A Reflexive Model of Environmental Regulation

Natural gas is lauded as a cleaner-burning fuel than either coal or oil, but getting the fuel out of the ground can be a dirty process, especially given the widespread adoption of the technology known as hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”). Concerns about toxic air emissions from previously unregulated fracking sites led to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announcement on 18 April 2012 of new and updated air pollution regulations for these facilities and certain other elements of oil and natural gas production and transmission.1 Compliance with the new regulations is expected to result in major reductions in emissions of methane and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), particularly from new fracked natural gas wells. The rules were a hot topic nationally, drawing more than 156,000 comments after the proposed version was released in mid-2011. Under the final rules, companies have until January 2015 to fully phase in the control measures needed; by comparison, the initial proposal called for a 60-day phase-in for many major requirements. The EPA says about half of all new wells already use the equipment needed to capture the targeted emissions.2 A hydraulic fracturing natural gas drilling rig on the eastern Colorado plains. In 2009 there were more than 38,000 natural gas wells in the state. Many environmental groups consider the new regulations an improvement over the existing situation, but they tend to be disappointed much more wasn’t done. “This is quite a milestone,” says Jeremy Nichols, Climate and Energy Program director for the advocacy group WildEarth Guardians, one of two groups that filed suit against the EPA in 2009 to force action on the issue. “But is the work done? No, of course not. It’s a floor to build on, providing a minimal level of protection.” The oil and natural gas industry has its own concerns about the new rules but has indicated it can work with them. In a press release issued the day the rules were announced, Howard Feldman, director of regulatory and scientific affairs for the American Petroleum Institute, said, “EPA has made some improvements in the rules that allow our companies to continue reducing emissions while producing the oil and natural gas our country needs.”3

For decades, efforts to slow global warming have mostly aimed to limit heat-trapping emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). Now scientists are pointing to a different class of warming agents they say also must be targeted to keep global temperatures in check. Dubbed “short-lived climate forcings” (SLCFs), these other emissions—namely, black carbon particles, methane, hydrofluorocarbons, and tropospheric ozone—are even more powerful than CO2 in terms of their warming potential. But they persist in the atmosphere for much shorter durations than CO2, which can linger airborne for hundreds to thousands of years.1 Steve Seidel, vice president for policy analysis at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, says the recent emphasis on SLCFs represents new policy thinking on climate change. “We thought the Kyoto Protocol and its follow-on agreements would get us to where we need to be, but that’s not working out the way we hoped it would,” he says. “So, we’re broadening the discussion and opening up new pathways for going forward.” Given the enormity of human emissions, many climate scientists believe CO2 will one day become the dominant force behind climate change. But for now, CO2 and the SLCFs are nearly on par in terms of their climate changing effects, according to Veerabhadran Ramanathan, a professor at The Scripps Institute of Oceanography. In a report published in February 2011, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) called attention to SLCFs, claiming their emissions must be cut together with CO2 in order to prevent global temperatures from crossing a dangerous threshold.2 Doing that would offer health benefits too, UNEP stated, because SLFCs are also toxic air pollutants. Particulate emissions from diesel exhaust—a major source of black carbon—have been linked to lung and heart disease as well as cancer.3 But where it would take a transformation of the energy sector (at a cost of trillions of dollars over multiple decades1) to drop CO2 emissions enough to influence the climate, cutting SLCFs to achieve a similar goal could be achieved with current technologies under policy frameworks that are already in place, such as clean air regulations, according to Seidel.

A few times a year, volunteers fan out along the causeway that links the South Carolina mainland with the seashore community of Folly Beach to clean up plastic bottles, straws, bags, and other debris from along the road and the salt marsh. Some of this debris has come from cities miles away. On windy days, litter is often blown off city streets into waterways. During rainstorms, debris floats into drains that empty into rivers. Other trash probably came from places closer to home. “I see bags and other plastic flying off the beds of pickup trucks going down the causeway,” says Marty Morganello, who organizes the cleanups for the Charleston-area chapter of the nonprofit Surfrider Foundation. “I see them coming out the open windows of cars and out the backs of garbage trucks and even recycling trucks. This material is lightweight, and if you don’t secure it, it will fly away.” By one estimate, the volume of plastic debris going into the world’s oceans could more than double by 2025, assuming current trends in coastal development and plastics use. Some countries have begun identifying ways to improve management of plastic ... Beach cleanups yield enormous amounts of trash, with plastic items a major constituent.1 Although the human health impacts of this marine plastic pollution remain poorly characterized, it is widely seen as an emerging problem that deserves much more research attention.2 Likewise, there is a growing urgency among industry, government, nongovernmental organizations, and environmental groups to develop tools and policies to track, capture, and recycle plastic waste before it reaches the ocean.

Brain Fog: Does Air Pollution Make Us Less Productive?

When George Orwell encountered ideas of a technological utopia sixty-five years ago, he acted the grumpy middle-aged man: Reading recently a batch of rather shallowly optimistic “progressive” books, I was struck by the automatic way in which people go on repeating certain phrases which were fashionable before 1914. Two great favourites are “the abolition of distance” and “the disappearance of frontiers”. I do not know how often I have met with the statements that “the aeroplane and the radio have abolished distance” and “all parts of the world are now interdependent” (1944).

Compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) are about 75% more energy efficient than incandescent light bulbs and last 10 times longer, and thus have quickly become a modern-day environmental icon. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates that about 290 million CFLs were sold in 2007. But CFLs do have one dim spot on their otherwise bright green image: the mercury that makes the bulbs’ inner phosphor coating fluoresce and produce light. A new study from a group of researchers at Brown University characterizes for the first time how elemental mercury vapor escapes from broken CFLs and offers a real-world solution for capturing escaping mercury. According to a June 2008 fact sheet issued by the EPA Energy Star program, the use of CFLs results in a net reduction in mercury entering the environment because their lower energy draw means less mercury-emitting coal needs to be burned. The EPA estimates that using a 13-W CFL saves 376 kWh over its 8,000-hour lifespan, preventing 4.5 mg of mercury from being emitted by a coal-burning power plant. Each small, curly tube contains about 3–5 mg of mercury—significantly less than the 500 mg in older thermometers, but enough that environmental and human health concerns remain. The research group headed by Robert Hurt, director of the Institute for Molecular and Nanoscale Innovation, broke a series of new and used CFLs to measure the release of mercury vapor into the air. In the hour immediately after each breakage, the team recorded mercury gas concentrations near the bulb shards between 200–800 μg/m3. For comparison, the average 8-hour occupational exposure limit allowed by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration is 100 μg/m3. Within 4 days a new 13-W CFL released about 30% of its mercury, with the remainder appearing to remain trapped in the bulb debris; picking up the glass shards after breakage reduced mercury release by 67%. Used bulbs followed similar patterns but with lower rates. The study, which was funded by the NIEHS Superfund Basic Research Program, was reported in the 1 August 2008 issue of Environmental Science & Technology. “The amount of mercury gas coming off [broken CFLs] is over a milligram over a few days. If you put that milligram into a poorly ventilated room, the concentration can be over the recommended limit for children [of 0.2 μg/m3],” says Hurt. “The overall risk is low, but it’s not zero risk, and there is definitely an opportunity to do better.” This kind of information could help regulators provide better information on how to handle broken CFLs. In 2007 the Maine Department of Environmental Protection performed one of the only other studies evaluating mercury exposure from broken CFLs. The EPA’s current recommendation to leave the room for at least 15 minutes immediately after breaking a CFL derives from that study. The EPA also recommends that broken CFL pieces be scooped up and placed in a plastic bag. However, Hurt’s research suggests that the peak for escaping mercury vapor lasts a few hours. The group also found that plastic bags leaked mercury vapor. “This new information may allow for modeling of airborne mercury concentrations following breakage, thus providing the capability to more fully assess the effectiveness of cleanup,” says Roxanne Smith, a press officer for the EPA. Hurt’s group also tested 28 sorbents for their ability to capture the released mercury gas. Because a sorbent’s surface area can affect how well it captures mercury, the team chose to test nanoscale formulations, which provide large surface area. One type of nanoselenium was found to be the most effective, removing 99% of the mercury vapor when impregnated in a cloth that was draped over a broken CFL or sprinkled over the breakage as a powder. When the mercury vapor reacted with nanoselenium, it formed mercury selenides, which are insoluble and metabolically inactive, according to a report in the November 2004 issue of the Seychelles Medical and Dental Journal. These compounds are also believed to be stable under landfill conditions (with the caveat that the environmental disposition and health effects of nanomaterials are still largely unknown). There are CFL recycling programs across the country at major retailers such as The Home Depot, but the Association of Lighting and Mercury Recyclers estimates that 98% of CFLs currently end up in landfills. Hurt’s group has therefore developed prototype packaging and disposal bags that can act as a barrier to prevent mercury from escaping as well as neutralize it. “Development of technology or material to more effectively clean up or capture mercury vapor may potentially minimize worker exposures during transport and disposal and, if readily available to consumers, may potentially minimize future inhalation exposures in residential settings,” says Smith.

Libby: the long legacy of a public health disaster

The Emperor's Old Clothes: An Inconvenient Truth About Currently Accepted Vapor Intrusion Assessment Methods

Your fathers’ mistakes: Critiques of GDP and the search for an alternative

The oil pollution prevention program of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) addresses a large regulated community—the owners and operators of several hundred thousand nontransportation-related facilities. Regulated oil facilities generally are thought of as refineries, terminals, production field tanks, fuel oil dealers, or gasoline service stations. Some studies of the nationwide petroleum storage capacity do not even consider tanks owned by petroleum consumers, while others recognize that end users constitute a significant part of the nation's oil storage. The storage capacity of fixed petroleum tankage in the tertiary segment (agricultural, commercial, electric utility, industrial, military/government, residential, and transportation sectors) is estimated to comprise more than 20 % of the total U.S. storage capacity. EPA estimates that more than one-half of the facilities required to prepare Spill Prevention Control and Countermeasure (SPCC) plans are such end users. The focus of oil pollution prevention, of course, is preventing spills. Several years ago, an American Petroleum Institute report on aboveground storage tank incidents stated that more than 25% of large petroleum releases in the United States were from tanks controlled by companies outside the petroleum industry. Recent data on large spills (10,000 gallons or more) show similar patterns. Of course, most nontransportation-related spills are from storage tanks or facilities in the petroleum industry (production wells, refineries, terminals, tank farms, and fuel oil dealers). More than 40%, however, are from electric utilities, manufacturing plants, military bases, airports, railroad yards, and other end user facilities. Smaller spills come from a variety of facility types. It is important for EPA and other groups to recognize the end user community and the threat of spills from end user facilities, and to begin to work with the owners and operators of end user facilities to educate them about EPA's oil pollution prevention regulation.

According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other public health agencies in the United States, radon may be the leading cause (along with passive smoking) of lung cancer deaths among nonsmokers. Radon is estimated to be the second leading cause of lung cancer death in smokers behind smoking-related lung cancer. EPA estimates that 7,000 to 30,000 lung cancer deaths each year are due to radon exposure. (It is implied that radon-related lung cancer deaths can be prevented by reducing radon levels below EPA's guideline levels.) Current EPA radon policy is based on a strategy of education, the transfer of testing and remediation technologies to the public and private sectors, and recently proposed radon-resistant construction standards for new homes. This paper models the effectiveness of current, proposed, and alternative policies for reducing radon risks in U.S. residential construction. The results of our analysis suggest that EPA's projections of 2,200 “lives saved annually” as a result of its current action level of 4 pCi/l will not be achieved with its current policy in the near future. Overall, the response of radon-related mortality to most policy options is delayed and flat due in pan to the large number of houses with low radon levels and the long latency period between radon exposure and the development of cancer. The modeling results suggest that more aggressive smoking reduction programs may yield greater benefits in overall lung cancer mortality (but not reduced radon exposure) than most radon-related policies.

Nurses play essential roles in reducing health problems due to climate change

Methane—a short-lived and potent greenhouse gas—presents a unique challenge: it is emitted from a large number of highly distributed and diffuse sources. In this regard, the United States’ Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has recommended periodic leak detection and repair surveys at oil and gas facilities using optical gas imaging technology. This regulation requires an operator to fix all detected leaks within a set time period. Whether such ‘find-all-fix-all’ policies are effective depends on significant uncertainties in the character of emissions. In this work, we systematically analyze the effect of facility-related and mitigation-related uncertainties on regulation effectiveness. Drawing from multiple publicly-available datasets, we find that: (1) highly-skewed leak-size distributions strongly influence emissions reduction potential; (2) variations in emissions estimates across facilities leads to large variability in mitigation effectiveness; (3) emissions reductions from optical gas imaging-based leak detection programs can range from 15% to over 70%; and (4) while implementation costs are uniformly lower than EPA estimates, benefits from saved gas are highly variable. Combining empirical evidence with model results, we propose four policy options for effective methane mitigation: performance-oriented targets for accelerated emission reductions, flexible policy mechanisms to account for regional variation, technology-agnostic regulations to encourage adoption of the most cost-effective measures, and coordination with other greenhouse gas mitigation policies to reduce unintended spillover effects.

Last year, the US Court of Appeals (D.C. Circuit) upheld a series of findings, interpretations, and regulations that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) had issued as its first steps to limit the emissions of greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. First, EPA had made a finding that emissions of greenhouse gases from motor vehicles cause or contribute to an endangerment to the public health or welfare. Second, to address this endangerment, EPA together with the Department of Transportation, promulgated greenhouse gas emission and fuel efficiency standards for cars and light trucks for model years 2012 through 2016. EPA estimates that these standards will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 960 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent over the life of these model years. Third, EPA formally reaffirmed its interpretation that the motor vehicle emission standards - by regulating greenhouse gases under the Act - would trigger permitting requirements for greenhouse gas emissions from stationary facilities. These permitting requirements include the installation of best available control technology to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from new or modified facilities. Fourth, EPA issued regulations phasing in these permitting requirements over several years. Rejecting a multitude of challenges, the court upheld all these actions, thus paving the way for EPA to significantly regulate and limit greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles and stationary facilities. On 26 June 2012, the prominent US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit handed the Barak Obama Administration a decisive, quadruple victory in its efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions through regulations. The court upheld the finding of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that greenhouse gas emissions are reasonably anticipated to endanger public health and welfare. The court also upheld EPA regulations and interpretations that will require reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles and large stationary sources. The court reaffirmed its decision, denying a petition for rehearing, on 20 December 2012. The decision paves the way for significant mandatory reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in the US.

Knowlton et al. (2004) argued that increasing temperatures associated with climate change will increase urban ozone and related health risks. They have disregarded important factors in reaching this conclusion. During the last 20 years, nationwide exceedances of the federal 1-hr ozone standard declined 90%, and the June–August average of daily 1-hr peak ozone levels declined 10% (Schwartz et al., in press), presumably with ensuing declines in ozone-related mortality. Ozone declined despite a roughly 1°C increase in urban temperatures during the last few decades (Karl et al. 1988). Knowlton et al. (2004) did not explain why we should expect the future to be the opposite of the past. Knowlton et al. (2004) used ozone-precursor [nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compound (VOC)] emissions estimates for 1996 to predict ozone levels in the 2050s. However, even current emissions are substantially lower than 1996 levels, while, as shown below, already-adopted U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requirements will eliminate most remaining ozone-precursor emissions, even after accounting for growth. The U.S. EPA (2003) estimated that between 1996 and 2001, total emissions of NOx and VOC declined, 10 and 14%, respectively. [The U.S. EPA updated its trend estimates in November 2004 (U.S. EPA 2004a) and now believes the decline was even steeper, although these new estimates were obviously not available to Knowlton et al.] During 2003 and 2004, the U.S. EPA capped total NOx from coal-fired power plants and industrial boilers at 60% below 2000 levels (U.S. EPA 1998a, 2004b). A range of emissions data show the average automobile’s NOx emissions rate declined 4–9% per year between 1995 and 2001, with greater improvements for vehicles up to 4 years old (Pokharel et al. 2003; Schwartz 2003). Total driving is increasing < 2% per year, resulting in large net NOx declines (Texas Transportation Institute 2004). Data on heavy-duty diesel vehicles are sparse, but there is every reason to believe that diesel NOx has also declined. The U.S. EPA has tightened NOx standards for new on- and off-road diesels several times over the last 15 years, and also recently required additional NOx reductions from in-use 1993–1998 model year trucks (U.S. EPA 2002a, 2004c, 2004d). VOCs have declined far more than NOx and far more than U.S. EPA estimates. The U.S. EPA’s official VOC inventory understates significantly the gasoline-vehicle contribution to total VOCs (Watson et al. 2001). Real-world data show the average automobile’s VOC emission rate is declining 11–15% per year, again much more rapidly than driving is increasing, and with a more rapid decline for recent models (Pokharel et al. 2003; Schwartz 2003). The U.S. EPA also recently implemented VOC reductions for other sources (U.S. EPA 1998b, 2002b, 2004e). Overall, between 1996 and 2004, anthropogenic NOx and VOC emissions likely declined, respectively, at least 25 and 50%—declines overlooked by Knowlton et al. (2004). Emission declines will continue. For example, a vehicle fleet meeting the U.S. EPA’s “Tier 2” automobile standards, implemented in 2004, on-road diesel standards set for 2007, and off-road diesel standards set for 2010, will emit 90% less NOx and VOCs per mile over their lifetime than the current average vehicle, resulting in huge emissions declines, even with predicted increases in driving (Schwartz 2003; U.S. EPA 2000a, 2000b, 2004c). Knowlton et al. (2004) assume ozone-precursor emissions several times greater than any plausible future scenario. Their projections of future ozone and related health impacts are therefore unrealistically high. Heat-related mortality has also declined, by 70% nationwide since the 1960s, despite warming urban climates, with the hottest and most humid cities achieving the greatest risk reductions (Davis et al. 2003). These health improvements resulted from a range of adaptive technologies and processes, including increased air conditioning, changes in building design, physiologic adaptations, and improved emergency medicine. Nevertheless, because of a single major blackout on a warm day in 2003, Knowlton et al. (2004) maintain that “air conditioning may not really be an appropriate ‘fix’ for adapting to climate change.” Air conditioning is clearly a vital adaptive technology that has saved countless lives. One study reported a relative risk of death on hot days of 1.7 for people with no air conditioning compared to those with central air (Rogot et al. 1992). The nondiscriminating reader might be impressed by the downscaling of a general circulation model using a regional mesoscale model to predict localized differences in future air-pollution related mortality, but the complexity of the models is irrelevant in the face of Knowlton et al.’s failure to temper their theoretical exercise with real-world data. Had Knowlton et al. (2004) accounted for observed historical health and pollution trends and future emission-reduction requirements, they would have arrived at a markedly different story.