We consider scattering of low-amplitude dispersive waves at an intense optical soliton which constitutes a nonlinear perturbation of the refractive index. Specifically, we consider a single-mode optical fiber and a group velocity matched pair: an optical soliton and a nearly perfectly reflected dispersive wave, a fiber-optical analog of the event horizon. By combining (i) an adiabatic approach that is used in soliton perturbation theory and (ii) scattering theory from quantum mechanics, we give a quantitative account of the evolution of all soliton parameters. In particular, we quantify the increase in the soliton peak power that may result in the spontaneous appearance of an extremely large, so-called champion soliton. The presented adiabatic theory agrees well with the numerical solutions of the pulse propagation equation. Moreover, we predict the full frequency band of the scattered dispersive waves and explain an emerging caustic structure in the space-time domain.