Environmental Changes Research Articles

Analisis Omzet Penjualan Era Pandemi dan Pasca Pandemi Covid-19: Studi Kasus pada D’orbit Bistro, Lounge & KTV

This research aims to analyze the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the sales revenue of D'Orbit Bistro, Lounge & KTV and the strategies implemented for recovery during the period 2019-2022. During the pandemic, there was a drastic decrease in revenue by up to -64%, due to social restrictions and a decline in visitor interest. The outlet responded with CHSE strategies, discounts, and customer-centric approaches. Post-pandemic, there was an increase in revenue by 61%, with the implementation of entertainment, recruitment of new employees, and promotions on social media. The analysis of revenue changes provides a percentage overview of the decline and increase from the lowest point to the recovery of the outlet during the research period. This study offers insights into business adaptation and strategies amid significant environmental changes.

Zero-power infrared switch with two-phase microfluidic flow and a 2D material thermal isolation layer.

Wireless sensor nodes (WSNs) play an important role in many fields, including environmental monitoring. However, unattended WSNs face challenges in consuming power continuously even in the absence of useful information, which makes energy supply the bottleneck of WSNs. Here, we realized zero-power infrared switches, which consist of a metasurface and two-phase microfluidic flow. The metasurface can recognize the infrared signal from the target and convert it into heat, which triggers the two-phase microfluidic flow switch. As the target is not present, the switch is turned off. The graphene/MoS2/graphene 2D material heterostructure (thickness <2 nm) demonstrates an exceptionally high thermal resistance of 4.2 K/W due to strong phonon scattering and reduces the heat flow from the metasurface to the supporting substrate, significantly increasing the device sensitivity (the displacement of the two-phase microfluidic flow increases from ~1500 to ~3000 µm). The infrared switch with a pair of symmetric two-phase microfluidic flows can avoid spurious triggering resulting from environmental temperature changes. We realized WSNs with near-zero standby power consumption by integrating the infrared switch, sensors, and wireless communication module. When the target infrared signal appears, the WSNs are woken and show superb visual/auditory sensing performance. This work provides a novel approach for greatly lengthening the lifespan of unattended WSNs.

Alterations of pleiotropic neuropeptide-receptor gene couples in Cetacea.

Habitat transitions have considerable consequences in organism homeostasis, as they require the adjustment of several concurrent physiological compartments to maintain stability and adapt to a changing environment. Within the range of molecules with a crucial role in the regulation of different physiological processes, neuropeptides are key agents. Here, we examined the coding status of several neuropeptides and their receptors with pleiotropic activity in Cetacea. Analysis of 202 mammalian genomes, including 41 species of Cetacea, exposed an intricate mutational landscape compatible with gene sequence modification and loss. Specifically for Cetacea, in the 12 genes analysed we have determined patterns of loss ranging from species-specific disruptive mutations (e.g. neuropeptide FF-amide peptide precursor; NPFF) to complete erosion of the gene across the cetacean stem lineage (e.g. somatostatin receptor 4; SSTR4). Impairment of some of these neuromodulators may have contributed to the unique energetic metabolism, circadian rhythmicity and diving response displayed by this group of iconic mammals.

Technology Focus: Offshore Facilities (September 2024)

Offshore wind power involves generating electricity from wind farms located at sea. Because wind speeds are generally higher offshore than on land, these farms produce more electricity for the same amount of installed capacity. Both wind and solar energy are renewable and do not emit carbon, which helps reduce dependence on fossil fuels such as oil and gas. The papers synopsized in this year’s Offshore Facilities feature cover a breadth of related subjects that will be critical to the future of the industry. Automation in the offshore oil and gas industry makes production safer, faster, and more efficient. It reduces human error, improves quality control, and allows real-time monitoring of operations. Machine learning improves offshore industries by enhancing safety, efficiency, and sustainability It tracks and predicts environmental changes, such as oil spills or marine life patterns, aiding in better environmental management and response. Remotely operated vehicles are used in offshore operations to inspect, maintain, and repair underwater infrastructure; the offshore industry uses 3D video imaging technology to provide detailed real-time images of the underwater environment. Corrosion in offshore environments occurs because of factors such as seawater, sea salts, temperature, salinity, and moisture. It is crucial to monitor corrosion because it can lead to major structural failures. Hydrogen can be produced offshore using renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, which do not emit greenhouse gases and help combat climate change. Supply-chain logistics boost efficiency by cutting costs, removing unnecessary steps, and speeding up product delivery. An efficient supply chain can lead to higher revenue, lower operational costs, and better overall performance. Decommissioning is the final stage of an oil or gas project and involves significant technical, economic, social, and environmental challenges. It is a lengthy, costly, and complex process that must be carefully planned and managed to avoid serious problems. Several ideas have come to the surface that show innovative ways to repurpose a decommissioned platform or ways to cut the cost of decommissioning. Recommended additional reading at OnePetro: www.onepetro.org. SPE 217706 Dynamic Simulation of Riser-Gas Handling With a Fixed-Choke Constant Outflow by Zhaoguang Yuan, SLB, et al. OTC 35092 Reducing Carbon Footprint by Using Fiber-Reinforced Polymers in FPSOs by S. Eves, NOV, et al. OTC 35393 Challenges and Approaches to Solutions for Green Decommissioning and Recycling of Offshore Facilities by Carlos Alberto Machado, American Bureau of Shipping, et al.

Exploring the molecular and neuronal bases involved in central amygdala-dependent control of emotional behaviors

The central extended amygdala, including the central nucleus of the amygdala (CeA) and the lateral division of the bed nucleus of the stria terminalis (BNSTL), is a pivotal brain region involved in the threat processing responsible for emotional states such as fear and anxiety. These brain regions alter their circuit activities and exhibit necessary functions to adapt to environmental changes. When faced with excessive threats or stress, it is thought that these neural circuit functions are disrupted and cause various stress-related psychiatric disorders. The CeA and BNSTL were suggested to be the same nuclei separated during development because of their dense neural connections, and the similarities in cellular composition and connectivity patterns with other brain regions. On the other side, some recent studies suggested functional differences between these two regions in controlling emotional behaviors. However, functional segregation at the subnuclei level was insufficient since the two regions have complex circuit structures composed of multiple subnuclei. In this review, we introduce the similarities and differences between the CeA and BNSTL that have been clarified from our recent comparative studies of gene expression profiles and circuit functions at the subnuclei level. Additionally, we also discuss how it can contribute to understanding the molecular pathogenesis of neuropsychiatric disorders, including stress-related psychiatric disorders.

Long-term variations in ecosystem water use efficiency in the Tibetan Plateau: Vegetation types, attribution methods and main drivers

Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) is a key indicator for understanding the response of carbon–water processes to environmental changes. However, as affected by uncertainty of WUE estimation and attribution, the individual contributions of environmental drivers to WUE changes and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Here, a theory-based analytical WUE model was modified by introducing an optimal stomatal behavior model, and used to estimate monthly WUE and their drivers during 1982–2018 for main vegetation types on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Rationality of three mainstream analytical attribution methods—analytical-based partial derivative method (APDM), regression-based partial derivative method (NPDM), and climate elasticity method (CEM)—was examined. Furtherly, the contributions of various environmental drivers to WUE variation trend were estimated for various vegetation types. Results indicate that: (1) The modified model performed well in estimating WUE against with observed WUE at five eddy-covariance (EC) flux stations, which decreased the uncertainty of WUE estimation. WUE increased significantly in the TP with a slope of 0.49 × 10-2 g C kg−1 H2O yr−1 during 1982–2018 with forests increased most rapidly; (2) Only APDM captured both the variation and magnitude of WUE trends, and both NPDM and CEM failed to reproduce the magnitude of WUE trends, though CEM was better than NPDM benefited from its nonlinear structure. Through comparing these methods, we found that the nonlinear direct effects of these forcing variables on WUE change could be higher than their indirect effects caused by their interactions. (3) There are some differences in the main drivers of WUE trends for various vegetation types. Increase in WUE was mainly driven by the increase in leaf area index (LAI) for both steppes and meadows, while decreased air water vapor pressure (VPD) and elevated CO2 showed higher positive effects for broad-leaf forests. The distinct response and extremely scarce EC observations of forests suggest that more attention should be paid to forests in the TP. This study could help in selection of attribution methods and understanding the mechanisms of carbon–water coupling of alpine ecosystems under a changing climate.

Relationships between Boldness and Fecal Steroid Hormone Levels in Captive Alpine Musk Deer (Moschus chrysogaster) in China

Animals adapt to environmental changes through behavioral and physiological regulation, and there are individual differences in their ability to adapt to the environment, which are associated with individual personality. Boldness is a fundamental axis of animal personality, characterizing an animal's response to unfamiliar environments and threats. From June 1 to July 28, 2023, a personality assessment experiment utilizing a novel stimulus test with an unfamiliar human was conducted on 39 captive alpine musk deer (Moschus chrysogaster) at the Zhuanglang Musk Farm in Gansu Province, China. We recorded avoidance reaction indicators of musk deer in the presence of an unfamiliar human, and measured the level of the musk deer's boldness, influencing factors, and the relationships with fecal steroid hormone levels. Based on cluster analysis, 39 captive musk deer could be divided into bold (boldness score, BSS = 0.994 ± 0.008, n = 3) and shy groups (BSS = 0.327 ± 0.145, n = 36) and the average BSS in 39 musk deer was 0.378 ± 0.228. Factors such as age, sex, and density of enclosures did not have a significant effect on the boldness of musk deer. There was a significant negative correlation between the musk deer's boldness and the level of fecal cortisol metabolites. However, the correlations between boldness and testosterone levels in males and estradiol levels in females were not significant. Based on the results of our study, in the practice of musk deer farming, the measurement of the boldness can help predict the individual's adaptation to environmental stress, and it can also provide a new research perspective for the study of the boldness of solitary animals that are forced to live in groups.

Ecosystem multifunctionality is more related to the indirect effects than to the direct effects of human management in China's drylands

Drylands provide a wide range of important ecosystem functions but are sensitive to environmental changes, especially human management. Two major land use types of drylands are grasslands and croplands, which are influenced by intensive grazing activities and agricultural management, respectively. However, little is known about whether the ecosystem functioning of these two land use types is predominated affected by human management, or environmental factors (intrinsic environmental factors and factors modified by human management). This limits our understanding of the ecosystem functions under intensive human management in drylands. Here we reported a study where we collected data from 40 grassland and 30 cropland sites along an extensive aridity gradient in China's drylands to quantify the effects of human management intensity, intrinsic environmental factors (i.e., aridity), and environmental factors modified by human management (i.e., soil bulk density and plant density) on specific ecosystem functions (ecosystem multifunctionality, productivity, carbon storage, soil water, and soil nutrients). We found that the relative importance of each function differed between croplands and grasslands. Ecosystem functions varied with human management intensity, with lower productivity and plant carbon storage in grasslands under high grazing intensity than un-grazed, while multifunctionality and carbon storage increased with greater fertilization only in arid croplands. Furthermore, among environmental factors, soil bulk density had the greatest negative effects, which directly reduced multifunctionality in grasslands and indirectly reduced multifunctionality in croplands via suppressing crop density. Crop density was the major environmental factor that positively related to multifunctionality in croplands. However, these effects would be exacerbated with increasing aridity. Our study demonstrated that compared with the direct impacts of human management, environmental factors modified by human management (e.g., soil bulk density) are the major drivers of ecosystem functions, indicating that improving soil structure by alleviating human interferences (e.g., reducing livestock trampling) would be an effective way to restore ecosystem functions in drylands under global warming and drying.

Static-dynamic characteristics and management scheme of county space resilience based on geographical natures—An empirical study of 95 counties from Jiangsu Province, China

Resilient counties has the capability to navigate adverse environmental changes, adaptively reallocate resources during challenges, and bolster county competitiveness. This study introduces an original framework for nurturing resilient counties based on geographical natures, emphasizing the role of geographic space evolution, termed county space resilience (CSR). This study focuses on 95 counties in Jiangsu, a prominent province in the rapidly urbanizing region of eastern China, as a case study. Employing a multi-dimensional feature model and LISA spatiotemporal transition analysis, this study analyzes the static-dynamic characteristics of CSR and proposes a regional guidance scheme. This study draws three key conclusions. Firstly, it reveals that the average CSR value decreased from 0.327 in 2000 to 0.320 in 2005, then increased to 0.380 in 2021, and the geographic trend of transitioning from more economically developed zones to less developed ones. Secondly, the general structural characteristics of CSR are classified into four groups: upgrade transformation, focus optimization, potential enhancement, and safety adjustment. Furthermore, the spatial–temporal coalescence of the Moran’s I scatterplot equals 0.684, signifying stability in the spatial correlation of CSR. Additionally, the dynamic evolution characteristics of CSR are categorized into positive and negative types, with the Yangtze River Green Development Belt acting as the boundary. Lastly, this study constructs a management scheme comprising zoning control and classification strategy tailored for different counties, offering strategic recommendations customized for each. This scheme can serve as a decision-making foundation for policymakers in county development endeavors, fostering the cultivation of resilient counties.

Seasonal changes in invertebrate diet of breeding black-necked cranes (Grus nigricollis).

Invertebrates greatly support the growth, development, and reproduction of insectivorous birds. However, the influence of human activity (e.g., pesticide use, deforestation, and urbanization) inevitably leads to a decrease in global arthropods. The diversity and variation in invertebrate diet influence the food composition of birds, especially species living in rapidly changing environments, such as the Tibetan Plateau. However, little is known of the seasonal variation in invertebrate diet in response to environmental changes. Here, we characterized the invertebrate diet composition in pre- and post-breeding black-necked crane (Grus nigricollis) using fecal metabarcoding. We identified 38 invertebrate genera; the top three were Tipula (82.1% of relative abundance), Ceramica (3.0%), and unclassified_Hymenoptera (2.5%), with Tipula predominated the diet in both seasons. We also observed 20 and 16 unique genera in the pre- and post-breeding periods, and the genera composition was distinct between seasons (R = .036, p = .024). In pre-breeding, black-necked cranes tended to consume more diverse foods, and individual cranes exhibited greater heterogeneity at the genus level. At the genera and species level, pre-breeding black-necked cranes showed a wider dietary niche than post-breeding cranes. We observed season-specific features, with Tipula (common crane fly) and Stethophyma (grasshoppers) being enriched in the post-breeding period and Ceramica (moth) being more abundant in the pre-breeding period. Three Tipula species had the greatest importance in discriminating between seasonal diets. This study demonstrated a seasonal pattern of invertebrate diet in the black-necked crane, suggesting diet composition in response to resource and species availability. These results elaborate on the foraging ecology of highland birds and can inform the management of black-necked crane conservation.

Decoding the Baltic Sea’s past and present: A simple molecular index for ecosystem assessment

Marginal sea ecosystems, such as the Baltic Sea, are severely affected by anthropogenic pressures, such as climate warming, pollution, and eutrophication, which increased in the course of the past century. Biodiversity monitoring data and assessment of environmental status in such systems have typically been carried out only for the past few decades, if at all, and knowledge on pre-impact stability and good ecological status is limited. An extension of monitoring time series can potentially be achieved through analyses of paleoecological records, e.g. for phytoplankton, which form the base of the food web and are highly susceptible to environmental changes. Within the phytoplankton community, dinoflagellates and diatoms play a significant role as primary producers, and their relative dominance in the spring bloom, calculated as Dia/Dino index, is used as an indicator for the environmental status of the Baltic Sea. To extend time series on the dominance patterns and include non-fossilized dinoflagellates, we here establish a simple droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) reaction on ancient DNA from sediment cores that decodes phytoplankton dynamics. We focus on two common spring bloom species, the diatom Skeletonema marinoi and the dinoflagellate Apocalathium malmogiense, for which we evaluate a DNA based dominance index. It performs very well in comparison to DNA metabarcoding and modern monitoring and can elucidate past species dominance across the past century and across millennia in different basins of the Baltic. For the past century, we see a dominance shift already starting before the mid-20th century in two of the Baltic Sea basins, thus substantially predating current monitoring programs. Shifts are only partly coeval among the cores and the index shows different degrees of stability. This pattern is confirmed across millennia, where a long-term stable relationship between the diatom and the dinoflagellate is observed in the Eastern Gotland Basin, while data from the Gulf of Finland bear testimony to a much more unstable relationship. This confirms that good ecological status based on the dominance pattern of diatoms and dinoflagellates must be established locally and exemplifies how sediment core DNA can be employed to extend monitoring data.

Physiological and behavioral responses to social isolation and starvation in a social fish

Changes in the social environment, such as segregating an individual who would typically reside within a social group, may elicit physiological and behavioral responses to external stimulus such as starvation. However, such changes in phenotypic traits receive a little attention in social fish. Here, we used qingbo (Spinibarbus sinensis) with high level of sociability as animal model in order to examine the physiological and behavioral responses of this fish species to social environment (isolation vs. grouping) and nutritional state (well-fed vs. starvation). We found that differences in the reduction of body masses between the group-reared and the isolation-reared fish during periods of starvation can be partially attributed to variations in water volume within the tanks. Additionally, the decrease in standard metabolic rate was more pronounced in the group-reared fish compared to the isolation-reared fish when deprived of food, except for maximum metabolic rate and aerobic scope. Interestingly, only the group-reared fish experienced a decline in constant acceleration swimming performance after food deprivation, while this was not observed in the isolated fish. Neither social isolation nor starvation had any impact on personality expression (e.g., exploration, activity, and boldness). However, both exploration and boldness exhibited temporal effects with an increase in these two personality traits. Social isolation tended to elevate anxiety-like behavior levels. Both social isolation and starvation did not affect upper thermal tolerance; however, starvation enhanced cold resistance of the fish. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of how social environment combined with trophic stress influences phenotypic traits and may offer valuable insights into animal welfare considerations for both natural habitats and aquaculture practices.

Scenario projections of South Asian migration patterns amidst environmental and socioeconomic change

Scenario projections of South Asian migration patterns amidst environmental and socioeconomic change

Early-life variation in migration is subject to strong fluctuating survival selection in a partially migratory bird.

Population dynamic and eco-evolutionary responses to environmental variation and change fundamentally depend on combinations of within- and among-cohort variation in the phenotypic expression of key life-history traits, and on corresponding variation in selection on those traits. Specifically, in partially migratory populations, spatio-seasonal dynamics depend on the degree of adaptive phenotypic expression of seasonal migration versus residence, where more individuals migrate when selection favours migration. Opportunity for adaptive (or, conversely, maladaptive) expression could be particularly substantial in early life, through the initial development of migration versus residence. However, within- and among-cohort dynamics of early-life migration, and of associated survival selection, have not been quantified in any system, preventing any inference on adaptive early-life expression. Such analyses have been precluded because data on seasonal movements and survival of sufficient young individuals, across multiple cohorts, have not been collected. We undertook extensive year-round field resightings of 9359 colour-ringed juvenile European shags Gulosus aristotelis from 11 successive cohorts in a partially migratory population. We fitted Bayesian multi-state capture-mark-recapture models to quantify early-life variation in migration versus residence and associated survival across short temporal occasions through each cohort's first year from fledging, thereby quantifying the degree of adaptive phenotypic expression of migration within and across years. All cohorts were substantially partially migratory, but the degree and timing of migration varied considerably within and among cohorts. Episodes of strong survival selection on migration versus residence occurred both on short timeframes within years, and cumulatively across entire first years, generating instances of instantaneous and cumulative net selection that would be obscured at coarser temporal resolutions. Further, the magnitude and direction of selection varied among years, generating strong fluctuating survival selection on early-life migration across cohorts, as rarely evidenced in nature. Yet, the degree of migration did not strongly covary with the direction of selection, indicating limited early-life adaptive phenotypic expression. These results reveal how dynamic early-life expression of and selection on a key life-history trait, seasonal migration, can emerge across seasonal, annual, and multi-year timeframes, yet be substantially decoupled. This restricts the potential for adaptive phenotypic, microevolutionary, and population dynamic responses to changing seasonal environments.

A cross-cultural investigation of active transportation and community participation: Results from the WHO survey of Global Ageing and Adult Health

Little is known about how the associations between active transportation and community participation may vary across national contexts. Using representative datasets from China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa collected in the Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (N = 33,535), we estimated multi-group confirmatory factor analyses, tests of measurement invariance, and predictive models. Standardized coefficients were equivalent across countries and showed a modest positive association between active transportation and community participation (the variance explained by active transportation ranged from 1.3% to 7.5% across countries). These results suggest that supporting active transportation can help mitigate negative environmental and health changes associated with increased vehicular travel and support social capital via community participation.

Addition of polyester microplastic fibers to soil alters the diversity and abundance of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and affects plant growth and nutrition

Microplastics (MPs) represent an emerging factor in global environmental change and are increasingly found in soils. However, the extent to which they affect plants and their interactions with the soil microbiome is poorly understood. Here, we test the hypothesis that increasing levels of polyester MP fibers in soil alter plant growth and nutrient acquisition responses to arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi via changes in AM fungal colonization and community composition. We used Sorghum drummondii as a model species in a fully factorial greenhouse experiment. Plants were exposed to soil treatments with 0, 0.2, 1, and 3% MP polyester fibers either in the presence or absence of an assembled AM fungal community comprising 13 species across three families with contrasting life-history strategies. We found that the 1% MP treatment promoted plant biomass irrespective of the presence of AM fungi. While no changes in macronutrient concentrations in plant tissues were seen, there was a significant increase in B and Mn when relatively low amounts of MPs were added, and this effect was modulated by AM fungi. Furthermore, there were shifts in AM fungal community composition in response to MP, favoring taxa such as Gigaspora sp. while negatively affecting ruderal taxa like Glomus sp. Overall, our data indicate that MP polyester fibers present in soil can in some cases be beneficial to plants and AM fungal interactions. However, the implications of these findings over the long-term and in the context of ecological repercussions of MP pollution in the environment remain to be seen.

Earthworm records and habitat associations in the British Isles

The National Earthworm Recording Scheme (NERS) is the most comprehensive national database of earthworm species occurrence records for the British Isles, and possibly for any individual country in the world. Utilising the NERS database, we sought to update the current knowledge of earthworm species occurrences in the UK, Ireland and Channel Islands; identify species-specific habitat and microhabitat associations; reveal any biases and complementarities between amateur naturalist and research-related earthworm record collection; and inform how future earthworm sampling can be better focussed to improve our knowledge of earthworm ecology. We found that the most commonly occurring earthworm species were present in farmland and woodland, and recovered via soil pit sampling, the most common habitat-sampling protocol combinations. However, several earthworm species showed specificity to alternative habitats (such as trees, wetlands, and compost), and association with microhabitat (non-soil) sampling. There were clear disparities between scientific researchers and amateur naturalist recorders in terms of habitat types visited and sampling protocols/microhabitats used in the collection of earthworm records. Most importantly, we found that earthworm species currently considered to be nationally ‘rare’ in the British Isles are significantly associated with the most under-represented habitat-protocol/microhabitat combinations (forest deadwood and other microhabitats, in addition to scrubland, wetland and heathland habitats), and thus may not be rare, only under-sampled. We therefore encourage earthworm researchers and recorders to give greater attention to these situations, to gain new insights into these earthworm species' ecologies and distributions. Finally, we would like to promote the establishment of earthworm recording schemes in other countries, to enable national and global collaborative monitoring of earthworm responses to environmental change.

EXPRESS: The Impact of Air Pollution on Consumer Spending

Air pollution is a growing concern to economies and societies worldwide. Despite common knowledge that air pollution impairs our emotions and cognition and hence behavioral outcomes, the impact of air pollution on consumer spending remains an open question. Analyzing air quality readings and individual-level credit card transactions in South Korea, this paper shows that consumers spend more money when air quality is poorer. This correlation is more prominent in hedonic categories, such as entertainment or leisure activities, where the nature of consumption is characterized by greater emotional benefits. The authors consider potential explanations, and the leading hypothesis is that consumers treat spending as a mood-regulating resource. The results survive an array of robustness checks and are supported in a controlled experiment, reinforcing a causal inference behind the main findings. The authors provide implications for stakeholders to develop a sustainable marketing program that not only pursues managerial interests but also concerns consumer welfare in the face of environmental change.

Effect of Temperature and Precipitation on Acute Appendicitis Incidence in Seoul: A Time Series Regression Analysis.

This study aimed to investigate the relationship between meteorological factors, specifically temperature and precipitation, and the incidence of appendicitis in Seoul, South Korea. Using data from the National Health Insurance Service spanning 2010-2020, the study analyzed 165,077 appendicitis cases in Seoul. Time series regression modeling with distributed-lag non-linear models was employed. Regarding acute appendicitis and daily average temperature, the incidence rate ratio (IRR) showed an increasing trend from approximately - 10°C to 10°C. At temperatures above 10°C, the increase was more gradual. The IRR approached a value close to 1 at temperatures below - 10°C and above 30°C. Both total and complicated appendicitis exhibited similar trends. Increased precipitation was negatively associated with the incidence of total acute appendicitis around the 50mm/day range, but not with complicated appendicitis. The findings suggest that environmental factors, especially temperature, may play a role in the occurrence of appendicitis. This research underscores the potential health implications of global climate change and the need for further studies to understand the broader impacts of environmental changes on various diseases.

Modelling landscape-scale occurrences of common grassland species in a topographically complex mountainous environment

AbstractMountainous regions typically harbour high plant diversity but are also characterised by low sampling intensity. Coarse-scale species distribution models can provide insights into the distribution of poorly sampled species, but the required bioclimatic data are often limited in these landscapes. In comparison, several environmental factors that vary over relatively fine scales in mountain environments (e.g. measures of topography) can be quantified from remotely-sensed data, and can potentially provide direct and indirect measures of biologically-relevant habitat characteristics in mountains. Therefore, in this study, we combine field-sampled floristic data with environmental predictors derived from remotely-sensed data, to model the ecological niches of 19 montane plant species in the Maloti-Drakensberg mountains, South Africa. The resulting models varied considerably in their performance, and species showed generally inconsistent responses to environmental predictors, with altitude and distance to watershed being most frequently included in models. These results highlight the species-specificity of the forb species’ environmental tolerances and requirements, suggesting that environmental change may result in re-shuffling of community composition, instead of intact communities shifting along gradients. Furthermore, while the relatively high importance of altitude (a proxy for temperature) and topographic wetness index (a proxy for soil moisture) suggest that the flora of this region will be sensitive to shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns, several non-climatic environmental variables were also influential. Our findings indicate that local response to climate change in mountains might be especially constrained by soil type and topographic variables, supporting the important influence of non-climatic factors in microclimatic refugia dynamics.