Abstract
Child mortality estimates from complete birth histories from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) surveys and similar surveys are a chief source of data used to track Millennium Development Goal 4, which aims for a reduction of under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Based on the expected sample sizes when the DHS program commenced, the estimates are usually based on 5-y time periods. Recent surveys have had larger sample sizes than early surveys, and here we aimed to explore the benefits of using shorter time periods than 5 y for estimation. We also explore the benefit of changing the estimation procedure from being based on years before the survey, i.e., measured with reference to the date of the interview for each woman, to being based on calendar years. Jackknife variance estimation was used to calculate standard errors for 207 DHS surveys in order to explore to what extent the large samples in recent surveys can be used to produce estimates based on 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-y periods. We also recalculated the estimates for the surveys into calendar-year-based estimates. We demonstrate that estimation for 1-y periods is indeed possible for many recent surveys. The reduction in bias achieved using 1-y periods and calendar-year-based estimation is worthwhile in some cases. In particular, it allows tracking of the effects of particular events such as droughts, epidemics, or conflict on child mortality in a way not possible with previous estimation procedures. Recommendations to use estimation for short time periods when possible and to use calendar-year-based estimation were adopted in the United Nations 2011 estimates of child mortality.
Highlights
The reduction in bias achieved using 1-y periods and calendar-year-based estimation is worthwhile in some cases
Recommendations to use estimation for short time periods when possible and to use calendar-year-based estimation were adopted in the United Nations 2011 estimates of child mortality
Tracking Millennium Development Goal 4, which sets a target of reducing child mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015, requires that the under-five mortality rate, be estimated precisely and accurately
Summary
Tracking Millennium Development Goal 4, which sets a target of reducing child mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015, requires that the under-five mortality rate ( denoted in the literature as U5MR or 5q0), be estimated precisely and accurately. Child mortality estimates from complete birth histories from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) surveys and similar surveys are a chief source of data used to track Millennium Development Goal 4, which aims for a reduction of under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. The researchers determine appropriate time periods for child mortality estimates based on full birth histories, given different sample sizes. They ask whether, with the bigger sample sizes that are available, details about trends in under-five mortality rates are being missed by using the estimation procedures that were developed for smaller samples. They ask whether calendar-year-based estimates can be calculated; mortality is usually estimated in ‘‘years before the survey,’’ a process that blurs the reference period for the estimate
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