Environmental Impact Of Aviation Research Articles

Toward Conflict Resolution with Deep Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Safety in air traffic management at the tactical level is ensured by human controllers. Automatic detection and resolution tools are one way to assist controllers in their tasks. However, the majority of existing methods do not account for factors that can affect the quality and efficiency of resolutions. Furthermore, future challenges such as sustainability and the environmental impact of aviation must be tackled. In this work, we propose an innovative approach to pairwise conflict resolution, by modeling it as a multi-agent reinforcement learning to improve the quality of resolutions based on a combination of several factors. We use multi-agent deep deterministic policy gradient to generate resolution maneuvers. We propose a reward function that besides solving the conflicts attempts to optimize the resolutions in terms of time, fuel consumption, and airspace complexity. The models are evaluated on real traffic, with a data augmentation technique utilized to increase the variance of conflict geometries. We achieve promising results with a resolution rate of 93%, without the agents having any previous knowledge of the dynamics of the environment. Furthermore, the agents seem to be able to learn some desirable behaviors such as preferring small heading changes to solve conflicts in one time step. Nevertheless, the nonstationarity of the environment makes the learning procedure nontrivial. We argue ways that tangible qualities such as resolution rate and intangible qualities such as resolution acceptability and explainability can be improved.

Case Study for Testing the Validity of NOx-Ozone Algorithmic Climate Change Functions for Optimising Flight Trajectories

One possibility to reduce the climate impact of aviation is the avoidance of climate-sensitive regions, which is synonymous with climate-optimised flight planning. Those regions can be identified by algorithmic Climate Change Functions (aCCFs) for nitrogen oxides (NOx), water vapour (H2O) as well as contrail cirrus, which provide a measure of climate effects associated with corresponding emissions. In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of reducing the aviation-induced climate impact via ozone (O3) formation (resulting from NOx emissions), when solely using O3 aCCFs for the aircraft trajectory optimisation strategy. The effectiveness of such a strategy and the associated potential mitigation of climate effects is explored by using the chemistry–climate model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy) with various submodels. A summer and winter day, characterised by a large spatial variability of the O3 aCCFs, are selected. A one-day air traffic simulation is performed in the European airspace on those selected days to obtain both cost-optimised and climate-optimised aircraft trajectories, which more specifically minimised a NOx-induced climate effect of O3 (O3 aCCFs). The air traffic is laterally and vertically re-routed separately to enable an evaluation of the influences of the horizontal and vertical pattern of O3 aCCFs. The resulting aviation NOx emissions are then released in an atmospheric chemistry–climate simulation to simulate the contribution of these NOx emissions to atmospheric O3 and the resulting O3 change. Within this study, we use O3-RF as a proxy for climate impact. The results confirm that the climate-optimised flights lead to lower O3-RF compared to the cost-optimised flights, although the aCCFs cannot reproduce all aspects of the significant impact of the synoptic situation on the transport of emitted NOx. Overall, the climate impact is higher for the selected summer day than for the selected winter day. Lateral re-routing shows a greater potential to reduce climate impact compared to vertical re-routing for the chosen flight altitude. We find that while applying the O3 aCCFs in trajectory optimisation can reduce the climate impact, there are certain discrepancies in the prediction of O3 impact from aviation NOx emissions, as seen for the summer day. Although the O3 aCCFs concept is a rough simplification in estimating the climate impact of a local NOx emission, it enables a reasonable first estimate. Further research is required to better describe the O3 aCCFs allowing an improved estimate in the Average Temperature Response (ATR) of O3 from aviation NOx emissions. A general improvement in the scientific understanding of non-CO2 aviation effects could make climate-optimised flight planning practically feasible.

Climate assessment of single flights: Deduction of route specific equivalent CO2 emissions

Climate impact of anthropogenic activities is more and more of public concern. But while CO2 emissions are accounted in emissions trading and mitigation plans, emissions of non-CO2 components contributing to climate change receive much less attention. One of the anthropogenic emission sectors, where non-CO2 effects play an important part, is aviation. Hence, for a quantitative estimate of total aviation climate impact, assessments need to comprise both CO2 and non-CO2 effects (e.g., water vapor, nitrogen dioxide, and contrails), instead of calculating and providing only CO2 impacts. However, while a calculation of CO2 effects relies directly on fuel consumption, for non-CO2 effects detailed information on aircraft trajectory, engine emissions, and ambient atmospheric conditions are required. As often such comprehensive information is not available for all aircraft movements, a simplified calculation method is required to calculate non-CO2 impacts. In our study, we introduce a simple calculation method which allows quantifying climate assessment relying on mission parameters, involving distance and geographic flight region. We present a systematic analysis of simulated climate impact from more than 1000 city pairs with an Airbus A330-200 aircraft depending on the flight distance and flight region to derive simplified but still realistic representation of the non-CO2 climate effects. These new formulas much better represent the climate impact of non-CO2 effects compared to a constant CO2 multiplier. The mean square error decrease from 1.18 for a constant factor down to 0.24 for distance dependent factors and can be reduced even further to 0.19 for a distance and latitude dependent factor.

Concept of climate-charged airspaces: a potential policy instrument for internalizing aviation's climate impact of non-CO2 effects

ABSTRACT Approximately 50–75% of aviation's climate impact is caused by non-CO2 effects, like the production of ozone and the formation of contrail cirrus clouds, which can be effectively prevented by re-routing flights around highly climate-sensitive areas. Here, we discuss options how to incentivize re-routing approaches and apply multicriteria trajectory optimizations to demonstrate the feasibility of the concept of climate-charged airspaces (CCAs). We show that although climate-optimized re-routing results in slightly longer flight times, increased fuel consumption and higher operating costs, it is more climate-friendly compared to a cost-optimized routing. In accordance to other studies, we find that the averaged temperature response over 100 years (ATR) of a single flight can be reduced by up to 40%. However, if mitigation efforts are associated with a direct increase in costs, there is a need for climate policies. To address the lack of incentivizing airlines to internalize their climate costs, this study focuses on the CCA concept, which imposes a climate charge on airlines when operating in highly climate-sensitive areas. If CCAs are (partly) bypassed, both climate impact and operating costs of a flight can be reduced: a more climate-friendly routing becomes economically attractive. For an exemplary North-Atlantic network, CCAs create a financial incentive for climate mitigation, achieving on average more than 90% of the climate impact reduction potential of climate-optimized trajectories (theoretical maximum, benchmark). Key policy insights Existing climate policies for aviation do not address non- effects, which are very sensitive to the location and the timing of the emission. By imposing a temporary climate charge for airlines that operate in highly climate-sensitive regions, the trade-off between economic viability and environmental compatibility could be resolved: Climate impact mitigation of non- effects coincides with cutting costs. To ensure easy planning and verification, climate charges are calculated analogously to en-route and terminal charges. For climate mitigation it is therefore neither necessary to monitor emissions ( , etc.) nor to integrate complex non- effects into flight planning procedures of airlines. Its implementation is feasible and effective.

Evaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris agreement including COVID-19 effects

Aviation is an important contributor to the global economy, satisfying society’s mobility needs. It contributes to climate change through CO2 and non-CO2 effects, including contrail-cirrus and ozone formation. There is currently significant interest in policies, regulations and research aiming to reduce aviation’s climate impact. Here we model the effect of these measures on global warming and perform a bottom-up analysis of potential technical improvements, challenging the assumptions of the targets for the sector with a number of scenarios up to 2100. We show that although the emissions targets for aviation are in line with the overall goals of the Paris Agreement, there is a high likelihood that the climate impact of aviation will not meet these goals. Our assessment includes feasible technological advancements and the availability of sustainable aviation fuels. This conclusion is robust for several COVID-19 recovery scenarios, including changes in travel behaviour.

Process-oriented analysis of aircraft soot-cirrus interactions constrains the climate impact of aviation

Fully accounting for the climate impact of aviation requires a process-level understanding of the impact of aircraft soot particle emissions on the formation of ice clouds. Assessing this impact with the help of global climate models remains elusive and direct observations are lacking. Here we use a high-resolution cirrus column model to investigate how aircraft-emitted soot particles, released after ice crystals sublimate at the end of the lifetime of contrails and contrail cirrus, perturb the formation of cirrus. By allying cloud simulations with a measurement-based description of soot-induced ice formation, we find that only a small fraction (<1%) of the soot particles succeeds in forming cloud ice alongside homogeneous freezing of liquid aerosol droplets. Thus, soot-perturbed and homogeneously-formed cirrus fundamentally do not differ in optical depth. Our results imply that climate model estimates of global radiative forcing from interactions between aircraft soot and large-scale cirrus may be overestimates. The improved scientific understanding reported here provides a process-based underpinning for improved climate model parametrizations and targeted field observations.

Sustainable aviation fuels and imminent technologies - CO2 emissions evolution towards 2050

Nowadays, concerns about rising emissions and climate change have raised the issue of decarbonization. Several approaches have been promoted in the aeronautical sector to reduce CO2 emissions. The present work provides quantitative data to support decision-making for the first pillar of International Air Transport Association (IATA) strategy to mitigate aviation climate impact. This strategy comprises improving aircraft technology and deploying sustainable low-carbon fuels. The most promising technologies for an imminent application are new engine architecture and natural laminar flow. On the other hand, efforts have been put to produce Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) reaching the point where some methods for the production of alternative jet fuel are already approved by ASTM. Therefore, the present work quantifies the future reduction of CO2 emissions by 2050 in the aeronautical sector with these strategies. For this purpose, two methodologies are used, a numerical model to calculate fuel consumption and CO2 emissions from the global air transport fleet. For the SAF analysis, it is developed an approach that considers, besides the SAF production, the feedstocks, and the production pathway. Two cases and three scenarios represent the technological improvements and quantify the effects of new aircraft concepts and technologies on future CO2 emissions. For the SAF analysis, four scenarios and two conditions assess the different production capacities and feedstocks. The combined effect of technologies with SAF is considered verifying if the goals proposed by IATA, carbon-neutral growth from 2020, and a reduction of 50% in net emissions by 2050 compared to 2005 levels are achieved. The assessment results reveal that the goals cannot be met only with the combined action of imminent aircraft technologies and the use of alternative fuels. Carbon-neutral growth is only reached when it is considered the combined effect of technologies with the scenario where the amount of SAF introduced is higher (an increase of 15% annually between 2030 and 2050). However, this carbon-neutral growth is only possible to start in 2040. Imminent aircraft technologies can reduce up to 15% in CO2 emissions when compared to the Business as Usual scenario. The different feedstocks used in each process to produce SAF do not have a considerable impact on reducing CO2 emissions, the maximum difference registered between each condition was 1.47%.

Influence of weather situation on non-CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; aviation climate effects: the REACT4C climate change functions

Abstract. Emissions of aviation include CO2, H2O, NOx, sulfur oxides, and soot. Many studies have investigated the annual mean climate impact of aviation emissions. While CO2 has a long atmospheric residence time and is almost uniformly distributed in the atmosphere, non-CO2 gases and particles and their products have short atmospheric residence times and are heterogeneously distributed. The climate impact of non-CO2 aviation emissions is known to vary with different meteorological background situations. The aim of this study is to systematically investigate the influence of characteristic weather situations on aviation climate effects over the North Atlantic region, to identify the most sensitive areas, and to potentially detect systematic weather-related similarities. If aircraft were re-routed to avoid climate-sensitive regions, the overall aviation climate impact might be reduced. Hence, the sensitivity of the atmosphere to local emissions provides a basis for the assessment of weather-related, climate-optimized flight trajectory planning. To determine the climate change contribution of an individual emission as a function of location, time, and weather situation, the radiative impact of local emissions of NOx and H2O to changes in O3, CH4, H2O and contrail cirrus was computed by means of the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry model. From this, 4-dimensional climate change functions (CCFs) were derived. Typical weather situations in the North Atlantic region were considered for winter and summer. Weather-related differences in O3, CH4, H2O, and contrail cirrus CCFs were investigated. The following characteristics were identified: enhanced climate impact of contrail cirrus was detected for emissions in areas with large-scale lifting, whereas low climate impact of contrail cirrus was found in the area of the jet stream. Northwards of 60∘ N, contrails usually cause climate warming in winter, independent of the weather situation. NOx emissions cause a high positive climate impact if released in the area of the jet stream or in high-pressure ridges, which induces a south- and downward transport of the emitted species, whereas NOx emissions at, or transported towards, high latitudes cause low or even negative climate impact. Independent of the weather situation, total NOx effects show a minimum at ∼250 hPa, increasing towards higher and lower altitudes, with generally higher positive impact in summer than in winter. H2O emissions induce a high climate impact when released in regions with lower tropopause height, whereas low climate impact occurs for emissions in areas with higher tropopause height. H2O CCFs generally increase with height and are larger in winter than in summer. The CCFs of all individual species can be combined, facilitating the assessment of total climate impact of aircraft trajectories considering CO2 and spatially and temporally varying non-CO2 effects. Furthermore, they allow for the optimization of aircraft trajectories with reduced overall climate impact. This also facilitates a fair evaluation of trade-offs between individual species. In most regions, NOx and contrail cirrus dominate the sensitivity to local aviation emissions. The findings of this study recommend considering weather-related differences for flight trajectory optimization in favour of reducing total climate impact.

Airborne Measurements of Contrail Ice Properties—Dependence on Temperature and Humidity

AbstractThe largest share in the climate impact of aviation results from contrail cirrus clouds. Here, the dependence of microphysical contrail ice properties and extinction on temperature and humidity is investigated. Contrail measurements were performed at various altitudes during the 2018 ECLIF II/NDMAX campaign with the NASA DC‐8 chasing the DLR A320. Ice number concentrations and contrail extinction coefficients are largest at altitudes near 9.5 km, typical for short‐ and medium‐range air traffic. At higher altitudes near 11.5 km, low ambient water vapor concentrations lead to smaller contrail particle sizes and lower extinction coefficients. In addition, contrails were detected below 8.2 km near the Schmidt‐Appleman contrail formation threshold temperature. Here, only a small fraction (&lt;15%) of the emitted soot particles were activated into ice. Our observations enhance the understanding of contrail formation near the formation threshold and give a glimpse on the altitude dependence of climate‐relevant contrail properties.

Study of Power Devices for Use in Phase-Leg at Cryogenic Temperature

As air traffic has been increasing in recent years, the environmental impact of aviation is more obvious, forcing governments to impose stringent regulations on emissions. In order to meet these regulations, and reduce the carbon footprint, research has been directed towards the all-electric and hybrid aircraft, where the use of cryogenic HTS machines and cables has been proposed to reduce the overall size of the aircraft. With the cryogenic system already in place, research has been exploring the use of power electronics at lower temperatures in order to obtain systems with higher power densities and lower losses. In this paper several power semiconductor devices are tested at room and cryogenic temperature in order to evaluate their performance at lower temperature. One of the tested devices, a “CoolMOS” superjunction MOSFET, is used in a single voltage source phase-leg which is experimented with at room and cryogenic temperature to evaluate its efficiency as a primary indication of its usefulness in the All-Electric Aircraft.

Visual protest discourses on aviation and climate change

Various solutions have been suggested for the large climate impact of aviation, some of which would have far-reaching consequences for tourism. This study analyzes the discourses of climate protesters on this topic. Visual protest materials targeting aviation were photographed at three Swiss climate demonstrations in 2019 and analyzed using the Sociology of Knowledge Approach to Discourse. The protesters criticize air travel for its climate impact, assign responsibility to the travelling public, and promote solutions involving reduced air travel demand. They omit offsetting and technological solutions, thereby diverging from the discourses of the Swiss media and the aviation industry. The tourism industry should prepare for possible changes in travel patterns which might occur if this movement succeeds in promoting its views.

Towards Determining the Contrail Cirrus Efficacy

Contrail cirrus has been emphasized as the largest individual component of aircraft climate impact, yet respective assessments have been based mainly on conventional radiative forcing calculations. As demonstrated in previous research work, individual impact components can have different efficacies, i.e., their effectiveness to induce surface temperature changes may vary. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) has been proposed as a superior metric to compare individual impact contributions, as it may, to a considerable extent, include the effect of efficacy differences. Recent climate model simulations have provided a first estimate of contrail cirrus ERF, which turns out to be much smaller, by about 65%, than the conventional radiative forcing of contrail cirrus. The main reason for the reduction is that natural clouds exhibit a substantially lower radiative impact in the presence of contrail cirrus. Hence, the new result suggests a smaller role of contrail cirrus in the context of aviation climate impact (including proposed mitigation measures) than assumed so far. However, any conclusion in this respect should be drawn carefully as long as no direct simulations of the surface temperature response to contrail cirrus are available. Such simulations are needed in order to confirm the power of ERF for assessing contrail cirrus efficacy.

Mitigation of Non-CO2 Aviation’s Climate Impact by Changing Cruise Altitudes

Aviation is seeking for ways to reduce its climate impact caused by CO2 emissions and non-CO2 effects. Operational measures which change overall flight altitude have the potential to reduce climate impact of individual effects, comprising CO2 but in particular non-CO2 effects. We study the impact of changes of flight altitude, specifically aircraft flying 2000 feet higher and lower, with a set of global models comprising chemistry-transport, chemistry-climate and general circulation models integrating distinct aviation emission inventories representing such alternative flight altitudes, estimating changes in climate impact of aviation by quantifying radiative forcing and induced temperature change. We find in our sensitivity study that flying lower leads to a reduction of radiative forcing of non-CO2 effects together with slightly increased CO2 emissions and impacts, when cruise speed is not modified. Flying higher increases radiative forcing of non-CO2 effects by about 10%, together with a slight decrease of CO2 emissions and impacts. Overall, flying lower decreases aviation-induced temperature change by about 20%, as a decrease of non-CO2 impacts by about 30% dominates over slightly increasing CO2 impacts assuming a sustained emissions scenario. Those estimates are connected with a large but unquantified uncertainty. To improve the understanding of mechanisms controlling the aviation climate impact, we study the geographical distributions of aviation-induced modifications in the atmosphere, together with changes in global radiative forcing and suggest further efforts in order to reduce long standing uncertainties.

Analysis of Aircraft Routing Strategies for North Atlantic Flights by Using AirTraf 2.0

Climate-optimized routing is an operational measure to effectively reduce the climate impact of aviation with a slight increase in aircraft operating costs. This study examined variations in the flight characteristics among five aircraft routing strategies and discusses several characteristics of those routing strategies concerning typical weather conditions over the North Atlantic. The daily variability in the North Atlantic weather patterns was analyzed by using the European Center Hamburg general circulation model (ECHAM) and the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model in the specified dynamics mode from December 2008 to August 2018. All days of the ten complete winters and summers in the simulations were classified into five weather types for winter and into three types for summer. The obtained frequency for each of the weather types was in good agreement with the literature data; and then representative days for each weather type were selected. Moreover, a total of 103 North Atlantic flights of an Airbus A330 aircraft were simulated with five aircraft routing strategies for each representative day by using the EMAC model with the air traffic simulation submodel AirTraf. For every weather type, climate-optimized routing shows the lowest climate impact, at which a trade-off exists between the operating costs and the climate impact. Cost-optimized routing lies between the time- and fuel-optimized routings and achieves the lowest operating costs by taking the best compromise between flight time and fuel use. The aircraft routing for contrail avoidance shows the second lowest climate impact; however, this routing causes extra operating costs. Our methodology could be extended to statistical analysis based on long-term simulations to clarify the relationship between the aircraft routing characteristics and weather conditions.

Aero Engine Concepts Beyond 2030: Part 2—The Free-Piston Composite Cycle Engine

Abstract Recognizing the attention currently devoted to the environmental impact of aviation, this three-part publication series introduces two new aircraft propulsion concepts for the timeframe beyond 2030. This second part presents the free-piston composite cycle engine concept. It is composed of a gas turbine topped with a free-piston system. The latter is a self-powered gas generator in which the internal combustion process drives an integrated air compressor. Here, several free-piston engines replace the high-pressure core of the gas turbine. Through the ability to work at much higher temperatures and pressures, the overall system efficiency can be increased significantly, and fuel burn as well as CO2 emissions reduce. The proposed free-piston composite cycle engine design is described in detail, and the sources of thermodynamic benefits are stated. Concrete engineering solutions consider the implementation into an aircraft. The free-piston design enables lower weight and size compared to a crankshaft-bound piston engine, as no mechanical transmission and lubrication system is required. The absence of a crankshaft and connecting rods eliminates reactive forces, reduces mechanical losses, and allows higher mean piston velocities. Facilitated through air lubrication, higher cylinder temperatures are viable. The reduction of heat losses enables cooling of the piston-cylinder with core fluid. The use of a sequential combustion chamber can enhance operability and tailor the production of NOx in low-altitude operation. A discussion of emissions affecting the environment shows the potential to reduce the climate impact of aviation.

Assessing the Climate Impact of Formation Flights

An operational measure that is inspired by migrant birds aiming toward the mitigation of aviation climate impact is to fly in aerodynamic formation. When this operational measure is adapted to commercial aircraft it saves fuel and is, therefore, expected to reduce the climate impact of aviation. Besides the total emission amount, this mitigation option also changes the location of emissions, impacting the non-CO2 climate effects arising from NOx and H2O emissions and contrails. Here, we assess these non-CO2 climate impacts with a climate response model to assure a benefit for climate not only due to CO2 emission reductions, but also due to reduced non-CO2 effects. Therefore, the climate response model AirClim is used, which includes CO2 effects and also the impact of water vapor and contrail induced cloudiness as well as the impact of nitrogen dioxide emissions on the ozone and methane concentration. For this purpose, AirClim has been adopted to account for saturation effects occurring for formation flight. The results of the case studies show that the implementation of formation flights in the 50 most popular airports for the year 2017 display an average decrease of fuel consumption by 5%. The climate impact, in terms of average near surface temperature change, is estimated to be reduced in average by 24%, with values of individual formations between 13% and 33%.

The Contrail Mitigation Potential of Aircraft Formation Flight Derived from High-Resolution Simulations

Formation flight is one potential measure to increase the efficiency of aviation. Flying in the upwash region of an aircraft’s wake vortex field is aerodynamically advantageous. It saves fuel and concomitantly reduces the carbon foot print. However, CO2 emissions are only one contribution to the aviation climate impact among several others (contrails, emission of H2O and NOx). In this study, we employ an established large eddy simulation model with a fully coupled particle-based ice microphysics code and simulate the evolution of contrails that were produced behind formations of two aircraft. For a large set of atmospheric scenarios, these contrails are compared to contrails behind single aircraft. In general, contrails grow and spread by the uptake of atmospheric water vapour. When contrails are produced in close proximity (as in the formation scenario), they compete for the available water vapour and mutually inhibit their growth. The simulations demonstrate that the contrail ice mass and total extinction behind a two-aircraft formation are substantially smaller than for a corresponding case with two separate aircraft and contrails. Hence, this first study suggests that establishing formation flight may strongly reduce the contrail climate effect.

The impact of weather patterns and related transport processes on aviation's contribution to ozone and methane concentrations from NO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;&amp;lt;i&amp;gt;x&amp;lt;/i&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; emissions

Abstract. Aviation-attributed climate impact depends on a combination of composition changes in trace gases due to emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and non-CO2 species. Nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) emissions induce an increase in ozone (O3) and a depletion of methane (CH4), leading to a climate warming and a cooling, respectively. In contrast to CO2, non-CO2 contributions to the atmospheric composition are short lived and are thus characterised by a high spatial and temporal variability. In this study, we investigate the influence of weather patterns and their related transport processes on composition changes caused by aviation-attributed NOx emissions. This is achieved by using the atmospheric chemistry model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy). Representative weather situations were simulated in which unit NOx emissions are initialised in specific air parcels at typical flight altitudes over the North Atlantic flight sector. By explicitly calculating contributions to the O3 and CH4 concentrations induced by these emissions, interactions between trace gas composition changes and weather conditions along the trajectory of each air parcel are investigated. Previous studies showed a clear correlation between the prevailing weather situation at the time when the NOx emission occurs and the climate impact of the NOx emission. Here, we show that the aviation NOx contribution to ozone is characterised by the time and magnitude of its maximum and demonstrate that a high O3 maximum is only possible if the maximum occurs early after the emission. Early maxima occur only if the air parcel, in which the NOx emission occurred, is transported to lower altitudes, where the chemical activity is high. This downward transport is caused by subsidence in high-pressure systems. A high ozone magnitude only occurs if the air parcel is transported downward into a region in which the ozone production is efficient. This efficiency is limited by atmospheric NOx and HOx concentrations during summer and winter, respectively. We show that a large CH4 depletion is only possible if a strong formation of O3 occurs due to the NOx emission and if high atmospheric H2O concentrations are present along the air parcel's trajectory. Only air parcels, which are transported into tropical areas due to high-pressure systems, experience high concentrations of H2O and thus a large CH4 depletion. Avoiding climate-sensitive areas by rerouting aircraft flight tracks is currently computationally not feasible due to the long chemical simulations needed. The findings of this study form a basis of a better understanding of NOx climate-sensitive areas and through this will allow us to propose an alternative approach to estimate aviation's climate impact on a day-to-day basis, based on computationally cheaper meteorological simulations without computationally expensive chemistry. This comprises a step towards a climate impact assessment of individual flights, here with the contribution of aviation NOx emissions to climate change, ultimately enabling routings with a lower climate impact by avoiding climate-sensitive regions.

Newly developed aircraft routing options for air traffic simulation in the chemistry–climate model EMAC 2.53: AirTraf 2.0

Abstract. Aviation contributes to climate change, and the climate impact of aviation is expected to increase further. Adaptations of aircraft routings in order to reduce the climate impact are an important climate change mitigation measure. The air traffic simulator AirTraf, as a submodel of the European Center HAMburg general circulation model (ECHAM) and Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, enables the evaluation of such measures. For the first version of the submodel AirTraf, we concentrated on the general setup of the model, including departure and arrival, performance and emissions, and technical aspects such as the parallelization of the aircraft trajectory calculation with only a limited set of optimization possibilities (time and distance). Here, in the second version of AirTraf, we focus on enlarging the objective functions by seven new options to enable assessing operational improvements in many more aspects including economic costs, contrail occurrence, and climate impact. We verify that the AirTraf setup, e.g., in terms of number and choice of design variables for the genetic algorithm, allows us to find solutions even with highly structured fields such as contrail occurrence. This is shown by example simulations of the new routing options, including around 100 North Atlantic flights of an Airbus A330 aircraft for a typical winter day. The results clearly show that AirTraf 2.0 can find the different families of optimum flight trajectories (three-dimensional) for specific routing options; those trajectories minimize the corresponding objective functions successfully. The minimum cost option lies between the minimum time and the minimum fuel options. Thus, aircraft operating costs are minimized by taking the best compromise between flight time and fuel use. The aircraft routings for contrail avoidance and minimum climate impact reduce the potential climate impact which is estimated by using algorithmic climate change functions, whereas these two routings increase the aircraft operating costs. A trade-off between the aircraft operating costs and the climate impact is confirmed. The simulation results are compared with literature data, and the consistency of the submodel AirTraf 2.0 is verified.

Optimization of Speed Profile with RTA Constraints under Wind Uncertainty

Four-dimensional (4D) trajectory is considered to be one of the effective means to reduce the environmental impact of aviation while increasing capacity and safety. This paper proposes an approach to optimize cruise speed profile subject to wind uncertainty, aiming to reduce the fuel burn complying with the Required Time of Arrival (RTA) constraints. The approach is based on a probabilistic framework, and the uncertainty propagation is analyzed using a Probability Transformation Method, and the probability distributions of arrival time and fuel consumption are determined. In addition, from an airborne operation perspective, transition profiles need to be considered in the reference speed optimization problem, aiming to improve the rationale of the reference trajectory. Numerical simulations are presented, and the results demonstrate that the speed profiles optimized by this method are able to meet the RTA constraints in the presence of wind uncertainty, with an average reduction of 7.04% in fuel consumption compared with that of the flight data.