Erroneous Decisions Research Articles

Educators as Judges: Applying Judicial Decision-Making Principles to High-Stakes Education Assessment Decisions

Phenomenon: Programmatic assessment and competency-based education have highlighted the need to make robust high-stakes assessment decisions on learner performance from evidence of varying types and quality. Without guidance, lengthy deliberations by decision makers and competence committees can end inconclusively with unresolved concerns. These decisional dilemmas are heightened by their potential impacts. For learners, erroneous decisions may lead to an unjustified exit from a long-desired career, or premature promotion to clinical responsibilities. For educators, there is the risk of wrongful decision-making, leading to successful appeals and mistrust. For communities, ill-prepared graduates risk the quality and safety of care. Approaches such as psychometric analyses are limited when decision-makers are faced with seemingly contradictory qualitative and quantitative evidence about the same individual. Expertise in using such evidence to make fair and defensible decisions is well established in judicial practice but is yet to be practically applied to assessment decision-making. Approach: Through interdisciplinary exchange, we investigated medical education and judicial perspectives on decision-making to explore whether principles of decision-making in law could be applied to educational assessment decision-making. Using Dialogic Inquiry, an iterative process of scholarly and mutual critique, we contrasted assessment decision making in medical education with judicial practice to identify key principles in judicial decision-making relevant to educational assessment decisions. We developed vignettes about common but problematic high-stakes decision-making scenarios to test how these principles could apply. Findings: Over 14 sessions, we identified, described, and applied four principles for fair, reasonable, and transparent assessment decision-making. These were: The person whose interests are affected has a right to know the case against them, and to be heard. Reasons for the decision should be given. Rules should be transparent and consistently applied. Like cases should be treated alike and unlike cases treated differently. Reflecting our dialogic process, we report findings by separately presenting the medical educator and judicial perspectives, followed by a synthesis describing a preferred approach to decision-making in three vignettes. Insights: Judicial principles remind educators to consider both sides of arguments, to be consistent, and to demonstrate transparency when making assessment decisions. Dialogic Inquiry is a useful approach for generating interdisciplinary insights on challenges in medical education by critiquing difference (e.g., the meaning of objectivity) and achieving synthesis where possible (e.g., fairness is not equal treatment of all cases). Our principles and exemplars provide groundwork for promoting good practice and furthering assessment research toward fairer and more robust decisions that will assist learning.

Identifying water quality and environmental factors that influence indicator and pathogen decay in natural surface waters

Biphasic decay has been observed for indicators and pathogens in bench-scale and in-situ water experiments for decades, however, first-order decay kinetics continue to be applied to persistence data because of their simplicity and ease of application. Model uncertainty introduced by broadly applying first-order decay kinetics to persistence data may lead to erroneous decision making in the fields of water management and protection. As surface waters are exposed to highly variable environmental and water quality factors that influence microbial and viral persistence, it is expected that first-order decay kinetics are not representative of most of the persistence literature for indicators and pathogens in surface water matrices. This review compiled the methods and results of 61 studies that conducted experiments evaluating the persistence of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB), bacteriophages, pathogenic bacteria, viruses, and protozoa in natural surface water matrices. The goals of this review were trifold: (1) collate studies in the literature with data available for future persistence modeling, (2) present the current state of knowledge with regards to the environmental and water quality factors affecting persistence in natural surface waters, and (3) identify recurrent evidence for interactions between the frequently studied factors to inform future factor analyses. Comparing the methods and results across the 61 studies suggest potential interactions between sunlight and water type; sunlight and method of detection; predation and water type; predation and temperature; and water type and method of detection. The majority of the identified literature evaluated FIB or bacteria persistence; future experiments are needed that focus on protozoa, brackish or marine water types, and molecular-based methods of detection.

Экспериментально-психологическая оценка критичности больных параноидной шизофренией на основе изучения когнитивных функций

The study attempted to experimentally evaluate cognitive correlates of lack of insight (understood as a metacognitive function — ability to recognize and correct erroneous decisions). The sample of patients with paranoid schizophrenia (N=100, mean age 33.2±8.1 years) was divided into two groups based on clinical indicators of insight: data about patients’ attitude to their erroneous decisions, personality and symptoms. Group characteristic: high insight n=61; low insight n=39. The assumption about factor structure of insight was made and factors were constructed by confirmatory factor analysis. The final model included 9 quantitative parameters of insight. The first factor included: Diligence, Interest to the Results, Adequate Understanding of purpose of survey, Response to comment, Response to help. The second — External control, Response to errors, Perception of instruction, Awareness to symptoms. Cognitive functioning were assessed by: Standard battery of neuropsychological assessment (subtests “Clock faces”, “Portraits”, series of plot pictures “Apple tree”, “Involuntary recall”, Poppelreuter Overlapping figures test, “Incomplete images”); Schulte table; Amatuni–Vasserman Digit cancellation test; The Wechsler adult intelligence scale (WAIS) (subtests “Similarities”, “Digit span”, “Digit symbol coding”); Zeigarnik Exclusion of items; Trail making test (TMT); Brief assessment of cognition in schizophrenia battery (BACS) (subtests “Verbal memory”, “Digit sequencing”, “Verbal fluency”, “Symbol coding”); Rey–Osterrieth Complex figure (ROCF); Hopkins verbal learning test (HVLT). The low insight patients showed poorer performance in various cognitive domains. Such as verbal learning and visual-motor memory, attention shifting, processing speed, executive function. In addition, the severity of lack of insight was significant for differences in number of distortions in visual perception task and severity of formal thought disorder. These results could be used in process of experimental insight assessment tools development and therapeutic interventions targeted on metacognitive deficit of schizophrenia patients.

АВТОМАТИЗАЦІЯ БІЗНЕС-ПРОЦЕСІВ ЯК НЕОБХІДНА УМОВА ЕФЕКТИВНОСТІ ОРГАНІЗАЦІЙ

The use of advanced technologies to complete business processes with minimal human intervention is known as "business process automation". The purpose of automation is to replace manual human labor with machine labor and optimize the entire production process. With the help of modern technologies of machine interaction, automated parameter control systems are implemented at factories, the data of which is transferred to the server and processed. Taking into account the analysis of this data, the machine itself decides on any action. Automation speeds up work by redirecting information to the right person at the right time with user-defined rules and actions, helping managers move to a new, higher level of management. It gives an opportunity to focus on the company's strategic goals. Automation is currently a very relevant and important direction in the field of theory and practice of business process management. Its main goal is to increase the socio-economic efficiency of the enterprise through the purposeful implementation of software and hardware systems that increase the speed and accuracy of the implementation of business processes, while minimizing erroneous actions and decisions arising under the influence of the so-called "human factor". The automation system helps to turn monotonous manual work into automatic, making such work more technological and advanced. Enterprises work in a highly competitive environment, therefore, they need constant development, use of best practices and new technologies. With the increase in the number of management tasks in large systems, the volume of processed information increases significantly and the complexity of management algorithms increases. As a result, there is a mismatch between the complexity of the managed object and the ability of any governing body to receive and process information. Therefore, the automation of business processes is a necessary condition for the company's survival in the modern world. Automation of business processes is one of the fastest growing technologies today. Businesses need to do less with more and ensure their processes are as efficient and effective as possible. To do this, they turn to business process automation software to scale processes, solve unique workflow challenges, and maximize productivity.

ПРОБЛЕМЫ СОВЕРШЕНСТВОВАНИЯ ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОГО УПРАВЛЕНИЯ В УСЛОВИЯХ ГЛОБАЛЬНЫХ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ

The authors examined the main natural and social factors that have a negative impact on the direction and pace of modern social development in the context of global climate change. Negative climate change is complemented by increasing pollution and environmental degradation. Failure of local authorities to solve environmental problems and the transfer of them to higher level leads to erroneous management decisions. The objective result of this is the strengthening of bureaucratic solidarity on the basis of incompetence, the stimulation of irresponsibility and the preferred orientation towards inaction. To solve the problem of improving public administration, the authors are proposed and substantiated the main measures of public policy and management in relation to the basic resources of life support. The necessity of more intensive integration of efforts of scientists and specialists with the authorities is argued.

Celebrating 10 years of the Journal of Comparative Effectiveness Research.

Celebrating 10 years of the Journal of Comparative Effectiveness Research.

A Method for Endpoint Aware Inspection in a Network Security Solution

Due to the surge in remote work after the outbreak of COVID-19, network security has gained an enormous focus. The issue of erroneous inspection decisions in network security solutions has long been criticised, but the importance of the decision accuracy has never been as important as today. In this paper we provide a solution for improving the inspection decision accuracy by specifying a method for endpoint aware inspection in a network security solution capable of performing deep packet inspection. The method utilises a subset of the protected network to gather hash fingerprints from the endpoint application network traffic patterns. The information gathered from this subset is then utilised for gaining endpoint awareness for the rest of the protected network. We use methods that work on the application layer of the protocol stack. This makes the method applicable not only for local implementations, such as NGFWs and IPSs, but also for SaaS and SASE solutions. The method is, however, easily utilised with lower layer information, such as network and transport layer information, for operating system awareness as well. We also present a proof-of-concept case study where we observe that, of the applicable network connections, 100% could be identified when the operating system and endpoint application were present in the source group. To our knowledge, this is the first method to enhance the inspection process accuracy by leveraging a subset of the protected network to gain endpoint awareness.

Национальный тип уголовного процесса как результат политических решений

Introduction. Familiarization with advanced European standards (largely formed by the Code of Napoleon of 1808) in the field of criminal justice led to the emergence of full-fledged functions of justice, judicial control, prosecution carried out by the prosecutor's office, criminal case investigation, defense on the basis of the Russian legal tradition. At the same time, the historical factor is not the only determinant of the formation of the type of process. Goal. To identify and analyze the key political decisions that influenced the formation of the type and functional content of Russian criminal proceedings. Methodology. For the purposes of this study, the universal method of cognition, as well as methods characteristic of empirical research of a concrete historical, comparative legal nature, etc., are used. Results. The study revealed a number of erroneous political decisions that had a significant impact on the formation of the type of Russian criminal process and its functional content. Among them: the formation of criminal procedure legislation based on private technological theory; the active involvement of American experts in the preparation of the draft Code of Criminal Procedure; the rejection of truth as a goal of proof; the desire for a total expansion of competition; a distorted, one-sided understanding of the goals and objectives of the criminal process. Conclusion. The political factor has a dual nature. Defining it only as objective is hardly correct and possible. Being derived from the process of historical development, it is influenced by the subjective will of a person (prince, sovereign, the emperor, the president) or a group of persons who have the ability to make or influence the adoption of key political decisions.

Аналіз методів корекції похибок вимірювальних приладів

The article is devoted to the study of methods for correcting errors of measuring devices. Features of the application of correction of multiplicative and additive component errors are considered. The article investigated the methods of correcting the errors of the measuring instruments as part of the measuring systems. This made it possible to find ways to improve the accuracy of measurements. Sample signal methods and test methods based on the functional transformation of measuring devices during a cycle of specially organized measurements were studied. An analysis of various error correction methods caused by static and dynamic factors has been carried out. Literary sources were studied, which consider ways to eliminate the influence of instrumental error. Thus, to eliminate the instrumental error, separate correction coefficients representing the relative values of the probabilities of erroneous decisions were considered. During the study, inverse mathematical models of measuring channels were considered, as which Lagrange interpolation polynomials are used. A method of eliminating the influence of the parameters of the additive and multiplicative component of the measurement on the accuracy of the test method is proposed by creating additional inverse converters and a system of equations describing the transformation of the input values of the measuring converter in each measuring cycle, which can be used to obtain the adjusted value of the measured value. The effectiveness of this improvement for use as part of the information and measurement system is substantiated. It is shown that the most important directions for improving the efficiency of such a system are the provision of the necessary experimental base, as well as the accuracy of setting correction algorithms.

The development of the Communist Party within the left movement of Venezuela (1928—1945)

The article analyzes the relationship of the communist movement with other left-wing opposition parties and movements from the very beginning of the formation of opposition to the dictatorial regime of Juan Vicente Gomez in the 1920s until the military coup in 1945. The commitment to the formation of a political party solely on the basis of the proletarian electorate had a decisive importance in the issue of interaction of communists with the rest of the Venezuelan opposition and led to the loss of the Communist Party's ability to lead the masses in the struggle against the regime in the period after the dissolution, which was reflected in the events that occurred after the dissolution of the Third, Communist, International. The work is based on a structuralist approach to the historical process and, while analyzing the development of the Communist Party within the framework of the left movement through the study of domestic and foreign bibliography, is based on archival documents of the III Comintern Communist International. In the article, the author identifies the features and main trends in the development of the Communist Party of Venezuela, and comes to conclusions about the role of the communist movement in the development of the left movement of Venezuela and its role in the development of the left movement. The development of the Communist Party of the country of Venezuela at the first stages of its development directly depended on the policy of the Comintern of Moscow, which could sometimes lead to erroneous decisions that led to a split in the ranks of the Venezuelan communists and the loss of potential allies.

Learning Future Reference Patterns for Efficient Cache Replacement Decisions

This study proposes a cache replacement policy technique to increase the cache hit rate. This policy can improve the efficiency of cache management and performance. Heuristic cache replacement policies are mechanisms that are designed empirically in advance to determine what needs to be replaced. This study explains why the heuristic policy does not achieve a high accuracy for certain patterns of data. A machine learning method is proposed to predict the blocks that need to be requested in the future to prevent erroneous decisions. The core operation of the proposed method is that when a cache miss occurs, the machine learning model predicts a future block reference sequence that is based on the block reference sequence of the input sequence. The predicted block is added to the prediction buffer and the predicted block is removed from the non-access buffer if it exists in the non-access buffer. After filling the prediction buffer, the conventional replacement policy can be replaced with a time complexity of O(1) by replacing the block with a non-access buffer. The proposed method improves the least recently used (LRU) algorithm by 77%, the least frequently used (LFU) algorithm by 65%, and the adaptive replacement cache (ARC) by 77% and shows a hit rate similar to that of state-of-the-art research. The proposed method reinforces the existing heuristic policy and enables a consistent performance for LRU- and LFU-friendly workloads.

Portfolio Based Style Analysis of Equity Mutual Funds in Pakistan

The investment style has become a prominent concept in investment management. The researcher highlights the significance of selecting the right style benchmarks and the use of unsuitable style benchmarks an erroneous decision. This study extends and applies new measures of portfolio performance of the mutual funds, which are primarily based on the characteristics of the equity stocks (book-to-market, price to earnings, market capitalization, dividend yield, and momentum). The technique of style analysis specifically, is the portfoliobased style analysis of the open-ended equity mutual funds of Pakistan. The data has been taken from the Mutual Fund Association of Pakistan from 2010 to 2014. The findings relate to adding a new factor of price to earnings in a model, so the net effect is tested from multivariate regression analysis. All the portfolios are found to be negative and significant for the price to earnings. It is appropriate by making portfolios regarding style analysis of equity mutual funds in Pakistan. Decision-makers of the mutual funds should carefully account for all the factors, to benefit from the returns of the funds regarding investing, financing and valuation decision.

Application of Simulation Technologies for Formation of Safety Related Competences

The formation of safety-related competencies is a difficult task. These specific safety competencies, unlike other competencies, are difficult to fully develop by providing safety learners and students. Simulation Technologies could be the solution to make it easier for students to develop competencies related to human safety. In this thesis, the following methods were used: analysis of scientific literature, projective methods, mathematical methods – in particular registration and ranking, theoretical methods including: analysis, synthesis, generalization, comparison, conclusions, modeling, induction, deduction. The study showed that the use of simulation technologies allows creating conditions for the formation of the necessary competencies without increased risk for applicants and others. One of the most promising technologies for the formation of safety-related competencies is the use of virtual reality. The use of simulation technologies in the educational process will intensify it and improve the quality of education. Simulation technologies should take a special place in the training of specialists whose professional activities are associated with increased risk, as well as with significant negative consequences of erroneous decisions, in particular in the training of rescuers, military specialists, police, operators of complex systems (including transport, nuclear, etc.), medical workers, in the aerospace industry, etc.

Определение рациональных значений параметров контейнерного депо

Today, due to the increase in rail freight traffic, there is a shortage of containers, and the issue of shortage of containers has not been resolved for a long time. This substantiates the practical relevance of the study of container depots in railway transport. Another task is the development of mathematical models of the interconnection of the parameters of the container depot. Currently, there are several different methods and methods for calculating and determining the parameters of container sites, the analysis of which is given in the article. However, there is a need to supplement, clarify and unify the existing methods for calculating all kinds of parameters for a container depot, which justifies the theoretical relevance of the study. Connections with which the purpose of the article is to develop a methodology for the reliable determination of the most rational values of the parameters of the container terminal, thereby improving and increasing the level of customer service in transport in general. Research methods are based on a systematic analysis and generalization of existing methods and methods for calculating the capacity of container depots. The results of the study are presented by the developed methodology for determining the capacity of warehouses on railway transport, which provides a more qualified calculation and selection of container depot parameters, as well as a decrease in erroneous design decisions and an increase in the reliability of projects for the development and improvement of railway transport and the transport network as a whole.

Method for Forecasting the Efficiency of Matrix Acid Treatment of Carbonate

In the international practice of developing hydrocarbon fields, one of the most common methods of influencing the bottomhole formation zone to stimulate the inflow is acid treatment. Despite the significant accumulated experience, subsoil users increasingly face with a decrease in planned and actual increases in production rates after this type of measures, which is due to both the deterioration of the resource base and the adoption of erroneous decisions during their design. It is necessary to scientifically substantiate the design of acid treatments, taking into account individual well conditions and a preliminary assessment of their effectiveness to reduce technological and economic risks. This study presents a method for predicting the result of acid stimulation on the formation based on multivariate regression analysis and laboratory studies on rock samples. Its approbation was carried out on the example of a carbonate production facility of an oil field in the Perm Krai. The obtained statistical dependencies made it possible to determine with high accuracy the potential success of the planned geological and technical measures, to give recommendations on their adjustment to achieve the target indicators. In the course of laboratory experiments, the optimal technological parameters of the impact were identified: the prospects of multi-volume acid treatments were established with the exclusion of the stage of acid aging for the reaction. The integration of the results of mathematical and physical modeling made it possible to select the required design of acid treatments in relation to the considered geological and physical conditions and assess their expected technological efficiency. The developed technique can be used to rank candidate wells, form and adjust targeted programs for geological and technical measures for short and long term periods, and determine the stimulation technology. The described algorithm can be successfully replicated to other fields.

Impact of Behavioral Biases on Investment Decisions: Moderating Effect of Preferred Sector of Investment

The study aims to recognize the behavioral biases that influence the decisions making process and investment decisions of retail investors while investing in stocks of insurance and pharmaceutical sector stocks. The paper also aims at checking the moderating effect of the preferred sector of investment on these relationships. The conceptual model derived from past literature was checked for its reliability and validity, using measurement model assessment and structural model assessment. Hypothesis or the study were tested using bootstrapping in PLS-SEM. The result of the study revealed that heuristics and prospects have significant influence, while herd behavior has no significant influence on investor’s investment decisions while investing in insurance or pharmaceutical sector securities. The results of the moderation test infer that the relation of heuristic and prospect with investment decision is moderated by the preferred sector of investment. A clear picture of these biases and their influence, established by the findings of the study, would lead to a better understanding of the same and help prevent investors from making erroneous decisions while investing. Investment decisions that are sound and free from behavioral bias, would lead to better financial return, and achievement of investor’s investment goals. The sector-wise effect of investment bias will also help the investors in taking corrective measures.

Clinical intuition in psychotherapy: an approach based on Grounded Theory (La intuición clínica en psicoterapia: una aproximación desde la Teoría Fundamentada)

ABSTRACT The traditional theories about intuition emerged from the study of decision-making, and consider it a typical expert judgment or a heuristic process that generates erroneous decisions. Research into clinical intuition is currently growing, although there are few studies focused on psychotherapy and not associated with a specific theoretical orientation. The purpose of this study was to analyse the use of clinical intuition in psychotherapy, comparing psychological schools. Ten Spanish psychotherapists with at least four years’ experience participated in the study. It had a qualitative design and was based on Grounded Theory. The results found that all professionals use intuition similarly in a bottom-up and non-linear process that captures incongruous information, allowing them to quickly organize complex information and establish working hypotheses that they then contrast with reality, preventing them from functioning heuristically. There is a need for further research on clinical intuition as a common factor of therapy success, and into its possible applications to improve the training and supervision of psychotherapists.

Systematic kinetic study of magnesium production using magnesium oxide and carbonic materials at different temperatures

The main goal of this study was to determine the industrially best reductant for reduction of magnesium oxide to magnesium with wood charcoal and petroleum coke (petcoke) each in molar ratio 1:1 and 1:2 (oxidant:reductant) at high temperatures. In this study, a new and reliable combination of mathematical modeling and discrete numerical optimization theory by presenting 18 “mathematical filters” not relying only on statistical quantities of fitting (contrary to many similar researches) was introduced. The purpose of these filters was the determination of correct kinetic equation and therefore, the corresponding rate coefficient from among 18 equations most used at present in the challenging field of solid state chemical kinetics. With assistance of a new and fundamental mathematical function and the obtained values of rate coefficients, the function of rate coefficient in temperature was attained. The activation energy was then calculated as a function of temperature using the general definition of activation energy and the determined function for rate coefficient. The comparison between different reducing agents in the different conditions and with relevant previous study was accomplished to determine the best reducing agent from industry standpoint. Also, the areas under experimental data were calculated numerically and utilized for method validation and comparison. It turned out finally that relying only on fitting quantities in the solid state chemical kinetics can readily lead to wrong conclusions about the correct kinetic equation and about the most suitable reducing agent. It is obvious that the erroneous calculations and wrong decisions in the laboratory scale become significant and paramount in industry and this reveals the significance of rigorous mathematical analysis.Graphical abstract

Pharmacogenomics testing in patients with liver transplant and potential impact on prospective management.

Aim: Pharmacogenomics (PGx) tests are performed on whole-blood or saliva specimens. In patients with a transplanted liver, PGx results may be discordant with hepatic drug metabolizing enzyme activity. We evaluate the incidence and impact of PGx testing in liver transplant recipients, detail potential errors and describe clinical decision support (CDS) solution implemented. Materials & methods: A retrospective cohort study of liver transplant recipients at Mayo Clinic who underwent PGx testing between 1January 1996 and 7October 2019 were characterized. Impact of a CDS solution was evaluated. Results: There were 129 PGx tests in 117 patients. PGx testing incidence increased before (per year incidence rate ratio=1.45, 95% CI: 1.20-1.74, p<0.001) and after transplant (incidence rate ratio=1.48, 95% CI: 1.27-1.72, p<0.001). Three erroneous PGx tests were avoided 6 months following CDS implementation. Conclusion: Incidence of PGx testing in liver transplant recipients is increasing, leading to erroneous therapeutic decisions. CDS interventions and education are needed to prevent errors.

Sub-band detection of small-sized objects during airspace sensing with ultra-short radio pulses

The possibility of ensuring the safety of flights of aircraft, such as helicopters, at low altitudes, where there is a high probability of unauthorized appearance of small-sized objects such as unmanned aerial vehicles, is being considered. The possibility of solving the problem of detecting such objects on the basis of radar soundings in the resonant frequency range of the UHF radio wave range is considered. Sub-band processing of the received signals is proposed, based on the division of the spectral definition area into sub-bands, for adaptation to the frequency response band and noise filtering. The mathematical apparatus of sub-band signal analysis using sub-band matrices has been developed. An optimal solution to the problem of filtering responses in given sub-bands is obtained. A procedure for processing the received signals is given when making decisions about the presence of a response in a given sub-band. Estimates of the probabilities of erroneous decisions are given for a given probability of errors of the first kind.