Eruptive Scenarios Research Articles

Caldera unrest prior to intense volcanism in Campi Flegrei (Italy) at 4.0 ka B.P.: Implications for caldera dynamics and future eruptive scenarios

The Campi Flegrei caldera is one of the highest risk volcanic areas on the Earth. Our research documents a 150 year‐long period of intense volcanism following less than 200 years of repose after the Agnano‐Monte Spina Plinian eruption (4.1 ka). The new data show that the renewal of volcanism was preceded by an uplift of a few tens of meters, triggered by mafic refilling of reservoirs at depths of 3 km or less. Our studies also indicate for the first time the occurrence of contemporaneous eruptions from at locations in different sectors of the caldera. These results suggest that a future eruptive crisis will likely be preceded by several meters of caldera‐wide uplift in response to magma movements at depth. The trend of uplift of the caldera since 1969 may thus represent the unrest expected before a renewal of volcanism within an interval of decades to centuries.

Monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes

Abstract. In this paper we describe the results of a project ongoing at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). The objective is to develop and implement a system for monitoring and forecasting volcanic plumes of Etna. Monitoring is based at present by multispectral infrared measurements from the Spin Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the Meteosat Second Generation geosynchronous satellite, visual and thermal cameras, and three radar disdrometers able to detect ash dispersal and fallout. Forecasting is performed by using automatic procedures for: i) downloading weather forecast data from meteorological mesoscale models; ii) running models of tephra dispersal, iii) plotting hazard maps of volcanic ash dispersal and deposition for certain scenarios and, iv) publishing the results on a web-site dedicated to the Italian Civil Protection. Simulations are based on eruptive scenarios obtained by analysing field data collected after the end of recent Etna eruptions. Forecasting is, hence, supported by plume observations carried out by the monitoring system. The system was tested on some explosive events occurred during 2006 and 2007 successfully. The potentiality use of monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes, in a way to prevent threats to aviation from volcanic ash, is finally discussed.

The rheological evolution of alkaline Vesuvius magmas and comparison with alkaline series from the Phlegrean Fields, Etna, Stromboli and Teide

Somma-Vesuvius is considered one of the highest-risk volcanic systems in the world due to its high population density and record of highly destructive explosive activity. Eruptive style at Vesuvius varies greatly, alternating between effusive and explosive activities, and is likely strongly controlled by the evolution of the physical and chemical properties of the magma. Nevertheless, with the exception of the 1631 eruption, the rheological properties of Vesuvius magmas remain largely unconstrained. Here, we investigate the Newtonian shear viscosity ( η) of dry and hydrous melts from the Mercato (plinian) and 1906 (violent strombolian) eruptions. These eruptions differ in size, eruptive style and magma chemistry (from phonolite to phono-tephrite). To evaluate the dry liquid viscosity variation covered by the eruptive products of the recent activity at Vesuvius, we measured the melt viscosities of bulk rock compositions and, for highly crystalline samples, of the separated groundmasses of tephras from the Pollena and 1906 eruptions. Hydrated samples with up to 4.24 wt% dissolved water were synthesised in a piston cylinder apparatus at confining pressure up to 10 kbar. The dry high temperature and the dry and hydrous low-temperature viscosities were obtained by combining the concentric cylinder and micropenetration techniques. The measured viscosities were parameterized by a modified Vogel–Fulcher–Tammann equation, accounting for the effect of water content, and were compared with previous measurements and models. At magmatic temperatures, the viscosities of Mercato samples are about four orders of magnitude higher than that of the least viscous investigated products from the 1906 eruption. Complex numerical models to forecast eruptive scenarios and their environmental impact are extremely sensitive to the accuracy of the input parameters and constitutive equations of magma properties. As a consequence, the numerical expressions obtained here are of particular relevance in the context of hazard assessment related to the different possible eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius through numerical simulation tools. The effect of composition on the liquid viscosities is compared to other high-Na (e.g., samples from Teide and Etna) and high-K (e.g., samples from Stromboli and Phlegrean Fields) alkaline magmas.

The interest of cartography for a better perception and management of volcanic risk: From scientific to social representations: The case of Mt. Pelée volcano, Martinique (Lesser Antilles)

The study develops an innovative GIS-based integrated approach for the assessment of a comprehensive volcanic risk. This is based on a four-step methodology which has been developed at Mt. Pelée volcano, in Martinique, a French island in the Lesser Antilles. The first stage of the methodological framework integrates the spatial extent of volcanic hazards for a maximal credible eruptive scenario. The second stage covers an assessment of the elements (especially the buildings) that may be affected in the event of an eruption and defines their level of damages by given volcanic hazards. A computerized analysis leads to the definition of an index for the risk of total loss in a 500-meter grid. The third stage consists of designing regulative land use maps which should orient and limit the occupation of areas exposed to severe hazards. Finally, the fourth stage, based on survey data, includes a spatial assessment of collective representations for a future eruption by the surrounding communities. These maps turn out to be powerful communication tools which help planners and disaster authorities in mitigating damages from volcanic hazards. They can contribute to enhance the perception of volcanic risk in Martinique.

Modeling unusual eruptive behavior of Mt. Etna, Italy, by means of event bush

One of the best-studied volcanoes of the world, Mt. Etna in Sicily, repeatedly exhibits eruptive scenarios that depart from the behavior commonly considered typical for this volcano. Episodes of intense explosive activity, pyroclastic flows, dome growth and cone collapse pose a variety of previously underestimated threats to human lives in the summit area of the volcano. However, retrospective analysis of these events shows that they were likely caused by the same very sets of premises and starting conditions as “normal” eruptions, yet combined in an unexpected, probably unique, way. To cope with such unexpected consequences, we involve an approach of artificial intelligence developed specially for needs of the geosciences, the event bush. Scenarios inferred from the event bush fit the observed ones and allow to foresee other low-probability events that may occur at the volcano. Application of the event bush provides a more impartial vision of volcanic phenomena and may serve as an intermediary between expert knowledge and numerical assessment, e.g., by means of Bayesian Belief Networks.

Topographic control on lava flow paths at Mount Etna, Italy: Implications for hazard assessment

Assessment of the hazard from lava flow inundation at the active volcano of Mount Etna, Italy, was performed by calculating the probability of lava flow inundation at each position on the volcano. A probability distribution for the formation of new vents was calculated using geological and volcanological data from past eruptions. The simulated lava flows from these vents were emplaced using a maximum expected flow length derived from geological data on previous lava flows. Simulations were run using DOWNFLOW, a digital‐elevation‐model‐based model designed to predict lava flow paths. Different eruptive scenarios were simulated by varying the elevation and probability distribution of eruptive points. Inundation maps show that the city of Catania and the coastal zone may only be impacted by flows erupted from low‐altitude vents (<1500 m elevation) and that flank eruptions at elevations >2000 m preferentially inundate the northeast and southern sectors of the volcano as well as the Valle del Bove. Eruptions occurring in the summit area (>3000 m elevation) pose no threat to the local population. Discrepancies between the results of simple, hydrological models and those of the DOWNFLOW model show that hydrological approaches are inappropriate when dealing with Etnean lava flows. Because hydrological approaches are not designed to reproduce the full complexity of lava flow spreading, they underestimate the catchment basins when the fluid has a complex rheology.

Constraining the recent plumbing system of Vulcano (Aeolian Arc, Italy) by textural, petrological, and fractal analysis: The 1739 A.D. Pietre Cotte lava flow

The 1739 A.D. Pietre Cotte lava flow is part of a sequence of low‐explosive to weak effusion events occurred at La Fossa Cone, the active vent on Vulcano Island (Aeolian Arc, Italy). This lava is rhyolitic, texturally heterogeneous, and contains lati‐trachytic enclaves. These compositions are recurrent in the La Fossa volcanic products and are representative of the recent Vulcano plumbing system. The host lava is vesicular, relatively phenocryst‐free, and locally contains microlites and millimeter‐sized spherulites. The enclaves are up to 10 cm in size, display angular to spherical shapes, and can form the core of spherulites. Enclaves mostly consist of plagioclase and augitic phenocrysts set in a weakly vesicular groundmass characterized by variable abundance of glass and feldspar microlites. Field, textural, and fractal data allow us to constrain the rheological features of the rhyolitic and lati‐trachytic magmas. In situ major, trace, and volatile element analyses provide evidence for heterogeneities in the glassy matrix and zoning of phenocrysts. Processes of magma evolution have been quantitatively constrained by using the apparent distribution ratios of trace elements measured between mineral phases and glassy matrices. The collected data in combination with petrological and fluid inclusion data from the literature provides evidence for (1) a genetic relationship between the two magmas through assimilation fractional crystallization process; (2) a mingling mechanism between an uprising rhyolitic magma and a shallower partly crystallized lati‐trachytic magma plug; (3) the desegregation (enclaves) at variable scales of the lati‐trachyte within the rhyolite; and (4) the possible eruptive scenarios consequent to a future magmatic unrest.

Sub-surface dynamics and eruptive styles of maars in the Colli Albani Volcanic District, Central Italy

Eruptive scenarios associated with the possible reactivation of maar-forming events in the Quaternary, ultrapotassic Colli Albani Volcanic District (CAVD) provides implications for volcanic hazard assessment in the densely populated area near Rome. Based on detailed stratigraphy, grain size, componentry, ash morphoscopy and petro-chemical analyses of maar eruption products, along with textural analysis of cored juvenile clasts, we attempt to reconstruct the eruptive dynamics of the Prata Porci and Albano maars, as related to pre- and syn-eruptive interactions between trachybasaltic to K-foiditic feeder magmas and carbonate–silicoclastic and subvolcanic country rocks. Magma volumes in the order of 0.5–3.1 × 10 8 m 3 were erupted during the monogenetic Prata Porci maar activity and the three eruptive cycles of the Albano multiple maar, originating loose to strongly lithified, wet and dry pyroclastic surge deposits, Strombolian scoria fall horizons and lithic-rich explosion breccias. These deposits contain a wide range of accessory and accidental lithic clasts, with significant vertical stratigraphic variations in the lithic types and abundances. The two maar study cases hold a record of repeated transitions between magmatic (i.e, Strombolian fallout) and hydromagmatic (wet and dry pyroclastic surges) activity styles. Evidence of phreatic explosions, a common precursor of explosive volcanic activity, is only found at the base of the Prata Porci eruptive succession. The quantitative evaluation of the proportions of the different eruptive styles in the stratigraphic record of the two maars, based on magma vs. lithic volume estimates, reveals a prevailing magmatic character in terms of erupted magma volumes despite the hydromagmatic footprint. Different degrees of explosive magma–water interaction were apparently controlled by the different hydrogeological and geological–structural settings. In the Prata Porci case, shifts in the depth of magma fragmentation are proposed to have accompanied eruption style changes. In the Albano case, a deeply dissected geothermal aquifer in peri-caldera setting and variable mass eruption rates were the main controlling factors of repeated shifts in the eruptive style. Finally, textural evidence from cored juvenile clasts and analytical modeling of melt–solid heat transfer indicate that the interacting substrate in the Prata Porci case was at low, uniform temperature (~ 100 °C) as compared to the highly variable temperatures (up to 700–800 °C) inferred for the geothermal system beneath Albano.

Emergency planning and mitigation at Vesuvius: A new evidence-based approach

Disasters from explosive volcanic eruptions are infrequent and experience in emergency planning and mitigation for such events remains limited. The need for urgently developing more robust methods for risk assessment and decision making in volcanic crises has become increasingly apparent as world populations continue to expand in areas of active explosive volcanism. Nowhere is this more challenging than at Vesuvius, Italy, with hundreds of thousands of people living on the flanks of one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world. We describe how a new paradigm, evidence-based volcanology, has been applied in EXPLORIS to contribute to crisis planning and management for when the volcano enters its next state of unrest, as well as in long-term land-use planning. The analytical approach we adopted enumerates and quantifies all the processes and effects of the eruptive hazards of the volcano known to influence risk, a scientific challenge that combines field data on the vulnerability of the built environment and humans in past volcanic disasters with theoretical research on the state of the volcano, and including evidence from the field on previous eruptions as well as numerical simulation modelling of eruptive processes. Formal probabilistic reasoning under uncertainty and a decision analysis approach have provided the basis for the development of an event tree for a future range of eruption types with probability paths and hypothetical casualty outcomes for risk assessment. The most likely future eruption scenarios for emergency planning were derived from the event tree and elaborated upon from the geological and historical record. Modelling the impacts in these scenarios and quantifying the consequences for the circumvesuvian area provide realistic assessments for disaster planning and for showing the potential risk–benefit of mitigation measures, the main one being timely evacuation, but include for consideration protecting buildings against dilute, low dynamic pressure surges, and temporary roof supports in the most vulnerable buildings, as well as hardening infrastructure and lifelines. This innovative work suggests that risk-based methods could have an important role in crisis management at cities on volcanoes and small volcanic islands.

Upward migration of Vesuvius magma chamber over the past 20,000 years

Forecasting future eruptions of Vesuvius is an important challenge for volcanologists, as its reawakening could threaten the lives of 700,000 people living near the volcano. Critical to the evaluation of hazards associated with the next eruption is the estimation of the depth of the magma reservoir, one of the main parameters controlling magma properties and eruptive style. Petrological studies have indicated that during past activity, magma chambers were at depths between 3 and 16 km (refs 3-7). Geophysical surveys have imaged some levels of seismic attenuation, the shallowest of which lies at 8-9 km depth, and these have been tentatively interpreted as levels of preferential magma accumulation. By using experimental phase equilibria, carried out on material from four main explosive events at Vesuvius, we show here that the reservoirs that fed the eruptive activity migrated from 7-8 km to 3-4 km depth between the ad 79 (Pompeii) and ad 472 (Pollena) events. If data from the Pomici di Base event 18.5 kyr ago and the 1944 Vesuvius eruption are included, the total upward migration of the reservoir amounts to 9-11 km. The change of preferential magma ponding levels in the upper crust can be attributed to differences in the volatile content and buoyancy of ascending magmas, as well as to changes in local stress field following either caldera formation or volcano spreading. Reservoir migration, and the possible influence on feeding rates, should be integrated into the parameters used for defining expected eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius.

Explosive activity and eruption scenarios at Somma-Vesuvius (Italy): Towards a new classification scheme

A new proposal for the classification of Somma-Vesuvius (SV) explosive activity is presented, based on a critical revision of a large set of published and unpublished stratigraphic, compositional, and physical volcanology data on the products of the past 20,000 years of activity. The new database is used to discuss the general behaviour of the volcano in terms of frequency, magnitude and intensity of the events, as well as of the length of the repose time which preceded each eruption. Several different types of eruption are recognized, each characterised by specific physical eruptive parameters: plinian, subplinian (further subdivided in subplinian I and subplinian II), violent strombolian, ash emission events. For each eruption type, a complex scenario is described, with phases of different style, duration, magnitude and intensity occurring during the course of the eruption itself. The name given to each eruption type is derived from the style of the most representative part of the eruption (in terms of duration or volume). On the whole, the magnitude (expressed as the volume of erupted magma) of the past SV eruptions has been roughly decreasing with time while, starting from 3900 years BP, their frequency has been increasing. The eruption intensity, expressed as the estimated magma discharge rate (MDR) continuously increases with increasing magnitude from strombolian to plinian eruptions, the most voluminous plinian events being, however, characterised by a lower MDR than the smaller ones. The length of the “apparent” repose preceding an eruption (the difference in age between one deposit and that immediately on top of it) appears clearly correlated with magnitude for the most intense eruptions (plinian and subplinian I), while this correlation is poorer for eruptions of intermediate size (from violent strombolian to subplinian II). These exhibit a large variability in magnitude, intensity and eruption style for a range of repose time varying from dozens to hundreds of years, then including the current duration of Vesuvius quiescence. By reckoning with the whole range of possibilities that a next unrest at Vesuvius implies, the set of presented eruption scenarios can be useful both for developing a probabilistic approach to hazard assessment and depicting a range of impact scenarios. The scenario for high-intensity events had been already well defined since 1995, in order to redact the emergency plan of the National Department of Civil Defence. Conversely, it is now clear that the impact on the territory of long-lasting, although low-intensity, eruptions (subplinian II, violent strombolian, ash emission activity) can be relevant especially in terms of economic costs. A larger consideration of this type of activity at Vesuvius can be important especially for the aspects of emergency planning and risk reduction.

Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

Tephra fallout associated with renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera is a serious threat to the Neapolitan area. In order to assess the hazards related with tephra loading, we have considered three different eruption scenarios representative of past activity: a high-magnitude event similar to the 4.1 ka Agnano-Monte Spina eruption, a medium-magnitude event, similar to the ∼3.8 ka Astroni 6 eruption, and a low-magnitude event similar to the Averno 2 eruption. The fallout deposits were reconstructed using the HAZMAP computational model, which is based on a semi-analytical solution of the two-dimensional advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation for volcanic tephra. The input parameters into the model, such as total erupted mass, eruption column height, and bulk grain-size and components distribution, were obtained by best-fitting field data. We carried out tens of thousands simulations using a statistical set of wind profiles, obtained from NOAA re-analysis. Probability maps, relative to the considered scenarios, were constructed for several tephra loads, such as 200, 300 and 400 kg/m2. These provide a hazard assessment for roof collapses due to tephra loading that can be used for risk mitigation plans in the area.

Vent conditions for expected eruptions at Vesuvius

Determining consistent sets of vent conditions for next expected eruptions at Vesuvius is crucial for the simulation of the sub-aerial processes originating the volcanic hazard and the eruption impact. Here we refer to the expected eruptive scales and conditions defined in the frame of the EC Exploris project, and simulate the dynamics of magma ascent along the volcanic conduit for sub-steady phases of next eruptions characterized by intensities of the Violent Strombolian (VS), Sub-Plinian 2 (SP2), and Sub-Plinian 1 (SP1) scale. Sets of conditions for the simulations are determined on the basis of the bulk of knowledge on the past history of Vesuvius [Cioni, R., Bertagnini, A., Santacroce, R., Andronico, D., Explosive activity and eruption scenarios at Somma–Vesuvius (Italy): towards a new classification scheme. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, this issue.]. Volatile contents (H 2O and CO 2) are parameterized in order to account for the uncertainty in their expected amounts for a next eruption. In all cases the flow in the conduit is found to be choked, with velocities at the conduit exit or vent corresponding to the sonic velocity in the two-phase non-equilibrium magmatic mixture. Conduit diameters and vent mixture densities are found to display minimum overlapping between the different eruptive scales, while exit gas and particle velocities, as well as vent pressures, largely overlap. Vent diameters vary from as low as about 5 m for VS eruptions, to 35–55 m for the most violent SP1 eruption scale. Vent pressures can be as low as less than 1 MPa for the lowest volatile content employed of 2 wt.% H 2O and no CO 2, to 7–8 MPa for highest volatile contents of 5 wt.% H 2O and 2 wt.% CO 2 and large eruptive scales. Gas and particle velocities at the vent range from 100–250 m/s, with a tendency to decrease, and to increase the mechanical decoupling between the phases, with increasing eruptive scale. Except for velocities, all relevant vent quantities are more sensitive to the volatile content of the discharged magma for the highest eruptive scales considered.

Developing an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius

Probabilistic characterizations of possible future eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius volcano are elaborated and organized within a risk-based framework. In the EXPLORIS project, a wide variety of topics relating to this basic problem have been pursued: updates of historical data, reinterpretation of previous geological field data and the collection of new fieldwork results, the development of novel numerical modelling codes and of risk assessment techniques have all been completed. To achieve coherence, many diverse strands of evidence had to be unified within a formalised structure, and linked together by expert knowledge. For this purpose, a Vesuvius ‘Event Tree’ (ET) was created to summarise in a numerical-graphical form, at different levels of detail, all the relative likelihoods relating to the genesis and style of eruption, development and nature of volcanic hazards, and the probabilities of occurrence of different volcanic risks in the next eruption crisis. The Event Tree formulation provides a logical pathway connecting generic probabilistic hazard assessment to quantitative risk evaluation. In order to achieve a complete parameterization for this all-inclusive approach, exhaustive hazard and risk models were needed, quantified with comprehensive uncertainty distributions for all factors involved, rather than simple ‘best-estimate’ or nominal values. Thus, a structured expert elicitation procedure was implemented to complement more traditional data analysis and interpretative approaches. The structure of the Vesuvius Event Tree is presented, and some of the data analysis findings and elicitation outcomes that have provided initial indicative probability distributions to be associated with each of its branches are summarized. The Event Tree extends from initiating volcanic eruption events and hazards right through to human impact and infrastructure consequences, with the complete tree and its parameterisation forming a quantitative synoptic framework for comprehensive hazard evaluation and mapping of risk impacts. The organization of the Event Tree allows easy updating, as and when new information becomes available.

Modelling the impact of a hypothetical sub-Plinian eruption at La Soufrière of Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles)

This paper describes the development and application of an impact model for a future hypothetical sub-Plinian eruption of La Soufrière of Guadeloupe. The model was designed to assess the impact from either a single or multiple eruption scenarios, each defined in terms of a map of the intensity of three volcanic hazards; volcanogenic earthquake, tephra fallout and pyroclastic density currents. The impact from the three hazards can be assessed independently or alternatively the joint impact of the three hazards can be assessed. The outputs that are produced from the model are; the number of buildings with collapsed roofs, and the number of fatal and non-fatal casualties. Two versions of the impact model were developed, one that uses a spreadsheet and another that is implemented using a Geographical Information System (GIS). Both versions use the same types of hazard inputs and vulnerability functions to derive the number of building collapses and casualties, but have different spatial resolution of the final outputs. The spreadsheet version aggregates the results at a zone level defined specifically for this project whereas the GIS was designed to produce results using 250 m grid-squares. The outputs from the two versions, when using the same eruption scenario, produced somewhat different results, highlighting the importance of defining the appropriate spatial resolution. The vulnerability functions were developed using data on the building stock that was collected by a local survey, in which data on the form of construction, condition, location and types of openings and the variation of these parameters across the affected area were collected. The vulnerability functions incorporated new assessments of fire risks induced by pyroclastic density currents. The model was applied to La Soufrière using a range of input hazard scenarios based on reconstruction of the most recent sub-Plinian magmatic eruption which occurred in 1530 AD. A sensitivity analysis of the model was carried out choosing the inputs from a range of defined input values. The effect on losses and casualties of a range of possible mitigation measures was assessed by running the original model and the modified model using the same input eruption scenario. A separate casualty treatment model was also developed and tested.

A new scenario for the last magmatic eruption of La Soufrière of Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles) in 1530 A.D. Evidence from stratigraphy radiocarbon dating and magmatic evolution of erupted products

La Soufrière of Guadeloupe is a dangerous volcano characterized over the last decade by moderate seismic and fumarolic unrest. In the last 15,000 years it has experienced phreatic and magmatic eruptions and unusually numerous flank collapse events sometimes associated with a magmatic eruption. We propose a new age of 1530 A.D. and a new eruptive scenario for the last magmatic eruption on the basis of a novel statistical analysis of radiocarbon age dates, and new field and geochemical data. This eruption is the only magmatic eruption likely to have occurred in Guadeloupe during the last 1400 years. The eruption mainly involved an andesitic magma which, in the first phase of the eruption, partially mixed with a slightly more differentiated magma stored in a small and shallow magma chamber. Ascent of magma to the surface generated a partial collapse of the hydrothermally altered edifice that increased the magma discharge and led to a sub-plinian phase with scoria fallout and column-collapse pyroclastic flows followed by near-vent pyroclastic scoria fountains. The eruption ended with growth of a lava dome. Our revised interpretation of the last magmatic eruption of La Soufrière constitutes the most likely key to a future magmatic eruption scenario for this volcano which displays strong evidence of unrest since 1992.

The last 5000 years of activity at Sete Cidades volcano (São Miguel Island, Azores): Implications for hazard assessment

Sete Cidades is a central volcano with a summit caldera at the western end of São Miguel Island, Azores. Its stratigraphy comprises two main geological groups: the Inferior Group, the units of which date from more than 200 000 years ago through to 36 000 years before present, consisting of thick lava flows and subaerial volcaniclastic deposits that built the base of the central volcano; and the Superior Group which comprises all the activity from the last 36 000 years, including pumice and scoria fallout and PDC deposits with minor lava flows. The volcanostratigraphy is divided into six main formations — Risco, Ajuda, Bretanha, Lombas, Santa Bárbara and Lagoas, each defined by different activity phases in the volcano's evolution. The present caldera developed in three phases associated with massive paroxysmal eruptions which occurred approximately 36 000, 29 000 and 16 000 years before present. Since the last caldera forming event, eruptive activity has been predominantly explosive and a variety of deposits have been produced by different eruptive styles, associated with three specific settings: (1) pumice fall deposits, pyroclastic density currents and hydromagmatic events from eruptions inside the caldera; (2) lava domes, cinder cones and basaltic lava flows from eruptions on the volcano flanks; (3) tuff ring and tuff deposits from surtseyan eruptions offshore. The more recent history of the volcano is marked by a change in the intracaldera activity from dominantly magmatic behaviour to a hydromagmatic character, which happened about 5000 years ago. Since then, at least 15 basaltic subaerial and submarine eruptions have occurred on the volcano flanks and 17 trachytic (s.l.) explosive eruptions have occurred within the caldera, the most recent of which took place about 700 years ago. This eruptive frequency makes Sete Cidades probably the most active volcanic centre in the Azores. In this paper we present the stratigraphy and a description of the deposits which originate from the last 5000 years, in order to delineate Sete Cidades' recent eruptive history for the purpose of estimating the hazard associated with this volcano. An event tree has been designed to systematize possible future eruptive scenarios and to aid the assessment of relative probabilities of occurrence of different potential eruptive styles. The probabilities for all nodes on the event tree, together with their associated uncertainties, were obtained by expert elicitation, providing results that accord with the geologic record. These probability estimates indicate that (1) basaltic strombolian and submarine eruptions are the most likely to occur, (2) trachytic activity from the central volcano magmatic system is more probable in the intracaldera environment than on the flanks, and (3) explosive activity is more likely than effusive for the trachytic system. Worst-case scenario and maximum expected events are identified according to the eruptive scenarios and their probabilities of occurrence.

Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

Multi-hazard risk mapping and assessment on an active volcano: the GRINP project at Mount Cameroon

To help improve the safety of its population faced with natural disasters, the Cameroon Government, with the support of the French Government, initiated a programme of geological risk analysis and mapping on Mount Cameroon. This active volcano is subject to a variety of hazards: volcanic eruptions, slope instability and earthquakes. Approximately 450,000 people live or work around this volcano, in an area which includes one of Cameroon’s main economic resources. An original methodology was used for obtaining the information to reply to questions raised by the authorities. It involves several stages: identifying the different geological hazard components, defining each phenomenon’s threat matrix by crossing intensity and frequency indices, mapping the hazards, listing and mapping the exposed elements, analysing their respective values in economic, functional and strategic terms, establishing typologies for the different element-at-risk groups and assessing their vulnerability to the various physical pressures produced by the hazard phenomena, and establishing risk maps for each of the major element-at-risk groups (population, infrastructures, vegetation, atmosphere). At the end of the study we were able (a) to identify the main critical points within the area, and (b) provide quantified orders of magnitude concerning the dimensions of the risk by producing a plausible eruption scenario. The results allowed us to put forward a number of recommendations to the Cameroon Government concerning risk prevention and management. The adopted approach corresponds to a first level of response to the authorities. Later developments should make it possible to refine the quality of the methodology.

The role of phreatomagmatism in a Plio-Pleistocene high-density scoria cone field: Llancanelo Volcanic Field (Mendoza), Argentina

The Plio-Pleistocene Llancanelo Volcanic Field, together with the nearby Payun Matru Field, comprises at least 800 scoria cones and voluminous lava fields that cover an extensive area behind the Andean volcanic arc. Beside the scoria cones in the Llancanelo Field, at least six volcanoes show evidence for explosive eruptions involving magma–water interaction. These are unusual in the context of the semi-arid climate of the eastern Andean ranges. The volcanic structures consist of phreatomagmatic-derived tuff rings and tuff cones of olivine basalt composition. Malacara and Jarilloso tuff cones were produced by fallout of a range of dry to wet tephra. The Malacara cone shows more evidence for a predominance of wet-emplaced units, with a steep slump-slope characterized by many soft-sediment deformation structures, such as: undulating bedding planes, truncated beds and water escape features. The Piedras Blancas and Carapacho tuff rings resulted from explosive eruptions with deeper explosion loci. These cones are hence dominated by lapilli tuff and tuff units, emplaced mainly by wet and/or dry pyroclastic surges. Carapacho is the only centre that appears to have started with phreatomagmatic eruptions, with lowermost tephra being rich in non-volcanic country rocks. The presence of deformed beds with impact sags, slumping textures, asymmetrical ripples, dunes, cross- and planar lamination, syn-volcanic faulting and accretionary lapilli beds indicate an eruption scenario dominated by excessive water in the transportational and depositional regime. This subordinate phreatomagmatism in the Llancanelo Volcanic Field suggests presence of ground and/or shallow surface water during some of the eruptions. Each of the tuff rings and cones are underlain by thick, fractured multiple older lava units. These broken basalts are inferred to be the horizons where rising magma interacted with groundwater. The strong palagonitization at each of the phreatomagmatic cones formed hard beds, resistant to erosion, and therefore the volcanic landforms are well-preserved.