Erroneous Decisions Research Articles

Програма розрахунку коксохімічного обладнання на прикладі сульфатного відділення.

It is stated that Ukraine has recently lost a significant part of its industrial capacities, including in the coke industry. Therefore, after the war, the restoration of industrial potential will become an urgent issue. It is shown that a preliminary calculation of all equipment will become an urgent issue. In this regard, a computer programme for such calculations has been prepared on the basis of the methods developed by SE "UKHIN" and NTU "KhPI". The programme includes a number of typical sections that have the same internal structure. Organizationally, the programme consists of a number of sections, namely: table of contents; general information; initial data; calculations; calculation results; references; reference book; user manual. The programme allows you to perform calculations of both individual technological units and the entire technological chain. The basic principles of this programme are explained using the example of the sulphate department of a coking chemicals recovery shop. The algorithm was developed on the basis of Excel spreadsheets and includes calculations of material and heat flows of the technological process. The calculation allows for the selection of equipment and determination of the main parameters of the equipment. Relevant reference data is provided for selecting and adjusting physical constants and key process parameters. The calculation programme is accompanied by appropriate explanations that facilitate the selection of constants and parameters. This makes it possible to adjust the calculation progress. To prevent erroneous decisions from being made, appropriate blocking of incorrect data has been introduced. Such information will be useful for specialists in the field of coke oven equipment design, as well as for teachers and students of higher education institutions in the relevant field. Keywords: ammonia, coke industry, computer programme, technological units, equipment, ammonium sulphate, saturator, dryer. Corresponding author A.O. Zhuravskiy, e–mail: azhuravskiy@mail.ua

METHODOLOGICAL FOUNDATIONS OF SOCIOLOGY OF MANAGEMENT

Empirical studies of sociology of management need adequate methodology particularly because the re-sults of these studies influence managerial decisions. The authors identify the relevant methodological principles and demonstrate their evolution from antiquity to the present. They note that methodological foundations can lead to invalidity of empirical data and to risk of erroneous decisions in case these foun-dations are used outside the worldview on the basis of which they were formed. The science about meth-ods, or methodology, has passed through three stages in its development since antiquity to the present day: metaphysical, dialectical, and tektological. These stages replaced each other, modifying and incorpo-rating into the subsequent ones. The authors justify that the methodology of sociology of management, based on the three-level model «fundamental methodology –middle level’s theory –empirical research»,began its full-fledged development starting from Hawthorne experiments.During these experiments the principles of the Taylorian concept of organization were first rethought critically, by E. Mayo. The au-thors note a tendency in contemporary research on sociology of management toward a focus on normative power and moral means of involvement. Many fundamental approaches in sociology of management are linked with the complex of ideas of Alexander Bogdanov’s tektology: contemporary methodology of so-ciology ofmanagement is based on the tektological principle of organization. The authors offer a model of sociological research on and improvement of management mechanisms in organizations that was de-veloped on the basis of practical consulting experience.

Investment Court System: A Cure for the ‘Broken’ ISDS

This paper discusses the EU Commission’s proposal to establish a ground-breaking, two-tier Investment Court System in the Section 3 of the Commission’ draft TTIP to address concerns about systemic deficiencies looming behind the current ISDS (mainly lack of legitimacy, consistency and transparency) by bringing the private model of investment dispute settlement back to the public domain, as well as providing for an appellate mechanism to harmonise inconsistency in rulings and correct erroneous decisions. This undoubtedly contributes to develop a more coherent investment arbitration body of law, restoring predictability and faith in investment treaty regime, and therefore boosts foreign investments and economic growth.

Everything causes cancer? Beliefs and attitudes towards cancer prevention among anti-vaxxers, flat earthers, and reptilian conspiracists: online cross sectional survey

ObjectiveTo evaluate, using an online non-probability sample, the beliefs about and attitudes towards cancer prevention of people professing vaccination scepticism or conspiracy theories.DesignCross sectional survey.SettingData collected mainly from ForoCoches (a...

Behavioral "nudges" in the electronic health record to reduce waste and misuse: 3 interventions.

Electronic health records (EHRs) offer decision support in the form of alerts, which are often though not always interruptive. These alerts, though sometimes effective, can come at the cost of high cognitive burden and workflow disruption. Less well studied is the design of the EHR itself-the ordering provider's "choice architecture"-which "nudges" users toward alternatives, sometimes unintentionally toward waste and misuse, but ideally intentionally toward better practice. We studied 3 different workflows at our institution where the existing choice architecture was potentially nudging providers toward erroneous decisions, waste, and misuse in the form of inappropriate laboratory work, incorrectly specified computerized tomographic imaging, and excessive benzodiazepine dosing for imaging-related sedation. We changed the architecture to nudge providers toward better practice and found that the 3 nudges were successful to varying degrees in reducing erroneous decision-making and mitigating waste and misuse.

A model of a comprehensive phishing prevention system

In particular, the results of our analysis indicate that with the accumulation of large data sets (properties, conditions, influencing factors, consequences) it will be possible immediately obtain more accurate results about possible security events and thus reduce the amount of spent working time by at least 50%, taking into account costs time to eliminate the consequences of erroneous information security decisions that are of a subjective nature. The security administrator will reduce the time spent on risk analysis and prioritization, and will be able to start processing them almost immediately, which will increase the effectiveness of existing information protection mechanisms. According to the tasks, a model of a comprehensive phishing prevention system has been developed, which consists of a Telegram bot, a mobile application, a website, a browser extension, a shared database, and a DNS server. In this structure, the data collection processes are improved by increasing the number of participants in their formation. Data processing becomes faster due to automation, and data exchange is characterized by the standardization of the source. The system can also be used for the early detection of mass mailings. Such detection is based on estimating the number of transitions from one network to one link in a unit of time. The use of the system data will contribute to the safety of users and increase the effectiveness of CERT-UA, the Cyber Police, the National Bank of Ukraine, and the National Cybersecurity Coordination Center in the process of their operational interaction. The prospects for further research include the integration of artificial intelligence methods (BERT model) into the developed neural network infrastructure to improve the algorithms for identifying malicious resources. The development of the infrastructure also involves creating an API and its further use in messaging services (messengers, web resources with messaging function). Key words: cyber security, phishing, cyber risk.

Influence of the position of the distal pressure measurement point on the Fractional Flow Reserve using in-silico simulations

Coronary stenosis is mainly responsible for myocardial ischemia as the blood supply to a portion of the heart stops or is severely reduced. The Fractional Flow Reserve is the benchmark for the hemodynamic significance assessment of coronary stenoses. Its value is employed as a gatekeeper/planning tool for revascularization in clinical practice.Non-invasive alternatives have been successfully proposed to guide cardiologists. However, simulation values are not accurate enough in the 0.75–0.85 range, so invasive Fractional Flow Reserve should be used.Several authors argue about where distal pressure should be measured. Therefore, our aim is to use simulation to assess how this value changes and to detect the correct measurement region.First, we have adjusted the simulation method to the segmentations of two patients whose invasive Fractional Flow Reserve is known. We then extended our analysis to four patients and obtained the simulated value at multiple points distal to the stenosis. This is an advantage over invasive measurements, whose locations are restricted. The results are also essential for locating the best region for invasive distal pressure measurements.We propose a hybrid invasive and in-silico procedure that would avoid false results and prevent cardiologists from making erroneous clinical decisions.

Biometric-Based Key Generation and User Authentication Using Acoustic Characteristics of the Outer Ear and a Network of Correlation Neurons.

Trustworthy AI applications such as biometric authentication must be implemented in a secure manner so that a malefactor is not able to take advantage of the knowledge and use it to make decisions. The goal of the present work is to increase the reliability of biometric-based key generation, which is used for remote authentication with the protection of biometric templates. Ear canal echograms were used as biometric images. Multilayer convolutional neural networks that belong to the autoencoder type were used to extract features from the echograms. A new class of neurons (correlation neurons) that analyzes correlations between features instead of feature values is proposed. A neuro-extractor model was developed to associate a feature vector with a cryptographic key or user password. An open data set of ear canal echograms to test the performance of the proposed model was used. The following indicators were achieved: EER = 0.0238 (FRR = 0.093, FAR < 0.001), with a key length of 8192 bits. The proposed model is superior to known analogues in terms of key length and probability of erroneous decisions. The ear canal parameters are hidden from direct observation and photography. This fact creates additional difficulties for the synthesis of adversarial examples.

FDI Attack Detection at the Edge of Smart Grids Based on Classification of Predicted Residuals

The introduction of information and communication technologies makes network environments increasingly open, leaving smart-grid control systems incredibly vulnerable to malicious attacks. False data injection (FDI) attacks stealthily tamper with measurement data, resulting in erroneous decisions made by the control center that greatly influence the normal operation of the power system. By taking advantage of real-time data acquisition with edge computing, in this article, we propose a scheme based on classification of predicted residuals (CPRs) for the FDI attack detection. The CPR scheme first predicts the acquired measurement data at the edge of the sensing network via developing an accurate prediction model. Followed the novel real-time classification method under the edge devices supporting, it classifies the predicted residuals independent of the false data to enhance the detection accuracy. Through these two steps, the detection rate of FDI attacks is greatly improved. The proposed scheme is validated in a real microgrid testbed. Experimental results show that the CPR scheme performs well in detecting FDI attacks and remains sensitive in injection attack probability and magnitude. The detection scheme even has effectiveness at low injection attack probability and magnitude (5% and 0.018 per thousand, respectively). Furthermore, it also proves that the proposed scheme has applicability in high real-time requirements at the edge of smart grids.

TRANSFORMATION OF COMMUNICATION ACTIVITIES OF PUBLIC AUTHORITY BODIES IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE LATEST CHALLENGES AND THREATS

The article examines the theoretical and practical aspects of the transformation of the communicative activity of public authorities in the conditions of the latest challenges and threats with the aim of forming an anti-crisis information comfort zone. It is noted that the feature of modern challenges and threats, which generate uncertainty and erroneous management decisions, is the unreliability of information, and in some cases direct misinformation and ignorance of ways to behave in existing situations. It is emphasized that the task of public authorities in the communication management in crisis conditions consists of tolerance to uncertainty, which forms the ability of authorities to self-regulate in the absence of external and internal guidelines for choice, the impossibility of using ready-made solutions. The basic rules of crisis communications are summarized. It was emphasized that the combination of effective crisis communication and information hygiene and media literacy of society will contribute to the formation of an anti-crisis information comfort zone for every Ukrainian and the state in general. It is noted that the goal of information hygiene is to reduce the negative impact of information on the mental, physical and social well-being of society and to ensure the implementation of conscious management actions by power structures. It has been established that compliance with the rules of information hygiene in the face of the latest challenges and threats will contribute to the creation of one's own conscious information space, help preserve freedom and independence, and form one's own and socially acceptable information comfort zone. Keywords: transformation, crisis communications, public authorities, challenges and threats, information hygiene, information comfort zone.

Water Regulating in Kenozero Taiga: Excess or Lack of Water and Where Does It Go?

Water-regulating ecosystem services (ESs) are a key factor in water supply for the population and the economy. In recent years, these ESs have been intensively included in regional and global assessments. However, the degree of knowledge of various water-regulating ESs and the availability of models for their estimation and mapping vary greatly. For example, most regional assessments currently do not take into account the ESs of moisture and precipitation recycling by forests which can lead to erroneous decisions on land use and forest management. To what extent is it possible to make adequate decisions on the basis of a partial assessment of the ESs? In this article, we discuss this problem using the example of boreal forests in the catchment of the Lake Kenozero in the north of the European part of Russia. Using the InVEST model, two ESs were quantified and mapped: water yield regulation due to evapotranspiration and water quality assurance due to prevention of soil erosion. The reduction in water yield due to evapotranspiration was estimated at 125 mm/year, and the prevention of soil erosion was estimated at 9.56 t/ha/year. Forest felling in the study area from 2007 to 2021 led to an increase in runoff and soil erosion by 6 mm/year and 0.03 t/ha/year, respectively. The hypothetical total instantaneous forest loss could lead to an increase in runoff and soil erosion by 71 mm/year and 2.44 t/ha/year, respectively. A tradeoff between these ESs was predictably identified as deforestation led to an increase in water yield and a deterioration in water quality due to soil erosion. The significance of a number of other water-regulating ESs for making regional decisions was expertly assessed. In particular, the importance of the ESs of precipitation recycling of sludge under climate change was discussed. Expanding the range of ESs under consideration increases the likelihood of choosing a protection strategy instead of a harvesting one in forest management.

Parity-Check-CRC Concatenated Polar Codes SSCFlip Decoder

Successive cancellation flip decoding requires a large number of extra successive cancellation decoding attempts at low signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs), resulting in high decoding complexity. In addition, it has a long decoding latency. Although modifications have been proposed in successive cancellation flip decoding, these still have high computational complexity at low SNRs due to a huge number of additional successive cancellation decoding attempts. It is desirable to detect the unsuccessful successive cancellation decoding process at an early stage in the additional successive cancellation flip attempts and stop it that can reduce the decoding complexity. This paper combines the parity-check-CRC concatenated polar codes with the low-latency simplified successive cancellation decoding and proposes a parity-check-CRC concatenated polar codes simplified successive cancellation flip (PC-CRC-SSCFlip) decoder. It further employs the parity-check vector to identify the unsuccessful simplified successive cancellation flip decoding at an early stage and terminates so that it can minimize the decoding complexity on average. Additionally, this work proposes an error-prone flipping list by incorporating the empirically observed indices based on channel-induced error distribution along with the first bit of each Rate-1 node. The proposed technique can identify more than one error-prone bit through a flipping list and correct them. In addition, the parity-check vector further narrows down the search space for the identification of erroneous decisions. Simulation results show that 60% of unsuccessful additional successive cancellation decoding attempts terminate early rather than decode the whole codeword. The proposed PC-CRC-SSCFlip decoder has approximately 0.7 dB and 0.3 dB gains over successive cancellation and successive cancellation flip decoders, respectively, at a fixed block error rate (BLER) = 10−3. Additionally, it reduces the average computational complexity and decoding latency of the successive cancellation flip decoder at low-to-medium SNRs while approaching successive cancellation decoding complexity at medium-to-high SNRs.

Design reviewing: are experts better and does slowing down improve performance?

Design reviewing is an important aspect of engineering design. Designs certified by a professional engineer require some form of external check. This external check can range from a quick intuitive assessment of a proposed solution to a reassessment of the problem using alternative methods. This research explored intuitive review assessments for two typical geotechnical designs. The results suggest that those with requisite experience (even seemingly little experience) can make correct assessments even after spending as few as 4 min reviewing a carefully presented solution. Forcing participants to state reasons for a decision (and thereby slowing them down) only served to improve predictions by novices attempting an unfamiliar problem. While such quick intuitive reviews appeared adequate for assessing the problems presented here, some experts still made erroneous decisions even after stating reasons for a decision. Design reviews are an important step in design and should never be taken lightly.

A Technical Device for Determining the Predispositions of Students—Air Traffic Controllers and Pilots during Multitasking Training

The specific professions of aviation personnel include the professions of the pilot and air traffic controller. These occupations are specific in that while performing their work, they must be able to simultaneously operate the devices in the handling area and in the pedipulation area, supplemented by acoustic sensations in the form of correspondence between flying and ground stations. The performance requirements of pilots and air traffic controllers place high demands on their health, psychological condition, attention, and concentration, due to being in constant pursuit of minimization of erroneous decisions, otherwise defined as the human factor in aviation. This article is focused on the development and testing of a technical device for measuring the relative error rate of students in multitasking tasks in preparation for employment. The main result is a designed technical device with hardware (HW) and software (SW) parts. An experimental method was used to measure the qualitative and quantitative performance indicators of the test subjects. The results of the experiment were observed and evaluated based on the analytical-synthetic method based on critical thinking. By comparing and abstracting the measured data, the reference values of the performance indicators of the tested subjects were determined. The selection of the final sample of subjects consisted of two phases. In the first phase, questionnaires were evaluated, and in the second phase, reaction time measurements during multitasking tasks using technical equipment were evaluated. Based on the measurements, an error ratio was defined, which could be graphically represented. The testing proved the full functionality of the designed technical equipment for these purposes in aviation education.

Quality analysis of the cadastral map in Costa Rica using geographic information systems (GIS) of public license

This article presents a methodology to perform quality analysis on the cadastral map, based on the tools provided by open (public or free) license geographic information systems (GIS). The errors presented in the cadastral map have a direct impact on the information systems, which can lead to erroneous decisions and to an increase in the costs of maintenance and updating of spatial data. The methodology developed was used and tested by Costa Rica’s Cadastre and Registry Regularization Program; as a product of this program, a continuous cadastral map has been created for Costa Rica, on which cadastral and registry transactions will be processed within the National Registry of Costa Rica. The methodology allows detecting, locating and classifying errors in the cadastral map for easily correcting, so that this map correctly represents the reality of the properties that conform it

A fuzzy-oscillatory model of medial prefrontal cortex control function in spatial memory retrieval in human navigation function.

Navigation can be broadly defined as the process of moving from an origin to a destination through path-planning. Previous research has shown that navigation is mainly related to the function of the medial temporal lobe (MTL), including the hippocampus (HPC), and medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), which controls retrieval of the spatial memories from this region. In this study, we suggested a cognitive and computational model of human navigation with a focus on mutual interactions between the hippocampus (HPC) and the mPFC using the concept of synchrony. The Van-der-pol oscillator was used to model the synchronous process of receiving and processing "what stream" information. A fuzzy lookup table system was applied for modeling the controlling function of the mPFC in retrieving spatial information from the HPC. The effect of attention level was also included and simulated. The performance of the model was evaluated using information reported in previous experimental research. Due to the inherent stability of the proposed fuzzy-oscillatory model, it is less sensitive to the exact values of the initial conditions, and therefore, it is shown that it is consistent with the actual human performance in real environments. Analyzing the proposed cognitive and fuzzy-oscillatory computational model demonstrates that the model is able to reproduce certain cognitive and functional disturbances in navigation in related diseases such as Alzheimer's disease (AD). We have shown that an increase in the bifurcation parameter of the Van-der-pol equation represents an increase in the low-frequency spectral power density and a decrease in the high-frequency spectral power as occurs in AD due to an increase in the amyloid plaques in the brain. These changes in the frequency characteristics of neuronal activity, in turn, lead to impaired recall and retrieval of landmarks information and learned routes upon encountering them. As a result, and because of the wrong frequency code being transmitted, the relevant set of rules in the mPFC is not activated, or another unrelated set will be activated, which leads to forgetfulness and erroneous decisions in routing and eventually losing the route in Alzheimer's patients.

Facing hierarchy: a qualitative study of residents’ experiences in an obstetrical simulation scenario

BackgroundResidents in surgical specialties face a steep hierarchy when managing medical crises. Hierarchy can negatively impact patient safety when team members are reluctant to speak up. Yet, simulation has scarcely been previously utilized to qualitatively explore the way residents in surgical specialities navigate this challenge. The study aimed to explore the experiences of residents in one surgical specialty, obstetrics and gynecology (Ob/Gyn), when challenging hierarchy, with the goal of informing future interventions to optimize resident learning and patient safety.MethodsEight 3rd- and 4th-year Ob/Gyn residents participated in a simulation scenario in which their supervising physician made an erroneous medical decision that jeopardized the wellbeing of the labouring mother and her foetus. Residents participated in 30–45 min semi-structured interviews that explored their approach to managing this scenario. Transcribed interviews were analysed using qualitative thematic inquiry by three research team members, finalizing the identified themes once consensus was reached.ResultsStudy results show that the simulated scenario did create an experience of hierarchy that challenged residents. In response, residents adopted three distinct communication strategies while confronting hierarchy: (1) messaging — a mere reporting of existing clinical information; (2) interpretive — a deliberate construction of clinical facts aimed at swaying supervising physician’s clinical decision; and (3) advocative — a readiness to confront the staff physician’s clinical decision. Furthermore, residents utilized coping mechanisms to mitigate challenges related to confronting hierarchy, namely deflecting responsibility, diminishing urgency, and drafting allies. Both these communication strategies and coping mechanisms shaped their practice when challenging hierarchy to preserve patient safety.ConclusionsUnderstanding the complex processes in which residents engage when confronting hierarchy can serve to inform the development and study of curricular innovations. Informed by these processes, we must move beyond solely teaching residents to speak up and consider a broader curriculum that targets not only residents but also faculty physicians and the learning environment within the organization.

Improvement in Hurst exponent estimation and its application to financial markets

AbstractThis research aims to improve the efficiency in estimating the Hurst exponent in financial time series. A new procedure is developed based on equality in distribution and is applicable to the estimation methods of the Hurst exponent. We show how to use this new procedure with three of the most popular algorithms (generalized Hurst exponet, total triangles area, and fractal dimension) in the literature. Findings show that this new approach improves the accuracy of the original methods, mainly for longer series. The second contribution of this study is that we show how to use this methodology to test whether the series is self-similar, constructing a confidence interval for the Hurst exponent for which the series satisfies this property. Finally, we present an empirical application of this new procedure to stocks of the S &amp;P500 index. Similar to previous contributions, we consider this to be relevant to financial literature, as it helps to avoid inappropriate interpretations of market efficiency that can lead to erroneous decisions not only by market participants but also by policymakers.

Making the Most of Failure and Uncertainty: Welcome Surprises and Contingency in Energy Transition Research

Energy transitions inherit complex processes full of surprises, unintended consequences, erroneous decisions, uncertainties, paradoxical situations, and sometimes sheer failures [...]

Application of Qualitative Characteristics to Evaluate Misstatements in Financial Statements: Evidence from Factual Audit Data

The auditor should use qualitative characteristics, which describe the essence of misstatement, while assessing identified misstatements. Final decision depends on the professional judgment made by the auditor, however, auditors may make erroneous decisions or be biased. Previous theoretical research highlighted problems with the application of qualitative characteristics. However, factual audit data is confidential and usually not available for researchers to examine, therefore previous research mostly relied on surveys or experiments and there is little evidence on how auditors behave during real audits (rather than simulations). One audit company agreed to provide us with factual data for this research. The aim of the research is to examine the application of primary qualitative characteristics based on factual audit data. During the research, the audits performed in one Lithuanian audit company for the financial years 2019–2020 were examined as well as summarized official (publicly available) data about audit companies in Lithuania and audits performed by them for 2018–2020 financial years were examined. Firstly, most important primary qualitative characteristics, as well as secondary commonly used characteristics, were singled out. Our further investigation, based on received 2019–2020 factual audit data revealed that some auditors still do not apply primary qualitative characteristics in all cases. Even though we investigated one company and we cannot directly extrapolate results for the whole audit market, but our results are in line with the official and publicly available information about audit companies in Lithuania. Thus, we conclude that our results partly reflect truthful view of factual behavior of audit companies in Lithuania. These results also confirm theoretical research that qualitative characteristics are not sufficiently appreciated.