after dam completion. To examine contemporary population dynamics in the Nakai elephants, we used genetic sampling to compare minimum population numbers, demography, and levels of genetic diversity from the wet and dry seasons in 2018/2019, 10 years after dam completion, with those reported in a pre-dam-completion genetic survey. After dam completion, we found a major increase in HEC locally and the creation of new, serious, and persistent HEC problems as far as 100 km away. While we were unable to compare estimated population sizes before and after dam completion, our data revealed a decrease in genetic diversity, a male-biased sex ratio, and evidence of dispersal from the Plateau by breeding-age females. Our results raise concerns about the long-term viability of this important population as well as that of other species in this region. Given that hydropower projects are of economic importance throughout Laos and elsewhere in southeast Asia, this study has important implications for understanding and mitigating their impact.

Fecal matters: implementing classical Coleoptera species lists with metabarcoding data from passerine bird feces

Diversity inventories are critical to creating accurate species range maps and estimating population sizes, which in turn lead to better informed landscape and wildlife management decisions. Metabarcoding has facilitated large-scale environmental diversity surveys. However, the use of a metabarcoding approach with bird feces to survey arthropod diversity is still relatively undeveloped. The aim of this study was to see if and how a metabarcoding approach with bird feces could contribute to a saproxylic Coleoptera survey of traditional insect traps. We compared two methods of surveying saproxylic Coleoptera diversity (metabarcoding birds feces and deploying traditional traps) over two elevations in a mountain system. The two methods caught different species and different levels of functional guild richness. The metabarcoding method successfully recorded both distinct and overlapping portions of diversity from traditional collections, and the approach was also effective in signaling the presence of both rare species and nine country records. Our results show that metabarcoding Passerine bird feces can be successful when used alongside traditional collection methods to capture a broad diversity of saproxylic Coleoptera. This method, however, has quantitative and qualitative limitations, including the inability to produce species abundance data as well as the generation of false positives and negatives due to biases within the metabarcoding pipeline.Implications for insect conservationAs many terrestrial ecosystems lose insect diversity, insect diversity surveys are essential to understand the scope of the loss. Despite metabarcoding approach shortcomings, the declining costs and shorter survey and processing time required for this approach compared to traditional survey methods indicate that it can be a valuable addition to the toolkit for saproxylic Coleoptera diversity surveys.

A comparative profile of urinary scent signals of two endangered Japanese populations of leopard cat

Two subspecies of mainland leopard cats (Prionailurus bengalensis), Iriomote cats (Prionailurus bengalensis iriomotensis), and Tsushima leopard cats (Prionailurus bengalensis euptilurus), are small, endangered felids that are endemic to the Japanese islands, Iriomote-jima and Tsushima, respectively. Both subspecies have an estimated population size of only about 100 individuals each. Therefore, it is crucial to expand our understanding of these subspecies to successfully conserve them. While their morphology, anatomy, ecology, pathology, and genetics are well studied, little is known about their physiology regulated in subspecies-specific manners. This study characterized their urinary volatile and nonvolatile organic compounds, with which individuals express their physiological status and territorial ownership. We found significantly higher levels of 3-mercapto-3-methyl-1-butanol and its structural analogs, which are scent signals of domestic cats, in the urinary headspace of Iriomote cats than in that of Tsushima leopard cats. There were no differences in the urinary levels of felinine, an amino acid that acts as a precursor of 3-mercapto-3-methyl-1-butanol, suggesting the variation of catalytic activities for decomposing felinine to 3-mercapto-3-methyl-1-butanol between subspecies. Both subspecies exhibited physiological proteinuria due to the secretion of carboxylesterase 5A, also known as cauxin, for the production of felinine. In conclusion, while the two endangered Japanese subspecies of mainland leopard cats share similar genetic backgrounds, urinary contents of metabolites vary between the subspecies. We suggest that after the separation into two subspecies, the regulation of the metabolic pathway for 3-mercapto-3-methyl-1-butanol production likely evolved differently in each subspecies in response to their specific environments.

Evidence of the Atlantic nurse shark (Ginglymostoma cirratum) population shrink at Rocas Atoll, Southwestern Atlantic

Abstract The Atlantic nurse shark, Ginglymostoma cirratum, was recently listed as Vulnerable by IUCN Red List, however, as highlighted, little is known about its populations in the Southwestern Atlantic. Therefore, population studies are essential to propose status evaluations and new conservation measures. Natural marks present on the animals' bodies are used as an alternative non‐invasive method rather than the usual tagging system for individual identification, thus avoiding the need for animal handling. This study aimed to evaluate the population size trend of G. cirratum at the Rocas Atoll Marine Biological Reserve, the only atoll located in the South Atlantic. Data were collected through underwater filming, photo‐identification, and visual censuses. Three expeditions were carried out in 2018 and the abundance of sharks was sampled in the inner part of Rocas Atoll Marine Biological Reserve. Sharks were identified individually with the aid of the software Interactive Identification System – Contour (I3S). Based on the re‐sightings of identified animals, two capture–recapture estimators of population size were used (Petersen–Bailey; Jolly–Seber). The estimates were then compared to the only previous estimate made 20 years before, which employed the same number of expeditions and estimators. A total of 139 sharks were identified from 444 sightings in 63 h of diving effort. Population estimates varied from 200 to 205 sharks, which are significantly lower than the previous estimate (339–368 sharks) made 20 years ago, suggesting a demographic decline in Southwestern Atlantic populations. Population studies and movement of G. cirratum are essential to inform the implementation of additional protective measures, including the establishment of protected corridors between marine protected areas and the recovery of G. cirratum populations. It is crucial to consider that the distribution of individuals may extend beyond the borders of the non‐take marine protected area. Therefore, the observed decline in the local population could potential indicate a broader decline across the Southwestern Atlantic.

N equals two (times five). Exploring the effects of horse rewilding on five congeneric adult butterflies

Rewilding incomplete ecosystems by using ungulate megaherbivores represents a significant potential for sustainable management of habitats of declining species. Two xeric grasslands patches in the Podyjí National Park, Czech Republic, were rewilded by a feral horse breed, the Exmoor pony, in 2018. Before this in 2017, demography, mobility, and adult habitat use of five congeneric Melitaea butterflies co-occurring at the grasslands were investigated (Vodickova et al., J. Nature Conserv. 2019). In 2021, four seasons after the rewilding, we replicated the survey to assess the effects of the horse on the butterflies. Here, we compare the results of the two surveys and investigate changes in spatial patterns of adult distribution using Ripley’s K-functions.Total numbers of captures, and estimated population sizes, were consistently lower in 2021, with the largest drop for spring-flying M. cinxia. We cannot discern whether this was due to the cold 2021 spring, or due to reduction of grasses by the horse, possibly contributing to desiccation of M. cinxia host plants. Demographic parameters such as residency/longevity and capture probability changed only little. Mobility ranking among species remained identical, but within species, some mobility characteristics changed among years. Among early summer species, M. britomartis, second most abundant in 2017, switched to the first position with M. aurelia, and these two species displayed the most notable shift in adult habitat use between the two seasons. Short thorny shrubs avoided by the horse protect M. britomartis host plants; this threatened butterfly thus did not suffer from horse presence. M. athalia, a species of woodland edges, profited from decay of conifers caused by a series of dry years; and M. didyma, forming multiple generations, from increase of its host plant. Contrary to expectations, spatial distribution of most butterflies became more aggregated within rewilded pastures, probably due to regularities in home ranges use by the horses, which restructured the vegetation in a zonal, rather than patchy, way. A considerably larger areas should be rewilded by the herbivores to fully achieve the desired beneficial effects.

Are Urban Populations of a Gliding Mammal Vulnerable to Decline?

Small populations are at high risk of extinction, and they are likely to need management intervention. Successful management, however, relies on sufficient long-term demographic data in order to determine whether apparent declines are natural fluctuations or the product of threatening processes. In this study, we monitored a small urban population of squirrel gliders (Petaurus norfolcensis) in Queensland, Australia, over a 16 year period. A reference population in a larger forest patch was also studied in order to investigate whether its demographic trends were similar. Using mark-recapture data to generate estimates of apparent survival and population size, we found evidence of a decline within the small population but not in the reference population over the monitoring period. We suggest that the influence of multiple factors may have led to the decline, but, ultimately, that the genetic condition of the small population may be responsible. Understanding demographic trends is an important context for management interventions of small populations, although causes of decline need to be identified for successful management. The squirrel glider provides a useful case study for small urban populations and particularly for arboreal mammals.

Freshwater turtle populations as bioindicators following an oil spill: Delayed demographic changes reveal long-term impacts

Chronic, long-term impacts of oil spill disasters on wildlife often exceed short-term, highly visible mass mortalities and widespread oiling of individuals. Species with long lifespans, late maturation, and low recruitment rates are particularly vulnerable to long-term population-level impacts but can be useful as indicator species for ecosystem recovery. In 2010, one of the largest freshwater oil spills in the U.S. occurred in the Kalamazoo River, MI, when 3.2 million L of spilled oil impacted 56 km of river and associated wildlife. During cleanup and restoration efforts in 2010–2011, thousands of northern map turtles (Graptemys geographica) were captured, cleaned, and released. During 2019–2020 northern map turtles were captured to evaluate changes in the population size, demography, and size classes nine to ten years later.Population demography shifts occurred in the first few years after the spill in a species that otherwise exhibits minimal demographic fluctuation under “normal” conditions. In comparing demographic parameters at the time of the oil spill to values ∼ 10 years post-spill, a nearly 30% reduction in population size was detected, distribution of body size shifted to smaller males and females, and there was a shift in the population sex ratio between 2011 and 2019. There were also signals of failed recruitment in cohorts that would have hatched during the years immediately before and after the oil spill. These data suggest that beyond the direct mortality caused by the spill, declines in the estimated population size and shifts in the size distribution of northern map turtles are likely indicative of negative demographic impacts incurred following the 2010 oil spill and resulting cleanup.

The tumour is in the detail: Local phylogenetic, population and epidemiological dynamics of a transmissible cancer in Tasmanian devils.

Infectious diseases are a major threat for biodiversity conservation and can exert strong influence on wildlife population dynamics. Understanding the mechanisms driving infection rates and epidemic outcomes requires empirical data on the evolutionary trajectory of pathogens and host selective processes. Phylodynamics is a robust framework to understand the interaction of pathogen evolutionary processes with epidemiological dynamics, providing a powerful tool to evaluate disease control strategies. Tasmanian devils have been threatened by a fatal transmissible cancer, devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), for more than two decades. Here we employ a phylodynamic approach using tumour mitochondrial genomes to assess the role of tumour genetic diversity in epidemiological and population dynamics in a devil population subject to 12 years of intensive monitoring, since the beginning of the epidemic outbreak. DFTD molecular clock estimates of disease introduction mirrored observed estimates in the field, and DFTD genetic diversity was positively correlated with estimates of devil population size. However, prevalence and force of infection were the lowest when devil population size and tumour genetic diversity was the highest. This could be due to either differential virulence or transmissibility in tumour lineages or the development of host defence strategies against infection. Our results support the view that evolutionary processes and epidemiological trade-offs can drive host-pathogen coexistence, even when disease-induced mortality is extremely high. We highlight the importance of integrating pathogen and population evolutionary interactions to better understand long-term epidemic dynamics and evaluating disease control strategies.

A multidimensional study on population size, deadwood relationship and allometric variation of Lucanus cervus through citizen science

Abstract The European stag beetle, Lucanus cervus, is the largest saproxylic beetle and a flagship species whose populations should be monitored according to the EU Habitats Directive. Different studies have addressed its abundance and phenology, its relationship with deadwood, or the allometry of males related to different reproductive strategies. While monitoring efforts are complicated by the limited phenological window of adults (active at dusk during a few weeks), different innovative strategies have been tested in the last few years, with a promising role of citizen science. We tested the possibility of characterising key dimensions of a L. cervus population of an Italian Natural Park by involving a network of citizen scientists in a two‐week sampling campaign along standardised sampling transects, using a capture‐mark‐recapture (CMR) approach. We investigated its relationship with deadwood at different sites, estimated population size with a Bayesian analysis and characterised the allometric variation by assembling a dataset of morphological traits. With the participation of 41 volunteers, we collected and measured 651 individuals along four sampling transects. Our analyses uncovered a large L. cervus population (estimated to consist of almost 3400 individuals), characterising its relationship with deadwood availability in different areas, and the absence of the expected male allometry. Our results suggest that even a woodland composed by relatively young trees can host a large L. cervus populations if cut deadwood of suitable size is available. The engagement of volunteers, to which the results were presented, proved crucial to cost‐efficiently study different key ecological aspects of an insect species with a short phenology.

The first comprehensive population size estimations for the highly endangered largest diving beetle Dytiscus latissimus in Europe

Dytiscus latissimus (Coleoptera Dytiscidae) is an endangered diving beetle throughout its range. It is one of the two species of Dytiscidae listed in Annex II of the Habitats Directive, IUCN red list and in many national level legislations and therefore strictly protected. The conservation of endangered species first of all requires an assessment of their population size. Until now, a method has not been developed for estimating the size of D. latissimus populations. The article summarizes the results of two studies carried out independently in Germany and Latvia. Both studies were carried out in one water body used recapture method but with a different spatial placement of traps, which, according to our data, is an important factor in population estimation. We evaluated Jolly-Seber and Schnabel approaches of estimating aquatic beetle's populations and found that confidence intervals obtained by different methods in our research do not differ significantly, but combination of both models provide the most accurate estimates of population dynamics. As part of the study, we concluded that the populations of Dytiscus latissimus are relatively closed, so we accept that the Schnabel estimate shows more accurate data. By fixing the places of capture of each individual, it was found that females live mainly locally, and males actively move within the water body. This aspect indicates the advantage of the spatial placement of traps compared to the use of transects. The results of our study show a significantly higher number of both captured and recaptured males Such a sex ratio may indicate both a greater activity of males and differences in the sex ratio in the population. The study confirmed that environmental changes, such as the water level in a water body, can also significantly affect the result of a population assessment. In the frame of D. latissimus monitoring, to obtain an objective estimation of the species population size we recommend using four traps for each 100 m of water body shoreline with 4–8 censuses, dependently on the recapture rate.

Estimation of total population size of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) on Kerguelen and Crozet Archipelagos using very high-resolution satellite imagery

Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) play a pivotal role in the Southern Ocean as wide-ranging marine predators and major prey consumers within Southern Ocean marine ecosystems. Due to their circumpolar distribution and the remoteness of their habitat, large uncertainties remain about their total population sizes. This is especially true for elephant seal populations in the French Southern Territories in the southern Indian Ocean (i.e. Crozet and Kerguelen Archipelagos) as many breeding sites are inaccessible for ground censuses. Here, we present a simple and efficient approach for estimating the total elephant seal populations of the Kerguelen and Crozet Archipelagos by using very high-resolution satellite imagery (<1m resolution). Twenty-eight satellite images taken during the breeding season to count female elephant seals in inaccessible areas were used and complemented the traditional annual ground counts in accessible areas. For Kerguelen Island sectors likely to host colonies and where no satellite images were available for the breeding season, a statistical predictive model was built to estimate the most likely number of breeding females to be present on a given beach according to its physiographic characteristics. Our results show the reliability of using very high-resolution satellite images, a relatively low-cost platform, to count pinniped populations and provide the first estimation of the total southern elephant seal population for both the Kerguelen 347,995 (s e = 4,950) and Crozet 13,065 (s e = 169) Archipelagos. The combined total represents over 35% of the global elephant seal population with the Kerguelen stock being numerically equivalent to the South Georgia stock. In addition, we re-examined the population trends since the last mid-century for Kerguelen and over the last five decades for Crozet. The demographic trends of the southern Indian Ocean populations show marked growth over the last decade (5.1% and 1.6% annual growth rate for Crozet and Kerguelen respectively), particularly on Crozet where the elephant seal population has more than tripled.