Abstract
Abstract. In this paper we describe the results of a project ongoing at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). The objective is to develop and implement a system for monitoring and forecasting volcanic plumes of Etna. Monitoring is based at present by multispectral infrared measurements from the Spin Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the Meteosat Second Generation geosynchronous satellite, visual and thermal cameras, and three radar disdrometers able to detect ash dispersal and fallout. Forecasting is performed by using automatic procedures for: i) downloading weather forecast data from meteorological mesoscale models; ii) running models of tephra dispersal, iii) plotting hazard maps of volcanic ash dispersal and deposition for certain scenarios and, iv) publishing the results on a web-site dedicated to the Italian Civil Protection. Simulations are based on eruptive scenarios obtained by analysing field data collected after the end of recent Etna eruptions. Forecasting is, hence, supported by plume observations carried out by the monitoring system. The system was tested on some explosive events occurred during 2006 and 2007 successfully. The potentiality use of monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes, in a way to prevent threats to aviation from volcanic ash, is finally discussed.
Highlights
Volcanic ash causes damages to infrastructure and telecommunication, contamination of crops and water supply (Blong, 1984; Casadewall, 1994)
The first famous case of such accidents occurred on 24 June 1982 when a British Airways Flight 9, a Boeing 747-200 flying at an elevation of 11 470 m from Kuala Lumpur, in Malaysia, to Perth, in Australia, encountered volcanic ash after passing over Krakatau volcano
In this paper we describe the approach used for monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes
Summary
Volcanic ash causes damages to infrastructure and telecommunication, contamination of crops and water supply (Blong, 1984; Casadewall, 1994). Scollo et al.: Monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes advisories on the plume dispersal and act like an interface between MWOs, traffic control centres, and volcano observatories (Webley and Mastin, 2008) These are essential in forecasting because i) they know the time at which an eruption column is forming; ii) they may collect all information needed for initializing models using monitoring systems and iii) they may verify the reliability of model results by comparing the computed data with the observed cloud trajectory and tephra deposit. The airport was forced to close again on 24 November 2006 because ash fallout covered the SE flanks of the volcano In this context there was the demand to improve the monitoring and forecasting of the volcanic plume dispersal and tephra deposition during Etna explosive eruptions in a way to give precise warns to the aviation authorities via Italian Civil Protection, the national service for the emergency management in Italy, and to assist the work of VAACs. The ac-.
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