Energy Security Risks Research Articles

Competing Pathways for the Decarbonisation of Road Transport: A Comparative Analysis of Electric and Hydrogen Vehicles

Both hydrogen and electric vehicles (HVs and EVs) have received widespread attention as key options for decoupling road transport from the environmental and energy security risks posed by climate change and oil dependency. However, considerable uncertainty remains as to which of these technologies will succeed in the long term. This study contributes to policy debates surrounding technological change and decarbonisation in road transport by focusing on the role of evolutionary change processes in the development and commercialisation of new vehicle/fuel configurations, such as technological learning effects captured in niche markets and technology spillovers arising from unrelated sectors such as consumer electronics and power generation. The study draws on a mix of patent analysis, field research and extensive literature surveys to confirm the hypothesis that EVs have greater potential to achieve market dominance, not because of any inherent technical or environmental advantage, but because of their wider scope to link up to such evolutionary change processes. For instance, EV infrastructure can be expanded and optimised incrementally as the number of EVs grows, starting with the large number of households with adequate off-street charging facilities. In contrast, HVs require major ‘initiating’ investments in refuelling networks with few opportunities to leverage existing hydrogen infrastructure. The development of EVs also has greater potential to benefit from technological linkages to power source markets such as consumer electronics, which share a similar requirement for high energy density electricity storage, and from niche and hybrid applications such as ‘commuter’ BEVs and PHEVs, which incentivise market-driven R&D and investments in the EV mobility chain. In summary, the main factor differentiating EVs from HVs is the possibility to realise a systemic transition through small incremental steps, without the need for major decisions or infrastructure and technology developments to be made prior to commercialisation.

Feasibility study of a Great Lakes bioenergy system

A bioenergy production and delivery system built around the Great Lakes St. Lawrence Seaway (GLSLS) transportation corridor was assessed for its ability to mitigate energy security and climate change risks. The land area within 100 km of the GLSLS and associated railway lines was estimated to be capable of producing at least 30 Mt(dry) yr(-1) of lignocellulosic biomass with minimal adverse impacts on food and fibre production. This was estimated to be sufficient to displace all of the coal-fired electricity in Ontario plus more than 620 million L of green diesel (equivalent to 5.3% of diesel consumption in GLSLS provinces). Lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions were 88% and 76% lower than coal-fired power and conventional diesel, respectively. Production costs of $120 MWh(-1) for power and up to $30 GJ(-1) ($1.1 L(-1)) for green diesel were higher than current market prices, but a value for low-carbon energy would narrow the price differential.

Production of Bio-Synthetic Natural Gas in Canada

Large-scale production of renewable synthetic natural gas from biomass (bioSNG) in Canada was assessed for its ability to mitigate energy security and climate change risks. The land area within 100 km of Canada's network of natural gas pipelines was estimated to be capable of producing 67-210 Mt of dry lignocellulosic biomass per year with minimal adverse impacts on food and fiber production. Biomass gasification and subsequent methanation and upgrading were estimated to yield 16,000-61,000 Mm(3) of pipeline-quality gas (equivalent to 16-63% of Canada's current gas use). Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of bioSNG-based electricity were calculated to be only 8.2-10% of the emissions from coal-fired power. Although predicted production costs ($17-21 GJ(-1)) were much higher than current energy prices, a value for low-carbon energy would narrow the price differential. A bioSNG sector could infuse Canada's rural economy with $41-130 billion of investments and create 410,000-1,300,000 jobs while developing a nation-wide low-carbon energy system.

Quantifying South Africa's crude oil import risk: A multi-criteria portfolio model

Abstract A major consequence of South Africa's strong economic growth since the democratic dispensation of 1994 is the rapid increase in domestic demand for oil energy. With small amounts of proven oil reserves, the rise in oil demand as an energy source has resulted in South Africa's growing dependence on external sources for its domestic crude oil needs. High oil prices, instability in major oil producing regions and the rise in ‘oil-nationalism’ are major concerns for the security of South Africa's oil supplies. Accordingly, a comprehensive understanding of oil import security risks can serve as a vital guide in formulating any energy policy framework(s) aimed at alleviating the impact of such risks. This study utilises portfolio theory and develops an empirical framework to provide quantitative measures of systematic and specific risks of South Africa's crude oil imports over the period 1994 to 2007. The paper examines the relationship between supply sources diversification and oil energy security risks, and provides an objective evaluation of different import adjustment strategies on South Africa's total crude oil import risks. The results show that a policy of having constant monthly imports from each supply region reduces the specific and systematic risks of the oil import portfolio by an average rate of 71% and 2.9% respectively. Significant reduction in specific risks of South Africa's oil imports is achieved if imports from risky regions (mainly the Middle East) can be diversified to relatively less risky regions of Europe and North America.

Coal and energy security for India: Role of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS)

Abstract Coal is the abundant domestic energy resource in India and is projected to remain so in future under a business-as-usual scenario. Using domestic coal mitigates national energy security risks. However coal use exacerbates global climate change. Under a strict climate change regime, coal use is projected to decline in future. However this would increase imports of energy sources like natural gas (NG) and nuclear and consequent energy security risks for India. The paper shows that carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) can mitigate CO2 emissions from coal-based large point source (LPS) clusters and therefore would play a key role in mitigating both energy security risks for India and global climate change risks. This paper estimates future CO2 emission projections from LPS in India, identifies the potential CO2 storage types at aggregate level and matches the two into the future using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM/Local model) with a Geographical Information System (GIS) interface. The paper argues that clustering LPS that are close to potential storage sites could provide reasonable economic opportunities for CCS in future if storage sites of different types are further explored and found to have adequate capacity. The paper also indicates possible LPS locations to utilize CCS opportunities economically in future, especially since India is projected to add over 220,000 MW of thermal power generation capacity by 2030.

Long-Term Energy Security Risks for Europe: A Sector-Specific Approach

The aim of the paper is to identify and evaluate existing and potential EU energy supply risks on the basis of a sector-specific approach. Moving away from common generalisations on security of energy supply as well as from those studies that focus only on one sector, it brings together all types of fuel and analyses the risks related to each of them. The result is a comprehensive picture of the energy security challenges faced by the EU in the long-term. The paper can be seen as a tool to avoid overlapping, incoherence and contradictions in the process of assessing security of supply and aims to formulate a consistent and more unified European energy policy. CEPS Working Documents are intended to give an indication of work being conducted within CEPS research programmes and to stimulate reactions from other experts in the field. Unless otherwise indicated, the views expressed are attributable only to the authors in a personal capacity and not to any institution with which they are associated.

Enhancing National Security and Energy Security in the Post-911 Era: Group Decision Support for Strategic Policy Analysis under Conditions of Conflict

Energy source diversity has become a fundamental principle of both US energy security and national security. The decision of whether or not to approve a new power plant facility in the US involves complex group decision and negotiation processes. These contentious, value-laden, and multi-faceted self organizing processes involve many decision makers (broad constituencies) with conflicting priorities and dynamic preferences, high decision stakes, limited technical information (both in terms of quality and quantity), and difficult tradeoffs. As population pressures and energy demands continue to mount, advances in conflict resolution can help to improve power plant siting processes as well as US energy security and national security. Specifically, this paper uses advances in the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution and its associated decision support system (DSS) GMCR II to analyze strategic aspects of a multi-party energy dispute involving the co-management of a shared air shed in the Fraser Lowland Eco-Region based on Sumas Energy 2 (SE2), a contentious power plant project proposed for the US side of the international border between the city of Abbotsford, British Columbia and town of Sumas, Washington. GMCR II provides strategic insights for enhancing energy security, national security, and environmental risk management in the United States.

Facts and Irrelevances Energy Cooperation and Politics Energy Security Risks Climate Change Politics and Economics Emission Targets, Trade and Sequestration Will Innovation and Investment Prosper? Ipcc/Kyoto News and Views the Science Debate Continues Nuclear News Last Words

Facts and Irrelevances Energy Cooperation and Politics Energy Security Risks Climate Change Politics and Economics Emission Targets, Trade and Sequestration Will Innovation and Investment Prosper? Ipcc/Kyoto News and Views the Science Debate Continues Nuclear News Last Words

‘Show Me the Money’: Pre-Requisites and Pitfalls in the Financing of Nuclear New Build

THE CONTEXT OF ENERGY SECURITY RISK In recent years the UK’s energy supplies have been taken for granted, their security a low salience issue that has rarely appeared on the political frontline thanks to established coal stations, the nuclear power fleet, a glut of hydrocarbons from the North Sea, and a rapid growth of CCGT plant. The future, however, is less reassuring. As mature economies the world over are now starting to realise, absolute energy supply security is an illusion, a condition that is unacceptably expensive to guarantee. And, like all major economic cornerstones, energy security is a dynamic concept which, at its heart, is characterised by a complex tension between the mitigation of risks and the achievement of desired benefits at acceptable cost. From a strategic perspective policymakers now must assess the relative probabilities of a range of economic and geopolitical risks and futures and, given the macro-linkages between economic growth and energy consumption, they increasingly need to develop energy ‘hedging’ strategies that are responsive to these drivers and trends. However, without fully understanding the enabling conditions and risks involved in the delivery of a particular policy option, the option cannot be considered strategically viable. Nuclear new build is still very much in this position today.

Long-term security of energy supply and climate change

Security of energy supply and climate change are central concerns for policy makers and important dimensions of the long-term quest for a sustainable global energy system. This paper examines the role of several policy instruments in managing energy security and climate risks and stimulating technological change towards a more secure and climate-benign global energy system in the long-term future. The analysis has been conducted with ERIS, a multi-regional energy-systems “bottom-up” optimization model with technology learning. Our analysis provides some policy insights and identifies synergies and trade-offs relating to the potential for security of supply policies to promote the uptake of new technologies, reduce the cost of pursuing climate change mitigation policies, and facilitate a possible transition to a hydrogen economy.

Diversification and Energy Security Risks: The Japanese Case

This article explores the relationship between diversification and energy security risks. It uses portfolio theory to conceptualise energy security as an insurance mechanism against disruptions to energy import markets. It provides quantitative measures of systematic and specific risks associated with Japanese energy imports during the period 1970—99. It suggests that Japan's policy of diversification of energy import sources has reduced specific risks, although fundamental changes in the political and economic structure of international energy and, in particular, oil markets have also significantly reduced systematic risks. The article concludes that, despite their limitations, portfolio measures provide a much more theoretically and methodologically robust indicator of energy import security than traditional measures of dependence.

98/02189 Chemistry of tar formation and maturation in the thermochemical conversion of biomass

With rapid depletion of fossil fuel reserves and environmental concerns of global warming due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, energy security, and climate change risks have been the most formidable problems before the world today. A quest is on for a renewable and carbon-neutral liquid transportation fuel that can substitute for fossil fuel-derived gasoline and petrol. Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, which can convert synthesis gas into long-chain and branched hydrocarbons, has been a potential answer to these issues. This technology coupled with biomass gasification (which has been very popular means of decentralized electricity generation) offers an even more attractive solution. In this chapter, we review the scientific, technical, and economic aspects of Biomass Gasification Integrated Fischer-Tropsch (BGIFT) synthesis process. We have given a necessary outline of this technology followed by analysis of a coupled process. The overall conclusion is that the hybrid BGIFT process is economically attractive when used for both fuel and electricity production. With rising international prices of crude oil and the carbon mitigation policy in action (GHG pricing), the BGIFT process will provide a viable and sustainable solution for issues of both energy security and climate change.