ENSO Teleconnections Research Articles

Forecasting Pacific SSTs: Linear Inverse Model Predictions of the PDO

Abstract A linear inverse model (LIM) is used to predict Pacific (30°S–60°N) sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), including the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The LIM is derived from the observed simultaneous and lagged covariance statistics of 3-month running mean Pacific SSTA for the years 1951–2000. The model forecasts exhibit significant skill over much of the Pacific for two to three seasons in advance and up to a year in some locations, particulary for forecasts initialized in winter. The predicted and observed PDO are significantly correlated at leads of up to four seasons, for example, the correlation exceeds 0.6 for 12-month forecasts initialized in January–March (JFM). The LIM-based PDO forecasts are more skillful than persistence or a first-order autoregressive model, and have comparable skill to LIM forecasts of El Niño SSTAs. Filtering the data indicates that much of the PDO forecast skill is due to ENSO teleconnections and the global trend. Within LIM, SST anomalies can grow due to constructive interference of the empirically determined modes, even though the individual modes are damped over time. For the Pacific domain, the basinwide SST variance can grow for ∼14 months, consistent with the skill of the actual predictions. The optimal structure (OS), the initial SSTA pattern that LIM indicates should increase the most rapidly with time, is clearly relevant to the predictions, as the OS develops into a mature ENSO and PDO event 6–10 months later. The OS is also consistent with the seasonal footprinting mechanism (SFM) and the meridional mode (MM); the SFM and MM involve a set of atmosphere–ocean interactions that have been hypothesized to initiate ENSO events.

The ECPC Coupled Prediction Model

Abstract This paper presents a new Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) Coupled Prediction Model (ECPM). The ECPM includes the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) version of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) ocean model coupled to the ECPC version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Atmospheric Global Spectral Model (GSM). The adjoint and forward versions of the MIT model forced with the NCEP atmospheric analyses are routinely used at JPL for ocean state assimilation. An earlier version of the GSM was used for the NCEP–Department of Energy reanalysis-2 project and for operational seasonal forecasts at NCEP. The ECPM climatology and internal variability derived from a 56-yr-long coupled integration are compared with the observations and reanalysis data. Though the ECPM exhibits climatological biases, these biases are relatively small and comparable to the systematic errors produced by other well-known coupled models, including the recent NCEP Climate Forecast System. The internal variability of the model resembles the observations. ECPM simulates both seasonal and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific reasonably well. The model has good skill in reproducing the mechanism of ENSO evolution as well as ENSO teleconnection patterns (including the Indian monsoon–ENSO relationship). The skill of the ECPM in predicting 1994–2006 SST anomalies over the Niño-3.4 region is shown to be comparable to other coupled models. These retrospective forecasts were used for deriving a model climatology for real-time seasonal forecasts that are currently produced and displayed at ECPC.

The Predictability of Interdecadal Changes in ENSO Activity and ENSO Teleconnections

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a century-long integration of a Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) coupled general circulation model (CGCM) drives rainfall and temperature changes over Australia that are generally consistent with documented observational changes: dry/hot conditions occur more frequently during El Niño years and wet/mild conditions occur more frequently during La Niña years. The relationship between ENSO [as measured by Niño-4 or the Southern Oscillation index (SOI), say] and all-Australia rainfall and temperature is found to be nonlinear in the observations and in the CGCM during June–December: a large La Niña sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is closely linked to a large Australian response (i.e., Australia usually becomes much wetter), whereas the magnitude of an El Niño SST anomaly is a poorer guide to how dry Australia will actually become. Australia tends to dry out during El Niño events, but the degree of drying is not as tightly linked to the magnitude of the El Niño SST anomaly. Nonlinear or asymmetric teleconnections are also evident in the western United States/northern Mexico. The implications of asymmetric teleconnections for prediction services are discussed. The relationship between ENSO and Australian climate in both the model and the observations is strong in some decades, but weak in others. A series of decadal-long perturbation experiments are used to show that if these interdecadal changes are predictable, then the level of predictability is low. The model’s Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which represents interdecadal ENSO-like SST variability, is statistically linked to interdecadal changes in ENSO’s impact on Australia during June–December when ENSO’s impact on Australia is generally greatest. A simple stochastic model that incorporates the nonlinearity above is used to show that the IPO [or the closely related Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)] can appear to modulate ENSO teleconnections even if the IPO–PDO largely reflect unpredictable random changes in, for example, the relative frequency of El Niño and La Niña events in a given interdecadal period. Note, however, that predictability in ENSO-related variability on decadal time scales might be either underestimated by the CGCM, or be too small to be detected by the modest number of perturbation experiments conducted. If there is a small amount of predictability in ENSO indices on decadal time scales, and there may be, then the nonlinearity described above provides a mechanism via which ENSO teleconnections could be modulated on decadal time scales in a partially predictable fashion.

ENSO Evolution and Teleconnections in IPCC’s Twentieth-Century Climate Simulations: Realistic Representation?

Abstract This study focuses on the assessment of the spatiotemporal structure of ENSO variability and its winter climate teleconnections to North America in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) simulations of twentieth-century climate. The 1950–99 period simulations of six IPCC models are analyzed in an effort to benchmark models in the simulation of this leading mode of interannual variability: the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled Model version 2.1 (CM2.1), the coupled ocean–atmosphere model of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS-EH), the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), the NCAR Parallel Coupled Model (PCM), the Hadley Centre Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model version 3 (HadCM3), and version 3.2 of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate at high resolution [MIROC3.2 (hires)]. The standard deviation of monthly SST anomalies is maximum in the Niño-3 region in all six simulations, indicating progress in the modeling of ocean–atmosphere variability. The broad success in modeling ENSO’s SST footprint—quite realistic in CCSM3—is however tempered by the difficulties in modeling ENSO evolution: for example, the biennial oscillation in CCSM3 and the lack of regular warm-to-cold phase transition in the MIROC model. The spatiotemporal structure, including seasonal phase locking, is, on the whole, well modeled by HadCM3; but there is room for improvement, notably, in modeling the SST footprint in the western Pacific. ENSO precipitation anomalies over the tropical Pacific and links to North American winter precipitation are also realistic in the HadCM3 simulation and, to an extent, in PCM. Hydroclimate teleconnections that lean on a stationary component of the flow, such as surface air temperature links, are however not well modeled by HadCM3 since the midlatitude ridge in the ENSO response is incorrectly placed in the simulation; PCM fares better. The analysis reveals that climate models are improving but are still unable to simulate many features of ENSO variability and its circulation and hydroclimate teleconnections to North America. Predicting regional climate variability/change remains an onerous burden on models.

Influences of the Atlantic Warm Pool on Western Hemisphere Summer Rainfall and Atlantic Hurricanes

Abstract The Atlantic warm pool (AWP) of water warmer than 28.5°C comprises the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the western tropical North Atlantic (TNA). The AWP reaches its maximum size around September, with large AWPs being almost 3 times larger than small ones. Although ENSO teleconnections are influential on the AWP, about two-thirds of the large and small AWP variability appears unrelated to ENSO. The AWP is usually geographically different from the TNA; however, the AWP size is correlated with the TNA SST anomalies. During August to October, large AWPs and warm TNA are associated with increased rainfall over the Caribbean, Mexico, the eastern subtropical Atlantic, and the southeast Pacific, and decreased rainfall in the northwest United States, Great Plains, and eastern South America. In particular, rainfall in the Caribbean, Central America, and eastern South America from August to October is mainly related to the size of the AWP. Large (small) AWPs and warm (cold) TNA correspond to a weakening (strengthening) of the northward surface winds from the AWP to the Great Plains that disfavors (favors) moisture transport for rainfall over the Great Plains. On the other hand, large (small) AWPs and warm (cold) TNA strengthen (weaken) the summer regional Atlantic Hadley circulation that emanates from the warm pool region into the southeast Pacific, changing the subsidence over the southeast Pacific and thus the stratus cloud and drizzle there. The large AWP, associated with a decrease in sea level pressure and an increase in atmospheric convection and cloudiness, corresponds to a weak tropospheric vertical wind shear and a deep warm upper ocean, and thus increases Atlantic hurricane activity.

Impacts of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans on ENSO

The impacts of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans on ENSO are studied using a series of 500 years long GCM simulations, in which the tropical Indian and/or Atlantic Ocean SSTs are fixed. The results indicate that the tropical Indian and/or Atlantic Oceans SST anomalies substantially influence the coupling over the equatorial Pacific. In the absence of SST variability in the tropical Indian and/or Atlantic Ocean, the main ENSO period is shifted by almost one year. The total SST variance in the equatorial Pacific region is reduced if either Indian or Atlantic Ocean variability is present. At the same time the atmospheric ENSO teleconnections are damped more strongly than the SST. The results can be understood in the context of the recharge oscillator model. However, it is difficult to verify the feedback of the Indian and/or Atlantic Oceans onto ENSO only with statistical analyses of the coupled model control integration or observations.

Remote ENSO forcing versus local air-sea interaction in QTCM: a sensitivity study to intraseasonal variability

Abstract. The skill of a newly designed global atmospheric model of intermediate complexity - QTCM (for quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model) in simulating the teleconnections is investigated. The role of the ENSO remote forcing over the Pacific surrounding regions is emphasized from sensitivity experiments to critical parameters of the model. The role of the tropical intraseasonal variability (ITV) on the simulated ENSO teleconnection pattern is estimated using the methodology proposed by Lin et al. (2000) allowing to damp the energy of ITV in the model. The reduction of intraseasonal variability allows emphasizing the forced response of the atmosphere and eases the detection of local coupled atmosphere-ocean patterns. It was shown that the simulated ITV has an impact on the ENSO teleconnection pattern both in the mid-latitudes and in regions of ascending and descending branches of Walker circulation cells in the tropics.

Leading Tropical Modes Associated with Interannual and Multidecadal Fluctuations in North Atlantic Hurricane Activity

Abstract Interannual and multidecadal extremes in Atlantic hurricane activity are shown to result from a coherent and interrelated set of atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with three leading modes of climate variability in the Tropics. All three modes are related to fluctuations in tropical convection, with two representing the leading multidecadal modes of convective rainfall variability, and one representing the leading interannual mode (ENSO). The tropical multidecadal modes are shown to link known fluctuations in Atlantic hurricane activity, West African monsoon rainfall, and Atlantic sea surface temperatures, to the Tropics-wide climate variability. These modes also capture an east–west seesaw in anomalous convection between the West African monsoon region and the Amazon basin, which helps to account for the interhemispheric symmetry of the 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies across the Atlantic Ocean and Africa, the 200-hPa divergent wind anomalies, and both the structure and spatial scale of the low-level tropical wind anomalies, associated with multidecadal extremes in Atlantic hurricane activity. While there are many similarities between the 1950–69 and 1995–2004 periods of above-normal Atlantic hurricane activity, important differences in the tropical climate are also identified, which indicates that the above-normal activity since 1995 does not reflect an exact return to conditions seen during the 1950s–60s. In particular, the period 1950–69 shows a strong link to the leading tropical multidecadal mode (TMM), whereas the 1995–2002 period is associated with a sharp increase in amplitude of the second leading tropical multidecadal mode (TMM2). These differences include a very strong West African monsoon circulation and near-average sea surface temperatures across the central tropical Atlantic during 1950–69, compared with a modestly enhanced West African monsoon and exceptionally warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures during 1995–2004. It is shown that the ENSO teleconnections and impacts on Atlantic hurricane activity can be substantially masked or accentuated by the leading multidecadal modes. This leads to the important result that these modes provide a substantially more complete view of the climate control over Atlantic hurricane activity during individual seasons than is afforded by ENSO alone. This result applies to understanding differences in the “apparent” ENSO teleconnections not only between the above- and below-normal hurricane decades, but also between the two sets of above-normal hurricane decades.

Climatology: its scientific nature and scope

International Journal of ClimatologyVolume 26, Issue 1 p. 1-5 EditorialFree Access Climatology: its scientific nature and scope Glenn R. McGregor, Corresponding Author Glenn R. McGregor Department of Geography, King's College LondonDepartment of Geography, King's College LondonSearch for more papers by this author Glenn R. McGregor, Corresponding Author Glenn R. McGregor Department of Geography, King's College LondonDepartment of Geography, King's College LondonSearch for more papers by this author First published: 06 January 2006 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1291Citations: 7AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat REFERENCES Arnfield JA. 2003. Two decades of urban climate research: a review of turbulence, exchanges of energy and water, and the urban heat island. International Journal of Climatology 23: 1– 26. Bigg GR, Jickells TD, Liss PS, Osborn TJ. 2003. The role of the oceans in climate. International Journal of Climatology 23: 1127– 1159. Bryson RA. 1997. The paradigm of climatology: an essay. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78: 449– 455. Diaz HF, Hoerling MP, Eischeid JK. 2001. ENSO variability, teleconnections and climate change. International Journal of Climatology 21: 1845– 1862. Glantz MH. 2003. Climate Affairs: A Primer. Island Press: Covalo California, 291. Goddard L, Mason SJ, Zebiak SE, Ropelewski CF, Basher R, Cane MA. 2001. Current approaches to seasonal to interannual climate predictions. International Journal of Climatology 21: 1111– 1152. Inkpen R. 2005. Science, Philosophy and Physical Geography. Routledge: London, 156. Kidd C. 2001. Satellite rainfall climatology: a review. International Journal of Climatology 21: 1041– 1066. Lockwood JG. 2001. Abrupt and sudden climatic transitions and fluctuations: a review. International Journal of Climatology 21: 1153– 1179. McGuffie K, Henderson-Sellers A. 2001. Forty years of numerical climate modelling. International Journal of Climatology 21: 1067– 1109. Marshall J, Kushnir Y, Battisti D, Chang P, Czaja A, Dickson R, Hurrell J, McCartney M, Saravanan R, Visbeck M. 2001. North Atlantic climate variability: phenomena, impacts and mechanisms. International Journal of Climatology 21: 1863– 1898. New M, Todd M, Hulme M, Jones P. 2001. Precipitation measurements and trends in the twentieth century. International Journal of Climatology 21: 1889– 1922. Pitman AJ. 2003. The evolution of, and revolution in, land surface schemes designed for climate models. International Journal of Climatology 23: 479– 510. Thornes JE, McGregor GR. 2003. Cultural Climatology. In Contemporary Meanings in Physical Geography, S Trudgill, A Roy (eds). Arnold: London, 173– 198. Turner J, Colwell SR, Marshall GJ, Lachlan-Cope TA, Carleton AM. 2005. Antartic Climate change during the last 50 years. International Journal of Climatology 25: 279– 294. Wijngaard JB, Klein Tank AMG, Können GP. 2003. Homogeneity of 20th century European daily temperature and precipitation series. International Journal of Climatology 23: 679– 692. Yarnal B, Comrie AC, Frakes B, Brown DP. 2001. Developments and prospects in synoptic climatology. International Journal of Climatology 21: 1923– 1950. Zwiers FW, von Storch H. 2004. On the role of statistics in climate research. International Journal of Climatology 24: 665– 680. Citing Literature Volume26, Issue1January 2006Pages 1-5 ReferencesRelatedInformation

Mechanisms of Remote Tropical Surface Warming during El Niño

Abstract The authors demonstrate through atmospheric general circulation model (the Community Climate Model version 3.10) simulations of the 1997/98 El Niño that the observed “remote” (i.e., outside the Pacific) tropical land and ocean surface warming appearing a few months after the peak of the El Niño event is causally linked to the Tropics-wide warming of the troposphere resulting from increased atmospheric heating in the Pacific, with the latter acting as a conduit for the former. Unlike surface temperature, the surface flux behavior in the remote Tropics in response to El Niño is complex, with sizable spatial variation and compensation between individual flux components; this complexity suggests a more fundamental control (i.e., tropospheric temperature) for the remote tropical surface warming. Over the remote oceans, latent heat flux acting through boundary layer humidity variations is the important regulator linking the surface warming in the model simulations to the tropospheric warming over the remote tropical oceans. Idealized 1997/98 El Niño simulations using an intermediate tropical circulation model (the Quasi-Equilibrium Tropical Circulation Model) in which individual surface fluxes are directly manipulated confirms this result. The findings over the remote ocean are consistent with the “tropospheric temperature mechanism” previously proposed for the tropical ENSO teleconnection, with equatorial planetary waves propagating tropospheric temperature anomalies from the eastern Pacific to the remote Tropics and moist convective processes mediating the troposphere-to-remote-surface connection. The latter effectively requires the boundary layer moist static energy to vary in concert with the free tropospheric moist static energy. Over the remote land regions, idealized model simulations suggest that sensible heat flux regulates the warming response to El Niño, though the underlying mechanism has not yet been fully determined.

Atmospheric Hydrology of the Anomalous 2002 Indian Summer Monsoon

Abstract The 2002 Indian summer monsoon season is unique because of its exceptional weakness, its association with a relatively weak El Niño, and its precedence by over a decade in which ENSO events fail to be associated with significant monsoon anomalies. In this study, atmospheric hydrology during the 2002 summer monsoon and its relationship to monsoon seasons accompanying El Niño events since 1948 are assessed using reanalysis and satellite fields. Strong hydrologic deficits are identified for July and September 2002. During July, the impact of the disturbed Hadley and Walker circulations in the African and Indian Ocean region on vertically integrated moisture transport (VIMT) in the Arabian Sea and India is found to be key to the Indian drought. Interhemispheric coherence in satellite-derived surface wind anomalies is also identified. During September, VIMT and surface wind anomalies, both to the east and west of India, contribute to anomalous moisture divergence in India. Bay of Bengal SST and Indian CAPE anomalies are found to act in response to the season’s major break episodes, contrary to other studies that suggest their role as instigators of break periods. The 2002 season is also found to exhibit characteristics that are common to other recent weak monsoons accompanying El Niño, such as strong westerly VIMT anomalies in the western Pacific Ocean and easterly VIMT anomalies in the Arabian Sea. Hydrologic anomalies that distinguish many recent normal monsoon seasons coinciding with El Niño from the El Niño distribution overall are not evident in 2002. In many respects, the 2002 season thus represents a reemergence of the hydrologic anomalies that have accompanied a strong monsoon–ENSO teleconnection over the past 50 yr and may present a challenge for perspectives that suggest a lasting decoupling of the monsoon–ENSO systems.

Observed Atlantic SST Anomaly Impact on the NAO: An Update

Abstract The Pan-Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern that was found in a previous study to have a significant impact on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in early winter seemed to reflect the nearly uncorrelated influence of a horseshoe SST anomaly in the North Atlantic and an SST anomaly in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. A lagged rotated maximum covariance analysis of a slightly longer dataset shows that the horseshoe SST anomaly influence is robust, but it deemphasizes the center of action southeast of Newfoundland, Canada. On the other hand, it suggests that the link between equatorial SST and the NAO was artificial and due both to ENSO teleconnections and the orthogonality constraint in the maximum covariance analysis.

Evaluation of Atmospheric Fields from the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasts over a 15-Year Period

Abstract Since 1997, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has made seasonal forecasts with ensembles of a coupled ocean–atmosphere model, System-1 (S1). In January 2002, a new version, System-2 (S2), was introduced. For the calibration of these models, hindcasts have been performed starting in 1987, so that 15 yr of hindcasts and forecasts are now available for verification. The main cause of seasonal predictability is El Niño and La Niña perturbing the average weather in many regions and seasons throughout the world. As a baseline to compare the dynamical models with, a set of simple statistical models (STAT) is constructed. These are based on persistence and a lagged regression with the first few EOFs of SST from 1901 to 1986 wherever the correlations are significant. The first EOF corresponds to ENSO, and the second corresponds to decadal ENSO. The temperature model uses one EOF, the sea level pressure (SLP) model uses five EOFs, and the precipitation model uses two EOFs but excludes persistence. As the number of verification data points is very low (15), the simplest measure of skill is used: the correlation coefficient of the ensemble mean. To further reduce the sampling uncertainties, we restrict ourselves to areas and seasons of known ENSO teleconnections. The dynamical ECMWF models show better skill in 2-m temperature forecasts over sea and the tropical land areas than STAT, but the modeled ENSO teleconnection pattern to North America is shifted relative to observations, leading to little pointwise skill. Precipitation forecasts of the ECMWF models are very good, better than those of the statistical model, in southeast Asia, the equatorial Pacific, and the Americas in December–February. In March–May the skill is lower. Overall, S1 (S2) shows better skill than STAT at lead time of 2 months in 29 (32) out of 40 regions and seasons of known ENSO teleconnections.

Observed precipitation in the Paran�-Plata hydrological basin: long-term trends, extreme conditions and ENSO teleconnections

The Parana-Plata basin is the second largest hydrological basin in South America and is of great importance for the countries of the region (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay). The present study focuses on the long-term trends in basin-scale precipitation with special emphasis on the role of distribution changes in extreme large-scale precipitation events and on the characteristics and evolution of ENSO teleconnections over the last 50 years. First, we defined a Parana-Plata basin total precipitation index (PTPI) as the precipitations spatially averaged over the hydrological basin. On interannual time scales, such an index is mainly representative of anomalous monsoon precipitations in the northern part of the basin and large convective precipitation anomalies in the center of the basin (Paraguay-southern Brazil-Uruguay-northern Argentina) typical of the canonical ENSO teleconnection pattern. Our major findings clearly highlight a positive trend in yearly averaged PTPI mainly from the late 1960s to the early 1980s with a strong dependence from month-to-month. The largest precipitation increase is observed from November to May in southern Brazil and Argentina. A close examination of PTPI distributions during the two halves of the period 1950–2001 shows that the changes in the mean state from 1950–1975 to 1976–2001 result from significant changes in each calendar month mean state and in the tails of the PTPI anomaly distributions in May with lesser and weaker large-scale dry events and stronger large-scale wet events. Further studies will be needed to assess whether the observed trend in large-scale extreme precipitation conditions can be related to natural climate variability or anthropogenic activities and whether it is associated to changes in local/regional extreme events. The stronger wet conditions in different months seem to be associated to changes in ENSO characteristics (amplitude, propagation, spatial structure, ...) since the 1982–1983 El Nino. Indeed, spatial ENSO teleconnections (stronger in November and April–May) have greatly evolved from 1950–1975 to 1976–2001. Moreover, we demonstrate that there is a strong modulation and displacement of the teleconnection patterns from one event to another, impeding the definition of robust statistical relationship between ENSO and precipitation in the Parana-Plata basin (except maybe over a very limited area near the common border between Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil). Finally, the non-antisymmetrical patterns of precipitation between El Nino and La Nina conditions and the non-linear relationship between precipitation and either Nino3.4 or Nino1+2 sea surface temperature indices show that linear statistical forecast systems are actually of very limited use for impact predictions on society on a local or regional scale.

On the Forcing of ENSO Teleconnections by Anomalous Heating and Cooling

Abstract ENSO teleconnections were originally regarded as a single train of stationary Rossby waves generated by a compact region of enhanced (reduced for La Nina) equatorial convective heating. While more recent studies have greatly enhanced this dynamical picture, the dominant conceptual model of the teleconnections still identifies this monopolar convective heat source as the ultimate driver of the teleconnections. This note presents evidence that the surrounding regions of diabatic cooling are just as important as equatorial heating in producing the ENSO teleconnections. In simulations with a linear diagnostic model, heating and cooling anomalies derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis make comparable contributions to the upper-level eddy height anomalies. In particular, remote cooling is just as important as local heating in determining the central longitude of the subtropical El Nino anticyclones. The same diagnos...

Seasonal predictability of ENSO teleconnections: the role of the remote ocean response

In this modelling study, the teleconnections of ENSO are studied using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), HadAM3. The influence of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) remote from the tropical Pacific but teleconnected with ENSO is investigated. Composite cycles of El Nino and La Nina SSTs are created and imposed on HadAM3. These SSTs are imposed in different areas, with climatological SSTs elsewhere, in order to find the influences of SSTs in different regions. It is found that most of the reproducible response to ENSO is forced directly from the tropical Pacific before the peak of the event. However, during the peak and decay of ENSO, remote SSTs become increasingly influential throughout the tropics (at the 98% significance level). This could lead to extended ENSO-related predictability due to the memory of the remote oceans. The Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent SSTs are found to be particularly influential. Indian Ocean SSTAs dampen the teleconnections from the tropical Pacific and force the atmosphere above the tropical Atlantic. More generally, when a tropical SSTA is imposed, atmospheric anomalies are forced locally with anomalies of the opposite sign to the west. Some of the reproducible response to ENSO in the tropical Atlantic is forced, not directly from the tropical Pacific but from the Indian ocean, which in turn is forced by the tropical Pacific. Subsequently, delayed SSTAs in the tropical Atlantic damp the local response and force the atmosphere above the tropical Pacific in the opposite manner.

A Midlatitude–ENSO Teleconnection Mechanism via Baroclinically Unstable Long Rossby Waves

The possibility of generating decadal ENSO variability via an ocean teleconnection to the midlatitude Pacific is studied. This is done by analyzing the sensitivity of the equatorial stratification to midlatitude processes using an ocean general circulation model, the adjoint method, and a quasigeostrophic normal-mode stability analysis. It is found that, on timescales of 2–15 yr, the equatorial Pacific is most sensitive to midlatitude planetary Rossby waves traveling from the midlatitudes toward the western boundary and then to the equator. Those waves that propagate through baroclinically unstable parts of the subtropical gyre are amplified by the baroclinic instability and therefore dominate the midlatitude signal arriving at the equator. This result implies that decadal variability in the midlatitude Pacific would be efficiently transmitted to the equatorial Pacific from specific areas of the midlatitude Pacific that are baroclinically unstable, such as the near-equatorial edges of the subtropical gyres (15°N and 12°S). The Rossby waves that propagate via the baroclinically unstable areas are of the advective mode type, which follow the gyre circulation to some degree and arrive from as far as 25°N and 30°S in the east Pacific. It is shown that the baroclinic instability amplifying these waves involves critical layers due to the vertical shear of the subtropical gyre circulation, at depths of 150–200 m.

The Simulation of Peak and Delayed ENSO Teleconnections

Abstract There is much evidence that El Nino and La Nina lead to significant atmospheric seasonal predictability across much of the globe. However, despite successful predictions of tropical Pacific SSTs, atmospheric seasonal forecasts have had limited success. This study investigates model errors in the Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model version 3 (HadAM3) by analyzing composites of similar El Nino and La Nina events at their peak in December–January–February (DJF) and through their decay in March–April–May (MAM). The large-scale, tropical ENSO teleconnections are modeled accurately by HadAM3 during DJF but the strongest extratropical teleconnection, that in the North Pacific during winter, is modeled inaccurately. The Aleutian low is frequently observed to shift eastward during El Nino but the modeled response always consists of a deepening of the low without a shift. This is traced to small errors in the sensitivity of precipitation to SST in the tropical Pacific, which does not display enough variability...

Shift in ENSO Teleconnections Recorded by a Northern Red Sea Coral

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections over Europe and the Middle East are evaluated using an oxygen isotope coral time series from the northern Red Sea and various instrumental datasets. A shift in the correlation between the Niño-3 index and the Red Sea coral record in the 1970s is detected, and it is shown that this shift can be attributed to nonstationary circulation regimes and related ENSO teleconnections. It is found that positive anomalies of oxygen isotope in the Red Sea coral record from the middle 1930s to the late 1960s are associated with a strong Pacific–North Atlantic teleconnection accompanied by a weak Aleutian low, a more zonal flow at midlatitudes, and La Niña conditions in tropical Pacific. In contrast, positive anomalies of oxygen isotopes in the Red Sea coral after the 1970s are related to El Niño conditions and weaker Pan-Pacific–Atlantic circulation regimes. Using the window correlation of the northern Red Sea coral record with two coral records from the tropical and subtropical Pacific, nonstationary relationships between the tropical Pacific and the European–Middle Eastern climate during the preinstrumental period are found. The results imply that the modulation of teleconnections at interdecadal timescales provides a limitation in the prediction and reconstruction of remote climate phenomena such as the ENSO impact over Europe.

A Moist Linear Baroclinic Model: Coupled Dynamical–Convective Response to El Niño

A newly developed, linear baroclinic model (LBM) and its application to the tropical ENSO teleconnection is described. The model, based on primitive equations linearized about the observed, zonally varying basic state in northern winter, involves linear schemes for the cumulus convection, and surface sensible and latent heat fluxes, referred to as the moist LBM. This enables us to solve a steady-state response of the coupled dynamical‐ convective system to a given SST anomaly, which is fairly different from the conventional dry LBM. Linear representation of the convection is acceptable for a realistic range of SST anomalies, reproducing well the Rossby wave train computed in the conventional LBM forced by a tropical heating. The moist LBM is used to examine the formation mechanisms of an anomalous low-level anticyclone near