Equatorial SST Research Articles

Role of TBO and ENSO scale ocean–atmosphere interaction in the Indo-Pacific region on Asian summer monsoon variability

Interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall has two dominant periodicities, one on the quasi-biennial (2–3 year) time scale corresponding to tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) and the other on low frequency (3–7 year) corresponding to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the present study, the spatial and temporal patterns of various atmospheric and oceanic parameters associated with the Indian summer monsoon on the above two periodicities were investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets for the period 1950–2005. Influences of Indian and Pacific Ocean SSTs on the monsoon season rainfall are different for both of the time scales. Seasonal evolution and movement of SST and Walker circulation are also different. SST and velocity potential anomalies are southeast propagating on the TBO scale, while they are stationary on the ENSO scale. Latent heat flux and relative humidity anomalies over the Indian Ocean and local Hadley circulation between the Indian monsoon region and adjacent oceans have interannual variability only on the TBO time scale. Local processes over the Indian Ocean determine the Indian Ocean SST in biennial periodicity, while the effect of equatorial east Pacific SST is significant in the ENSO periodicity. TBO scale variability is dependent on the local factors of the Indian Ocean and the Indian summer monsoon, while the ENSO scale processes are remotely controlled by the Pacific Ocean.

Variation of mean sea surface temperature and modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation variance during the past 150 years

Evidence is presented that the dominant non‐trend mode of interdecadal global SST variations is linked to significant modulation of ENSO variance during the past 150 years. The mode resembles the interhemispheric SST pattern linked to Sahel rainfall changes, with colder northern hemisphere conditions co‐incident with higher ENSO variance. Simulations of an intermediate coupled global climate model demonstrate that this global SST pattern can drive the interdecadal changes to ENSO variance. The influence on the ENSO dynamics comes primarily from the portion of the SST change local to the tropical Pacific, which is warm over the entire equatorial Pacific particularly in the southeast during times of stronger ENSO activity. We speculate that the warming equatorial SST causes ENSO events occur earlier and thus have longer time to develop, as well as enhancing the vertical temperature gradient and thus increasing the effectiveness of oceanic entrainment.

The Tropical Eastern Pacific Seasonal Cycle: Assessment of Errors and Mechanisms in IPCC AR4 Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Models*

Abstract Warmer SST and more rain in the Northern Hemisphere are observed year-round in the tropical eastern Pacific with southerly wind crossing the equator toward the atmospheric heating. The southerlies are minimal during boreal spring, when two precipitation maxima straddle the equator. Fourteen atmosphere–ocean coupled GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) and one coupled regional model are evaluated against observations with simple metrics that diagnose the seasonal cycle and meridional migration of warm SST and rain. Intermodel correlations of the metrics elucidate common coupled physics. These models variously simulate the climatology of SST and ITCZ rain. In 8 out of 15 models the ITCZ alternates symmetrically between the hemispheres with the seasons. This seasonally alternating ITCZ error generates two wind speed maxima per year—one northerly and one southerly—resulting in spurious cooling in March and a cool SST error of the equatorial ocean. Most models have too much rain in the Southern Hemisphere so that SST and rain are too symmetric about the equator in the annual mean. Weak meridional wind on the equator near the South American coast (2°S–2°N, 80°–90°W) explains the warm SST error there. Northeasterly wind jets blow over the Central American isthmus in winter and cool the SST in the eastern Pacific warm pool. In some models the strength of these winds contributes to the early demise of their northern ITCZ relative to observations. The February–April northerly wind bias on the equator is correlated to the antecedent December–February Central American Pacific wind speed at −0.88. The representation of southern-tropical stratus clouds affects the underlying SST through solar radiation, but its effect on the meridional atmospheric circulation is difficult to discern from the multimodel ensemble, indicating that errors other than the simulation of stratus clouds are also important for accurate simulation of the meridional asymmetry. This study identifies several features to be improved in atmospheric and coupled GCMs, including the northeasterly cross–Central American wind in winter and meridional wind on the equator. Improved simulation of the seasonal cycle of meridional wind could alleviate biases in equatorial SST and improve simulation of ENSO and its teleconnections.

Existence and asymptotic estimates of periodic solutions of a sea–air oscillator model of decadal variations in subtropical cells and equatorial Pacific SST

This paper studies a time delay equation for sea–air oscillator model. The existence and asymptotic estimates of periodic solutions of corresponding problem are obtained by employing the technique of upper and lower solution, and by using the continuation theorem of coincidence degree theory.

Variability in the subtropical-tropical cells and its effect on near-surface temperature of the equatorial Pacific: a model study

Abstract. A set of experiments utilizing different implementations of the global ORCA-LIM model with horizontal resolutions of 2°, 0.5° and 0.25° is used to investigate tropical and extra-tropical influences on equatorial Pacific SST variability at interannual to decadal time scales. The model experiments use a bulk forcing methodology building on the global forcing data set for 1958 to 2000 developed by Large and Yeager (2004) that is based on a blend of atmospheric reanalysis data and satellite products. Whereas representation of the mean structure and transports of the (sub-) tropical Pacific current fields is much improved with the enhanced horizontal resolution, there is only little difference in the simulation of the interannual variability in the equatorial regime between the 0.5° and 0.25° model versions, with both solutions capturing the observed SST variability in the Niño3-region. The question of remotely forced oceanic contributions to the equatorial variability, in particular, the role of low-frequency changes in the transports of the Subtropical Cells (STCs), is addressed by a sequence of perturbation experiments using different combinations of fluxes. The solutions show the near-surface temperature variability to be governed by wind-driven changes in the Equatorial Undercurrent. The relative contributions of equatorial and off-equatorial atmospheric forcing differ between interannual and longer, (multi-) decadal timescales: for the latter there is a significant impact of changes in the equatorward transport of subtropical thermocline water associated with the lower branches of the STCs, related to variations in the off-equatorial trade winds. A conspicuous feature of the STC variability is that the equatorward transports in the interior and along the western boundary partially compensate each other at both decadal and interannual time scales, with the strongest transport extrema occurring during El Niño episodes. The behaviour is rationalized in terms of a wobbling in the poleward extents of the tropical gyres, which is manifested also in a meridional shifting of the bifurcation latitudes of the North and South Equatorial Current systems.

Tropical Atlantic Decadal Oscillation and Its Potential Impact on the Equatorial Atmosphere–Ocean Dynamics: A Simple Model Study

Abstract Simple coupled atmosphere–ocean models are used to study the potential influence of the tropical Atlantic Ocean decadal oscillation on the equatorial Atlantic atmosphere–ocean dynamics. Perturbing the model tropical Atlantic at the extratropics (25°–30°) with a decadal frequency, interhemispheric SST dipole mode emerges due to the wind–evaporation–SST feedback. Near the equator, a cross-equatorial oceanic gyre develops owing to the dipole-induced wind stress curl. Once formed, this oceanic gyre transports surface water across the equator from the cold to the warm hemisphere in the western boundary region and from the warm to the cold hemisphere in the Sverdrup interior. Interestingly, this occurs during both the positive and negative phases of the dipole oscillation, thus producing a persistent positive zonal SST gradient along the equator. Bjerknes-type feedback later kicks in to further strengthen the equatorial SST anomaly. Eventually, this feature grows to a quasi-stationary stage sustaining the equatorial westerly wind anomalies, thus also causing the depression (uplift) of the equatorial thermocline in the east (west), a condition similar to the Atlantic Niño. The dynamic relationship between the dipole SST oscillation and the equatorial thermocline suggests that a strengthening (weakening) of the dipole mode corresponds to a weakening (strengthening) of the equatorial thermocline slope.

Role of moist energy advection in formulating anomalous Walker Circulation associated with El Niño

The role of meridional moist energy advection in formulating anomalous Walker Circulation during El Niño events is investigated using observational data and linearized GCM. During the El Niño mature phase, the warm pool is extended to the central Pacific, so that the magnitudes of equatorial SST become uniform over the western‐central Pacific. In contrast to the uniform SST distribution over the western‐central Pacific, the maximum of equatorial convective activities are zonally displaced from the western to the central Pacific. That is in line with the fact that the strong anomalous descending motions are located over the western Pacific without local negative SST anomalies. It is demonstrated here that suppressed convection over the western Pacific is associated with cold‐dry moist energy advection due to low‐level equatorward winds. The meridional cold‐dry moist energy advection leads the vertical warm‐wet moist energy advection and adiabatic warming processes (descending motion) to balance the moist energy budget. It is shown that this meridional wind is a part of a cyclonic Rossby wave in response to the anomalous convection induced by El Niño SST. This mechanism, suggested here, is validated by using a linearized GCM. The model results show the downward branch of the anomalous Walker Circulation over the western Pacific is significantly reduced when the moist energy advection is not allowed.

Tropical Pacific impacts of convective momentum transport in the SNU coupled GCM

Impacts of convective momentum transport (CMT) on tropical Pacific climate are examined, using an atmospheric (AGCM) and coupled GCM (CGCM) from Seoul National University. The CMT scheme affects the surface mainly via a convection-compensating atmospheric subsidence which conveys momentum downward through most of the troposphere. AGCM simulations—with SSTs prescribed from climatological and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions—show substantial changes in circulation when CMT is added, such as an eastward shift of the climatological trade winds and west Pacific convection. The CMT also alters the ENSO wind anomalies by shifting them eastward and widening them meridionally, despite only subtle changes in the precipitation anomaly patterns. During ENSO, CMT affects the low-level winds mainly via the anomalous convection acting on the climatological westerly wind shear over the central Pacific—so that an eastward shift of convection transfers more westerly momentum toward the surface than would occur without CMT. By altering the low-level circulation, the CMT further alters the precipitation, which in turn feeds back on the CMT. In the CGCM, CMT affects the simulated climatology by shifting the mean convection and trade winds eastward and warming the equatorial SST; the ENSO period and amplitude also increase. In contrast to the AGCM simulations, CMT substantially alters the El Nino precipitation anomaly patterns in the CGCM. Also discussed are possible impacts of the CMT-induced changes in climatology on the simulated ENSO.

The sea–air oscillator model of decadal variations in subtropical cells and equatorial Pacific SST

In this paper a time delay equation for sea-air oscillator model is studied. The aim is to create an approximate solving method of nonlinear equation for sea-air oscillator model. Employing the method of variational iteration, it obtains the approximate solution of corresponding equation. This method is an approximate analytic method, which can be often used for analysing other behaviour of the sea surface temperature anomaly of the atmosphere-ocean oscillator model.

Monsoon Dynamics with Interactive Forcing. Part II: Impact of Eddies and Asymmetric Geometries

Abstract The roles of eddies and forcing asymmetry in the dynamics of the large-scale monsoon circulation are investigated with a general circulation model. The net impact of eddies is found to be a slight weakening of the zonal mean monsoon circulation. The eddies strongly impact the momentum budget of the circulation, but the qualitative behavior of the monsoon flow is not substantially altered. The introduction of asymmetric forcing reveals the limitations of axisymmetric studies in representing the fully three-dimensional monsoon. Advection of low subcloud moist static energy air from the midlatitude oceans is seen to strongly impact the subcloud moist static energy budget in the continental subtropics, limiting the poleward extent of the monsoon. The advection of low moist static energy air must be blocked by orography, or the source of low moist static energy air must be removed, in order to induce strong precipitation over the subtropical landmass. An equatorial SST gradient is needed to induce a cross-equatorial meridional monsoon circulation. The location of the maximum subcloud moist static energy remains a good indicator for the limit of the monsoon.

Idealized Hot Spot Experiments with a General Circulation Model

Abstract Idealized experiments are conducted using a GCM coupled to a 20-m slab ocean model to examine the short-term response to an initial localized positive equatorial SST anomaly, or “hot spot.” A hot spot is imposed upon an aquaplanet with globally uniform 28°C SST, insolation, and trace gas concentrations designed to mimic tropical warm pool conditions. No boundary condition or external parameter other than the Coriolis parameter varies with latitude. A 15-member ensemble is initiated using random atmospheric initial conditions. A 2°C equatorial warm anomaly is switched on, along with ocean coupling (day 0). Enhanced deep convection rapidly develops near the hot spot, forcing an anomalous large-scale circulation that resembles the linear response of a dry atmosphere to a localized heating, as in the Gill model. Enhanced convection, the anomalous large-scale circulation, and enhanced wind speed peak in amplitude at about day 15. Enhanced latent heat fluxes driven primarily by an increase in vector mean wind damp the anomalous heat content of the ocean near the hot spot before day 20. Between day 20 and day 50, suppressed latent heat fluxes due to suppressed synoptic eddy variance cause a warming of the remote Tropics in regions of anomalous low-level easterly flow. This wind-driven evaporative atmosphere–ocean exchange results in a 60–70-day oscillation in tropical mean oceanic heat content, accompanied by a compensating out-of-phase oscillation in vertically integrated atmospheric moist static energy. Beyond day 70 of the simulation, positive SST anomalies are found across much of the tropical belt. These slowly decay toward the 28°C background state.

Tropical Atlantic SST Prediction with Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCMs

Abstract Variations in tropical Atlantic SST are an important factor in seasonal forecasts in the region and beyond. An analysis is given of the capabilities of the latest generation of coupled GCM seasonal forecast systems to predict tropical Atlantic SST anomalies. Skill above that of persistence is demonstrated in both the northern tropical and equatorial Atlantic, but not farther south. The inability of the coupled models to correctly represent the mean seasonal cycle is a major problem in attempts to forecast equatorial SST anomalies in the boreal summer. Even when forced with observed SST, atmosphere models have significant failings in this area. The quality of ocean initial conditions for coupled model forecasts is also a cause for concern, and the adequacy of the near-equatorial ocean observing system is in doubt. A multimodel approach improves forecast skill only modestly, and large errors remain in the southern tropical Atlantic. There is still much scope for improving forecasts of tropical Atlantic SST.

Modeling the tropical Pacific Ocean using a regional coupled climate model

A high-resolution tropical Pacific general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a global atmospheric GCM is described in this paper. The atmosphere component is the 5° × 4° global general circulation model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) with 9 levels in the vertical direction. The ocean component with a horizontal resolution of 0.5°, is based on a low-resolution model (2° × 1° in longitude-latitude). Simulations of the ocean component are first compared with its previous version. Results show that the enhanced ocean horizontal resolution allows an improved ocean state to be simulated: this involves (1) an apparent decrease in errors in the tropical Pacific cold tongue region, which exists in many ocean models, (2) more realistic large-scale flows, and (3) an improved ability to simulate the interannual variability and a reduced root mean square error (RMSE) in a long time integration. In coupling these component models, a monthly “linear-regression” method is employed to correct the model’s exchanged flux between the sea and the atmosphere. A 100-year integration conducted with the coupled GCM (CGCM) shows the effectiveness of such a method in reducing climate drift. Results from years 70 to 100 are described. The model produces a reasonably realistic annual cycle of equatorial SST. The large SSTA is confined to the eastern equatorial Pacific with little propagation. Irregular warm and cold events alternate with a broad spectrum of periods between 24 and 50 months, which is very realistic. But the simulated variability is weaker than the observed and is also asymmetric in the sense of the amplitude of the warm and cold events.

Properties of El Niño–Southern Oscillation in Different Equilibrium Climates with HadCM3

Abstract The ENSO variability in three long, stable, steady-state integrations of the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3) is analyzed, relevant to climatic conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), of the preindustrial period [control (CTL)], and of a greenhouse stabilization scenario (GHS) at 4 times the preindustrial CO2 concentration. It is found that progressively from LGM to CTL and GHS, the SST variability pattern associated with ENSO is centered farther west, and the oscillation acquires a shorter dominant period. While there are no large changes in total SST variability, very strong events become less frequent, and El Niño events develop over a narrower period within the seasonal cycle. The westward ENSO pattern shift is concurrent with a similar shift in the climatological wind stress distribution and with increased convective activity over the west equatorial Pacific. The wind response to anomalous SSTs follows this shift and increases in strength. The thermocline feedback becomes stronger in the 4 × CO2 integration, but the largest SST anomalies are associated with surface processes. The role of surface flux damping for the decay of anomalous SSTs is reduced in LGM and increased in GHS. From the analysis, the principal changes in mean climate that appear to affect the evolution of ENSO-related SST anomalies in HadCM3 are thus the changes in zonal wind stress over the equator, the depth of the equatorial thermocline, and the sensitivity of atmospheric convection to equatorial SST anomalies.

Impact of Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillations on the Indian Ocean Dipole during the 1990s*

Abstract Effects of atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) on the Indian Ocean zonal dipole mode (IOZDM) are investigated by analyzing available observations and a suite of solutions to an ocean general circulation model, namely, the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Data and model solutions for the period 1991–2000 are analyzed, a period that includes two strong IOZDM events, during 1994 and 1997, and a weak one, in 1991. Both the data analysis and model results suggest that atmospheric ISOs play a significant role in causing irregularity of the two strong IOZDM events and the premature termination of the weak one. Of particular interest is a basinwide, wind-driven oceanic resonance with a period near 90 days, involving the propagation of equatorial Kelvin and first-meridional-mode Rossby waves across the basin. Before the onset of the strong 1997 dipole, wind variability had significant power near 90 days, and the resonance was strongly excited. Associated with the resonance was a deepened thermocline in the eastern basin during August and early September, which reduced the upwelling in the eastern antinode region of the IOZDM, thereby delaying the reversal of the equatorial zonal SST gradient—an important indicator of a strong IOZDM—by over a month. A similar deepened thermocline in the eastern basin also contributed to the premature termination of the weak 1991 dipole. During the 1994 IOZDM, the winds had little power near 90 days, and the resonant mode was not prominent. The ISOs influenced the IOZDM through both surface fluxes and thermocline variability. They enhanced warming in the western antinode region during October, the peak phase of the IOZDM, intensifying its strength. During November, strong winds significantly cooled the western and central basin through upwelling and surface fluxes, cooling SST there and contributing to the early and quick termination of the 1994 event.

Temperature Advection by Tropical Instability Waves

AbstractA numerical model of the tropical Pacific Ocean is used to investigate the processes that cause the horizontal temperature advection of tropical instability waves (TIWs). It is found that their temperature advection cannot be explained by the processes on which the mixing length paradigm is based. Horizontal mixing of temperature across the equatorial SST front does happen, but it is small relative to the “oscillatory” temperature advection of TIWs. The basic mechanism is that TIWs move water back and forth across a patch of large vertical entrainment. Outside this patch, the atmosphere heats the water and this heat is then transferred into the thermocline inside the patch. These patches of strong localized entrainment are due to equatorial Ekman divergence and due to thinning of the mixed layer in the TIW cyclones. The latter process is responsible for the zonal temperature advection, which is as large as the meridional temperature advection but has not yet been observed. Thus, in the previous observational literature the TIW contribution to the mixed layer heat budget may have been underestimated significantly.

Sea-air oscillator model for equatorial eastern Pacific SST

A sea-air oscillator model of the nonlinear coupling system is studied.Using the variational iteration principle,a series of corresponding functional is constructed.Then the Lagrange operators are selected.Finally,using the generalized variational iteration method,the approximate sequences of a series of solutions for the sea-air oscillator model are obtained.

Westerly Wind Bursts: ENSO’s Tail Rather than the Dog?

Abstract Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) in the equatorial Pacific occur during the development of most El Niño events and are believed to be a major factor in ENSO’s dynamics. Because of their short time scale, WWBs are normally considered part of a stochastic forcing of ENSO, completely external to the interannual ENSO variability. Recent observational studies, however, suggest that the occurrence and characteristics of WWBs may depend to some extent on the state of ENSO components, implying that WWBs, which force ENSO, are modulated by ENSO itself. Satellite and in situ observations are used here to show that WWBs are significantly more likely to occur when the warm pool is extended eastward. Based on these observations, WWBs are added to an intermediate complexity coupled ocean–atmosphere ENSO model. The representation of WWBs is idealized such that their occurrence is modulated by the warm pool extent. The resulting model run is compared with a run in which the WWBs are stochastically applied. The modulation of WWBs by ENSO results in an enhancement of the slow frequency component of the WWBs. This causes the amplitude of ENSO events forced by modulated WWBs to be twice as large as the amplitude of ENSO events forced by stochastic WWBs with the same amplitude and average frequency. Based on this result, it is suggested that the modulation of WWBs by the equatorial Pacific SST is a critical element of ENSO’s dynamics, and that WWBs should not be regarded as purely stochastic forcing. In the paradigm proposed here, WWBs are still an important aspect of ENSO’s dynamics, but they are treated as being partially stochastic and partially affected by the large-scale ENSO dynamics, rather than being completely external to ENSO. It is further shown that WWB modulation by the large-scale equatorial SST field is roughly equivalent to an increase in the ocean–atmosphere coupling strength, making the coupled equatorial Pacific effectively self-sustained.

Decadal variability of shallow cells and equatorial sea surface temperature in a numerical model of the Atlantic

The relative role of extraequatorial mechanisms modulating decadal sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the equatorial Atlantic is investigated using a suite of sensitivity experiments based on an ocean general circulation model. The model is forced by observed wind stress and/or computed heat flux from an associated advective atmospheric mixed layer model. In addition, the surface forcing is optionally applied on the equator or in off‐equatorial regions. The long‐term response of equatorial SST is dominated by local forcing. However, a weak but significant part of the response that is not in phase with the locally induced SST variability is caused by remote forcing. Subtropical cells (STCs) provide the oceanic bridging of the climate signals. The dynamical forcing leads to a spin‐up and spin‐down of the shallow cells, which, in the case of local forcing included, coincides with cold and warm SSTA. The local heat flux forcing reveals an overall damping tendency on the dynamical SST response. When excluding the local forcing, the isolation of the effect of the northern remote forcing from the one in the south appears to be essential in understanding the respective mechanisms at work. In the Northern Hemisphere, the spin‐up and spin‐down of the STC is highly correlated with the (lagging) SSTA, and the effect of off‐equatorial heat flux forcing on SSTA is negligible. In the Southern Hemisphere, both momentum and heat fluxes in the subtropics lead to a significant SST response on the equator.

El Niño and Greenhouse Warming: Results from Ensemble Simulations with the NCAR CCSM

Abstract The changes in model ENSO behavior due to an increase in greenhouse gases, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Business-As-Usual scenario, are investigated using a 62-member ensemble 140-yr simulation (1940–2080) with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM; version 1.4). Although the global mean surface temperature increases by about 1.2 K over the period 2000–80, there are no significant changes in the ENSO period, amplitude, and spatial patterns. To explain this behavior, an analysis of the simulation results is combined with results from intermediate complexity coupled ocean–atmosphere models. It is shown that this version of the CCSM is incapable of simulating a correct meridional extension of the equatorial wind stress response to equatorial SST anomalies. The wind response pattern is too narrow and its strength is insensitive to background SST. This leads to a more stable Pacific climate system, a shorter ENSO period, and a reduced sensitivity of ENSO to global warming.