Child Mortality Estimation Research Articles

Estimation of maternal and child mortality one year after user-fee elimination: an impact evaluation and modelling study in Burkina Faso.

ObjectiveTo estimate the impact on maternal and child mortality after eliminating user fees for pregnant women and for children less than five years of age in Burkina Faso.MethodsTwo health districts in the Sahel region eliminated user fees for facility deliveries and curative consultations for children in September 2008. To compare health-care coverage before and after this change, we used interrupted time series, propensity scores and three independent data sources. Coverage changes were assessed for four variables: women giving birth at a health facility, and children aged 1 to 59 months receiving oral rehydration salts for diarrhoea, antibiotics for pneumonia and artemesinin for malaria. We modelled the mortality impact of coverage changes in the Lives Saved Tool using several scenarios.FindingsCoverage increased for all variables, however, the increase was not statistically significant for antibiotics for pneumonia. For estimated mortality impact, the intervention saved approximately 593 (estimate range 168–1060) children’s lives in both districts during the first year. This lowered the estimated under-five mortality rate from 235 deaths per 1000 live births in 2008 to 210 (estimate range 189–228) in 2009. If a similar intervention were to be introduced nationwide, 14 000 to 19 000 (estimate range 4000–28 000) children's lives could be saved annually. Maternal mortality showed a modest decrease in all scenarios.ConclusionIn this setting, eliminating user fees increased use of health services and may have contributed to reduced child mortality.

Forecasting Rate of Decline in Infant Mortality in South Asia Using Random Walk Approximation

The Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) of United Nations had set the target of reducing high rates of under-five and infant mortality (IMR) by two thirds to be reached by 2015 using 1990 as the benchmark year. By the availability of time series data on IMR from United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME, 2012), led by UNICEF, WHO, the World Bank and United Nations, it has become possible to track the rate of progress towards this goal. Using the UN IGME 2012 data for all the South Asian Countries, I have considered three specific issues in this article. (1) How does the South Asian Countries fair in reducing the IMR towards this MDG target? Although the time series data exhibit declining trends for all the countries in South Asia, to what extent such trends are attributed by their average annual progress trajectory over the period for which data are available? (2) Whether deterministic or stochastic trend can attribute the IMR decline in South Asian countries and what alternative time series models be used to forecast the decline in Infant Mortality? Can we find a serviceable representative model for the entire region? (3) In case, a satisfactory representative model for the entire region exists, how do we assess the forecast accuracy for this model and quantify the propagation of forecast error?

Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.

Data Resource Profile: Countdown to 2015: Maternal, Newborn and Child Survival

The Countdown to 2015 country profiles present, in one place, comprehensive evidence to enable an assessment of a country’s progress in improving reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health. Profiles are available for each of the 75 countries that together account for more than 95% of all maternal and child deaths. The two-page profiles are updated approximately every 2 years with new data and analyses. Profile data include demographics, mortality, nutritional status, coverage of evidence-based interventions, within-countries inequalities in coverage, measures of health system functionality, supportive policies and financing indicators. The main sources of data for the coverage, nutritional status and equity indicators are the US Agency for Internal Development (USAID)-supported demographic and health surveys and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF)-supported multiple indicator cluster surveys. Data on coverage are first summarized and checked for quality by UNICEF, and data on equity in intervention coverage are summarized and checked by the Federal University of Pelotas. The mortality estimates are developed by the Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation and the Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-Agency Group. The financing data are abstracted from datasets maintained by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Assistance Committee, and the policies and health systems data are derived from a special compilation prepared by the World Health Organization. Associated country profiles include equity-specific profiles and one-page profiles prepared annually that report on the 11 indicators selected by the Commission on Information and Accountability for Women’s and Children’s Health.

Antibiotic effectiveness and child survival

The latest estimates of child mortality show that although the global mortality rate in children younger than 5 years has roughly halved, from 90 deaths per 1000 live births in 1990 to 48 per 1000 live births in 2012, an estimated 6·6 million children died in 2012.1

Consensus on kangaroo mother care acceleration

On Oct 21–22, 2013, stakeholders in newborn health convened in Istanbul, Turkey, to discuss how to accelerate the implementation of kangaroo mother care (KMC) globally. Focused attention on newborn deaths, which now account for 44% of under-5 mortality, 1 UNICEFWHOThe World BankUNLevels and trends in child mortality, report 2013. Estimates developed by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. United Nations Children's Fund, New York2013 Google Scholar is required to accelerate progress toward Millennium Development Goal 4 (to reduce child mortality by two-thirds) and beyond. KMC has been proven to reduce newborn mortality, but only a very small proportion of newborns who could benefit from KMC receive it. The Istanbul convening was assembled to accelerate the uptake of this life-saving intervention.

Public health information needs in districts

Public health information needs in districts

Progress toward global reduction in under-five mortality: a bootstrap analysis of uncertainty in Millennium Development Goal 4 estimates.

Millennium Development Goal 4 calls for an annual rate of reduction (ARR) of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) of 4.4% between 1990 and 2015. Progress is measured through the point estimates of the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME). To facilitate evidence-based conclusions about progress toward the goal, we assessed the uncertainty in the estimates arising from sampling errors and biases in data series and the inferior quality of specific data series. We implemented a bootstrap procedure to construct 90% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the U5MR and ARR to complement the UN IGME estimates. We constructed the bounds for all countries without a generalized HIV epidemic, where a standard estimation approach is carried out (174 countries). In the bootstrap procedure, potential biases in levels and trends of data series of different source types were accounted for. There is considerable uncertainty about the U5MR, particularly for high mortality countries and in recent years. Among 86 countries with a U5MR of at least 40 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990, the median width of the UI, relative to the U5MR level, was 19% for 1990 and 48% for 2011, with the increase in uncertainty due to more limited data availability. The median absolute width of the 90% UI for the ARR from 1990 to 2011 was 2.2%. Although the ARR point estimate for all high mortality countries was greater than zero, for eight of them uncertainty included the possibility of no improvement between 1990 and 2011. For 13 countries, it is deemed likely that the ARR from 1990 to 2011 exceeded 4.4%. In light of the upcoming evaluation of Millennium Development Goal 4 in 2015, uncertainty assessments need to be taken into account to avoid unwarranted conclusions about countries' progress based on limited data.

Reduction in child mortality in Niger: a Countdown to 2015 country case study

The Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) is to reduce by two-thirds the mortality rate of children younger than 5 years, between 1990 and 2015. The 2012 Countdown profile shows that Niger has achieved far greater reductions in child mortality and gains in coverage for interventions in child survival than neighbouring countries in west Africa. Countdown therefore invited Niger to do an in-depth analysis of their child survival programme between 1998 and 2009. We developed new estimates of child and neonatal mortality for 1998-2009 using a 2010 household survey. We recalculated coverage indicators using eight nationally-representative surveys for that period, and documented maternal, newborn, and child health programmes and policies since 1995. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate the child lives saved in 2009. The mortality rate in children younger than 5 years declined significantly from 226 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% CI 207-246) in 1998 to 128 deaths (117-140) in 2009, an annual rate of decline of 5·1%. Stunting prevalence decreased slightly in children aged 24-35 months, and wasting declined by about 50% with the largest decreases in children younger than 2 years. Coverage increased greatly for most child survival interventions in this period. Results from LiST show that about 59,000 lives were saved in children younger than 5 years in 2009, attributable to the introduction of insecticide-treated bednets (25%); improvements in nutritional status (19%); vitamin A supplementation (9%); treatment of diarrhoea with oral rehydration salts and zinc, and careseeking for fever, malaria, or childhood pneumonia (22%); and vaccinations (11%). Government policies supporting universal access, provision of free health care for pregnant women and children, and decentralised nutrition programmes permitted Niger to decrease child mortality at a pace that exceeds that needed to meet the MDG 4. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; World Bank; Governments of Australia, Canada, Norway, Sweden, and the UK; and UNICEF.

Child Mortality Estimation: Appropriate Time Periods for Child Mortality Estimates from Full Birth Histories

Child mortality estimates from complete birth histories from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) surveys and similar surveys are a chief source of data used to track Millennium Development Goal 4, which aims for a reduction of under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Based on the expected sample sizes when the DHS program commenced, the estimates are usually based on 5-y time periods. Recent surveys have had larger sample sizes than early surveys, and here we aimed to explore the benefits of using shorter time periods than 5 y for estimation. We also explore the benefit of changing the estimation procedure from being based on years before the survey, i.e., measured with reference to the date of the interview for each woman, to being based on calendar years. Jackknife variance estimation was used to calculate standard errors for 207 DHS surveys in order to explore to what extent the large samples in recent surveys can be used to produce estimates based on 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-y periods. We also recalculated the estimates for the surveys into calendar-year-based estimates. We demonstrate that estimation for 1-y periods is indeed possible for many recent surveys. The reduction in bias achieved using 1-y periods and calendar-year-based estimation is worthwhile in some cases. In particular, it allows tracking of the effects of particular events such as droughts, epidemics, or conflict on child mortality in a way not possible with previous estimation procedures. Recommendations to use estimation for short time periods when possible and to use calendar-year-based estimation were adopted in the United Nations 2011 estimates of child mortality.

Child Mortality Estimation: A Comparison of UN IGME and IHME Estimates of Levels and Trends in Under-Five Mortality Rates and Deaths

Millennium Development Goal 4 calls for a reduction in the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. In 2011, estimates were published by the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). The difference in the U5MR estimates produced by the two research groups was more than 10% and corresponded to more than ten deaths per 1,000 live births for 10% of all countries in 1990 and 20% of all countries in 2010, which can lead to conflicting conclusions with respect to countries' progress. To understand what caused the differences in estimates, we summarised differences in underlying data and modelling approaches used by the two groups, and analysed their effects. UN IGME and IHME estimation approaches differ with respect to the construction of databases and the pre-processing of data, trend fitting procedures, inclusion and exclusion of data series, and additional adjustment procedures. Large differences in U5MR estimates between the UN IGME and the IHME exist in countries with conflicts or civil unrest, countries with high HIV prevalence, and countries where the underlying data used to derive the estimates were different, especially if the exclusion of data series differed between the two research groups. A decomposition of the differences showed that differences in estimates due to using different data (inclusion of data series and pre-processing of data) are on average larger than the differences due to using different trend fitting methods. Substantial country-specific differences between UN IGME and IHME estimates for U5MR and the number of under-five deaths exist because of various differences in data and modelling assumptions used. Often differences are illustrative of the lack of reliable data and likely to decrease as more data become available. Improved transparency on methods and data used will help to improve understanding about the drivers of the differences. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Child Mortality Estimation: A Global Overview of Infant and Child Mortality Age Patterns in Light of New Empirical Data

The under-five mortality rate (the probability of dying between birth and age 5 y, also denoted in the literature as U5MR and (5)q(0)) is a key indicator of child health, but it conceals important information about how this mortality is distributed by age. One important distinction is what amount of the under-five mortality occurs below age 1 y ((1)q(0)) versus at age 1 y and above ((4)q(1)). However, in many country settings, this distinction is often difficult to establish because of various types of data errors. As a result, it is common practice to resort to model age patterns to estimate (1)q(0) and (4)q(1) on the basis of an observed value of (5)q(0). The most commonly used model age patterns for this purpose are the Coale and Demeny and the United Nations systems. Since the development of these models, many additional sources of data for under-five mortality have become available, making possible a general evaluation of age patterns of infant and child mortality. In this paper, we do a systematic comparison of empirical values of (1)q(0) and (4)q(1) against model age patterns, and discuss whether observed deviations are due to data errors, or whether they reflect true epidemiological patterns not addressed in existing model life tables. We used vital registration data from the Human Mortality Database, sample survey data from the World Fertility Survey and Demographic and Health Surveys programs, and data from Demographic Surveillance Systems. For each of these data sources, we compared empirical combinations of (1)q(0) and (4)q(1) against combinations provided by Coale and Demeny and United Nations model age patterns. We found that, on the whole, empirical values fall relatively well within the range provided by these models, but we also found important exceptions. Sub-Saharan African countries have a tendency to exhibit high values of (4)q(1) relative to (1)q(0), a pattern that appears to arise for the most part from true epidemiological causes. While this pattern is well known in the case of western Africa, we observed that it is more widespread than commonly thought. We also found that the emergence of HIV/AIDS, while perhaps contributing to high relative values of (4)q(1), does not appear to have substantially modified preexisting patterns. We also identified a small number of countries scattered in different parts of the world that exhibit unusually low values of (4)q(1) relative to (1)q(0), a pattern that is not likely to arise merely from data errors. Finally, we illustrate that it is relatively common for populations to experience changes in age patterns of infant and child mortality as they experience a decline in mortality. Existing models do not appear to cover the entire range of epidemiological situations and trajectories. Therefore, model life tables should be used with caution for estimating (1)q(0) and (4)q(1) on the basis of (5)q(0). Moreover, this model-based estimation procedure assumes that the input value of (5)q(0) is correct, which may not always be warranted, especially in the case of survey data. A systematic evaluation of data errors in sample surveys and their impact on age patterns of (1)q(0) and (4)q(1) is urgently needed, along with the development of model age patterns of under-five mortality that would cover a wider range of epidemiological situations and trajectories. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Child Mortality Estimation: Methods Used to Adjust for Bias due to AIDS in Estimating Trends in Under-Five Mortality

In most low- and middle-income countries, child mortality is estimated from data provided by mothers concerning the survival of their children using methods that assume no correlation between the mortality risks of the mothers and those of their children. This assumption is not valid for populations with generalized HIV epidemics, however, and in this review, we show how the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) uses a cohort component projection model to correct for AIDS-related biases in the data used to estimate trends in under-five mortality. In this model, births in a given year are identified as occurring to HIV-positive or HIV-negative mothers, the lives of the infants and mothers are projected forward using survivorship probabilities to estimate survivors at the time of a given survey, and the extent to which excess mortality of children goes unreported because of the deaths of HIV-infected mothers prior to the survey is calculated. Estimates from the survey for past periods can then be adjusted for the estimated bias. The extent of the AIDS-related bias depends crucially on the dynamics of the HIV epidemic, on the length of time before the survey that the estimates are made for, and on the underlying non-AIDS child mortality. This simple methodology (which does not take into account the use of effective antiretroviral interventions) gives results qualitatively similar to those of other studies.

Child Mortality Estimation: Estimating Sex Differences in Childhood Mortality since the 1970s

Producing estimates of infant (under age 1 y), child (age 1-4 y), and under-five (under age 5 y) mortality rates disaggregated by sex is complicated by problems with data quality and availability. Interpretation of sex differences requires nuanced analysis: girls have a biological advantage against many causes of death that may be eroded if they are disadvantaged in access to resources. Earlier studies found that girls in some regions were not experiencing the survival advantage expected at given levels of mortality. In this paper I generate new estimates of sex differences for the 1970s to the 2000s. Simple fitting methods were applied to male-to-female ratios of infant and under-five mortality rates from vital registration, surveys, and censuses. The sex ratio estimates were used to disaggregate published series of both-sexes mortality rates that were based on a larger number of sources. In many developing countries, I found that sex ratios of mortality have changed in the same direction as historically occurred in developed countries, but typically had a lower degree of female advantage for a given level of mortality. Regional average sex ratios weighted by numbers of births were found to be highly influenced by China and India, the only countries where both infant mortality and overall under-five mortality were estimated to be higher for girls than for boys in the 2000s. For the less developed regions (comprising Africa, Asia excluding Japan, Latin America/Caribbean, and Oceania excluding Australia and New Zealand), on average, boys' under-five mortality in the 2000s was about 2% higher than girls'. A number of countries were found to still experience higher mortality for girls than boys in the 1-4-y age group, with concentrations in southern Asia, northern Africa/western Asia, and western Africa. In the more developed regions (comprising Europe, northern America, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand), I found that the sex ratio of infant mortality peaked in the 1970s or 1980s and declined thereafter. The methods developed here pinpoint regions and countries where sex differences in mortality merit closer examination to ensure that both sexes are sharing equally in access to health resources. Further study of the distribution of causes of death in different settings will aid the interpretation of differences in survival for boys and girls. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Child Mortality Estimation: Accelerated Progress in Reducing Global Child Mortality, 1990–2010

Monitoring development indicators has become a central interest of international agencies and countries for tracking progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. In this review, which also provides an introduction to a collection of articles, we describe the methodology used by the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation to track country-specific changes in the key indicator for Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), the decline of the under-five mortality rate (the probability of dying between birth and age five, also denoted in the literature as U5MR and (5)q(0)). We review how relevant data from civil registration, sample registration, population censuses, and household surveys are compiled and assessed for United Nations member states, and how time series regression models are fitted to all points of acceptable quality to establish the trends in U5MR from which infant and neonatal mortality rates are generally derived. The application of this methodology indicates that, between 1990 and 2010, the global U5MR fell from 88 to 57 deaths per 1,000 live births, and the annual number of under-five deaths fell from 12.0 to 7.6 million. Although the annual rate of reduction in the U5MR accelerated from 1.9% for the period 1990-2000 to 2.5% for the period 2000-2010, it remains well below the 4.4% annual rate of reduction required to achieve the MDG 4 goal of a two-thirds reduction in U5MR from its 1990 value by 2015. Thus, despite progress in reducing child mortality worldwide, and an encouraging increase in the pace of decline over the last two decades, MDG 4 will not be met without greatly increasing efforts to reduce child deaths.

Under-five mortality differentials in urban EastAfrica: a study of three capital cities

Studies have suggested that on average the big cities of East Africa enjoy more favorable living conditions compared to peri-urban and rural areas of this region. The current study aimed at examining under-five mortality differentials in the capital cities of East Africa and to establish whether there are substantial differences in infant and child mortality estimates in Nairobi, Dar-es-Salaam and Kampala. Using data from population and housing censuses of East Africa during the 1990s, the study examines differentials in under-five mortality in Nairobi, Kampala and Dar-es-Salaam. Analyses using a count-data regression model focused on some of the issues relevant in understanding urban differences in under-five mortality in East Africa. The findings suggest substantial variations in under-five mortality risks, with Nairobi experiencing lower infant and child mortality risks than either Kampala or Dar-es-Salaam. The key recommendation made from this study is that programmes aimed at improving the living conditions of urban dwellers should be promoted and that any future studies should focus on the living conditions among the poor urban dwellers and how these conditions interface with the health of the population.Keywords: Under-five mortality; differentials; urban; capital cities; East AfricaRésumé Des études ont suggéré qu'en moyenne les grandes villes d'Afrique de l'est bénéficient des conditions de vie plus favorables par rapport à péri - zones urbaines et rurales de cette région. L'étude en cours visant à examiner la vie des écarts de mortalité dans les capitales de l'Afrique de l'est et pour savoir si il y a des différences substantielles dans les nourrissons et les estimations de la mortalité infantile dans Nairobi, Dar - es - Salaam et Kampala. Données à l'aide de la population et le logement des recensements de l'Afrique de l'est dans les années 1990, l'étude examine les écarts dans la vie mortalité à Nairobi, Kampala et Dar-es-Salaam. Analyse à l'aide d'un modèle de régression de comptage-données axé sur certaines des questions pertinentes dans la compréhension des différences urbains dans la vie de la mortalité en Afrique de l'est. Les conclusions suggèrent des variations importantes dans la vie des risques de mortalité, à Nairobi, rencontre de réduction des risques mortalité infantile et à Dar-es-Salaam ou à Kampala . T recommandation clé il est fabriquée à partir de cette étude est que les programmes visant à améliorer les conditions de vie des citadins devraient être encouragés et que toutes les futures études devraient se concentrer sur les conditions de vie parmi les citadins pauvres et comment ces conditions interfacent avec la santé de la population.Mots-clés : chez mortalité ; diffêrences ; urbain ; capital villes ; l'Afrique

Estimating the under-five mortality rate using a bayesian hierarchical time series model.

BackgroundMillennium Development Goal 4 calls for a reduction in the under-five mortality rate by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015, which corresponds to an annual rate of decline of 4.4%. The United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation estimates under-five mortality in every country to measure progress. For the majority of countries, the estimates within a country are based on the assumption of a piece-wise constant rate of decline.Methods and FindingsThis paper proposes an alternative method to estimate under-five mortality, such that the underlying rate of change is allowed to vary smoothly over time using a time series model. Information about the average rate of decline and changes therein is exchanged between countries using a Bayesian hierarchical model. Cross-validation exercises suggest that the proposed model provides credible bounds for the under-five mortality rate that are reasonably well calibrated during the observation period. The alternative estimates suggest smoother trends in under-five mortality and give new insights into changes in the rate of decline within countries.ConclusionsThe proposed model offers an alternative modeling approach for obtaining estimates of under-five mortality which removes the restriction of a piece-wise linear rate of decline and introduces hierarchy to exchange information between countries. The newly proposed estimates of the rate of decline in under-5 mortality and the uncertainty assessments would help to monitor progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4.

Temporal trends (1977-2007) and ethnic inequity in child mortality in rural villages of southern Guinea Bissau.

BackgroundGuinea Bissau is one of the poorest countries in the world, with one of the highest under-5 mortality rate. Despite its importance for policy planning, data on child mortality are often not available or of poor quality in low-income countries like Guinea Bissau. Our aim in this study was to use the baseline survey to estimate child mortality in rural villages in southern Guinea Bissau for a 30 years period prior to a planned cluster randomised intervention. We aimed to investigate temporal trends with emphasis on historical events and the effect of ethnicity, polygyny and distance to the health centre on child mortality.MethodsA baseline survey was conducted prior to a planned cluster randomised intervention to estimate child mortality in 241 rural villages in southern Guinea Bissau between 1977 and 2007. Crude child mortality rates were estimated by Kaplan-Meier method from birth history of 7854 women. Cox regression models were used to investigate the effects of birth periods with emphasis on historical events, ethnicity, polygyny and distance to the health centre on child mortality.ResultsHigh levels of child mortality were found at all ages under five with a significant reduction in child mortality over the time periods of birth except for 1997-2001. That period comprises the 1998/99 civil war interval, when child mortality was 1.5% higher than in the previous period. Children of Balanta ethnic group had higher hazard of dying under five years of age than children from other groups until 2001. Between 2002 and 2007, Fula children showed the highest mortality. Increasing walking distance to the nearest health centre increased the hazard, though not substantially, and polygyny had a negligible and statistically not significant effect on the hazard.ConclusionChild mortality is strongly associated with ethnicity and it should be considered in health policy planning. Child mortality, though considerably decreased during the past 30 years, remains high in rural Guinea Bissau. Temporal trends also suggest that civil wars have detrimental effects on child mortality.Trial RegistrationCurrent Controlled Trials ISRCTN52433336

Progress towards Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5 on maternal and child mortality: an updated systematic analysis

With 4 years until 2015, it is essential to monitor progress towards Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 4 and 5. Although estimates of maternal and child mortality were published in 2010, an update of estimates is timely in view of additional data sources that have become available and new methods developed. Our aim was to update previous estimates of maternal and child mortality using better data and more robust methods to provide the best available evidence for tracking progress on MDGs 4 and 5. We update the analyses of the progress towards MDGs 4 and 5 from 2010 with additional surveys, censuses, vital registration, and verbal autopsy data. For children, we estimate early neonatal (0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (ages 1-4 years), and under-5 mortality. We use an improved model for estimating mortality by age under 5 years. For maternal mortality, our updated analysis includes greater than 1000 additional site-years of data. We tested a large set of alternative models for maternal mortality; we used an ensemble model based on the models with the best out-of-sample predictive validity to generate new estimates from 1990 to 2011. Under-5 deaths have continued to decline, reaching 7·2 million in 2011 of which 2·2 million were early neonatal, 0·7 million late neonatal, 2·1 million postneonatal, and 2·2 million during childhood (ages 1-4 years). Comparing rates of decline from 1990 to 2000 with 2000 to 2011 shows that 106 countries have accelerated declines in the child mortality rate in the past decade. Maternal mortality has also continued to decline from 409,100 (uncertainty interval 382,900-437,900) in 1990 to 273,500 (256,300-291,700) deaths in 2011. We estimate that 56,100 maternal deaths in 2011 were HIV-related deaths during pregnancy. Based on recent trends in developing countries, 31 countries will achieve MDG 4, 13 countries MDG 5, and nine countries will achieve both. Even though progress on reducing maternal and child mortality in most countries is accelerating, most developing countries will take many years past 2015 to achieve the targets of the MDGs 4 and 5. Similarly, although there continues to be progress on maternal mortality the pace is slow, without any overall evidence of acceleration. Immediate concerted action is needed for a large number of countries to achieve MDG 4 and MDG 5. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Regional disparities in child mortality within China 1996-2004: epidemiological profile and health care coverage.

China was one of the 68 "countdown" countries prioritized to attain Millennium Development Goals (MDG 4). The aim of this study was to analyze data on child survival and health care coverage of proven cost-effective interventions in China, with a focus on national disparities. National maternal and child mortality surveillance data were used to estimate child mortality. Coverage for proven interventions was analyzed based on data from the National Health Services Survey, National Nutrition and Health Survey, and National Immunization Survey. Consultations and qualitative field observations by experts were used to complement the Survey data. Analysis of the data revealed a significant reduction in the overall under-5 (U5) child mortality rate in China from 1996 to 2007, but also great regional disparities, with the risk of child mortality in rural areas II-IV being two- to sixfold higher than that in urban areas. Rural areas II-IV also accounted for approximately 80% of the mortality burden. More than 60% of child mortality occurred during the neonatal period, with 70% of this occurring during the first week of life. The leading causes of neonatal mortality were asphyxia at birth and premature birth; during the post-neonatal period, these were diarrhea and pneumonia, especially in less developed rural areas. Utilization of health care services in terms of both quantity and quality was positively correlated with the region's development level. A large proportion of children were affected by inadequate feeding, and the lack of safe water and essential sanitary facilities are vital indirect factors contributing to the increase in child mortality. The simulation analysis revealed that increasing access to and the quality of the most effective interventions combined with relatively low costs in the context of a comprehensive approach has the potential to reduce U5 deaths by 34%. China is on track to meet MDG 4; however, great disparities in health care do exist within the country. It is therefore necessary to specifically target rural areas II-IV. Many causes of child mortality can be prevented or averted through the provision of basic health care. However, the leading predisposing factor contributing to child mortality in China is the insufficient coverage and poor quality of maternal and child health care services. Based on these data, we recommend that the government put more effort to ensure the health of the Chinese people, particularly in terms of providing the most vulnerable populations, i.e., children from the poorest areas and households, with access to good quality essential health care services.