Competing Pathways for the Decarbonisation of Road Transport: A Comparative Analysis of Electric and Hydrogen Vehicles

Abstract

Both hydrogen and electric vehicles (HVs and EVs) have received widespread attention as key options for decoupling road transport from the environmental and energy security risks posed by climate change and oil dependency. However, considerable uncertainty remains as to which of these technologies will succeed in the long term. This study contributes to policy debates surrounding technological change and decarbonisation in road transport by focusing on the role of evolutionary change processes in the development and commercialisation of new vehicle/fuel configurations, such as technological learning effects captured in niche markets and technology spillovers arising from unrelated sectors such as consumer electronics and power generation. The study draws on a mix of patent analysis, field research and extensive literature surveys to confirm the hypothesis that EVs have greater potential to achieve market dominance, not because of any inherent technical or environmental advantage, but because of their wider scope to link up to such evolutionary change processes. For instance, EV infrastructure can be expanded and optimised incrementally as the number of EVs grows, starting with the large number of households with adequate off-street charging facilities. In contrast, HVs require major ‘initiating’ investments in refuelling networks with few opportunities to leverage existing hydrogen infrastructure. The development of EVs also has greater potential to benefit from technological linkages to power source markets such as consumer electronics, which share a similar requirement for high energy density electricity storage, and from niche and hybrid applications such as ‘commuter’ BEVs and PHEVs, which incentivise market-driven R&D and investments in the EV mobility chain. In summary, the main factor differentiating EVs from HVs is the possibility to realise a systemic transition through small incremental steps, without the need for major decisions or infrastructure and technology developments to be made prior to commercialisation.