Donald Trump Research Articles

Relational Power in the Era of De-Risking

The global hegemony of the United States has been increasingly challenged by regional powers. Beginning with the decoupling strategy officially proposed by the Trump administration in 2019, the Biden administration has further intensified and refined the decoupling measures against China aiming to weaken China comprehensively using a small yard, high fence approach. From decoupling to de-risking, the world has entered an era of de-risking. This study examines the interpretation and manifestation of relational power in contemporary times through three dimensions: interest connections, interest and value connections, and connections based on a community with a shared future. The goal is to establish a relational network centered on China to counter U.S. marginalization of China, rally and lead the Global South to build a community with a shared future for humanity, and break through the barriers of the pan-Western alliance led by the U.S.

US international trade policy: Scenarios of protectionism and trade wars

US international trade policy under both the Trump and Biden administrations has been increasingly protectionist. This paper considers two policy scenarios under active discussion: (1) an across-the-board increase in all US tariffs by 10 percentage points, and (2) a severe escalation of the US trade war with China. The scenarios are analyzed using a multi-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation model of the global economy. Trade wars or policy regimes of widespread protection will increase tariffs in many sectors simultaneously and include both final goods and intermediate inputs. The impacts are complex, with a web of direct and indirect forces coming into play across domestic and international markets. The global CGE model captures these mechanisms, including both short and long-run effects, with and without retaliation by partner countries. In a world economy where the US accounts for only 10 % of global trade and potentially rival trade bloc have emerged in Europe and E&SE Asia, the US is no longer hegemonic in global markets. We find that across-the-board tariffs do not protect manufacturing jobs because the cost of imported intermediate goods increases, raising costs in manufacturing production. The US trade war with China leads to a dramatic fall in bilateral trade. Other countries expand their trade to China and the US with the exception of closely linked partners (e.g. Canada and Mexico and all countries in E&SE Asia). We find that the world economy can adjust to US trade wars, diverting trade around the US.

Persuasión musical en spots de Donald Trump. Recursos de yuxtaposición en anuncios comparativos con música de librería

This paper studies the soundtrack of some Donald Trump contrast ads that include resources of musical juxtaposition. Adverts that used pre-existing production music during the 2016 and 2020 US presidential campaigns. The preferred technique is to reduce the number of instruments used to a minimum when talking about the adversary and bringing in full orchestration when speaking of the advertiser. Expressive silence is the most powerful musical device for signposting those words or phrases that, due to the information they transmit, summarise the advertising and campaign message in the ad. The Republican candidate opts for alternating and combining harmonious and textural changes to project himself with a tough profile in the second part of the spot, in contrast with the weakness of the Democrat candidates, as represented in the first, negative part. The application of harmonic changes while maintaining the instruments, rhythm and pace of the music strengthens the narrative cohesion of all the audio-visual components. The methodology utilised in this study can be applied to observe music in the audio-visual field outside the context of political campaigns, and even outside advertising.

America's Iran Policy Pendulum from Obama and Trump to Biden (2009-2022): Between Diplomatic Engagement and Maximum Pressure

Objectives: This study examines US policy towards Iran from 2009 to 2022, focusing on the challenges and tools utilized by successive US administrations. Methods: The study adopts a descriptive and analytical approach, drawing on official US documents, presidential statements, relevant articles, reports, and research. Results: US-Iranian relations faced significant obstacles due to Iran's regional behavior and interference in other countries' affairs, leading to political instability. Different administrations employed varying strategies, with Obama pursuing a mix of diplomacy and economic sanctions, while the Trump administration opted for a strict approach, including withdrawing from the nuclear agreement and re-imposing economic sanctions. The Biden administration has continued the pressure by reinstating sanctions and expressing a desire to negotiate a new comprehensive agreement. Conclusion: Despite inconsistencies, the overarching goal of US policy remains influencing Iran to alter its regional policies. However, these efforts have not produced a notable change in Iranian behavior, impeding the improvement of US-Iranian relations.

Problems of war and peace in the context of growing external threats to Russian sovereignty (2012–2022)

Importance. The purpose of the study is to consider the state of problems of war and peace in the dynamics of growing external threats to the sovereignty of the Russian Federation in 2012–2022. Among them, there is a special interest in war as a phenomenon that has once again become a radical tool for conducting interstate relations.Research Methods. The research is based on the principles of historicism, the unity of the objective and the subjective. Along with general scientific methods, such as analysis, dialectical method, case-study, elements of decisional, historical-comparative, retrospective and other methods from interdisciplinary knowledge were used.Results and Discussion. It is noted that the main reason for the escalation of the “hot phase” of the war is the actual refusal of the West to end the Cold War. The difference is given in the peculiarities of understanding modern war and its instruments in the goals and methods of international policy pursued by the United States using the examples of the actions of the administrations of Barack Obama and Donald Trump, the Russian Federation under the leadership of President V.V. Putin. It is shown that the emerging trend towards the rejection of unilateralism, changes in the internal and external environment, was transformed into a radical political course of the United States under Barack Obama. The strengthening of the United States as a state, despite the contradictions between factions of the establishment, and its role as the center of the West, in the presence of acute inter-party discourse, under Trump is an instrument of the struggle for his global hegemony. While categorically rejecting the aggressive actions of Washington and NATO, the Russian leadership does not exclude the possibility of peaceful coexistence with the United States.Conclusion. The period under review was not only a fixation of trends launched by the West, but also seriously transformed Russia’s national security understanding. The concept of “hybrid warfare” seems to be the most productive to describe the current stage. In order to build a more stable international security system in the 21st century, it will be necessary to take into account changes in the nature of a number of international relations fundamental problems related to the war and peace problems.

The Importance of Changes in the Field of Socio-Economic Cooperation in Polish-American Relations in the Era of Donald Trump’s Presidency

The Importance of Changes in the Field of Socio-Economic Cooperation in Polish-American Relations in the Era of Donald Trump’s Presidency

The syntactic position of the “people” in the political discourse of left and right populism (NLP-based syntactic analysis experience)

This paper attempts to measure populism in English-language speeches of politicians using computational linguistics methods. The relevance of this study is related not only to the rise of populism in the world and the importance of understanding the mechanisms of political discourse, but also to the lack of linguistic research in the context of corpus studies. Most of the methods proposed to date require significant resources or suffer from structural limitations, especially when they rely heavily on the human annotation process to analyze extensive corpus data. The material for the study was public speeches and interviews of right-wing populist politician and 45th President of the United States Donald Trump and political rhetoric of left-wing populist politician Senator Bernie Sanders. The corpus analysis was based on transcripts downloaded from The American Presidency Project and Miller Center websites. The syntactic position of key lexical units is determined using a comprehensive method based on dependency grammar combined with natural language processing (NLP) and van Leeuwen’s linguistic theory. The application of natural language processing methods confirms the assumption that the frequency of politicians’ reference to the people is not the only relevant indicator for measuring people-centrism in (populist) political discourse, as usually proposed in the political science literature. The results of the study indicate that there is no predominant role of the people in the discourse of Trump and Sanders. In most cases, the people appear in a complementary or adjunct position, indicating their secondary importance in their rhetoric. Given that populism implies proximity to the people and is positioned as “vox populi” – “the voice of the people”, it can be assumed that for both Trump and Sanders, addressing the people is only a way to achieve their political goals.

How negativity and policy content drive the spread of political messages

ABSTRACT Research demonstrates that negative messages spread more online, both at the elite and mass levels. We know comparatively less about the role that policy content plays, and whether that might be responsible for the effect of negativity. We examine over 1.4 million congressional tweets to test the effect of message tone and topic on the number of retweets that messages receive. We find that elite messages are retweeted more when they contain political attacks. However, even while controlling for tone, we find that messages are shared more when they discuss some “culture war” issues or when they discuss Donald Trump.

What is old is new again: The deep roots of ethnic nationalism in the digital age

AbstractIn this article, we elaborate on the central themes of our recent book, The New Nationalism in America and Beyond (OUP, 2022), before responding to the comments and criticisms of several esteemed colleagues (Phil Gorski, Cynthia Miller‐Idriss, and Sophie Duchesne). In sum, our book argues that the relative success of right‐wing populists among the white majorities of the West – including Donald Trump in the US, Marine Le Pen in France, and the Brexit Campaigners in the UK – is partly due to the way in which they draw upon long‐established ethnic nationalist myths and symbols in their political communication. By adapting this cultural content to the contemporary context, these elites are ensuring that their messaging resonates among their target populations. In making this case, our book seeks to demonstrate the value of taking culture seriously in the analysis of the so‐called ‘new nationalism.’

The Story of Inequality: Xenophobia and Racial Discrimination Against Asian Americans During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic is a catastrophic global human rights crisis, and it has aggravated the racism experienced by racial minorities around the world. This article explores the serious discrimination against Asian Americans within the US society during the pandemic from the political and historical perspectives. It finds that the inappropriate practices of conservative politicians, led by Donald Trump, to link the virus to Asian groups have triggered the deep-rooted anti-Asian discrimination among the American public in the US history, which has adversely affected the well-being of Asian Americans during the COVID-19.

The US Presidency: Power and Constraint

How much should we fear that a president will break the law to pursue power—then use their office to avoid legal accountability? Political scientists studying the presidency have often overlooked the risk of what we here call a criminal president. Donald Trump's presidency spotlighted that risk and has begun to shift the field's focus toward not just presidential power but presidential constraints. We believe this shift should continue. In this review, we aim to set an agenda that makes the danger of a criminal president central to understanding the presidency more broadly. Situating the criminal presidency within wider questions about legal and constitutional constraints on presidential power, we emphasize the unique risks to democracy that a president unbound by law can pose. We call for a greater focus on the legal rules governing the executive branch—especially unitary executive ideas—and the policies needed to hold criminal presidents accountable.

Was there an enthusiasm gap? Examining support for Donald Trump among evangelicals and nonevangelicals

Abstract Evangelicals arguably constitute an unexpected base of support for Donald Trump. One plausible account holds that evangelicals supported Trump reluctantly, backing him not because they strongly favored him, but rather because they viewed him as the least objectionable candidate. This perspective suggests a possible enthusiasm gap: among Donald Trump's supporters, nonevangelicals were more zealous while evangelicals were more tepid. We examine this account using data from March 2019, just past the midpoint of Trump's presidency, a period when any lack of enthusiasm with Trump among portions of his base should have been discernible. Our expansive analytical strategy, using OLS and matching, explores whether evangelicals offered Donald Trump more lukewarm support than did nonevangelicals, with support operationalized in six ways. Across 36 tests, no evidence of an enthusiasm gap between evangelicals and nonevangelicals is detected. Seen both in absolute terms and relative to nonevangelicals, evangelicals offered Donald Trump fervent support.

Donald Trump's Foreign Policy: Withdrawal From International Regimes and Organizations

This research delves into transformative shifts in United States (US) foreign policy during Donald Trump�s presidency, specifically focusing on withdrawals from crucial international agreements like the Paris Agreement, TPP, UNHRC, UNESCO, and UNRWA. Utilizing the Poliheuristic theory, the study aims to comprehend the rationale behind the US withdrawal from international regimes and organizations during Trump's administration. The research employs a dual-stage assessment within the Poliheuristic theory; the cognitive aspect, considering policymakers� values, and the rational aspect, evaluating potential gains and losses. President Trump confronted three options for international organizations: remaining, renegotiating, or withdrawing. Qualitative techniques were incorporated to analyze the prioritization of the America First promise and assess the country�s engagement with these entities. Rejecting the option to remain led to a rational evaluation of renegotiation or exit. The decision to withdraw was strategically made to address unmet renegotiation demands, minimizing significant financial burdens for the US.

The influence of President Trump's micro-expressions during his COVID-19 national address on viewers' emotional response.

This preregistered study replicates and extends studies concerning emotional response to wartime rally speeches and applies it to U.S. President Donald Trump's first national address regarding the COVID-19 pandemic on March 11, 2020. We experimentally test the effect of a micro-expression (ME) by Trump associated with appraised threat on change in participant self-reported distress, sadness, anger, affinity, and reassurance while controlling for followership. We find that polarization is perpetuated in emotional response to the address which focused on portraying the COVID-19 threat as being of Chinese provenance. We also find a significant, albeit slight, effect by Trump's ME on self-reported sadness, suggesting that this facial behavior served did not diminish his speech, instead serving as a form of nonverbal punctuation. Further exploration of participant response using the Linguistic Inventory and Word Count software reinforces and extends these findings.

The Gonzo Character of Contemporary American Politics: Media Logics from Donald Trump to Kyrsten Sinema

The Gonzo Character of Contemporary American Politics: Media Logics from Donald Trump to Kyrsten Sinema

Battle for Inbox and Bucks

Despite its proven pervasiveness and effectiveness, the role of email in political campaigns has been understudied. In this article, we seek to understand the use of emails by Donald Trump's and Joe Biden's campaigns during the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Employing newly collected email data (N = 4051), we compared how the two campaign teams differ in the use of appeals in their emails, and the functions of the message (e.g., attack, acclaim). We found that, while both campaigns used emails primarily for fundraising, Trump's campaign (compared to Biden’s campaign) was more likely to use all of the four appeals we defined — material, solidarity, ideology, and issue appeals. We also found that by sending emails, Biden's campaign tends to acclaim itself more while Trump's campaign attacks opponents more.

The Power to Exclude: The (Mis)Treatment of Unaccompanied Minors under the Trump and Biden Administration

In “The Biden Plan for Securing Our Values as a Nation of Immigrants” (hereinafter “Biden Plan“), then-candidate Joe Biden promised to “reassert America’s commitment to asylum-seekers and refugees.” Three years into his presidency, how far has the Biden Administration come in their efforts to create a more humane asylum system? And has the treatment of unaccompanied minors seen any significant improvements? This article examines the Trump Administration’s attempts to permanently alter the US asylum system. After trying to categorically ban all claims that were based on persecution by “private actors,” the Trump Administration seized on the COVID-19 pandemic as a convenient pretext for taking away even some of the most basic human rights protections that asylum-seekers have enjoyed for generations. This article will argue that the Biden Administration, despite their efforts to restore some basic protections, continues to criminalize and institutionalize many unaccompanied minors.

North Korea’s Nuclear Advancement and Its Increasing Impact on International Security

North Korea’s nuclear advancements have not only escalated tensions across the Korean peninsula but also presented significant challenges to broader international security. Pyongyang has remained the primary supplier of weapons to Russia amid the conflict in Ukraine, a dynamic that is described as “the tail wagging the dog”. Should Donald Trump be re-elected and hastily negotiate a nuclear deal with Kim Jong-un, it could potentially heighten the risk of nuclear proliferation in East Asia.

Watchful, skeptics, and system distrusters: Characteristics associated with different types of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among U.S. working-age adults

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy is complex, with adults identifying various reasons for not getting vaccinated. Using data from the 2022 National Wellbeing Survey on 7612 U.S. adults aged 18–64, we identified how age, race/ethnicity, sex, marital status, education, income, employment status, partisanship, and metropolitan status are associated with COVID-19 vaccination status and three non-mutually exclusive types of vaccine hesitancy: 1) watchful, concerned about vaccine side effects and efficacy; 2) skeptics, distrust the vaccine, and 3) system distrusters, distrust government. A third of respondents overall (N = 2643) had not received at least one dose at the time of the survey. Among respondents who were not vaccinated, 67 % are classified as watchful, 53 % are skeptics, and 32 % are system distrusters. Results from logistic regression show that concerns about side effects and safety (watchfulness) appear to be major drivers for not getting vaccinated among females and among non-Hispanic Black and unmarried adults, whereas skepticism and distrust appear to be more important barriers among ages 25–44. All three types of hesitancy appear to be important contributors to lower vaccination uptake among low-income, low-education, and unemployed adults, and among individuals who voted for Donald Trump in the 2020 election (with skepticism and distrust being most endorsed by this group). Findings suggest that universal messaging and intervention strategies are unlikely to be effective in reducing vaccine hesitancy. Different messages, messengers, and tactics must be used with different groups.

Tackling Trump: Contemporary Politics and the Creation of Official Knowledge

Textbooks remain important curricular resources in K-12 classrooms. However, the narratives they provide are not neutral and often influenced by external forces. Extant research has shown that history textbooks often present whitewashed and heavily biased accounts of the past; however, less is known about how textbook authors and publishers depict recent historical events, particularly those that remain politically contentious. In this study, I analyze how four recently published U.S. history textbooks depict the Trump era. I found that the textbooks varied in their explicit criticisms of Trump, even when describing his dispositions and attacks on democratic norms, with the textbook aimed specifically at K-12 students normalizing Trump to a greater extent than the textbooks written for college undergraduates and advanced K-12 students.