Environmental Protection Agency Estimates Research Articles

Pediatric melanoma: Risk factor and survival analysis of the SEER Cancer Registry database

7556 Background: Three hundred to 350 new cases of malignant melanoma are diagnosed in children each year in the USA. Risk factors and prognosis in pediatric melanoma are poorly defined. Methods: We analyzed the 1183 pediatric (<20 years of age) and the 34,165 young adult (20–44 years of age) cases of melanoma contained in the 2000 National Cancer Institute's Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Database. We evaluated survival data and risk factors for melanoma development including levels of environmental ultraviolet radiation (UV) based on Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) measurements. Results: Rates of melanoma were lower in blacks (−96%, 95% confidence interval (CI) −98 to −92) compared to whites and males (−30%, 95% CI −38 to −22) compared to females. The incidence risk ratio of melanoma increased 8% (95% CI 7 to 9) per year of age. Melanoma rates varied in different geographic regions, and there was no clear relationship to EPA estimates of UV exposure. Pediatric cases had reported 5-year survival rates of 90.8% (95% CI 88.8 to 92.4). Five-year survival in children was 100% for in situ disease, 94.8% (95% CI 92.8 to 96.3) for localized disease, 69.4% (95% CI 57.6 to 78.5) for regional disease, and 36.1% (95% CI 18.6 to 53.9) for distant disease. The hazard ratio of death for the entire group was increased with older age, male gender, advanced disease, race other than white, second primary, or year of diagnosis before 1990. Conclusions: Factors associated with increased risk of pediatric and young adult melanoma in the SEER registries include Caucasian race, female gender, increasing age, and geographic location at diagnosis. Survival in pediatric patients with melanoma is similar to that seen in young adults. Survival is poor for children and adolescents who present with regional or distant metastases. Effective therapeutic strategies are needed for this group. No significant financial relationships to disclose.

Pediatric melanoma: Risk factor and survival analysis of the SEER Cancer Registry database

7556 Background: Three hundred to 350 new cases of malignant melanoma are diagnosed in children each year in the USA. Risk factors and prognosis in pediatric melanoma are poorly defined. Methods: We analyzed the 1183 pediatric (<20 years of age) and the 34,165 young adult (20–44 years of age) cases of melanoma contained in the 2000 National Cancer Institute's Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Database. We evaluated survival data and risk factors for melanoma development including levels of environmental ultraviolet radiation (UV) based on Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) measurements. Results: Rates of melanoma were lower in blacks (−96%, 95% confidence interval (CI) −98 to −92) compared to whites and males (−30%, 95% CI −38 to −22) compared to females. The incidence risk ratio of melanoma increased 8% (95% CI 7 to 9) per year of age. Melanoma rates varied in different geographic regions, and there was no clear relationship to EPA estimates of UV exposure. Pediatric cases had reported 5-year survival rates of 90.8% (95% CI 88.8 to 92.4). Five-year survival in children was 100% for in situ disease, 94.8% (95% CI 92.8 to 96.3) for localized disease, 69.4% (95% CI 57.6 to 78.5) for regional disease, and 36.1% (95% CI 18.6 to 53.9) for distant disease. The hazard ratio of death for the entire group was increased with older age, male gender, advanced disease, race other than white, second primary, or year of diagnosis before 1990. Conclusions: Factors associated with increased risk of pediatric and young adult melanoma in the SEER registries include Caucasian race, female gender, increasing age, and geographic location at diagnosis. Survival in pediatric patients with melanoma is similar to that seen in young adults. Survival is poor for children and adolescents who present with regional or distant metastases. Effective therapeutic strategies are needed for this group. No significant financial relationships to disclose.

A Field Evaluation of the Predictive Value of a Hand-Held Drum Pressure Detection Device

According to Environmental Protection Agency estimates, 20% of hazardous waste drums currently managed in the 6500 known, uncontrolled Superfund removal or remediation sites contain some degree of elevated internal pressurization. This estimate increases to 90% during the summer months, and, overall, up to 5% of the drums stored in active treatment, storage, and disposal facilities may be pressurized. The ability to identify pressurized drums in real-time would enhance worker health and safety, reduce the potential for environmental contamination, and minimize property damage. A prototype hand-held drum pressure detection device was field tested at an active Resource Conservation and Recovery Act mixed waste operation using acoustic resonance spectroscopy technology to identify pressurized drums. The waste operation used a drum venting system that measured the actual drum pressure of retrieved drums. Drum venting system data were analyzed to quantify the ability of the drum pressure detection device to correctly identify drums with elevated internal pressure. After 456 drums were measured, the dichotomous pressure data (pressurized vs. nonpressurized) were analyzed. The relationship between the drum venting system and drum pressure detection device pressure data was found to be statistically significant. With alpha and beta values of 0.05, the negative predictive value was 0.94, the positive predictive value was 0.47, the sensitivity was 0.82, and the specificity was 0.77. Although capable of identifying nonpressurized drums, this instrument may not be appropriate for general use. Study results and critical improvements necessary to improve the instrument's predictive value, specificity, and sensitivity are presented.

Epidemiology and Drinking Water

Epidemiology and Drinking Water

How Brown Was My Valley

“Brownfields” in the environmental context is one of those modest success stories that come out of the environmental regulatory arena from time to time. The Brownfields Initiative is important enough that, in her recent resignation, US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Christine Todd-Whitman wrote that “our success in enacting long-overdue brownfields legislation is already accelerating the reclamation of abandoned parcels of land in hundreds of communities across America”. For years, critics have hammered away at the wasteful, ponderous, and punitive features of two federal laws, the 1980 Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act and its so-called “Superfund” program, which deals with abandoned contaminated facilities, and the 1976 Resource Conservation and Regulation Act (RCRA), which regulates hazardous waste operations and sites. Begun informally in 1995, the EPA's “Brownfields Initiative” (www.epa.gov/brownfields) allowed innovative compromises to be made between those laudable but burdensome laws, and the reality of returning industrial sites to beneficial use relatively quickly. A “brownfields site” is defined as any real property whose expansion, redevelopment, or reuse may be complicated by the presence (or potential presence) of a hazardous substance, solid waste, pollutant, or contaminant. These are often abandoned industrial properties and other areas that suffered from lack of attention and no hope of redevelopment. The EPA estimates that between 500 000 and one million brownfields sites are spread across the US. Generally there is no responsible person to remediate the property, so it has to be assessed, investigated, or cleaned up by someone who is not potentially liable for cleaning it up, pursuant to some sort of arrangement with the EPA or an appropriate state or local agency. The program has received general bipartisan support both in Congress and at state level, has helped spur the redevelopment of properties that might still be festering, and has fostered inner-city restoration and renewal projects. It has also added thousands of jobs to new businesses which once steered clear of contaminated real estate, the associated difficulty of cleaning it up, and the draconian laws that might have held them liable if they took on the task. Some 40 states have now developed voluntary programs that are cleaning up hundreds of brownfield sites. In 2002, the Small Business Liability Relief and Brownfields Revitalization Act became law. It codifies many of EPA's policies regarding brownfields and provides assessment grants for community planning and the investigation of potential sites. Grants are awarded through a competitive system that ranks proposals. The law also created revolving loan grants for brownfields cleanups and job training grants for those living in such areas. Importantly, it provided certain legal exceptions from the Superfund law for innocent and adjacent landowners, prospective purchasers, and others agreeing to undertake remediation of contaminated properties. The legislation also applies to former hazardous waste treatment, storage, and disposal facilities. Finally, the law promises to streamline required cleanups and the revitalization of urban areas which heretofore remained abandoned. In addition, certain tax incentives now exist to spur cleanup and redevelopment of brownfields in distressed urban and rural areas. The EPA began the RCRA Brownfields Prevention Initiative in 1998, encouraging the remediation of some lower priority hazardous waste sites that needed cleaning up. A potential RCRA Brownfields site is a RCRA facility, or portion of such a facility, that is not in full use, where there is redevelopment potential, and where reuse or redevelopment is slowed due to real or perceived concerns about actual or potential contamination, liability, and RCRA requirements. The Brownfields program has been accompanied by a national realization that voluntary cleanups, which bring contaminants down to reasonable levels rather than zero, are the wiser, easier, and more practical course. To that degree, the Brownfields Initiative has been a nationwide success. Still, much could be done to improve it further. Financing and grants are still limited and red tape clogs projects in some states. Nevertheless, “the greenfields that we used to roam,” in the words of the folk group The Brothers Four, are now visible alongside new businesses and new opportunities unimaginable a quarter of a century ago. Douglass Rohrman

Costs And Benefits Of Mitigating Radon In Drinking Water

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is considering regulating radon, a naturally occurring soil gas dissolved in drinking water, because it poses a lung cancer risk. Benefits and costs of compliance are estimated for 29 water systems with radon above the proposed maximum contaminant level. The estimated cancer risk is three times higher than assumed by EPA, making it likely that a national regulatory standard of 300 picocuries per liter of water would pass a cost-benefit test. Site specific estimates of compliance costs are also substantially greater than EPA estimates. Nevertheless, the estimated cost per avoided death is only about $1 million.

Great Lakes and Inland Sport Fish Consumption by Licensed Anglers in Two Ontario Communities

Risk assessments for potential health effects associated with consumption of contaminated Great Lakes (GL) sport fish (SF) rely heavily on estimated human consumption and preparation practices. The mid-1990s study reported here used a two stage sampling approach based on selection of high GL fish consumers among licensed Ontario anglers. Mean GL fish consumption (meals/year), meal size (g/meal) and estimated grams/day in two Ontario GL communities were: 34.2, 186.1, and 19.9 in Cornwall and 10.9, 331.9, and 12.3 in Mississauga respectively, in the same range as U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates used in the development of water quality criteria. Yet different species preferences, awareness of advisories and other sport and commercial fish consumption by participating anglers have implications for overall contaminant intake, suggesting the continued need for site-specific consumption surveys.

Radon

Residential and occupational exposure to radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer after cigarette smoking. As many as eight million homes in the US have elevated radon levels according to Environmental Protection Agency estimates. High exposure levels in homes are largely a result of radon-contaminated gas rising from the soil. This makes it an unusual indoor air pollutant in that it has a natural source. This study examines the synergism between smoking and radon, what levels are considered safe, and what to do to safeguard against overexposure to radon.

THE THREAT OF OIL SPILLS FROM STORAGE TANKS AT END USER FACILITIES

ABSTRACT The oil pollution prevention program of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) addresses a large regulated community—the owners and operators of several hundred thousand nontransportation-related facilities. Regulated oil facilities generally are thought of as refineries, terminals, production field tanks, fuel oil dealers, or gasoline service stations. Some studies of the nationwide petroleum storage capacity do not even consider tanks owned by petroleum consumers, while others recognize that end users constitute a significant part of the nation's oil storage. The storage capacity of fixed petroleum tankage in the tertiary segment (agricultural, commercial, electric utility, industrial, military/government, residential, and transportation sectors) is estimated to comprise more than 20 % of the total U.S. storage capacity. EPA estimates that more than one-half of the facilities required to prepare Spill Prevention Control and Countermeasure (SPCC) plans are such end users. The focus of oil pollution prevention, of course, is preventing spills. Several years ago, an American Petroleum Institute report on aboveground storage tank incidents stated that more than 25% of large petroleum releases in the United States were from tanks controlled by companies outside the petroleum industry. Recent data on large spills (10,000 gallons or more) show similar patterns. Of course, most nontransportation-related spills are from storage tanks or facilities in the petroleum industry (production wells, refineries, terminals, tank farms, and fuel oil dealers). More than 40%, however, are from electric utilities, manufacturing plants, military bases, airports, railroad yards, and other end user facilities. Smaller spills come from a variety of facility types. It is important for EPA and other groups to recognize the end user community and the threat of spills from end user facilities, and to begin to work with the owners and operators of end user facilities to educate them about EPA's oil pollution prevention regulation.

Winds of Change: Reducing Transboundary Air Pollutants

Sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, persistent organic pollutants, particulate matter, and heavy metals---air pollutants once thought to be problems that could be solved locally, where the effects occur---are all currently being discussed in international forums. A spate of meetings and agreements in recent months has shown many international governments to be more willing than ever to try to limit the amount of their air pollution that drifts into other countries. Prompting this policy shift are increasing emissions in some parts of the world, better monitoring, and an improved understanding of air pollution transport and the effects of air pollution. In most regions of the world, however, no international agreements on air pollution exist at all, while in others, many overlapping local, multilateral, and global agreements address the problem simultaneously. According to the World Health Organization, air pollution causes nearly 3 million deaths per year, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates that ground-level ozone causes damage to U.S. crops totaling $1-2 billion each year.

Winds of change: reducing transboundary air pollutants.

Sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, persistent organic pollutants, particulate matter, and heavy metals---air pollutants once thought to be problems that could be solved locally, where the effects occur---are all currently being discussed in international forums. A spate of meetings and agreements in recent months has shown many international governments to be more willing than ever to try to limit the amount of their air pollution that drifts into other countries. Prompting this policy shift are increasing emissions in some parts of the world, better monitoring, and an improved understanding of air pollution transport and the effects of air pollution. In most regions of the world, however, no international agreements on air pollution exist at all, while in others, many overlapping local, multilateral, and global agreements address the problem simultaneously. According to the World Health Organization, air pollution causes nearly 3 million deaths per year, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates that ground-level ozone causes damage to U.S. crops totaling $1-2 billion each year.

A global inventory of carbon monoxide emissions from motor vehicles

Automobile emissions are the major urban source of carbon monoxide, and they are also important globally. One estimate by the Japanese Automobile Research Institute (JARI) of the 1990 global CO emissions from automobiles is 231 megatonnes (Mt). The same source gives the USA 1990 emissions as 21 Mt, whereas the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimate 57 Mt. The two sources agree that the mobile source (including airplanes) CO2 emissions are about 1500 Mt. Thus the disagreement is in the CO/CO2 molar ratio (JARI 0.022, EPA 0.062). We have developed a device which measures the CO/CO2 ratio in the exhaust of motor vehicles passing in a single lane. At busy locations we measure over 1000 vehicles per hour. Over the last 10 yrs these ratios have been measured from over ten million vehicles in eighteen countries. The results can be directly converted into mass of emissions per liter of fuel burned. On-road CO emissions depend on the vehicle technology, its state of maintenance, and thus upon fleet age. Our estimate of the 1991 global CO emissions from motor vehicles is 213 Mt, of which 88% (188 Mt) were produced in the northern hemisphere, with 17% (36 Mt) produced in the USA. This estimate for USA 1991 emissions is intermediate between the JARI and EPA 1990 estimates. For 1995 relative to 1991, we estimate a 17% decrease in global CO emissions from motor vehicles, arising from fleet emissions technology upgrades, somewhat countered by increased fuel consumption.

Why We Should Discount the Views of Those Who Discount Discounting

Deciding how to allocate the resources to be spent on promoting health and safety through governmental regulation is a challenging task of immense significance. The Environmental Protection Agency estimates that roughly $250 billion (2.6% of Gross National Product) will be spent on pollution abatement alone in the year 2000.1 Billions more are spent on a wide array of other health and safety measures. Tens of thousands of lives will be lost or saved depending on whether these allocations are made foolishly or wisely.2 In 1986, Office of Management and Budget (OMB) economist John Morrall devised a now-famous table designed to assess the desirability of an array of federal health and safety regulations.3 Morrall concluded that roughly half of the forty-four regulations he reviewed were unsound because the cost per life saved exceeded $26.8 million in 1998 dollars-a

Light TCA peels for skin rejuvenation: Effects on skin hydration, skin barrier function and skin elasticity

With the aging of the American population, particularly those 76 million individuals known as the “baby boomers” starting to turn 50, a great deal of attention has been focused on “anti-aging” therapies, not only for general health purposes, but also for cutaneous aging. The aging process on the skin results in medical as well as cosmetic consequences.These aging effects of the skin are generally characterized as resulting from both an intrinsic process as well as an extrinsic process. Intrinsic aging refers to those processes that result purely from the passage of time. These effects generally start to become visible around age 30 to 35 and generally are subtle until more advanced years (generally over age 60) and are most easily visualized in non–sun-exposed areas of the skin. These effects include thinning of the epidermis, hypocellularity of the dermis, and a gradual decrease in numbers of dermal blood vessels, collagen, and elastic tissue. This results in pallor and fine wrinkles, with loss of elasticity and sagging of the skin.19Extrinsic aging is due primarily to the effects of environmental ultraviolet (UV) radiation. There are overwhelming epidemiologic and laboratory data to indicate that sun exposure is the single most important factor in causing extrinsic aging of the skin, hence, the terms photoaging and photodamage. For the average person, the vast majority of this sun exposure occurs during multiple brief exposures to the sun during daily normal activities, not in the pursuit of a tan.This chronic cumulative UV exposure results in the development of actinic keratoses, squamous cell carcinoma, basal cell carcinoma, and melanoma. UV light is considered a “complete carcinogen”: It not only initiates cancers through DNA mutations but also promotes their growth through the inflammatory processes associated with cumulative UV exposure.47 This has resulted in the annual appearance of greater than one million new cases of basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma, as well as over 38,000 new cases of melanoma annually in the US population.21, 37 The additional effect of ozone depletion in the atmosphere has led to the conclusion that these skin cancers will become even more common. The United States Environmental Protection Agency estimates that 12 million additional cases of skin cancer and 210,000 additional skin cancer deaths will occur in the next 50 years from the currently existing amount of ozone depletion.13, 37 Should it worsen beyond the current levels, these additional numbers will escalate as well. The cost of treating these medically significant precancers and cancers is enormous and increasing, both as the population age increases and the ozone layer decreases, currently costing billions of dollars annually. One study of people over 50 years of age found that 100% had evidence of photodamage and 65% had significant damage, including actinic keratoses and skin cancers.3 Early recognition and effective treatment of photoaged or photodamaged skin will decrease the numbers of these lesions as well as the cost of treating them.In addition to the medically significant changes, the basic fact that cumulative sun exposure increases with age has led to the association of various signs of sun damage with chronological aging. It is these changes that often motivate the patient to seek medical evaluation, because they may be unaware of the significance of the visible changes associated with actinic keratoses and various skin cancers per se, but rather view them all as a sign of “premature aging,” at any age.Photodamage accounts for more than 90% of the unwanted changes in skin appearance of the sun-exposed areas. These changes include fine to coarse wrinkling, laxity, leathery and coarse skin texture progressing to atrophy in severe photodamage, irregular pigmentation, dry scaling and roughness of the skin surface, telangiectasia, and sallowness, as well as easy bruisability.19, 39, 49Solar elastosis causes the deposition of an abnormal, yellow, amorphous elastotic material in the upper dermis that replaces normal collagen and elastin and does not have the resiliency or structure of normal elastic tissue. The walls of the reduced numbers of blood vessels become thin and fragile, resulting in clinical purpura from mild trauma. The compromised maturation of keratinocytes and abnormal melanization of the epidermis result in irregular pigmentation as well as precancerous and cancerous epidermal cells.Facial skin aging has been associated with negative views of body image, self-esteem, and self-confidence.24, 25, 40, 41 As a consequence of all of these medical, cosmetic, and psychological factors, reversal of photoaging has become a frequent goal pursued by the public, the medical profession, and the cosmetic industry.

On the assessment of the maximally exposed individual (MEI) at superfund sites using Monte Carlo simulations

In this paper, the methodology used by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to protect a small population that may be at high risk, referred to as the “maximally exposed individual”; (MEI) is assessed. Monte Carlo techniques and more reasonable values for exposure parameters are used to determine a more physiologically reasonable MEI. The Monte Carlo MEI is compared to the EPA's quantification of the MEI as well as the results of a standard MC assessment. In general, the EPA's estimate of MEI risks were found to be much larger (one to three orders of magnitude) than the Monte Carlo MEI risk estimates, showing that using default maximum values results in overestimated risks. In comparing the risk distributions of the Monte Carlo MEI with the Monte Carlo nominal population, one can conclude that the existence of a MEI in the nominal population is highly unlikely. However, by regulating at a higher percentile risk value of the nominal population, a small percentage of the MEI population may be protected. Nonetheless, it is important to consider the MEI in the decision‐making process.

Carcinogenic Risk Associated with Radon-Enriched Well Water

A comparison has been made between radon in drinking water and the incidence of cancer using a set of home occupants in Virginia and Maryland. In a subset of people who drink radon-free but chlorinated drinking water from a reservoir, about 3% develop some type of cancer. In a subset of people who drink low-radon water from private water wells, about 3% develop cancer. In a subset who drink high-radon well water, about 6% develop cancer. A comparison with Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates of cancer related to airborne radon indicates that for the general population, the incidence of radon-related cancer from drinking water is similar to the incidence of cancer from inhaled radon. For the 10% of the population that consumes well water and, in particular, for the 5% of the population that consumes high-radon well water, the drinking water carries a considerably higher cancer risk than inhaling airborne radon.

Toward a more realistic appraisal of the lung cancer risk from radon: the effects of residential mobility.

A consideration of the effects of residential mobility produces much more realistic estimates of typical individuals' radon exposures and mortality risks than those of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). A model linking residential mobility, the distribution of radon in US homes, and lung cancer risk is used to simulate lifetime radon exposure, with and without mitigation of high-radon homes, for typical mobile individuals. Radon-related lung cancer mortality risks are then estimated for smokers and never-smokers. Most individuals residing in high-radon homes have equivalent lifelong radon exposures well below those they are currently experiencing. Consequently, actual lung cancer risks are generally well below those implied in the EPA's radon risk charts. For most people who mitigate high-radon homes, risk reduction is modest. Radon may indeed be responsible for as large a population risk of lung cancer as the EPA estimates. However, caution must be used in interpreting the EPA's risk assessment for individuals; in many cases, mitigation will have little effect on residents' health risks.

Engineering Properties of Tire/Soil Mixtures as a Lightweight Fill Material

Abstract The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) estimates that over 279 million discarded tires are being added annually to the already existing stockpile of two billion tires. Current disposal and stacking methods of waste tires are not acceptable due to the possibility of fire and health hazards. Several states and the federal government have issued legislation that encourages or mandates the recycling of discarded tires. One application where shredded tires can be used is as a lightweight fill material behind retaining walls or in highway embankments over weak or compressible soils. This paper presents the engineering properties of shredded tires, Ottawa sand, and a mixture of 50% Ottawa sand and 50% shredded tires by volume (70% Ottawa sand and 30% shredded tires by weight). The maximum size of the tire chips used was 4.75 mm. Gradation, specific gravity, void ratio, density, permeability, and consolidated-drained (CD) triaxial tests were performed as part of the testing program. Although the data obtained were limited to the above three mixes, the results indicate that the use of shredded tires/Ottawa sand mixes as a lightweight fill material is very promising. However, long-term impact of leachates from tires on groundwater quality should be investigated.

A Reflexive Model of Environmental Regulation

Although contemporary methods of environmental regulation have registered some significant accomplishments, the current system of environmental law is not working well enough. First the good news: Since the first Earth Day in 1970, smog has decreased in the United States by thirty percent. The number of lakes and rivers safe for fishing and swimming has increased by one-third. Recycling has begun to reduce levels of municipal waste. Ocean dumping has been curtailed. Forests have begun to expand. One success story is the virtual elimination of airborne lead in the United States. Another is the rapid phase-out of ozone-layer depleting chemicals worldwide. Nevertheless, prominent commentators of diverse political persuasions agree in an assessment that conventional models of environmental law have “failed.” Many environmental problems remain unsolved: species extinction, global desertification and deforestation, possible global climate change, and continuing severe air and water pollution in urban areas and poor countries. What is more, successful environmental protection has come only at enormous economic cost. By the year 2000, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates that the United States will spend approximately two percent of its gross national product on environmental pollution control. Academic economists have pointed out the nonsensical inefficiency of many environmental regulations, but usually to no avail.

Modeling the Potential Impacts of Different Radon Policies for the U.S. Housing Stock

According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other public health agencies in the United States, radon may be the leading cause (along with passive smoking) of lung cancer deaths among nonsmokers. Radon is estimated to be the second leading cause of lung cancer death in smokers behind smoking-related lung cancer. EPA estimates that 7,000 to 30,000 lung cancer deaths each year are due to radon exposure. (It is implied that radon-related lung cancer deaths can be prevented by reducing radon levels below EPA's guideline levels.) Current EPA radon policy is based on a strategy of education, the transfer of testing and remediation technologies to the public and private sectors, and recently proposed radon-resistant construction standards for new homes. This paper models the effectiveness of current, proposed, and alternative policies for reducing radon risks in U.S. residential construction. The results of our analysis suggest that EPA's projections of 2,200 “lives saved annually” as a result of its current action level of 4 pCi/l will not be achieved with its current policy in the near future. Overall, the response of radon-related mortality to most policy options is delayed and flat due in pan to the large number of houses with low radon levels and the long latency period between radon exposure and the development of cancer. The modeling results suggest that more aggressive smoking reduction programs may yield greater benefits in overall lung cancer mortality (but not reduced radon exposure) than most radon-related policies.