Estimates Of Population Size Research Articles

Large-scale genetic surveys for main extant population of wild giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) reveals an urgent need of human management.

There are only six isolated living giant panda populations, and a comprehensive understanding of their genetic health status is crucial for the conservation of this vulnerable species. Liangshan Mountains is one of the main distribution areas of living giant pandas and is outside the newly established Giant panda national park. In this study, 971 giant panda fecal samples were collected in the heartland of Liangshan Mountains (Mabian Dafengding Nature Reserve: MB; Meigu Dafengding Nature Reserve: MG; and Heizhugou Nature Reserve: HZG). Microsatellite markers and mitochondrial D-loop sequences were used to estimate population size and genetic diversity. We identified 92 individuals (MB: 27, MG: 22, HZG: 43) from the three reserves. Our results showed that: (1) genetic diversity of three giant panda populations was moderate; (2) several loci deviated significantly from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and almost all these deviated loci showed significant heterozygote deficiencies and inbreeding; (3) three giant panda populations have substantial genetic differentiation with the most differentiation between MB and the two other populations; and (4) a large amount of giant panda feces outside the three reserves were found, implying the existence of protection gap. These results indicated that under stochastic events, the giant panda populations in Liangshan Mountains are at risk of genetic decline or extinction and urgent need of human management. This study revealed that high attention should be paid to the protection of these giant panda populations outside the Giant panda national park, to ensure their survival in their distribution areas.

Exposure to lambda-cyhalothrin and abamectin drives sublethal and transgenerational effects on the development and reproduction of Cydia pomonella

The codling moth Cydia pomonella (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is a major invasive pest of pome fruits and walnuts worldwide. Lambda-cyhalothrin (LCT) and abamectin (AM) have been frequently used in C. pomonella control, but control of this pest is very difficult because shortly after hatching, larvae of this insect bore tunnels and hide inside host plant fruit. In this study, a simulated field spray bioassay method was developed against neonate larvae of C. pomonella and concentration-response bioassays were conducted to evaluate the susceptibility of the neonate larvae to LCT and AM. Exposure of neonate larvae to sublethal concentration (LC30) of LCT or AM significantly reduced the survival rate of larvae (4th and 5th instars), lowered the mean weight of larvae and pupae, and decreased the daily maximal number of eggs laid and the total number of eggs laid (fecundity) per female. The sublethal effects, including reduced body mass, mean fecundity and net reproductive rate, extended mean generation time, and shortened oviposition period, were also found in transgenerational offspring. Furthermore, the transgenerational maternal effects were more obvious for AM than LCT, in comparison to the control. Additionally, the estimated population size was decreased by exposure to LC30 of LCT and AM, and the observed reduction of fecundity and population size within and across generations was likely the result of the downregulation of the reproduction-related vitellogenin gene (CpVg) after exposure to LC30 of LCT and AM. These results provide a better understanding of the overall effects of LCT and AM on C. pomonella and the transgenerational effects which should be taken into consideration when using insecticides in order to control C. pomonella.

Estimating number of European eel (Anguilla anguilla) individuals using environmental DNA and haplotype count in small rivers.

Knowledge about population genetic data is important for effective conservation management. Genetic research traditionally requires sampling directly from the organism, for example tissue, which can be challenging, time-consuming, and harmful to the animal. Environmental DNA (eDNA) approaches offer a way to sample genetic material noninvasively. In attempts to estimate population size of aquatic species using eDNA, researchers have found positive correlations between biomass and eDNA concentrations, but the approach is debated because of variations in the production and degrading of DNA in water. Recently, a more accurate eDNA-approach has emerged, focusing on the genomic differences between individuals. In this study, we used eDNA from water samples to estimate the number of European eel (Anguilla anguilla) individuals by examining haplotypes in the mitochondrial D-loop region, both in a closed aquatic environment with 10 eels of known haplotypes and in three rivers. The results revealed that it was possible to find every eel haplotype in the eDNA sample collected from the closed environment. We also found 13 unique haplotypes in the eDNA samples from the three rivers, which probably represent 13 eel individuals. This means that it is possible to obtain genomic information from European eel eDNA in water; however, more research is needed to develop the approach into a possible future tool for population quantification.

Viability of side-scan sonar to enumerate Paddlefish, a large pelagic freshwater fish, in rivers and reservoirs

Recreational-grade side-scan sonar (SSS) has become an invaluable tool for inland fisheries, particularly when characterizing underwater habitat, but it is being increasingly used for enumerating large-bodied (> 1 m total length [TL]) aquatic fauna. We used SSS in river and reservoir environments to evaluate methods for identifying and counting Paddlefish Polyodon spathula, a large pelagic planktivore of recreational and economic importance that can exceed 2 m in length and weigh over 70 kg. We assessed accuracy and precision among readers to identify Paddlefish by assigning confidence scores (1–3; with 3 being more confident) to sonar images of a ballistics-gel filled fiberglass replica Paddlefish. Readers varied in their confidence scores for the replica Paddlefish and no reader could identify the target beyond 25 m from the transducer. Afterwards, we used SSS to survey several kilometers of a reservoir during summer residency and a large river during springtime spawning migrations. Two readers counted Paddlefish images in the SSS recordings and we estimated population size in the surveyed area with distance sampling. In the reservoir, the number of Paddlefish counted ranged from 172 to 184. In the river, the number of Paddlefish counted ranged from 165 to 617. The exponential model of distance was most-supported for detection in both environments, except there was support for a half-norm distribution for one reader in the river. In the reservoir, abundance estimates were statistically similar between readers at approximately 1500 (7/ha) in the total scanned area. In the river, similar abundance estimates were obtained with the half-norm model from one reader compared to the exponential model of the other reader, resulting in approximately 1500 individuals (30/ha) in the surveyed area. The application of SSS to count Paddlefish has some clear advantages to traditional methods, such as gill netting, and can be done at multiple times of the year. Distance sampling methods compensated for differences in counts among readers, indicating distance sampling can produce similar abundance estimates even when variation in counts exists among readers.

A pilot study to estimate the population size of endangered Galápagos marine iguanas using drones

BackgroundLarge-scale species monitoring remains a significant conservation challenge. Given the ongoing biodiversity crisis, the need for reliable and efficient methods has never been greater. Drone-based techniques have much to offer in this regard: they allow access to otherwise unreachable areas and enable the rapid collection of non-invasive field data. Herein, we describe the development of a drone-based method for the estimation of population size in Galápagos marine iguanas, Amblyrhynchus cristatus. As a large-bodied lizard that occurs in open coastal terrain, this endemic species is an ideal candidate for drone surveys. Almost all Amblyrhynchus subspecies are Endangered or Critically Endangered according to the IUCN yet since several colonies are inaccessible by foot, ground- based methods are unable to address the critical need for better census data. In order to establish a drone-based approach to estimate population size of marine iguanas, we surveyed in January 2021 four colonies on three focal islands (San Cristobal, Santa Fe and Espanola) using three techniques: simple counts (the standard method currently used by conservation managers), capture mark-resight (CMR), and drone-based counts. The surveys were performed within a 4-day window under similar ambient conditions. We then compared the approaches in terms of feasibility, outcome and effort.ResultsThe highest population-size estimates were obtained using CMR, and drone-based counts were on average 14% closer to CMR estimates—and 17–35% higher—than those obtained by simple counts. In terms of field-time, drone-surveys can be faster than simple counts, but image analyses were highly time consuming.ConclusionThough CMR likely produces superior estimates, it cannot be performed in most cases due to lack of access and knowledge regarding colonies. Drone-based surveys outperformed ground-based simple counts in terms of outcome and this approach is therefore suitable for use across the range of the species. Moreover, the aerial approach is currently the only credible solution for accessing and surveying marine iguanas at highly remote colonies. The application of citizen science and other aids such as machine learning will alleviate the issue regarding time needed to analyze the images.

Genetic diversity, structure, and effective population size of an endangered, endemic hoary bat, 'ōpe'ape'a, across the Hawaiian Islands.

Island bat species are disproportionately at risk of extinction, and Hawai'i's only native terrestrial land mammal, the Hawaiian hoary bat (Lasiurus semotus) locally known as 'ōpe'ape'a, is no exception. To effectively manage this bat species with an archipelago-wide distribution, it is important to determine the population size on each island and connectivity between islands. We used 18 nuclear microsatellite loci and one mitochondrial gene from 339 individuals collected from 1988-2020 to evaluate genetic diversity, population structure and estimate effective population size on the Islands of Hawai'i, Maui, O'ahu, and Kaua'i. Genetic differentiation occurred between Hawai'i and Maui, both of which were differentiated from O'ahu and Kaua'i. The population on Maui presents the greatest per-island genetic diversity, consistent with their hypothesized status as the original founding population. A signature of isolation by distance was detected between islands, with contemporary migration analyses indicating limited gene flow in recent generations, and male-biased sex dispersal within Maui. Historical and long-term estimates of genetic effective population sizes were generally larger than contemporary estimates, although estimates of contemporary genetic effective population size lacked upper bounds in confidence intervals for Hawai'i and Kaua'i. Contemporary genetic effective population sizes were smaller on O'ahu and Maui. We also detected evidence of past bottlenecks on all islands with the exception of Hawai'i. Our study provides population-level estimates for the genetic diversity and geographic structure of 'ōpe'ape'a, that could be used by agencies tasked with wildlife conservation in Hawai'i.

Photo-identification comparison of humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) flukes from Antarctic Area IV with fluke catalogues from East Africa, Western Australia and Eastern Australia

Early ‘Discovery mark’ data together with recent photo-identification, acoustic, genetic and satellite-radio tag data revealed linkages between humpback whales migrating from breeding grounds (C) off East Africa and the Area III feeding area, from Western Australian breeding grounds (D) and the Antarctic Area IV feeding area and the East Australian breeding grounds (E1) and Antarctic Area V feeding area. These data also revealed low levels of intermingling between (E1) and (D) humpback whales in the Antarctic Area IV feeding area consistent with these being separate populations. Greenpeace photographed the ventral tail flukes of 30 individual humpback whales in the Antarctic Area IV feeding area (70°E–130°E) from 2 to 9 January 2008, between 62°47’S and 64°14’S latitude and 80°00’E and 112°57’E longitude. Comparisons of the Antarctic Area IV Greenpeace fluke catalogue (n = 30) with existing reconciled fluke catalogues from East Africa (n = 842), Western Australia (n = 1,558) and Eastern Australia (n = 1,964), yielded no photo-identification matches. An analysis of the frequencies of whales seen and not seen in Antarctica, East Africa, Western Australia and Eastern Australia relative to the frequencies expected to have been seen and not seen, based on the estimated population sizes and the sizes of the catalogues, provided evidence that the Antarctic whales photographed are from a different population to the East African and East Australian populations. There was weak evidence supporting the hypothesis that the Antarctic whales are from the Western Australian population but insufficient data were available to determine a clear outcome. A comparison of the Antarctic Area IV Greenpeace catalogue (n = 30) with other existing African, Indian Ocean, Western and Eastern Australian and/or Antarctic catalogues, together with increased sampling across the humpback whale feeding season in Antarctica and along the Western and Eastern Australian coastline during their winter migration, is likely to provide further evidence of the migratory destination of these humpback whales. It will also add to our limited knowledge of the extent of population overlap within the Antarctic Area III, IV and V feeding areas.

Brown bear body patches are temporally stable and represent a unique individual visual signature

Patches of color may be used to communicate to conspecifics, mainly in species showing uniform coloration, and may (a) help individuals maintain visual contact, such as between mothers and their young; (b) function as signals of subordination or to frighten rivals; (c) warn conspecifics of approaching predators; and/or (d) signal reproductive condition, health, or genetic quality to potential mates. Intraspecific communication represents one of the major evolutionary forces responsible for the coloration of body parts, but the meaning of many of these signals is still unclear. One of the first steps to understanding whether fur marks have a role in social communication is to understand whether such body patches are stable over time (i.e., whether they represent a unique visual signature for every individual). During the period 1999–2021, we recorded yearly pictures of 7 female (mean no. of monitoring years per bear = 13.6, standard deviation [SD] = 4.6; range = 9–22 yr) and 6 male (mean no. of monitoring years per bear = 9.3, SD = 4.3; range = 5–15 yr) brown bears (Ursus arctos) in the Cantabrian Mountains (NW Spain). We show that body mark shapes are stable over time and, because of their uniqueness, might represent a distinctive signature of individuals. Brown bear body marks may act as multicomponent signals, where different features of a given mark may inform about different aspects of the bearer or act as back-ups. For example, a quality-signaling capacity does not preclude the same mark from being used in other functions at the same time, such as individual recognition. Noninvasive techniques helpful for identifying individuals have been developed for estimating population size, reproductive rates, and the survival of several carnivore species. Fur marks that are stable over time can thus be useful in field research (e.g., body marks that are persistent and do not vary over time are an important tool in longitudinal photographic capture–recapture studies).

Appraising the Genetic Makeup of an Allochthonous Southern Pike Population: An Opportunity to Predict the Evolution of Introgressive Hybridization in Isolated Populations?

Biological invasions are a major threat to the conservation of biodiversity, as invasive species affect native biota through competition, predation, pathogen introduction, habitat alteration, and hybridisation. The present study focuses on a southern pike population, Esox cisalpinus (Teleostei: Esocidae), that has been introduced outside the species' native range. Using microsatellite markers, this study's objective was to gather baseline genetic information and assess the presence of hybrids between this species and E. lucius in the introduced population. The resulting estimates of genetic diversity and effective population size are comparable to those observed in the species' native range. Although different methods yield contrasting and uncertain evidence regarding introgressive hybridization, the presence of late-generation hybrids cannot be completely ruled out. Large numbers of breeders as well as multiple introductions of genetically divergent cohorts and introgressive hybridisation may explain the high genetic diversity of this recently introduced southern pike population. The present study issues a warning that the conservation of southern pike' introgressive hybridisation between northern and southern pike might be underestimated. The genetic information gathered herein may unravel the origin, number of introduction events, and evolutionary trajectory of the introduced population. This information may help us understand the evolution of introgressive hybridisation in the southern pike's native areas.

Point count offsets for estimating population sizes of north American landbirds

Bird monitoring in North America over several decades has generated many open databases, housing millions of structured and semi‐structured bird observations. These provide the opportunity to estimate bird densities and population sizes, once variation in factors such as underlying field methods, timing, land cover, proximity to roads, and uneven spatial coverage are accounted for. To facilitate integration across databases, we introduce NA‐POPS: Point Count Offsets for Population Sizes of North American Landbirds. NA‐POPS is a large‐scale, multi‐agency project providing an open‐source database of detectability functions for all North American landbirds. These detectability functions allow the integration of data from across disparate survey methods using the QPAD approach, which considers the probability of detection (q) and availability (p) of birds in relation to area (a) and density (d). To date, NA‐POPS has compiled over 7.1 million data points spanning 292 projects from across North America, and produced detectability functions for 338 landbird species. Here, we describe the methods used to curate these data and generate these detectability functions, as well as the open‐access nature of the resulting database.

Density of Axis Deer in Texas: Management Implications for Native White-tailed Deer and Associated Habitats

Abstract Axis deer Axis axis have been widely introduced to new geographic ranges, and in the United States, free-ranging axis deer have become well established in the Edwards Plateau ecoregion as well as other portions of Texas. However, no estimates of axis deer population density nor size have been conducted since 1994. It is hypothesized that axis deer on the Edwards Plateau are potentially competing with native white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus for food, space, and habitat resources, and causing damage to important riparian habitats. Our goal was to estimate regional densities of axis deer and white-tailed deer, and provide insight about the potential impacts axis deer may have on native wildlife and their habitats. Estimated using distance sampling techniques in 2018 and 2019, average axis deer density was 19.7 (95% CI: 14.1–25.6) axis deer/km2 compared with 23.0 (95% CI: 18.2–27.5) white-tailed deer/km2, and axis deer densities ranged from 16.9 to 171.0/km2 among eight different land cover types in Kimble County, Texas, with a county-wide estimate of 61,078 (95% CI: 30,407–100,369) axis deer. Axis deer densities were greatest in riparian land cover types, and they selected for two riparian land cover types and upland grasslands. Axis deer population estimates clearly indicate their population size has increased substantially since introduction to Texas in the 1930s. Population management of axis deer is warranted to limit impacts to native wildlife from potential habitat usurpation, or damage to riparian vegetation communities, soil, and water quality.

Estimating population size: The importance of model and estimator choice.

We consider estimator and model choice when estimating abundance from capture-recapture data. Our work is motivated by a mark-recapture distance sampling example, where model and estimator choice led to unexpectedly large disparities in the estimates. To understand these differences, we look at three estimation strategies (maximum likelihood estimation, conditional maximum likelihood estimation, and Bayesian estimation) for both binomial and Poisson models. We show that assuming the data have a binomial or multinomial distribution introduces implicit and unnoticed assumptions that are not addressed when fitting with maximum likelihood estimation. This can have an important effect in finite samples, particularly if our data arise from multiple populations. We relate these results to those of restricted maximum likelihood in linear mixed effectsmodels.

Telemetry-Based Assessment of Home Range to Estimate the Abundance of Invasive Green Monkeys on St. Kitts

Green monkeys (Chlorocebus sabaeus) have been a “pest” species on the Caribbean island of St. Kitts for hundreds of years, and data on their abundance are crucial to inform effective management strategies. To estimate population size, we present the first use of radio telemetry tracking technology combined with home range estimation and habitat analysis. We use detailed tracking information collected from 10 monkeys from nine different troops in four different biotic areas. For each tracked animal, bootstrapped Brownian bridge home range estimates were calculated from GPS positional data (90% with replacement) to quantify space use by troops. The home range area estimates for the different biotic areas were used to estimate the total troop number across the whole island based on land use cover. We modelled an estimate of population size accounting for variation in space use by troops, variation in troop number by biotic area, and uncertainty around number of individuals in a troop. Our results, which we will continue to refine with additional data, show that the 174 km2 island is home to between 690 and 929 monkey troops, or between 22,000 and 37,000 green monkeys.

Correction to: Using genetic analysis to estimate population size, sex ratio, and social organization in an Asian elephant population in conflict with humans in Alur, southern India

Correction to: Using genetic analysis to estimate population size, sex ratio, and social organization in an Asian elephant population in conflict with humans in Alur, southern India

Mapping the number of female sex workers in countries across sub-Saharan Africa

Female sex workers (FSW) are affected by individual, network, and structural risks, making them vulnerable to poor health and well-being. HIV prevention strategies and local community-based programs can rely on estimates of the number of FSW to plan and implement differentiated HIV prevention and treatment services. However, there are limited systematic assessments of the number of FSW in countries across sub-Saharan Africa to facilitate the identification of prevention and treatment gaps. Here we provide estimated population sizes of FSW and the corresponding uncertainties for almost all sub-national areas in sub-Saharan Africa. We first performed a literature review of FSW size estimates and then developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to synthesize these size estimates, resolving competing size estimates in the same area and producing estimates in areas without any data. We estimated that there are 2.5 million (95% uncertainty interval 1.9 to 3.1) FSW aged 15 to 49 in sub-Saharan Africa. This represents a proportion as percent of all women of childbearing age of 1.1% (95% uncertainty interval 0.8 to 1.3%). The analyses further revealed substantial differences between the proportions of FSW among adult females at the sub-national level and studied the relationship between these heterogeneities and many predictors. Ultimately, achieving the vision of no new HIV infections by 2030 necessitates dramatic improvements in our delivery of evidence-based services for sex workers across sub-Saharan Africa.

Estimating population size of red‐footed boobies using distance sampling and drone photography

AbstractThe red‐footed booby (Sula sula) is one of the most common pantropical seabird species, but its populations have been declining in the Caribbean region and elsewhere. We used distance sampling from point‐counts to estimate population size of red‐footed boobies in Mona Island, Puerto Rico, USA, before and during the breeding season in 2019. We compared results from early morning and early night surveys to determine the best survey time given that many individuals are foraging at sea during the daylight hours but not at night. We also examined the suitability of drone photography to survey active nests (a measure of breeding pairs) and compared it to point count and transect survey data. Point count surveys show that an estimated 6,130 birds occupied the colony, which is more than double previous estimates for Mona Island. Our results also showed that to avoid underestimates, red‐footed booby colonies are best surveyed at night as they yield higher bird densities than daytime surveys. For the same reason, daytime photographic surveys with a drone underestimated population size compared to nighttime point‐count surveys. However, drones were more effective than ground surveys in detecting active nests, and thus breeding pairs, which provides a better estimate of the resident population of a colony. We recommend that nighttime surveys are tailored to site‐specific conditions to improve estimates of red‐footed boobies, while drones can save significant effort and time in monitoring numbers of active nests in the remote and rugged islands where red‐footed boobies typically nest.

Relationship between age and method of population estimation and the impact of changes in range-size maps on the IUCN Red List assessments of birds

Summary Population size is one component of several criteria in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species (Red List). For these criteria, the quality of the population estimation can therefore have significant impact on the assessed status. To evaluate population estimate quality, we selected 473 species of land birds from the Americas considered by the Red List to be “Critically Endangered”, “Endangered”, or “Vulnerable” at the end of 2021, of which 414 (88%) had a population size estimate. For these species, we determined the age of the estimate and how the population estimate was derived, grouped into eight categories. For 87 species (18%) the population estimate was derived by sampling a small area and extrapolating to the entire range of the species; for these, the population size estimate depends on the estimate of range size. For the subset of 22 of these with complete data, we compared range size estimates obtained from maps published by IUCN with maps produced using the methods of Huang et al. (2021) to see how range map differences could affect population size estimates and therefore Red List status. Potentially half of these species (11 of 22) could change status using the new maps. More than one-third of the population size estimates (38%, 161 species with a date of population estimate) were made in 2000 or earlier. A majority of the species, 63% (300 of 473 species), do not have population size estimates made using a scientific sampling method, although the majority since 2010 have been made using a sampling method, reflecting an effort by Red List assessors to include more scientific information. We encourage the ornithological community to work to obtain current, high quality population size and range estimates to improve the quality of Red List status assessments.

A two‐sex integrated population model reveals intersexual differences in life history strategies in Cooper's hawks

AbstractIntegrated population models (IPMs) combine population counts with demographic data to improve the precision of estimates of population size and demographic rates. IPMs can also provide information on demographic parameters for which data are lacking (e.g., immigration) if other sufficient information is available. IPMs often use demographic data from one sex, usually females, implicitly assuming the chosen sex adequately represents the species' life history; for highly size‐dimorphic raptors, that assumption may not hold true. We developed a two‐sex IPM for a New Mexico population of the highly size‐dimorphic Cooper's hawk (Accipiter cooperii) from 2011 to 2020 and compared estimates of life history characteristics between sexes. Because we had data to directly estimate sex‐ and age‐specific probabilities of breeding, fecundity, survival, brood sex ratios, and emigration rates, we could indirectly estimate age‐specific immigration rates for both sexes. Our two‐sex IPM revealed that population growth was most strongly associated with increased immigration and decreased first‐year (FY) emigration in females and with after‐first‐year (AFY) survival in males. Most males that were recruited as new breeders in our study area were AFY residents, whereas most female recruits were AFY immigrants. All females that fledged in our study area and survived until their first breeding season bred in their first year, whereas only 3% of surviving FY males bred. We found evidence of density dependence in the survival of AFY males (r = −0.11, 95% credible interval = −0.36 to −0.03) and in AFY female immigration (r = −0.17, 95% credible interval = −0.27 to −0.12). Our findings reveal that male and female Cooper's hawks differ in their response to population density, and in how they contribute to population growth. Thus, sexual differences in vital rates can be an important consideration in raptor population models.

Phenology, population size, and factors influencing variation in density of an endangered butterfly, the mottled duskywing Erynnis martialis

Understanding the natural history and ecology of endangered species is critical for developing effective, evidence-based conservation and management plans. The mottled duskywingErynnismartialisis a skipper butterfly inhabiting oak savanna, oak woodlands, alvars, and tallgrass prairie habitats containing their host plants,Ceanothusspp. Listed as endangered in Canada, few populations persist in Ontario and Manitoba, but there are no formal estimates of population size or what influences spatial variation in adult density, and we have limited knowledge of phenology. To address these knowledge gaps, we conducted spatially explicit mark-re-sighting over multiple years at 2 of the largest known populations in Ontario (specific locations withheld). Population sizes at Site A were estimated to be 1159 individuals (confidence limit [CL] = 845-1598) in 2021 and at Site B, 626 individuals (CL = 466-851) in 2020 and 2227 individuals (CL = 1110-4463) in 2021. Most (81%) re-sightings occurred within 5 d of marking, suggesting that adults likely live less than 1 wk. High densities of adults were generally associated with highCeanothusspp. abundance and open canopy, but relationships varied by site and year. Peak flight across sites and years ranged from 5-13 June. We recommend that existing and prospective habitat managers prevent succession with brush-cutting and/or prescribed burns, specifically in areas of abundantCeanothusspp. This work provides valuable information for future management and recovery efforts, including planned translocations to both historically occupied and newly restored sites.

Heterogeneity in song rates in the Collared Flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis) explained with the availability parameter in generalized N-mixture models: Its importance for abundance estimates in avian aural counts

Binomial N-mixture models are commonly applied to estimate abundance unaffected by imperfect detection, but are known to be sensitive to violations of assumptions. One of the model's assumptions, the independence of detections has rarely been tested. It requires that during a survey, detection of one individual does not affect detection of another individual. This assumption can be frequently violated in passerine birds, which exhibit territorial behaviour by singing, since neighbouring individuals are likely to motivate each other to vocalize, leading to non-independence in singing activity and in the following detection rate. Here, we explored this phenomenon with the generalized, binomial version of the N-mixture model, where detection probability is decomposed into availability probability φ – which can be interpreted as per capita song rate or the probability of vocalising – and actual detection probability p, given vocalisations take place. Using repeated counts of the Collared Flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis) as a case study, and treating the maximum observed counts Cmaxi at a site i as an explanatory covariate for φ, we showed that per capita song rates increased with observed counts at a site. Hence, if song rates vary due to local abundance, including Cmaxi as an explanatory variable for song rate addressed with φ, helps to explain this variation (which otherwise goes undetected) and improves inferences under the model. This had strong effects on the resulting abundance estimates: if this relationship was ignored in the models, total estimated population sizes were consequently lower by as much as 22–27%, compared to when this effect was included. Since it is likely that song rates may commonly be density-dependent in birds manifesting territorial behaviours by singing, further tests addressing violations of independence assumptions in these models are needed. As suggested by Kéry and Royle (2016), despite some form of circularity likely being involved, modelling heterogeneity in the detection process with the help of Cmaxi in standard N-mixture models (which, given availability, conflate availability with detection in a single parameter) should be applicable as well.