Non-linearity in Equity Market Timing: Empirical Evidence From the UK

Abstract

This paper empirically tests the market timing theory to prove that issuing behavior of managers is non-linear. Consistent with the literature we show that mangers increase use of equity to finance their deficit when equities are overvalued and resort to a higher proportion of debt when equities are undervalued. Our results further suggest that mangers however exhibit a distinctive pattern when timing the market. The increase in reliance on equity to finance their deficit during periods of equity overvaluation is non-linear and only significant when the degree of overvaluation is not excessive. Furthermore, during periods of undervaluation managers resort to higher levels of leverage to finance their deficit only when undervaluation levels are excessive. This has serious implications on the ability of the equity market timing as a stand-alone theory in explaining capital structure decisions and poses some interesting implications on the debt-equity choice question when financing the deficit.