Caldera unrest prior to intense volcanism in Campi Flegrei (Italy) at 4.0 ka B.P.: Implications for caldera dynamics and future eruptive scenarios

Abstract

The Campi Flegrei caldera is one of the highest risk volcanic areas on the Earth. Our research documents a 150 year‐long period of intense volcanism following less than 200 years of repose after the Agnano‐Monte Spina Plinian eruption (4.1 ka). The new data show that the renewal of volcanism was preceded by an uplift of a few tens of meters, triggered by mafic refilling of reservoirs at depths of 3 km or less. Our studies also indicate for the first time the occurrence of contemporaneous eruptions from at locations in different sectors of the caldera. These results suggest that a future eruptive crisis will likely be preceded by several meters of caldera‐wide uplift in response to magma movements at depth. The trend of uplift of the caldera since 1969 may thus represent the unrest expected before a renewal of volcanism within an interval of decades to centuries.