Eruption Research Articles

Food system adaptation and maintaining trade could mitigate global famine in abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios

After a major nuclear war, volcanic eruption or asteroid or comet impact that causes an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario, agricultural yields would plummet. We analyzed a nuclear winter scenario involving the injection of 150 Tg of soot in the stratosphere using a linear optimization model with and without global food trade. We investigated the effects of loss of global food trade, some simple adaptations like rationing and storage of excess food for the coldest years, and rapid, large-scale deployment of food sources which are less dependent on present day climate (so called resilient foods) including cool tolerant crops, methane single cell protein, lignocellulosic sugar, greenhouse crops, and seaweed. In the worst case of no global food trade and no adaptations, the model predicts a global famine. However, scaling up resilient foods quickly could mitigate this for many countries. Maintaining global food trade would further alleviate pressure on local food systems, unlocking the potential to feed the entire global population. However, insufficient preparation, post-disaster conflict, or economic collapse would worsen outcomes and hinder adaptation.

Substantiating of oil and gas prospects of Mesozoic sediments based on the geochemical model of mud volcanoes in the Shamakhi-Gobustan structural element of the South Caspian megadepression

There are up to 120 mud volcanoes in the Shamakhi-Gobustan region. During the process of mud volcano eruptions, a large amount of solid, liquid, and gaseous products are thrown to the Earth’s surface, which are widely used for the identification of oil and gas deposits and are considered the main indicator of the productivity of the basin. According to laboratory results from the analysis of solid, liquid, and gas products of mud volcanoes, it is possible to obtain detailed information about the oil-gas content of deep-lying sediments. Therefore, the study of the geochemical composition of the mud volcanoes in the Shamakhi-Gobustan trough plays a major role in the discovery of new oil-gas and gas-condensate deposits. To clarify the changes in the chemical and isotopic composition of gases from mud volcanoes in the Shamakhi-Gobustan trough and to evaluate the oil-bearing and gas-bearing potential of Mesozoic sediments, the characteristics of changes in the isotopic composition of methane gas, heavy hydrocarbons, carbon dioxide, ni- trogen, as well as CH4 and CO2, were studied. The amount of methane in the gas emissions released from mud volcanoes in the Azerbaijan region is more than 90%. The amount of CH4 in the mud volcanoes of the Shamakhi-Gobustan trough ranges from 78.5% to 97.56%. The minimum amount of methane is found in North Gobustan (Gizmeydan 86.8%, Malikchobanli 78.5%), while relatively high amounts are mainly noted in Central (Kushchu 97.55%) and South Gobustan (including Dashgil 97.57%, Goturdag 96.55%, Bahar 96.78%). Mud vol- canoes are less developed in the North Gobustan region and are small in size. In the Central zone, both the size and the number of volcanic cones increase significantly compared to North Gobustan. The largest and most active volcanoes have developed in the southern zone of the trough. Huge mud volcanoes such as Dashmerdan, Solakhay, Ayrantoken, Goturdag, Kirdag, and other volcanoes have developed along the Alat range. The mud volcanoes of North and Central Gobustan are mainly confined to Cretaceous and Paleogene sediments, and due to the low occurrence of plastic clay rocks in these sediment sections, mud volcanoes are rare and weakly active. On the contrary, to the south of these zones, that is, in South Gobustan, they are located in Pliocene sediments, and due to the presence of very thick plastic rocks in their section, mud volcanoes are widespread, and they are active volcanoes that are morphologically sharply reflected. It should be noted that in areas where plastic clay rocks with significant thickness and rheologically active properties are developed, large cones of mud volcanoes that erupt frequently are observed. The calculated gas production of mud volcanoes increases from the northern zone towards South Gobustan. Thus, while the calculated gas production of the Nabur volcano located in the Northern zone is 1500 m3/day, the calculated gas production of the Dashgil mud volcano located in South-Eastern Gobustan is 40,000 m3/day. In the central and south- ern zones of the Shamakhi-Gobustan trough, the presence of ancient rock fragments from the Oligocene-Miocene (Maykop) age rocks forming their roots in the solid waste of mud volcanoes (Cretaceous, Paleocene, Eocene), a large percentage of methane gas (97.57%), transverse elevations, and the presence of an intersection zone of longitudinal faults suggests that there is a tectonic rupture zone rich in natural gas below the base of the volcano. This is proven once again by the occurrence of gas flows in Anart (110,000 m3/day), Utalgi (50,000 m3/day), and the Touragay field (20,000 m3/day). The presence of oil films in the eruption products of mud volcanoes indicates the accumulation of oil alongside gas.

Brief communication: Small-scale geohazards cause significant and highly variable impacts on emotions

Abstract. The impact of geohazards on the mental health of local populations is well recognised but understudied. We used natural language processing (NLP) of Twitter (now known as X) posts (n=10 341) to analyse the sentiments expressed in relation to a pre-eruptive seismic unrest and a subsequent volcanic eruption in Iceland in 2019–2021. We show that although these geohazards were of a small size and caused negligible material damage, they were associated with a measurable change in expressed emotions in the local population. The seismic unrest was associated with predominantly negative sentiments (positive-to-negative sentiment ratio of 1:1.3), but the eruption was associated with predominantly positive sentiments (positive-to-negative sentiment ratio of 1.4:1). We demonstrate a cost-effective tool for gauging public discourse that could be used in risk management.

A Composite Seismic Source Model for the First Major Event During the 2022 Hunga (Tonga) Volcanic Eruption

AbstractThe violent eruption of the Hunga (Tonga) submarine volcano on 15 January 2022 caused a 58 km‐heigh ash plume, catastrophic tsunami, and significant global seismic and infrasound waves. However, the physical mechanism underpinning its multiple‐explosive events remains unclear, and its resolvability relies on the seismic waveform source inversion. The studies of two different point‐source models, the seismic moment tensor (MT) and the single force (SF), have been performed separately for this eruption, which, interestingly, can explain the seismic data adequately. Here, we use a joint inversion of MT and SF to unravel a composite source of an explosion‐like MT and a significant upward force for the first major explosive event. Regarding the direction and magnitude, we propose that the upward force is likely a rebound force in response to the pressure drop on the seafloor because the water body above the volcano was abruptly uplifted by the shallow underwater explosion.

Debris‐flow fan channel avulsions: An important secondary erosional process along the Ichino‐sawa torrent, Japan

AbstractSediment transported from debris‐flow initiation zones is typically stored in a topographic feature called a debris‐flow fan, the formation process of which governs secondary sediment transport further downstream. Although sediment transport from debris‐flow fans can impact sediment regimes and change landforms, the determinants of progressive fan formation are not well constrained. To identify such determinants, this study monitored debris flows and performed topographic surveys of debris‐flow fans in the Ichino‐sawa torrent (Japan) during 2016–2017. In this period, eight debris flows occurred, two of which eroded the existing fan and formed a new channel with a short recurrence interval (~40 days). Consequently, these two cases induced substantial sediment transport further downstream from the fan. The examined rainfall indices did not provide a threshold for diagnosing the occurrence of such sediment transport. Debris flows with a large flow depth and a long duration led to changes in the runout direction and subsequently formed new channels. Before these processes, the existing channel was backfilled and plugged by previous debris flows, forming a steep fan surface around the fan apex. The results suggest that increasing the magnitude and the duration of debris flows potentially triggers sediment transport from fans coupled with channel plugging. The annual sediment transport from the fan exceeded almost all sediment yields of the world rivers and was found comparable with that linked with volcanic eruptions and their aftermath. Thus, the fan‐formation process can induce substantial sediment transport, independent of volcanic perturbations and extreme climatic events, and is dependent on the sediment supply from repeated occurrence of debris flows in the initiation zones.

Volcanic Ash: A Nutrient Boost for Reef-Building Corals

The interaction between volcanic eruptions and coral reefs are commonly reported to be detrimental to corals. However, recent laboratory experiments on cultured corals exposed to moderate concentrations of volcanic ash, reveal quite the opposite: ash-exposed corals exhibit surprising health improvements compared to the control counterparts.

Adaptive Scenario Planning Development for Indonesian Digital Health Industry: Case Study of Export Support Services (ESS) in Promoting UK Companies Entering Indonesia

The COVID-19 pandemic, once an unpredictable yet plausible future event, has proven to be a reality, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation. Factors such as varying Universal Health Coverage (UHC) maturity, limitations in healthcare infrastructure, and unpredictable private sector moves, including venture capital investments, add to the uncertainty. Like the COVID-19 pandemic, Brexit was another unpredictable yet plausible event that has become a reality. Export Support Service (ESS), a UK Department for Business and Trade (DBT) initiative, assists UK SMEs in expanding beyond the EU post-Brexit, including Indonesia’s digital health sector. The study refines its strategy to navigate the market’s complexities through adaptive scenario planning. This study identified 25 key factors shaping Indonesia’s digital health future and developed three scenarios: “Cherry Blossom Park,” “Volcano Eruptions Amidst a Forest,” and “High-Tech Greenhouse in a Desert.” Each scenario explores implications and opportunities, providing strategic guidance for ESS.

Matrix imaging as a tool for high-resolution monitoring of deep volcanic plumbing systems with seismic noise

Volcanic eruptions necessitate precise monitoring of magma pressure and inflation for improved forecasting. Understanding deep magma storage is crucial for hazard assessment, yet imaging these systems is challenging due to complex heterogeneities that disrupt standard seismic migration techniques. Here we map the magmatic and hydrothermal system of the La Soufrière volcano in Guadeloupe by analyzing seismic noise data from a sparse geophone array under a matrix formalism. Seismic noise interferometry provides a reflection matrix containing the signature of echoes from deep heterogeneities. Using wave correlations resistant to disorder, matrix imaging successfully unscrambles wave distortions, revealing La Soufrière’s internal structure down to 10 km with 100 m resolution. This method surpasses the diffraction limit imposed by geophone array aperture, providing crucial data for modeling and high-resolution monitoring. We see matrix imaging as a revolutionary tool for understanding volcanic systems and enhancing observatories’ abilities to monitor dynamics and forecast eruptions.

Influence of Natural External Forcings on Interdecadal Variation of Global Land Monsoon over the Last Millennium in CESM-LME

Abstract Interdecadal variations of the global land monsoon have been previously attributed to internal fluctuations of the climate system, but the role of natural external forcings was underexplored. Here, we investigate this issue by using the Community Earth System Model ensemble simulations over the last millennium (LM) (AD 950–1850). Our analysis reveals that the surface temperature, with two dominant structures (global cooling/warming and longitudinal sea surface temperature gradient in the tropical Pacific, which affects the Walker circulation), predominantly shapes the leading forced mode of the global land monsoon. This mode, representing 19% of the total variance, manifests as consistent features across South Asia, the southern part of East Asia, North Australia, South America, and western South Africa, contrasting with other monsoon regions. Under global cooling conditions, the monsoon intensity is enhanced in the northern parts of the East Asian and eastern parts of the North and South African monsoons, but it decreases in the other monsoon regions. Under weak Walker circulation conditions, changes in atmospheric circulation in response to the sea surface temperature gradient in the tropical Pacific are associated with a substantial attenuation of almost all land monsoon regions. It was further shown that the global mean surface temperature and the tropical Pacific temperature gradient jointly account for 75% of the total variance in the leading mode of the global land monsoon, with 29% and 46% as their respective contributions. Furthermore, our results suggest that volcanic eruptions are the dominant external forcing for these variations. These findings provide valuable insights for future research on global monsoon dynamics. Significance Statement Our study using the Community Earth System Model reveals that surface temperature significantly impacts decadal global land monsoon (GLM) variations during the last millennium. Two key factors in relation to global-scale cooling/warming and changes in the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature gradient affect the GLM’s leading forced mode. The leading forced GLM features remain consistent across regions like South Asia, southern East Asia, North Australia, South America, and western South Africa. Under global cooling, monsoon intensities in most land monsoon regions are enhanced, while they are reduced in northern East Asian land monsoon regions. In contrast, weak tropical Pacific temperature gradient conditions cause a decrease in intensities in almost all land monsoon regions. Additionally, the global mean surface temperature and the tropical Pacific temperature gradient account for 75% of the total variance in the leading forced GLM variations, contributing 29% and 46%, respectively. Notably, volcanic eruptions emerge as the key external factor influencing these variations.

Some questions of the connection between mud volcanism and seismicity in Azerbaijan

The article discusses some issues of the genetic connection between mud volcanic activity in Azerbaijan and seismicity, the results of monitoring studies of mud volcanoes characterized by active gryphon-salsa activity between eruptions located in tectonic structures of different ages. For the first time, an anomalous change in Br and J, mainly associated with Paleogene-Miocene deposits, was established in the chemical composition of the studied waters based on hydrogeochemical indicators of volcanic activation. The established differences in the studied waters are associated with the location of mud volcanoes within different oil and gas bearing regions of Azerbaijan and the lithofacies features of terrigenous-carbonate rocks in mud volcanic breccia. The above measurements of the temperature of waters carried by mud volcanoes to the earth’s surface confirmed the previously obtained results: during quiet activity of volcanoes, fluids are carried out from Pliocene deposits, and when their gryphon-salsa activity is activated, they are diluted with fluids coming from the depths of the Paleogene-Miocene age. Analyzing various intervals of “rest” between eruptions of mud volcanoes, tracing changes occurring in small crater fields (cracks, subsidence, etc.), the seismogeological material we have accumulated allows us to make an estimated forecast (as a long-term one) of the eruption of a mud volcano within one year.

Investigation of anomalous lightning activity during the January 15, 2022 Tonga volcano eruption based on measurements of the VLF and ELF electromagnetic fields

An anomalous increase in the level of Very Low Frequency (VLF, 3–30 kHz) and Extremely Low Frequency (ELF, 3–3000 Hz) radio noise and the rate of VLF atmospherics was registered during the explosive eruption of the Tonga volcano on January 15, 2022 at the Akademik Vernadsky station (65.246°S; 64.257°W) about 8870 km from the volcano. At the peak activity around 5 UT, the number of atmospherics in 2-min intervals increased by almost 15 times compared to the period preceding the eruption. At this point, the estimated rate reached 360 VLF atmospherics per second. At the same time, an increase in the power spectral density of the magnetic field by 5–9 times was observed in both the ELF and VLF ranges. After 40 min, only on ELF an increased peak lasting ∼10 min was observed, comparable in magnitude to the main peak. According to the Worldwide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN), increased thunderstorm activity was concentrated very close to the volcano during this period. This discrepancy between the intensities of ELF and VLF radiation suggests a significant difference in the parameters of currents in lightning discharges occurring in the area of the volcano vent and in the area of the volcanic ash plume.

VOLCANBOX: A software platform for volcanic hazard assessment

Volcanic eruptions have an intrinsic multi-hazard nature, in which a variety of volcanic products (lava flows, fallout, lahars, and pyroclastic flows) and associated hazards (seismic shocks, landslides, tsunamis, or floods) may interact and impact sequentially. Volcanic hazard assessment relies on probabilistic approaches based on the past eruptive history, from which scientists identify eruptive scenarios and their expected recurrence. However, not enough attempts have yet been made to address volcanic hazard assessment in a systematic way, based on principles that may be equally applicable to different volcanoes and volcanic zones regardless of their particular nature. Hence, we present VOLCANBOX, a new multiplatform (GNU/Linux, MacOS, Windows) system designed to conduct long-and short-term volcanic hazard assessment and risk analysis in a systematic and rational manner, aimed at reducing volcanic risk by anticipating future eruptions. VOLCANBOX includes several sets of software tools designed to evaluate long and short-term volcanic hazards, to conduct vulnerability analysis, and to assist decision-makers during the management of a volcanic crisis. VOLCANBOX can be implemented before an emergency, in order to identify optimum mitigating actions and how these may have to be adapted as new information is obtained. VOLCANBOX is aimed at experts in volcanic hazard and risk assessment and management and is designed to facilitate the interaction and cooperation between scientists, policy makers and civil protection agencies to anticipate volcanic disasters in a timely manner, by quantifying volcanic hazards, understanding volcanic unrest, forecasting volcanic eruptions, and identifying the most probable scenarios in a simple and clear manner.

Presenting a Long-Term, Reprocessed Dataset of Global Sea Surface Temperature Produced Using the OSTIA System

Over the past few decades, the oceans have stored the majority of the excess heat in the climate system resulting from anthropogenic emissions. An accurate, long-term sea surface temperature (SST) dataset is essential for monitoring and researching the changes to the global oceans. A variety of SST datasets have been produced by various institutes over the years, and here, we present a new SST data record produced originally within the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (which is therefore named CMEMS v2.0) and assess: (1) its accuracy compared to independent observations; (2) how it compares with the previous version (named CMEMS v1.2); and (3) its performance during two major volcanic eruptions. By comparing both versions of the CMEMS datasets using independent in situ observations, we show that both datasets are within the target accuracy of 0.1 K, but that CMEMS v2.0 is closer to the ground truth. The uncertainty fields generated by the two analyses were also compared, and CMEMS v2.0 was found to provide a more accurate estimate of its own uncertainties. Frequency and vector analysis of the SST fields determined that CMEMS v2.0 feature resolution and horizontal gradients were also superior, indicating that it resolved oceanic features with greater clarity. The behavior of the two analyses during two volcanic eruption events (Mt. Pinatubo and El Chichón) was examined. A comparison with the HadSST4 gridded in situ dataset suggested a cool bias in the CMEMS v2.0 dataset versus the v1.2 dataset following the Pinatubo eruption, although a comparison with sparser buoy-only observations yielded less clear results. No clear impact of the El Chichón eruption (which was a smaller event than Mt. Pinatubo) on CMEMS v2.0 was found. Overall, with the exception of a few specific and extreme events early in the time series, CMEMS v2.0 possesses high accuracy, resolution, and stability and is recommended to users.

Implications of tragic experiences on symbolic power: The case of displaced persons in Kenya

Displacement of human populations is a common phenomenon from natural and human causes. Conflict and natural disasters such as floods, volcanic eruptions, landslides, out-breaks of diseases are among the regular culprits. Victims of displacement experience dramatic changes in their life situations a common denominator being temporary and at times permanent deprivation of crucial resources for their daily lives. This affects their place in the social hierarchy among members of their host community. The displaced persons in Kenya following the 2007-2008 post-election violence were uprooted from their homes and deprived of their property. They lived in camps and with well-wishers depending on assistance from others. How does this affect their social station in life and how do they manifest? This paper examines the effect of displacement on the perception and treatment of the affected persons by their host communities. The paper utilizes qualitative methods to analyze the discourse of the displaced persons, providing a deeper understanding of their experiences upon displacement. The paper was guided by insights from Critical Discourse Analysis and Pierre Bourdieu’s theoretical concepts of capital, symbolic power and symbolic violence the paper. It brings to light the sudden changes in the perceptions and social evaluations of the victims and their response to the undesired changes. The paper comes to the conclusion that the new life status leads to new self-evaluations as well as the evaluations by those around them and the displaced persons lose symbolic capital and symbolic power and come to the receiving end of symbolic violence. In so doing, the paper illuminates the plight of the displaced persons beyond the evident material loses and recommends interventions to address these effects.

Experimental Study on Ocular Surface Protection by Soft Contact Lenses Due to Volcanic Ash Exposure.

Background: Sudden volcanic eruptions can lead to volcanic ash entering the eyes, causing severe discomfort and complicating evacuation efforts. The specific effects of volcanic ash on ocular tissues, especially when wearing soft contact lenses (SCLs), are not well documented, prompting this experimental investigation. Methods: White rabbits with normal eyes were randomly divided into three groups: (1) a bare eye group: bare eye + volcanic ash exposure + eye washing, (2) an SCL group: SCL-wearing eye + volcanic ash exposure + eye washing, and (3) a control group: eye washing only. In groups 1 and 2, volcanic ash was applied to one eye under topical anesthesia, followed by immediate saline rinsing. Slit-lamp microscopy and histopathological analysis were conducted after euthanasia. Results: Slit-lamp and histopathological examinations revealed more significant corneal and conjunctival erosion in the bare eye group compared to the SCL group, which showed limited damage. The control group displayed no ocular damage. Conclusions: Guidelines from the "Volcanic Ash Health Effects: A Guide for the Public" by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience recommend removing SCLs during ashfall. Our findings suggest that the damage to the corneal and conjunctival epithelium is less severe in SCL-wearing eyes than in bare eyes, recommending that SCL wearers prioritize evacuation over lens removal during sudden ashfall.

Autoimmune Diseases Following Environmental Disasters: A Narrative Review of the Literature.

Environmental disasters are extreme environmental processes such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, tsunamis, floods, cyclones, storms, wildfires and droughts that are the consequences of the climate crisis due to human intervention in the environment. Their effects on human health have alarmed the global scientific community. Among them, autoimmune diseases, a heterogeneous group of disorders, have increased dramatically in many parts of the world, likely as a result of changes in our exposure to environmental factors. However, only a limited number of studies have attempted to discover and analyze the complex association between environmental disasters and autoimmune diseases. This narrative review has therefore tried to fill this gap. First of all, the activation pathways of autoimmunity after environmental disasters have been analyzed. It has also been shown that wildfires, earthquakes, desert dust storms and volcanic eruptions may damage human health and induce autoimmune responses to inhaled PM2.5, mainly through oxidative stress pathways, increased pro-inflammatory cytokines and epithelial barrier damage. In addition, it has been shown that heat stress, in addition to increasing pro-inflammatory cytokines, may also disrupt the intestinal barrier, thereby increasing its permeability to toxins and pathogens or inducing epigenetic changes. In addition, toxic volcanic elements may accelerate the progressive destruction of myelin, which may potentially trigger multiple sclerosis. The complex and diverse mechanisms by which vector-borne, water-, food-, and rodent-borne diseases that often follow environmental diseases may also trigger autoimmune responses have also been described. In addition, the association between post-disaster stress and the onset or worsening of autoimmune disease has been demonstrated. Given all of the above, the rapid restoration of post-disaster health services to mitigate the flare-up of autoimmune conditions is critical.

Manajemen Risiko terhadap Nilai Klaim Asuransi Rangka Kapal Berdasarkan ITC (Institute Time Clause) Hull 1.10.83 Clause 280 (All Risks Comprehensive) Pada Kapal BG. TRG 06

This qualitative study aims to examine the implementation of risk management in hull insurance by collecting data through interviews with the risk management staff of Asuransi Mitra Pelindung Mustika Ltd. The findings revealed that this company has applied the risk management process, including risk identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation, risk control, risk transfer through other insurance policies, monitoring, and review. The company covers losses due to fire, explosion, violent theft, piracy, accidents involving installations, collisions with aircraft or similar objects, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, lightning strikes, accidents during loading or refuelling, boiler explosions, machinery shaft breakage, or latent defects in the machinery, hull, or frame of the insured vessel. Asuransi Mitra Pelindung Mustika Ltd. also compensates for losses due to the negligence of the captain, officers, or crew of the insured vessel, as well as the shipyard. Time to process the claim becomes a significant challenge in fulfilling the insured's rights in the claim for the BG. TRG 06 vessel because it takes up to 14 days to gather all the necessary documents. This company will cover all repair costs and labor expenses, with an estimated total value of IDR 7,611,100,000.00.

Long-term evolution of the Sulzberger Ice Shelf, West Antarctica: Insights from 74-year observations and 2022 Hunga-Tonga volcanic tsunami-induced calving

On January 15, 2022, the eruption of the Hunga-Tonga volcano unleashed a tsunami that rapidly traversed the Pacific Ocean, soon reaching the Sulzberger Ice Shelf (SIS), West Antarctica. In the aftermath, the West Sulzberger Ice Shelf (WSIS) experienced a significant calving event, shedding 106 km2 of ice and reducing its size to the smallest recorded since 1948. To investigate the potential association between this calving event and the tsunami, and to elucidate the long-term evolution of the WSIS, this study employed tide gage records and remote sensing data for an extensive cross-cycle observation spanning 74 years. The results indicate that post-2014, the WSIS exhibited heightened instability, manifesting as an increased frequency of calving events, a shift from an expanding to a contracting shelf area, and accelerated ice flow velocities (Video S1). The critical rift, instrumental in the 2022 calving, also displayed an accelerated widening rate post-2014, culminating in rapid expansion upon the tsunami's arrival, completing the final 2% of the iceberg's detachment boundary. Modeling results quantify the tsunami induced flexural strains on the ice shelf, with peak values occurring near the region of the subsequent calving event. Notably, multiple calving events during the study period coincided with local minima in landfast sea ice extent, underscoring its protective role for the ice shelf. Furthermore, a significant decline in landfast sea ice near the SIS had been observed over the past two decades, suggesting a weakening of this protective effect. A combination of modeling results and comparative analysis with other similar calving events suggests that tsunamis tend to expedite ice shelf calving predominantly when the shelf is already teetering on instability, which casts a shadow on the SIS's future resilience against natural hazards.

Analisis Pemberitaan Banjir Lahar Dingin di Sumatera Barat dalam Media Detik.com dan Antaranwes.com

News related to the cold lava flood disaster in West Sumatra that was broadcasted in print, electronic and online media became public consumption, causing perceptions in the community. Online media both Antaranews.com and Detik.com have news related to cold lava floods in West Sumatra. The media provided information from different perspectives in presenting the news. The floods came from material from Mount Marapi that erupted some time ago, most of which was on the slopes of the mountain. The material was washed away by rainwater downstream. Meanwhile, Antaranews.com provides information to the public by quoting the statement of Andalas University researchers that the accumulation of fallen tree material in the upper reaches of the Batang Anai river became a natural dam, due to the volcanic eruption of Mount Marapi accompanied by high rainfall as the cause of the collapse of natural dams and resulting floods. Framing analysis is viewed from syntactic, thematic, script and rhetorical structures. This research uses a qualitative approach with the theory of Zhongdang Pan and M. Kosicki. The results prove that the two online media have different points of view and news packaging, each emphasizing based on the data and facts received. After analyzing the two news articles, the researcher concluded that both news articles provided information on the causes of the flood disaster in West Sumatra. However, if seen in the Detik.com online media, the floods were caused by moderate to heavy rains that washed away volcanic material from the eruption of Mount Marapi in the form of cold lava. Another case with the information put forward by the Antaranews.com media that the flood was caused by the collapse of a natural dam in the upstream section of the Batang Anai river due to the vibration of the volcanic earthquake of Mount Marapi accompanied by high rainfall.

Paleomagnetism‐Based Chronology of Holocene Lava Flows at Mt Ruapehu, Aotearoa New Zealand

AbstractDating young lava flows is essential for understanding volcano's eruption frequency, yet challenging due to methodological limitations of commonly used dating techniques. Ruapehu (Aotearoa New Zealand) produced many lava flows during the Holocene, but constraints on the timing of these eruptions are scarce. Here, we use paleomagnetic dating to deliver new eruption ages of 18 lava flows with uncertainties ranging between 500 and 2,700 years (at the 95% confidence level). Comparison between lava flows' paleomagnetic directions and a local paleosecular variation record indicates that the large lava flow field located on the Whakapapa area was emplaced during at least three distinct eruptive episodes between 10600 and 7400 BP. Two of these episodes closely followed a large collapse event that affected Ruapehu's northern area and generated large volumes of lava between 10600 and 8800 BP, with the third episode producing less voluminous lava flows between 8100 and 7400 BP. Following a smaller collapse of the southeastern sector of the edifice at ca. 5300 BP, several low‐volume lava flows were emplaced during at least two distinct eruptive episodes prior to ca. 1000 BP, which supplied the Whangaehu valley with lava. The youngest age inferred from our data represents the youngest eruption age provided for a lava flow outside Ruapehu's summit region. This research provides greater detail to the Holocene effusive chronology at Ruapehu, shedding light on partial cone reconstructions after edifice collapses during the Holocene, and the time relationships between trends observed in its effusive and explosive activity.