Equity Market Timing Research Articles

Corporate investment sensitivity to equity market misvaluation

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of equity market misvaluation on manager behavior. Using a sample of 535 French-listed over 2000–2018, the authors analyze whether corporate investment decision is sensitive to equity market overvaluation.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts market-to-book (M/B) decomposition developed by Rhodes-Kropf and Viswanathan (2004, RKV) that proxies for market misvaluation at the firm and industry levels. The authors conducted a long-term performance analysis via a portfolio sorting procedure and a Carhart (1997) four-factor pricing model. The authors tested the relationship between equity misvaluation, corporate investment decisions and equity issuance. The authors ran several robustness tests.FindingsThe empirical results show that equity market misvaluation affects corporate investment positively as the stock price deviates further away from its fundamental. Based on market timing theory, the authors find that corporate investment occurs in periods of high valuation motivated by equity issuance to benefit from the low cost of capital. This effect is more prominent for financially constrained firms. Consistent with the catering channel, the authors find that the misvaluation-investment nexus is more pronounced in firms with short-horizon investors. By examining the stocks’ long-term performance of misvalued firms, via a sorting portfolio procedure, the authors find that undervalued firms outperform and generate higher abnormal returns (Jensen’s alpha) than overvalued firms, suggesting that mispricing-driven investment appear to be short-lived and lead to lower return in the long term.Practical implicationsCorporate decision-makers and governance structures should pay attention to the rationality of the corporate investment decision in the context of equity market misvaluation. Managers who focus on maximizing the stock market value in the short-run at the expense of its long-term performance must give preference to value-creating investment, not driven by an external mechanism such as equity market mispricing. More generally, investors and portfolio managers must take into account the market mispricing process in decision-making. Nonetheless, from the portfolio sorting perspective, decision-makers must act in terms of high governance quality to mitigate suboptimal investment due to stock market mispricing (Jensen, 2005). Finally, equity market overvaluation, leading managers to invest via equity financing in particular, should be a signal to attract investors’ attention to seize the window of opportunity and embark on a short-term portfolio strategy. Such a strategy promises high returns in the short term.Originality/valueThis paper investigates jointly two theoretical channels: equity market timing and catering. The authors propose for the analysis three components of the M/B decomposition to dissociate market misvaluation at the firm and industry level from the fundamental component of market value (growth). This procedure provides a better understanding of the role of firm and industry misvaluation in explaining corporate investments. The authors provide evidence of the equity market misvaluation via a portfolio sorting procedure and a Carhart (1997) four-factor pricing model. The authors examine the effect of misvaluation on both the investment and the financing decisions.

Do Companies Consider Market Timing in Issuing Stock in Indonesia

The purpose of this research is to indicate equity market timing behavior on companies in Indonesia when those firms issued their share by using cumulative abnormal return as a proxy to predict market timing. Samples in this research are non-financial companies with seasonal or initial shares issued during 2014-2020 and listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange. The results of this study show that cumulative abnormal return before the shares are issued positively affects capital raised. In contrast, cumulative abnormal return after issuing shares negatively affects capital raised. This result shows that non-financial companies in Indonesia practice market timing behavior that can be indicated by using their stock's cumulative abnormal return.

The persistent effect of equity market timing on capital structure during right issue

This research aims to find empirical evidence of the persistent effects of market timing equity on capital structure (CS) in Indonesia as measured by book leverage (BL) and market leverage (ML) due to inconsistent results of previous studies, both inside and outside Indonesia. The data was collected from companies that published the right issue (RI) from 2000 to 2019 and listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange. The companies which were used as sample, they had leverage higher than 1. The hypothesis was examined using two types of regression analysis: ordinary least squares regression to examine cross-section and Fama-McBeth regression for testing the panel data. The results of this research uncovered the persistent effect of equity market timing on the capital structure using BL and ML at RI+1, RI+2, RI+3, RI+4, RI+5, and in total, from RI+1 to RI+5. Moreover,a two-pair sample t-test was used to analyze the issuance of new shares or new debt. The results revealed that when RI+1 used ML and RI+3 used BL and ML, the company issued new shares (NEI) in large numbers, so debt issues (NDI) decreased. Further, this research is beneficial for companies to determine the right time during a rights issue to obtain a high share price so that the cost of share capital remains low.

Pengaruh Equity Market Timing Terhadap Struktur Modal Perusahaan Manufaktur di Bursa Efek Indonesia

This study aims to determine the effect of equity market timing on the capital structure of manufacturing companies that conducted initial public offerings on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The population in this study is the manufacturing sector companies that conduct initial offerings on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the 2010-2015 periods. Sampling was done using the purposive sampling method. Based on the criteria, 18 companies became the research sample. Capital structure in this study is proxied by leverage while equity market timing is proxied by the market-to-book ratio. The data analysis technique used is linear regression analysis with panel data estimation. Prior to the regression analysis, the model specification test and classical assumption test were carried out to ensure that the research model was feasible to use. The results of this study indicate that equity market timing has a negative and significant effect on the company's capital structure.

Non-linearity in Equity Market Timing: Empirical Evidence From the UK

This paper empirically tests the market timing theory to prove that issuing behavior of managers is non-linear. Consistent with the literature we show that mangers increase use of equity to finance their deficit when equities are overvalued and resort to a higher proportion of debt when equities are undervalued. Our results further suggest that mangers however exhibit a distinctive pattern when timing the market. The increase in reliance on equity to finance their deficit during periods of equity overvaluation is non-linear and only significant when the degree of overvaluation is not excessive. Furthermore, during periods of undervaluation managers resort to higher levels of leverage to finance their deficit only when undervaluation levels are excessive. This has serious implications on the ability of the equity market timing as a stand-alone theory in explaining capital structure decisions and poses some interesting implications on the debt-equity choice question when financing the deficit.

The Relationship between Earnings Management and Equity Market Timing

ABSTRACT Objective: this study aims to verify if companies that practice equity market timing have higher earnings management levels around the stock issue period. Method: we used a sample of 68 seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) in Brazil from 2004-2015. First, we ranked the sample among companies that used market timing (timers) behavior in the SEOs and those that did not (non-timers). Second, we estimated each company’s earnings management levels by the Modified Jones and Modified Jones with ROA models. Finally, we tested the relationship between earnings management and equity market timing using a linear regression model. Results: the results show that the timers managed earnings more intensively in the quarters around SEOs than the non-timers. This happens to increase net income and consequently improve profitability ratios. Therefore, to explore opportunity windows, managers can inflate accounting profit through accruals and influence the market’s ability to correctly price shares. Conclusion: Brazilian companies practice earnings management as a way of exploiting opportunity windows in the stock market. The conclusion reinforces the need for a careful analysis of the company’s profits by investors, analysts, auditors, and regulators while allowing efforts to avoid such practices through compliance, governance, and regulation.

Is Market Timing Good for Shareholders?

Corporations often transact in their own mispriced stock. This activity, known as equity market timing, can generate substantial profits and increase the long-term stock price. We challenge a closely related popular view that market timing always benefits firm shareholders. Opportunistic financing maneuvers by a firm can negatively affect its uninformed stock owners because of adverse selection and the change in the firm’s short-term price, whereas the long-term returns do not accumulate to departing stockholders. The negative effect of market timing on stockholders increases with the share turnover. Furthermore, the effect of timing is asymmetric: shareholders prefer that the firm corrects underpricing rather than overpricing. Our theory can be used to better interpret the observed stock issuance and repurchase activities of firms. This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance.

Capital structure of family firms: the effect of debt and equity market timing

PurposeThis study aims to investigate how the timing behavior affects the capital structure decisions of South Asian family firms. A strand of literature is available based on the capital structure of firms in general but inconsistent with family businesses framework and not from market timing outlook. This study looks at the issues from the market timing perspectives of both equity and debt market timing.Design/methodology/approachThe sample of the study is the listed family firms of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The firm-level data are collected from Thomson Reuters' DataStream and the ownership data collected from the countries' stock exchanges and financial statements of the family firms.FindingsThe results show that there is strong support for the market timing in the family firms' capital structure. Moreover, the financial crisis of 2007–2009 surprisingly had a positive effect on the capital structure of South Asian family business.Originality/valueThis study looks at the issues from the market timing perspectives of both equity and debt market timing. It provides evidence for supporting the equity and debt market timing effect on the capital structure and financing decision of family firms. It also addresses the impact of the 2007–2009 financial crisis on the capital structure of family firms.

The Value-Momentum Correlation: An Investment Explanation

This paper shows that both value and momentum premia arise in a q-theoretic framework that considers optimal corporate policies under uncertain financing conditions. Book-to-market and past performance predict future returns because they serve as indicators of firm financing position. The book-to-market ratio increases with financing constraints, with high book-to-market firms investing less and demanding higher risk premia compared to unconstrained, low book-to-market firms. The value premium increases in bad times because value firms become even more constrained, while ample cash reserves allow growth firms to fare much better. Momentum effects appear among the most financially constrained firms. For these firms, financing constraints imply large price swings following cash-flow shocks and valuable equity market timing options imply positive autocorrelation in returns. Absent equity market timing during bad times, momentum disappears. The model is able to explain many empirical features of value and momentum premia, such as: (i) the procyclicality of the momentum premium, (ii) the countercyclicality of the value premium (iii) the negative correlation between the two, and (iv) severe losses to momentums strategies during market rebounds. Several new testable hypotheses arise regarding the fundamentals of value and momentum stocks. The empirical evidence is largely supportive.

Liquidity regimes and optimal dynamic asset allocation

We solve a portfolio choice problem when expected returns, covariances, and trading costs follow a regime-switching model. The optimal policy trades towards an aim portfolio given by a weighted-average of the conditional mean-variance-efficient portfolios in all future states. The trading speed is higher in more persistent, riskier, and higher-liquidity states. It can be optimal to overweight low Sharpe-ratio assets such as Treasury bonds because they remain liquid even in crisis states. We illustrate our methodology by constructing an optimal US equity market timing portfolio based on an estimated regime-switching model and on trading costs estimated using a large-order institutional trading data set.

Equity market timing and capital structure: evidence on post-IPO firms in Indonesia

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze and evaluate the impacts of equity market timing on corporate capital structure policies in Indonesia by apply Baker and Wurgler’s analytical approach to firms in Indonesia to see, first, if that approach applies to Indonesian firms and, second, if it can be generalized to other emerging markets. Design/methodology/approach This study will focus on capital structure policies based on Market Timing Theory in developing countries, which uses the panel data of companies listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange after IPO. The companies used as research object are 70 firms in the non-financial/non-banking sector with the observation period of 2000–2015. The period of measurement is five years after IPO. Using a past market value in which equity market timing is measured in two-time measurements, i.e. yearly timing and long-term timing to prove its persistence. Findings Consistent with equity market timing theory, the results suggest that firms tend to issue equities when their market valuations are relatively higher than their book values and their past market values are high. As a consequence, the firms become underleveraged or have their debts reduced in the short run. The results of long-term measurement on equity market timing do not appear to affect the firms’ capital structure decisions due to the firms’ relatively quick adjustments of optimal capital structures. The conclusion is that equity market timing is an important element in the short run but not in the long run. Research limitations/implications The results of this study describe how firms in Indonesia take advantage of temporary market share fluctuations through equity market timing in their capital structure policies before ultimately making adjustments to the directions they are targeting. Practical implications The use of equity market timing is more aimed at reducing the debt ratio and avoiding unfavorable conditions in the debt market, as well as taking advantage of the capital gains derived from the differences in their stock prices. This study also has practical implications on investment policies that need to consider the adaptation factor of the industrial environment when it comes to making capital structure decisions, including how the entity must take policy when uncertain economic conditions. Social implications Through the research behavior of capital structure more in-depth decision is expected to provide an overview for investors widely in determining investment policy. Thus, the investment strategy is more planned and can also anticipate unexpected conditions. Originality/value This research is the first study to analyze and to evaluate the impacts of equity market timing on corporate capital structure policies on post-IPO firms in Indonesia. This research is an empirical study that investigates the relevance of equity market timing considerations in the determination of debt-equity choices in the capital structure, included in the conditions of the global financial crisis.

Does equity market timing have a persistent impact on capital structure? Evidence from China

This paper uses the change in individual securities accounts as a measure of equity funding supply to examine whether the persistent timing effect on capital structure exists for the Chinese equity market. This new equity timing measure avoids previous criticisms over a timing measure not being independent of a firm's characteristics of capital structure. Our empirical results show that this new measure is an effective market timing variable for issuing equity in the Chinese equity market, and that a persistent effect of equity market timing on firm capital structure exists for more than 7 years. This paper offers evidence that the market conditions of equity funding supply play an important role in corporate financing decisions in China.

Short Sellers and Managerial Equity Market Timing

Managers tend to issue equity when a firm is overvalued. Short selling is generally frequent among overvalued firms. By conditioning short selling on firm overvaluation, we show that short selling reduces managerial equity market timing and increases leverage. This moderating impact of short selling on market timing is more pronounced in firms with independent boards and with an increased likelihood of misvaluation, is primarily driven by overvaluation relative to long-run value, and occurs mainly through changes in equity issuances. The analyses that utilize the exogenous shock to the short selling environment from the SEC’s Reg SHO pilot program suggest that these results are causal.

Effects of market timing on primary share issues in the Brazilian capital market

This paper analyzes the occurrence of market timing and its effects on primary share issues (IPOs and SEOs) of 123 Brazilian firms in the 2004–2015 period, by investigating the relation between the cumulative abnormal returns and amount of proceeds raised. We use cumulative abnormal returns, before and after the share issue, as a proxy for equity market timing. The results indicate the existence of market timing in the decision to issue shares in the Brazilian capital market, reflected in the abnormal returns, resulting in obtaining a larger volume of resources by the companies practicing this behavior.

Equity Market Timing Approach in IPO and Rights Issue of Companies in Indonesia

The aim of this study is to analyse the effect of equity market timing on the issuance of new shares and capital structures in companies, excluding those in the financial sector, that conducted Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) and rights issues (RIs) in Indonesia from 1990 to 2014. The study took a sample of companies with less than 100% leverage that had experienced delisting and relisting. The results were obtained at the time of an IPO (i.e. the time of a new shares issuance through go public), RI (the time of a new shares issuance as a rights issue), and RI+1 (one year after the rights issue) and capital structure. There was an effect of equity market timing on the issuance of new shares at IPO+1 (1 year after the IPO), IPO+2, RI+2, RI+3 and RI+4, but the companies issued a small number of new shares and raised the funds they lacked by issuing new debt to obtain an optimal capital structure. These results add to the findings that the market timing theory and trade-off theory are not mutually exclusive.

Moderating Impact of Ownership Structure on Relationship of Equity Market Timing with Capital Structure on Companies Listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange

<pre>The purpose of this research is to determine the effect of market to book ratio on leverage change with ownership structure as moderating variable. The research sample is 41 companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange which conducted IPO in 2005 - 2010. The analysis period is five years after an IPO. The independent variable is market to book ratio, the dependent variable is leverage change and control variable is tangibility, profit and size. The moderating variables are managerial and institutional ownerships which included as ownership structure. This research is using data panel regression. The results show that companies in Indonesia pursued the equity market timing strategy because there is a positive effect of market to book ratio into equity issue and negative effect of market to book ratio into leverage change. The results also show that institutional ownership structure moderating the equity market timing. However, managerial ownership does not moderating the equity market timing.</pre>

Liquidity Regimes and Optimal Dynamic Asset Allocation

We solve a portfolio choice problem when expected returns, volatilities and trading-costs follow a regime-switching model. The optimal policy trades towards an aim portfolio given by a weighted-average of the conditional mean-variance portfolios in all future states. The trading speed is higher in more persistent, riskier and higher-liquidity states. It can be optimal to overweight low Sharpe-ratio assets such as Treasury bonds because they remain liquid even in crisis states. We illustrate our methodology by constructing an optimal US equity market timing portfolio based on an estimated regime-switching model and on trading costs estimated using a large-order institutional trading dataset.

Peran Market Timing Ekuitas, dan Strategi Korporasi dalam Menentukan Struktur Modal Perusahaan

The purpose of this study is to corporate strategies in terms of liquidity and growth is expected to increase the confidence of shareholders upon issuance of equity so that the firm has a low capital structure. Population data used are the financial statements of the companies listed in the Index IHSG period 2009-2017. The results of the analysis of the data rights issue period 2010-2016 shows that the equity market timing and capital structure is not supported. The test results influence the interaction between equity market timing and liquidity to capital structure shows that the higher of liquidity of the company has higher leverage. Meanwhile, companies that issue stock when prices are high and have a high asset growth, the company has a capital structure that is low as high.

Equity Issue and a Long-Term Effect of Equity Market Timing on Capital Structure

After the research about a short term effect of equity market timing on capital structure, the author is motivated to do research about a long term effect of equity market timing on capital structure of the firms which is listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The main problems on this research are to understand whether firms use equity market timing theory when issuing equity, and whether equity market timing has a long term effect on its capital structure. Then the purpose of this study is to examine the problems of this research. There are two hypothesis in this research. First, firms use equity market timing when issuing equity, and second, equity market timing has a long term effect on capital structure of firms in Indonesia. This research uses non-financial companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange over the period of 2001 to 2011 as the sample. The data used in this research are panel data. The sample choosing is based on sample non-probability sampling using purposive sampling in form of judgment sampling. The research model used in this study is a distributed-lag regression model. The results of this research show that firms use equity market timing when issuing equity, and equity market timing does not have a long term effect on capital structure of firms in Indonesia. Thus, because there is deviation on the capital structure, then there is an indication that the firms will perform the process of speed adjustment towards the targeted capital structure, the optimum capital structure.

Equity Market Timing and Capital Structure: Evidence from Indonesia Stock Exchange

. It is commonly known that companies issue equity when the market values are high and repurchase when the market values are low. Using the yearly financial statements from 2001 until 2015, with the exclusion of 2008, for 136 non-financial companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), this study analyzed the existence of equity market timing with the consideration of equity and debt market variables using an econometric approach of panel data regression. This study adopted net equity issues as dependent variable. For the independent variables, this study adopted variables that reflect equity market condition: price-to-book value, market, profitability, and debt market variable that is interest rate. This study found that the variable affecting the net equity issues is profitability, while price-to-book value, market, and interest are not found to have a significant relationship with net equity issues. This shall imply that the companies issue external equity when the companies' profitability is good regardless of the valuation, and high interest rate. The findings of this study supported the existence of equity market timing shown by the significant relationship between variable profitability and net equity issues.