Slip Rate Estimates Research Articles

Which Fault Threatens Me Most? Bridging the Gap Between Geologic Data-Providers and Seismic Risk Practitioners

The aim of the Fault2SHA European Seismological Commission Working Group Central Apennines laboratory is to enhance the use of geological data in fault-based seismic hazard and risk assessment and to promote synergies between data providers (earthquake geologists), end-users and decision-makers. Here we use the Fault2SHA Central Apennines Database where geologic data are provided in the form of characterized fault traces, grouped into faults and main faults, with individual slip rate estimates. The proposed methodology first derives slip rate profiles for each main fault. Main faults are then divided into distinct sections of length comparable to the seismogenic depth to allow consideration of variable slip rates and the exploration of multi-fault ruptures in the computations. The methodology further allows exploration of epistemic uncertainties documented in the database (e.g., main fault definition, slip rates) as well as additional parameters required to characterize the seismogenic potential of fault sources (e.g., 3D fault geometries). To illustrate the power of the methodology, in this paper we consider only one branch of the uncertainties affecting each step of the computation procedure. The resulting hazard and typological risk maps allow both data providers and end-users 1) to visualize the faults that threaten specific localities the most, 2) to appreciate the density of observations used for the computation of slip rate profiles, and 3) interrogate the degree of confidence on the fault parameters documented in the database (activity and location certainty). Finally, closing the loop, the methodology highlights priorities for future geological investigations in terms of where improvements in the density of data within the database would lead to the greatest decreases in epistemic uncertainties in the hazard and risk calculations. Key to this new generation of fault-based seismic hazard and risk methodology are the user-friendly open source codes provided with this publication, documenting, step-by-step, the link between the geological database and the relative contribution of each section to seismic hazard and risk at specific localities.

The relation between short- and long-term deformation in actively deforming plate boundary zones.

Satellite-based measuring systems are making it possible to monitor deformation of the Earth's surface at a high spatial resolution over periods of several decades and a significant fraction of the seismic cycle. It is widely assumed that this short-term deformation directly reflects the long-term pattern of crustal deformation, although modified in detail by local elastic effects related to locking on individual faults. This way, short-term deformation is often jointly inverted with long-term estimates of fault slip rates, or even stress, over periods of 10 s to 100 s kyrs. Here, I examine the relation between these two timescales of deformation for subduction, continental shortening and rifting tectonic settings, with examples from the active New Zealand and Central Andean plate boundary zone. I show that the relation is inherently non-unique, and simple models of locking on a deep-seated megathrust or decollement, or mantle flow, provide excellent fits to the short-term observations without requiring any information about the geometry and rate of surface faulting. The short-term deformation, in these settings at least, cannot be used to determine the behaviour of individual faults, but instead places constraints on the forces that drive deformation. Thus, there is a fundamental difference between the stress loading and stress relief parts of the earthquake cycle, with failure determined by dynamical rather than kinematic constraints; the same stress loading can give rise to widely different modes of long-term deformation, depending on the strength and rheology of the deforming zone, and the role of gravitational stresses. The process of slip on networks of active faults may have an intermediate timescale of kyrs to 10 s kyrs, where individual faults fail piecemeal without any characteristic behaviour. Physics-based dynamical models of short-term deformation may be the best way to make full use of the increasing quality of this type of data in the future. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Understanding earthquakes using the geological record'.

Geomorphological Evidence of Active Faulting in Low Seismicity Regions—Examples From the Valley of Gobi Lakes, Southern Mongolia

Active intraplate deformation as a far-field effect of the India-Eurasia convergence has led to four Mw∼8 earthquakes in western and southern Mongolia in the past century. Palaeoseismological and morphotectonic studies have shown that these earthquakes are characteristic events along transpressive fault systems with cumulative offsets. The tectonically active Gobi Altai and Hangay mountains are separated by the seismically quiescent Valley of Gobi Lakes, which consists of major perennial rivers draining into endorheic lakes. Despite the scarcity of recorded earthquakes, Quaternary deposits in the Valley of Gobi Lakes are crosscut by multiple fault scarps with significant, landscape-altering displacements. To assess past earthquakes and the potential seismic hazard of this area, we apply remote sensing, tectono-morphometric techniques and cosmogenic nuclide dating to estimate the amount of deformation the faults in the Valley of Gobi Lakes are accommodating, and to determine the effect of these faults on local landscape evolution. The Tuyn Gol (gol = Mongolian for river) is crosscut by four E-W to NE-SW trending fault scarps that display variable fault kinematics due to scarp orientation differences relative to a stable NE-SW principle stress direction. Mapping of the >40–90 km long Valley of Gobi Lake faults shows that they can accommodate M ∼ 7 earthquakes. Offset measurements of the Tuyn Gol deposits allow Middle Pleistocene to modern vertical slip rate estimates and M ∼ 7 earthquake recurrence intervals of 0.012 ± 0.007–0.13 ± 0.07 mm/yr and 5.24 ± 2.61–81.57 ± 46.05 kyr, respectively. Cumulative vertical displacement amounts to 0.27 ± 0.08 mm/yr, which is similar to that of major tectonic structures such as the Bogd fault in the Gobi Altai. This implies that the total active deformation accommodated by southern Mongolian faults may be larger than previously expected and distributed across more faults between the Hangay and the (Gobi) Altai mountain ranges. Geomorphological observations and surface exposure dating indicate that the Tuyn Gol drainage system developed over four to five 100 kyr climate cycles, during which active deformation played an important role in drainage reorganization. Our results demonstrate the dominant role of tectonics on local landscape dynamics, indicating the importance of studying regional geomorphology to adequately estimate the earthquake potential of faults that were considered inactive.

Quantitative Estimate of the Long-Term Slip Rate of the Normal Fault Responsible for the 2009 L’Aquila Earthquake (Mw 6.1) (Central Italy) Through Tectonic Geomorphology Approaches

Quantitative Estimate of the Long-Term Slip Rate of the Normal Fault Responsible for the 2009 L’Aquila Earthquake (Mw 6.1) (Central Italy) Through Tectonic Geomorphology Approaches

Quantitative Estimate of the Long-Term Slip Rate of the Normal Fault Responsible for the 2009 L’Aquila Earthquake (Mw 6.1) (Central Italy) Through Tectonic Geomorphology Approaches

Quantitative Estimate of the Long-Term Slip Rate of the Normal Fault Responsible for the 2009 L’Aquila Earthquake (Mw 6.1) (Central Italy) Through Tectonic Geomorphology Approaches

MSD-Based NMPC Aircraft Anti-Skid Brake Control Method Considering Runway Variation

In this paper, a nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) method based on mixed slip-deceleration (MSD) with runway identification is proposed to prevent the aircraft wheels from locking up and improve the braking performance under time-varied runway conditions. The MSD control algorithm reduces the dependence of control performance on slip rate estimation accuracy and retains a good slip rate control performance. The proposed NMPC control method guarantees optimal braking torque on each wheel by individually controlling the slip rate of each wheel near the optimal point. A nonlinear brake control model based on aircraft ground taxiing dynamics is derived. In this model, the tire-runway friction coefficient–slip rate model under different runway conditions and vertical force variation caused by brake are considered. A runway identification algorithm based on friction coefficient and friction coefficient slope is used to identify the real-time runway status, based on which the prediction model and optimization function of the proposed control scheme are modified. The wheel slip stable zone and the system maximum brake torque are regarded as time-domain constraints of the NMPC for safety considerations and physical limitations. The control objectives of the NMPC include longitudinal deceleration, braking performance, and preservation of crew comfort. The proposed MSD-based NMPC controller is verified by a tricycle-geared aircraft model using MATLAB/Simulink software. Simulation results of different control schemes on a specific mixed runway show good performances of the proposed control method. The proposed control method provides a new efficient solution for aircraft wheel braking on variable runway.

Seismic Hazard Analyses From Geologic and Geomorphic Data: Current and Future Challenges

AbstractThe loss of life and economic consequences caused by several recent earthquakes demonstrate the importance of developing seismically safe building codes. The quantification of seismic hazard, which describes the likelihood of earthquake‐induced ground shaking at a site for a specific time period, is a key component of a building code, as it helps ensure that structures are designed to withstand the ground shaking caused by a potential earthquake. Geologic or geomorphic data represent important inputs to the most common seismic hazard model (probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, or PSHAs), as they can characterize the magnitudes, locations, and types of earthquakes that occur over long intervals (thousands of years). However, several recent earthquakes and a growing body of work challenge many of our previous assumptions about the characteristics of active faults and their rupture behavior, and these complexities can be challenging to accurately represent in PSHA. Here, we discuss several of the outstanding challenges surrounding geologic and geomorphic data sets frequently used in PSHA. The topics we discuss include how to utilize paleoseismic records in fault slip rate estimates, understanding and modeling earthquake recurrence and fault complexity, the development and use of fault‐scaling relationships, and characterizing enigmatic faults using topography. Making headway in these areas will likely require advancements in our understanding of the fundamental science behind processes such as fault triggering, complex rupture, earthquake clustering, and fault scaling. Progress in these topics will be important if we wish to accurately capture earthquake behavior in a variety of settings using PSHA in the future.

A geophysical study of the Castle Mountain Fault, southcentral Alaska

The Castle Mountain Fault (CMF) lies less than 50 km from Alaska's most populous city of Anchorage and represents an important seismic hazard to the Anchorage-Matanuska-Susitna Valley region in southcentral Alaska. The character of seismicity varies along the CMF. Although the western CMF (between 149.5° and 151° W) shows evidence for Late Pleistocene or Holocene reverse and dextral movement, it has been seismically quiet over the past ~50 years of local seismic network operation. In contrast, the CMF east of 149.5° W is associated with considerable background seismicity, including the Mw 5.81984 strike-slip Sutton earthquake. We have used gravity and magnetic data, constrained with results of previous seismic reflection and seismic tomography studies, to model subsurface structure of the CMF in an effort to determine what may control the variation in its seismic behavior. Our models are consistent with a component of high angle reverse faulting (northwest side up, dip~85°to 87°) that appears to have vertically offset Late Mesozoic rocks 2000 to 2500 m. Lack of data coverage precludes an estimate of its total strike-slip motion. Holocene movement on the CMF appears to be associated with a region where both sides of the fault consist of sedimentary rocks as defined by a gravity and magnetic low. If most of the vertical offset has occurred since the Miocene in response to collision of the Yakutat microplate with North America, then our results are comparable to recent thermochronological and paleoseismic estimates of vertical slip rates. Subduction of the edge of the Yakutat microplate appears to spatially influence seismic behavior along the CMF while the occurrence of the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake has also temporally affected local seismicity.

Geomorphic and paleoseismological evidence of active Kachchh Mainland Fault, Kachchh, India

The present work pertains to the stratigraphic evidences found during paleoseismic investigations on the trench walls opened across the Kachchh Mainland Fault (KMF). High-resolution satellite (CARTOSAT-1 DEM) data is used for mapping fault traces and carried out paleoseismic studies to identify paleo-earthquakes. We undertook geomorphological and paleoseismological investigations along the central segment of the KMF zone with the aim of estimating long-term slip rate and recurrence interval of strong earthquakes. Two N-S trenches were excavated across the E-W striking branches of the KMF, named as KMF-1 and KMF-2, revealing that the KMF is dipping towards the north. Detailed studies of the trench walls and optical dating of event horizons have confirmed four earthquakes occurred in the KMF zone between 5600 and 1000 years. The earthquake event I occurred between 5000 and 5500 years; event II occurred between 4000 and 4600 years. The event III occurred between 2000 and 2900 years, and the event IV occurred between 1023 and 1259 AD and 02 BC to 427 AD. Our studies further indicate that the central KMF zone is probably undergoing a quiescent period of ~ 1000 years accumulating the stress in the system to generate a large earthquake. The uplifted and truncated fluvial strath terrace deposits resulting from the Holocene displacements are preserved along the hanging wall block of the KMF. Dividing the elevation of the bedrock strath by their ages yields estimates of the vertical uplift rate of 0.37 to 1.48 mm/year of the hanging wall block of central KMF. With the help of displaced sedimentary units and optical ages, we estimated an average slip rate of 0.28 mm/year and uplift rate of 0.13 mm/year along KMF-1 over an interval of 1800–4000 years. However, the estimated slip rate along KMF-2 is 0.30 mm/year and the observed uplift rate is 0.17 mm/year. The results obtained from the trench investigations along the KMF not only help in understanding the dynamics of KMF but also aid seismic hazard evaluation in the Western Peninsular India.

A geometric model to estimate slip rates from terrace rotation above an offshore, listric thrust fault, Kaikōura, New Zealand

The Kaikōura Peninsula lies at the transition from subduction to continental collision at the southern end of the Hikurangi subduction system. This study uses a 2012 lidar survey over the Kaikōura Peninsula to re-map a flight of four uplifted Late Pleistocene marine terraces at high resolution. The lidar shows that the terraces are being progressively tilted landwards in a manner consistent with listric thrust faulting offshore. The fault, known as the Kaikōura Peninsula Fault, dips shallowly at c.30° to the northwest at depth and probably truncates the Seaward segment of the Hope Fault in the footwall of the Jordan Thrust. Geometric analysis of the tilt, using ages based on previous dating and a regional sea level curve, suggests that slip rates on the Kaikōura Peninsula Fault have ranged between 2.3 ± 1.5 mm/yr and 4.1 ± 1.3 mm/yr over the Late Pleistocene. The elevations of Late Holocene fringing beaches track regional sea level changes, apart from a departure indicating a single uplift event (penultimate earthquake) in the late 18th to earliest 19th century (1702–1838 CE), followed by uplift in the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake. The slip rate calculated from beach uplift, including the Kaikōura earthquake, is consistent with longer term rates. The accumulation of the slip over only c.220 years following >2000 years of quiescence suggests that the offshore thrust and associated faults exhibit clustered behavior, possibly as a result of keystone faulting.

Drive control strategy of two-wheel independent drive electric vehicle

According to the advantages of two-wheel independent drive electric vehicle that the torque and rotational speed of the drive wheel can be easily measured, a driving control strategy of driving antiskid control and torque coordination control is proposed based on road surface identification slip rate and adhesion coefficient. The principle of road surface identification is given. According to the signals of wheel speed sensor, lateral acceleration, longitudinal acceleration and torque sensor, the wheel slip ratio, road surface adhesion coefficient, vertical force and longitudinal force are calculated. Combined with μ-S function curve proposed by Burckhardt et al., the road surface adhesion coefficient and optimal slip ratio are identified. Driving antiskid control strategy adopts PID control technology based on road surface identification of optimal slip rate, peak adhesion coefficient and optimal slip rate, which mainly includes four parts: establishment of wheel stress model of two-wheel independently driven electric vehicle, approximate calculation of slip rate and road adhesion coefficient, optimal slip rate estimation based on fuzzy control and PID controller design based on optimal slip rate. The torque coordination control adopts PID control method based on ideal yaw rate.

Robust Variable Structure Anti-Slip Control Method of a Distributed Drive Electric Vehicle

Slip rate control is important in improving vehicle stability and driving efficiency. In this paper, a robust slip rate control system is designed for distributed drive electric vehicles that consists of two slip rate estimators for multi-driving conditions, a vehicle speed estimator, and an anti-windup robust variable structure slip rate tracking controller. Because there is no driven wheel in a four-in-wheel-motor distributed drive electric vehicle, the estimators for small and large slip rates are designed based on dynamic and kinematic methods, respectively, which can switch according to the slip conditions. The convergence of the estimation error is discussed with the Lyapunov stability law and is less than 2% under the condition of acceleration on a low-friction road. The slip rate tracking controller is designed based on the sliding mode control law and the proportional-integral (PI) control method to handle model nonlinearity, modelling and estimation errors, and disturbances and to control the input chattering and saturation. The asymptotic stability of the tracking error is proven by Lyapunov theory. A joint control variable composed of the wheel angular acceleration and slip rate is designed to improve the robustness of the controller against the slip rate estimation error. Simulations and experiments under various conditions are performed to verify the proposed anti-slip control method. The results show that compared with a distributed drive vehicle without a slip rate controller, the controlled vehicle can prevent serious wheel skid on low-adhesion roads and improve the driving performance.

Surface Deformation and Influence of Hydrological Mass Over Himalaya and North India Revealed From a Decade of Continuous GPS and GRACE Observations

AbstractThe India‐Eurasia collision, driven by tectonic forcing, is modulated by nontectonic forcing allied to seasonal variations in the neighboring regions. To decipher the ground deformation in response to hydrological mass variations of the Himalaya and North India, we analyzed continuous Global Positioning System (cGPS) observations from 50 sites together with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data for the period 2004–2015. Vertical components of surface deformation derived from GPS and GRACE show moderate to high‐level amplitude correlation with a slope value of 0.76 and a level of phase delay from ±25° to ±30°. The average weighted root‐mean‐square reduction (WRMS) of 17.72% suggests the prominence of hydrological mass variations particularly over the sub‐Himalaya and Indo‐Gangetic Plain (IGP). GPS‐derived vertical deformation after correcting the hydrological effects utilizing GRACE observations suggests that the sub‐Himalaya and IGP are undergoing subsidence and the surrounding areas show uplift. In addition to the tectonic and nontectonic forcings, an unsustainable consumption of groundwater associated to irrigation and other anthropogenic uses influence the subsidence rate in the IGP and sub‐Himalaya. Further, 2‐D elastic dislocation modeling suggests that GRACE correction to the GPS vertical velocity causes a reduction in the subsurface slip rate estimation over the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) system by 12.06% and improves the chi‐square misfit by 20.32%.

Characteristic slip distribution and earthquake recurrence along the eastern Altyn Tagh fault revealed by high-resolution topographic data

AbstractThe seismic cycle model is roughly constrained by limited offset data sets from the eastern Altyn Tagh fault with a low slip rate. The recent availability of high-resolution topographic data from the eastern Altyn Tagh fault provides an opportunity to obtain distinctly improved quantitative, dense measurements of fault offsets. In this paper, we used airborne light detection and ranging data and unmanned aircraft vehicle photogrammetry to evaluate fault offsets. To better constrain the large earthquake recurrence model, we acquired dense data sets of fault displacements using the LaDiCaoz_v2.1 software. A total of 321 offset measurements below 30 m highlight two new observations: (1) surface-slip of the most recent earthquake and multiple events exhibit both short-wavelength (m-scale) and long-wavelength (km-scale) variability; and (2) synthesis of offset frequency analysis and coefficient of variation indicate regular slip events with ∼6 m slip increment on fault segments to the west of the Shulehe triple junction. The distribution of offsets and paleoseismological data reveal that the eastern Altyn Tagh fault exhibits characteristic slip behavior, with the characteristic slip of ∼6 m and a recurrence period ranging from 1170 to 3790 years. Paleoearthquake recurrence intervals and slip increments yield mean horizontal slip-rate estimates of 2.1–2.6 mm/yr for fault segments to the west of the Shulehe triple junction. Assuming a 10 km rupture depth and a 30 GPa shear modulus, we estimated a characteristic slip event moment magnitude (Mw) of ∼7.6. Finally, we discuss the interaction mechanism between Altyn Tagh fault (strike fault) and the NW-trending thrust faults (reverse faults) that caused the sudden decrease of sinistral slip rate at the Shulehe and Subei triple junctions; our results support the eastward “lateral slip extrusion” model.

Geodynamic importance of the strike-slip faults at the eastern part of the Anatolian Scholle: Inferences from the uplift and slip rate of the Malatya Fault (Malatya-Ovacık Fault Zone, eastern Turkey)

Controversy remains over when present-day configuration of the Anatolia boundary faults came into existence, and the issue of what are the driving forces of the Anatolian westward motion. The NW-striking dextral and NE-striking sinistral second-order strike-slip faults at the eastern part of the Anatolian Scholle play a crucial role within these long-lasting discussions, and the NE-striking sinistral Malatya–Ovacık Fault Zone (MOFZ) is particularly important in this ongoing debate. Although the MOFZ is defined as one of the intra-plate structures, it has been proposed that it was an inter-plate fault between the Anatolia and Arabian plates from the latest Miocene to mid-Pliocene and that it has been inactive during the last ca. 3.5 Ma. This study provides results from the first morphochronology-based uplift and slip rate estimates on the Malatya Fault within the southern section of the MOFZ. The cosmogenic isochron burial and cosmogenic depth burial of ages from the sinistrally offset Tohma River remnant terraces enabled us to calculate 1.0 ± 0.01 and 1.12 ± 0.01 mm/yr minimum and maximum horizontal slip rates, respectively, for the last 1.4 ± 0.1 Ma. Furthermore, we conclude that the 96 ± 11 m/Ma mean uplift has been driven by the Malatya Fault. Integrated interpretation of the findings of this study and available data on both the MOFZ and other strike-slip faults at the eastern part of the Anatolian Scholle support the hypothesis that they are plate-boundary related active deformation belts that originated from paleotectonic structures during the tectonic escape of the Anatolian Scholle.

Fault Slip and Exhumation History of the Willard Thrust Sheet, Sevier Fold‐Thrust Belt, Utah: Relations to Wedge Propagation, Hinterland Uplift, and Foreland Basin Sedimentation

AbstractZircon (U‐Th)/He (ZHe) and zircon fission track thermochronometric data for 47 samples spanning the areally extensive Willard thrust sheet within the western part of the Sevier fold‐thrust belt record enhanced cooling and exhumation during major thrust slip spanning approximately 125–90 Ma. ZHe and zircon fission track age‐paleodepth patterns along structural transects and age‐distance relations along stratigraphic‐parallel traverses, combined with thermo‐kinematic modeling, constrain the fault slip history, with estimated slip rates of ~1 km/Myr from 125 to 105 Ma, increasing to ~3 km/Myr from 105 to 92 Ma, and then decreasing as major slip was transferred onto eastern thrusts. Exhumation was concentrated during motion up thrust ramps with estimated erosion rates of ~0.1 to 0.3 km/Myr. Local cooling ages of approximately 160–150 Ma may record a period of regional erosion, or alternatively an early phase of limited (<10 km) thrust slip. Propagation of the Sevier wedge front and major thrust slip during the late Early to mid‐Cretaceous were synchronous with increasing subsidence and deposition of thick synorogenic strata in the foreland, crustal thickening in the hinterland, growing igneous activity in the Sierran magmatic arc, and increasing plate convergence rates. Along‐strike, other parts of the Cordilleran retroarc fold‐thrust belt also experienced major shortening during the late Early to mid‐Cretaceous, following a period of earlier Cretaceous quiescence. Late Jurassic shortening was concentrated nearer the arc, and thus mostly in the hinterland at the latitude of northern Utah, related to width and location of the passive‐margin sedimentary wedge relative to the plate margin.

Chlorine-36∕beryllium-10 burial dating of alluvial fan sediments associated with the Mission Creek strand of the San Andreas Fault system, California, USA

Abstract. We apply cosmogenic-nuclide burial dating using the 36Cl-in-K-feldspar∕10Be-in-quartz pair in fluvially transported granitoid clasts to determine the age of alluvial sediment displaced by the Mission Creek strand of the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Because the half-lives of 36Cl and 10Be are more different than those of the commonly used 26Al∕10Be pair, 36Cl∕10Be burial dating should be applicable to sediments in the range ca. 0.2–0.5 Ma, which is too young to be accurately dated with the 26Al∕10Be pair, and should be more precise for Middle and Late Pleistocene sediments in general. However, using the 36Cl∕10Be pair is more complex because the 36Cl∕10Be production ratio varies with the chemical composition of each sample. We use 36Cl∕10Be measurements in samples of granodiorite exposed at the surface at present to validate calculations of the 36Cl∕10Be production ratio in this lithology, and then we apply this information to determine the burial age of alluvial clasts of the same lithology. This particular field area presents the additional obstacle to burial dating (which is not specific to the 36Cl∕10Be pair, but would apply to any) that most buried alluvial clasts are derived from extremely rapidly eroding parts of the San Bernardino Mountains and have correspondingly extremely low nuclide concentrations, the majority of which most likely derive from nucleogenic (for 36Cl) and post-burial production. Although this precludes accurate burial dating of many clasts, data from surface and subsurface samples with higher nuclide concentrations, originating from lower-erosion-rate source areas, show that the age of upper Cabezon Formation alluvium is 260 ka. This is consistent with stratigraphic age constraints as well as independent estimates of long-term fault slip rates, and it highlights the potential usefulness of the 36Cl∕10Be pair for dating Upper and Middle Pleistocene clastic sediments.

A unique ~12 ka subaerial record of rift-transform triple-junction tectonics, NE Iceland

In northern Iceland the European-North American plate boundary is broad and complex but includes a remarkable subaerial triple-junction intersection between the Husavik-Flatey Fault (HFF) dextral transform and rifting in the Northern Volcanic Zone. Fortuitously, the triple junction occurs in a sheet of ~12 ka pahoehoe lavas; a tabula rasa recording innumerable fault features displayed in exquisite detail. High-resolution drone imagery, coupled with 120 field measurements of fault slip directions and opening amounts, made possible the mapping and analysis of this detail and, importantly, enabled recognition and exclusion of potentially misleading primary deformation features associated with emplacement of the lavas. Rift-transform interactions in this natural laboratory have remained spatially stable throughout post-glacial time, although with transform-affinity faults reactivated to accommodate rift extension and transform ‘encroachment’ into the rift domain. First-order en-echelon Riedel fault complexes are recognised, linked by transpressional faulting and compressional strike-slip relay ramps, as well as second-order R shears, R’ and P shears, and previously undescribed R’ Riedel-in-Riedel relationships. A pahoehoe flow front offset along a first-order Riedel fault complex records slip at ~3.8 mm a−1, which may be consistent with the published GPS-based current slip-rate estimate of ~6.8 mm a−1 across the HFF as a whole.

SHERIFS: Open‐Source Code for Computing Earthquake Rates in Fault Systems and Constructing Hazard Models

Modeling the seismic potential of active faults and their associated epistemic uncertainties is a fundamental step of probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment (PSHA). Seismic hazard and earthquake rate in fault systems (SHERIFS) is an open-source python code that builds hazard models including earthquake ruptures involving several fault sections or fault-to-fault (FtF) ruptures. It contains user-friendly tools to calculate the annual rate of FtF ruptures in a fault system based on the slip-rate estimates and accounting for associated background seismicity. SHERIFS applies a forward incremental approach following three rules: (1) the FtF ruptures allowed in the fault system are defined as input by the user and explored randomly, (2) the magnitude-frequency distribution of the modeled seismicity in the fault system must follow an imposed shape, and (3) the slip-rate budget attributed to each fault section must be preserved in the calculation if the first two rules allow it. Indeed, in some cases, a fraction of the slip-rate budget must be considered as being spent in non-mainshock events such as creep or postseismic slip. Background seismicity rates are defined by the hazard modeler as the ratio of seismicity occurring on the modelled faults for different ranges of magnitude. Given a coherent set of input hypotheses, SHERIFS allows end users to build the seismic-hazard fault model thanks to an interactive user-friendly interface. It aims to help interactions between field data collectors and hazard modelers to explore and weight epistemic uncertainties affecting the input hypotheses. To do so, SHERIFS includes tools to compare modeled earthquake rates with the available local data (earthquake catalog and paleoseismological data). This comparison can be used to weigh different hypotheses explored in a logic tree and discard the hypotheses that are not in agreement with the data. SHERIFS's outputs are in a format that can be used directly as inputs for PSHA in the OpenQuake engine (Pagani et al., 2014).

Holocene seismic activity of the Priene–Sazlı Fault revealed by cosmogenic 36Cl,Western Anatolia, Turkey

Fault scarps in carbonates are structures well suited to 36Cl analysis of paleoearthquakes to reconstruct the seismic history using cosmogenic 36Cl. In this study, we measured cosmogenic 36Cl concentrations in 117 samples along one of the active faults in Western Anatolia, the Priene?Sazli Fault scarp, to reconstruct the age of paleoearthquakes along with their slip amounts, beyond the available historical and instrumental archives. Our results indicate four periods of high seismic activity on the Priene?Sazli Fault since the early Holocene at 8.1 ± 2.0, 6.0 ± 1.5, 3.7 ± 0.9, and 2.2 ± 0.5 ka, with slips of 3.4 ± 0.5, 1.5 ± 0.2, 1.4 ± 0.2, and 1.5 ± 0.2 m, respectively. These ruptures mostly occurred as clusters of earthquakes with magnitudes of up to 6.7?7.0 during the Holocene. Estimated slip rates on the fault are greater than 0.3, 0.7, 0.6, and 1.0 mm/year from the oldest to the youngest modeled earthquakes. In addition, the long-term slip rate is 0.7 mm/year. This means that the Priene?Sazli fault can be considered as a low to moderately seismogenic fault, based upon the recurrence interval.