Energy Security In China Research Articles

Spatial and Temporal Variations in Offshore Crude Oil Transportation: Insights From China's Coastal Ports

ABSTRACTAnalyzing the spatial and temporal variations of offshore crude oil transportation at China's coastal ports is critical for the country's energy security. The automatic identification system provides high‐resolution real‐time data on China's offshore crude oil transportation, offering more precise spatial and temporal insights than existing statistical studies. In this study, we propose a novel method for calculating offshore crude oil transportation volumes by considering the operational status of crude oil tankers as “empty” or “full.” This approach enhances reliability and provides detailed port‐level transport data. Our findings reveal notable similarities between the centrality measures of maritime oil transportation and oil tanker networks, but significant differences in community divisions. Specifically, in the tanker networks, Chinese ports are categorized into three regions, with one region being dominant and the other two regions containing only four ports. In contrast, the oil flow networks show China divided into two major regions and two minor ones. This study offers valuable contributions to strengthening energy security in China and supports informed policy development and implementation.

Study on the Pathway of Energy Transition in Inner Mongolia under the "Dual Carbon" Goal

As an important strategic energy base in China, Inner Mongolia's energy exports are dominated by coal and electricity. Under the background of "double carbon" target, the energy transition of Inner Mongolia is of great significance to China’s energy security and carbon emission reduction. Based on the energy policy simulation model (EPS model), this paper explores the path of energy transition in Inner Mongolia by constructing the scenarios of developing renewable energy, developing CCS technology and carbon pricing, and simulating the policy situation based on the reality of Inner Mongolia and the energy transition experience of developed countries and regions. The results show that (1) The energy production and power generation under the development of renewable energy scenario (RE) and carbon pricing scenario (CP) are lower than the "Business as usual" scenario (BAU) for a certain period of time, which affects China's energy security. However, by 2060, power generation and energy production under both scenarios exceed the BAU scenario, and the energy production structure is dominated by renewable energy in both cases. (2) If the Inner Mongolia government focuses on short-term carbon emission reduction, the government should actively promote the establishment of a carbon emission trading market and increase the use of renewable energy through the improvement of the carbon pricing mechanism to promote carbon emission reduction in Inner Mongolia. If the Inner Mongolia government focuses on long-term energy supply stability, it should vigorously develop CCS technology.

The role of green ammonia in meeting challenges towards a sustainable development in China

The shift to a sustainable development has become an important issue in China. This paper discusses the role of green ammonia in promoting China's energy, environmental and economic sustainability which has not drawn enough attention. First, key challenges in China's energy transition, decarbonisation and regional sustainable development are explored. The coal-dominated energy consumption has placed great obstacles in achieving energy transition and led to massive CO2 emission since the large-scale industrialization. The high dependency on oil and gas import has threatened China's energy security. Imbalanced and unsustainable regional development is identified with data envelopment analysis. Second, the potential of green ammonia in meeting these challenges is analysed. Ammonia is examined to be a flexible and economic option for large-scale hydrogen transport and storage. Co-firing ammonia in coal power generation at 3 % rate is evaluated as an option for achieving low-carbon transition by 2030. Benefits of developing a green ammonia economy is discussed from energy, environmental and economic aspects. The practice can decline fossil energy consumption, enhance energy security, and facilitate renewable energy delivery and storage, industry decarbonisation, and regional development. We assume the findings and results contribute to addressing sustainability challenges and realizing a hydrogen economy in China.

New Energy Demonstration City Policy and Green Innovation of New Energy Enterprises——A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on Green Patent Applications of Listed Companies in China

The innovation and development of the new energy industry is crucial to guaranteeing China's energy security, promoting high-quality economic development and alleviating the global climate crisis. New Energy Demonstration City Policy (NEDC) is one of the important policies to promote the development of the new energy industry in China. Academic research on their green innovation effect on new energy enterprises and the explanation of their influence mechanism still needs to be deepened. This paper utilizes panel data from listed companies in China spanning from 2011 to 2019 and employs the triple difference method to empirically investigate the impact of NEDC on the green innovation of new energy enterprises. Findings of the study are as follows: (1) The implementation of NEDC significantly promotes green innovation among new energy enterprises, a conclusion that holds true under a series of robustness tests; (2) Further analysis suggests that, from the perspective of patent heterogeneity, the "incremental" manifestation of this policy effect is more pronounced; (3) From the perspective of ownership heterogeneity, distinct from state-owned enterprises, the promotion of green innovation among private new energy enterprises is notably significant under the policy; (4) Mechanism analysis reveals that NEDC can alter the ways in which new energy enterprises acquire and utilize funds, thereby increasing R&D investment and facilitating green innovation. The research conclusions of this paper bear certain policy implications, providing theoretical foundations and empirical references for government departments to optimize and promote NEDC.

Can high-quality energy development and energy security achieve a win-win situation? The case of China

As the world shifts towards low-carbon energy, many countries are improving energy development by promoting renewable sources such as solar photovoltaics and wind power. Does the promotion of these sources align with the objectives of energy security development? In other words, will it improve energy security? To this end, we use a provincial panel data set of 30 provinces in China from 2007 to 2019 to explore the potential impact of the high-quality energy development (HED) process on energy security, and conduct a series of robustness tests. The results indicate that HED can effectively promote China's energy security, implying that HED and energy security can achieve a win-win situation. In addition, we conduct the asymmetry analysis to establish the extent to which HED influences energy security under different energy security levels, which provides a blueprint for China's energy development paths. Finally, some policy recommendations are highlighted for improving China's energy development level to a reasonable extent and formulating relevant energy security policies.

Will carbon neutrality alleviate China's energy security concerns? – The strategic importance of critical metals in batteries

How carbon neutrality may reshape energy security concerns weighs greatly for all major energy-importing countries, including China. Large-scale electrification and energy transition as a crucial pathway will potentially alter the strategic importance of different resources. This study examines three key battery-related metals – lithium, cobalt, and nickel – in China's carbon-neutral future by calculating their foreign dependency ratios and import costs and then comparing them with those of oil and natural gas. Scenario analysis shows that China's foreign dependency ratios of the metals could exceed 80% in many scenarios in 2030 and 2050 with import costs possibly reaching USD 135 billion in 2030 and USD 265 billion in 2050. Their strategic importance in 2050, as represented by import costs, can be equivalent to the average level during 2016–2020 for oil and natural gas if unfavorable conditions happen simultaneously, specifically high metal intensity, low recycling rates, and high metal prices. Hence for China, carbon neutrality might swap conventional energy security concerns with new ones, especially considering the much higher geographic concentration of metal imports. Nevertheless, their foreign dependency could also be substantially reduced or even completely avoided in low-demand scenarios with optimistic recycling rates.

Exploring energy security in China: our distance to energy justice

Energy justice serves as a pivotal factor in the global shift towards energy transition. A comprehensive evaluation of energy security necessitates the integration of energy justice principles. Accordingly, this study introduces an energy security index (ESI) from the perspective of energy justice and assesses the energy security of 30 provinces in mainland China. The analysis, covering data from 2001 to 2020, explores the spatiotemporal variations of ESI across these provinces. It also examines their spatial relationships and clustering tendencies using Moran's I analysis. The findings indicate that, when viewed through the lens of energy justice, the majority of provinces display a low ESI, characterized by modest enhancements and persistent low-value conditions from 2001 to 2020. This trend primarily results from the inadequate emphasis on justice components in China's energy transition and the continuous failure to significantly boost regional energy supply capabilities. Additionally, this study highlights significant spatial disparities and positive correlations in ESI values across provinces. Regions abundant in resources tend to register higher ESI values, whereas resource-scarce but economically advanced areas show lower values. These insights are crucial for the formulation and adaptation of differentiated energy strategies, especially those focused on achieving energy justice and fostering a balance between regional energy supply and demand.

The security of energy import: Do economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk really matter?

Examining the roles of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR) in energy import (EI) is vital to ensuring energy security in China. The exploration utilises the TVP-SV-VAR methodology to seize the time-varying connection among EPU, GPR and EI. In light of the quantitative discussion, we discover that EPU exerts an adverse effect on EI, emphasising that the uncertainties in economic policies would reduce energy imports in China, which conforms to the theoretical hypothesis. GPR had a favourable impact on EI before COVID-19, primarily due to the changes in energy prices and diversification of imports, which turned negative after this epidemic because of economic recovery and more severe geopolitical events, which is not perfectly consistent with the qualitative analysis. Besides, the exploration replaces EI with oil import (OI) and ascertains the robustness of the reported conclusion. By comparing, the influences from EPU and GPR on coal import (CI) and natural gas import (NGI) are entirely different from OI primarily due to the substitution effect and geopolitical property. In the increasingly challenging economic and political environment context, the exploration will offer significant lessons for China to ensure the security of energy imports.

Research on the security of natural gas supply and demand in China under the dual carbon target.

The security of natural gas supply is not only an important part of China's energy security, it also serves as a basic guarantee for China to achieve its dual carbon target and energy transition. Therefore, it is very important to conduct research on the security of China's natural gas supply and demand in the context of the dual carbon target. This paper develops a system dynamics (SD) model for natural gas demand forecasting and a generalized Weng's model for production forecasting to predict China's natural gas demand and production under different scenarios during 2022-2060, and then analyzes China's natural gas supply and demand situation and potential import and external dependence based on the forecast results. The simulation results show that (1) under the two demand scenarios D1 and D2, China's natural gas demand will peak at 766.02 billion m3 in 2046 and 708.07 billion m3 in 2036 and decline to 521.65 billion m3 and 278.99 billion m3 in 2060 respectively; (2) under the two production scenarios S1 and S2, China's natural gas production will peak at 344.581 billion m3 in 2042 and 366.341 billion m3 in 2043 and decrease to about 250 billion m3 in 2060; (3) before 2035, the security of natural gas supply in China will face a challenging situation, the total volume of potential gas imports will gradually increase to about 350 billion m3, and China's dependence on natural gas imports will exceed 50%; after 2035, the progress of China's energy transition will improve the security of its natural gas supply. This paper proposes four recommendations for expanding gas demand in the near to medium term, promoting conventional and unconventional gas production, diversifying import channels and building emergency reserves to ensure China's gas supply security and enable gas to play a "bridging" role in the energy transition.

Does the short-selling mechanism improve energy security? Evidence from China.

Reducing carbon emissions and improving energy efficiency are essential to respond to global climate change actively. However, improving energy security under resource and environmental constraints is the key for China to achieve high-quality and sustainable development. Thus, using the panel data at the enterprises and regional levels in China from 2013 to 2020, this research develops an energy security index to study the impact of the short-selling mechanism on energy security. The results show that China's energy security is generally on the rise under the short-selling mechanism. However, it has different degrees of impact on energy security in different energy structures, supply chains, and environments. In addition, China's energy security has a regional spillover effect under the short-selling mechanism's capital pressure and supervision governance. This paper also finds that short-selling can alleviate the supply chain's bullwhip effect and risk effect. Finally, the short-selling mechanism complements the micro-influence mechanism of energy security, and short-selling positively impacts China's energy security.

Examining the multiple impacts of renewable energy development on redefined energy security in China: A panel quantile regression approach

The increasing generation of renewable energy and its concurrent technological innovation are driving the transformations of the energy sector, but little effort has been made at the regional level to specify the heterogeneous impacts of different types of renewable energy development on multi-dimensional energy security. Therefore, this paper establishes a four-dimensional energy security assessment system based on the current energy market situation and economic context of China. Renewable energy generation and technological innovation were simultaneously used as the core proxies for renewable energy development. Then, the panel quantile regression method was used to analyze the heterogeneity of the impact of solar, hydro, and wind energy on energy security, covering 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2019. The empirical results show that renewable energy power generation generally promotes energy security, but it cannot be effectively applicable to all levels of energy security. Renewable energy technology innovation has surprisingly hindered energy security. These results can serve as a policy and practical guide, suggesting that provincial governments in China should implement energy security and renewable energy policies in line with local characteristics.

The contribution of green finance to energy security in the construction of new energy system: Empirical research from China

Previous studies have discussed theoretically the role of green finance in energy security, but empirical studies have yet to explore their relationship. In order to make up for this deficiency, we first measured the development level of green finance and the comprehensive score of energy security in China from 2000 to 2020. Then, we constructed a vector error correction model based on the cointegration relationship. The results show a stable cointegration relationship between the long-term variables, and the improvement of the development level of green finance is conducive to ensuring China's energy security. However, from the results of the short-term dynamic adjustment effect, the change in green finance development level has no significant impact on the change in energy security level because the role of green finance has a specific time lag. Further, through impulse response analysis, it is found that when the development level of green finance has a unit positive impact, energy security will produce a first negative and then positive response. The variance decomposition results show that the contribution of green finance to energy security first weakens and then gradually increases. To sum up, the long-term development of green finance will help stabilize China's energy security. Therefore, this study proposes strengthening supervision over green finance, developing “new energy + green finance”, achieving positive interaction between green finance and transformational finance, and enabling green finance with digital technology.

The impact of geopolitical risk on energy security: Evidence from a GMM panel VAR approach

Energy security plays a crucial role in a country's long-term economic development. This study investigates the impact of geopolitical risks on energy security in China by employing a panel VAR model, and using provincial panel data from 1994 to 2021. The findings reveal that the relationship between geopolitical risk and energy security is dynamic and inconsistently negative. Notably, variations in regional resource endowments within China contribute to varying levels of susceptibility to geopolitical risks. Specifically, the eastern region demonstrates heightened sensitivity, experiencing significant impacts, while the western region is comparatively less affected. This study recommends Maintaining stable geopolitical risks will improve regional energy security. In addition, promoting renewable energy will also enhance national energy security. This study suggests the fluctuating relationship between geopolitical risks and energy, and suggests strengthening industrial transformation and renewable energy utilization to improve energy security.

Spatial evolution and decomposition of energy-related CO2 emissions in China's mining industry: from the perspective of regional heterogeneity.

To ensure China's energy security, the mining industry faces increasing emissions reduction and energy conservation pressures. This study combined index and production-theoretical decomposition analyses to decompose the energy-related CO2 emissions in mining industry (ERCEMI) influencing factors into seven major effects and adopted a gravity model to dynamically visualize the transfer path and gravity distribution from 2000 to 2015. As investment effects were introduced into the decomposition analysis, the results fully considered the regional heterogeneity and spatiotemporal dynamics. The main findings were as follows: (i) a typical heavy emissions trend along the Heihe-Tengchong line, with a concentration of large ERCEMI values; (ii) the gravity center of ERCEMI had shifted to the southwest, and the migration trends were divided into three stages; (iii) the ERCEMI had strong regional heterogeneity, with a diffusion trend from north to south and shrinking from east to west; (iv) the potential energy intensity and investment efficiency effects had significantly inhibited the ERCEMI, while the investment scale had boosted it. Implications for regional layouts, energy intensity reductions, and investment optimization are discussed. This research provides a comprehensive regional analysis for ERCEMI reductions and the sustainable development of the mining industry and provides a reference for local industrial development planning.

A system dynamic model for natural gas safety supply and demand balance mechanism

AbstractThe security of natural gas supply and demand has always been an important topic, and as a result, analyzing and predicting the supply and demand of natural gas has received considerable attention from researchers. Numerous studies have extensively researched the supply and demand of natural gas. The main purpose of this study is to explore the supply‐demand balance mechanism for natural gas security. A system dynamics model is constructed to assess the supply and demand of natural gas in Sichuan Province, China. A new system dynamics model based on domestic gas, production gas, ecological environment and natural gas supply is proposed. The study considers four scenarios: natural development, economic priority development, environmental priority development and coordinated development. The results show that the rapid economic development has led to an excessive environmental carrying capacity, a larger gap between natural gas supply and demand, a decline in the quality of life of residents, and even affected the energy security of Sichuan Province and China. The findings also show that people's overprotection of the environment can lead to slow economic development, which prevents it from achieving its desired goals. The coordinated development scenario in this paper not only ensures the production of natural gas and the quality of life of residents, but also is an optimal scheme with low energy consumption and pollution. According to the research conclusions, considering the overall situation of China's energy security and the situation in Sichuan Province, the author proposes reforms from the supply and demand sides of natural gas.

Quantitative evaluation of China's energy security policy under the background of intensifying geopolitical conflicts: Based on PMC model

Under the background of escalating global geopolitical conflicts, how to ensure energy security has become a topic in the world. China is the largest energy consumer with high dependence on foreign energy. In order to safeguard energy security, Chinese government has issued a series of energy security policies. This paper takes 14 energy security policies issued by Chinese government from 2014 to 2023 as research object, designs an evaluation index system of energy security policies, and then uses Policy Modeling Consistency (PMC) index model to evaluate energy security policies. The findings are as follows: First, the average PMC index value of 14 energy security policies is 6.96, and the evaluation grade is good. Second, the higher administrative level of energy security policy subjects, the higher PMC index. Third, among 14 energy security policies, 1 policy is evaluated as perfect rating, 7 policies are evaluated as excellent rating, 4 policies are evaluated as good rating, 2 policies are evaluated as bad rating. Fourth, among 10 first-level index of energy security policy evaluation, the values of policy subject (Q6), policy timeliness (Q3), policy incentive (Q7) and policy object (Q8) are relatively low. Finally, based on the research findings, this paper proposes targeted policy recommendations to improve the quality of China's energy security policy.

An outlook analysis on China's natural gas consumption forecast by 2035: Applying a seasonal forecasting method

The proposed targets to achieve peak carbon before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060 would require China to accelerate the development of natural gas infrastructure. The forecasted future of natural gas consumption in China will not only help learn about the future usage of natural gas but also guide government departments to conduct more scientific planning and management of natural gas production and pipeline channels. Therefore, this paper fully considers the characteristics of natural gas consumption affected by seasonal factors and uses the 2018–2021 quarterly natural gas consumption time-series data to analyze whether natural gas consumption contains trends and seasonality. It is noticeable that seasons impact China's natural gas consumption, so the moving average method is applied to calculate the seasonal index. Based on this, China's natural gas consumption from 2022 to 2035 is forecasted. As results show, China's gas consumption will continue to grow over the next 14 years but at a slower rate. By 2035, it will double from the 2021 level, reaching 765.4 billion cubic meters, but the growth rate will drop to below 4%, entering a period of low growth. Finally, the paper illustrates current situation of natural gas development combined with rationalized suggestions for future natural gas production and energy security in China.

Thoughts on the development of CO2-EGR under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality

In September 2020, the Chinese government proposed the goals to reach carbon dioxide emissions peak by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 (“two-carbon goals”). This brings opportunities to the development and application of CO2-enhanced gas recovery (CO2-EGR) in China. To obtain an overall understanding of the development of CO2-EGR under the two-carbon goals, this paper analyzes the significance, potential, status quo and challenges of CO2-EGR, and makes suggestions on the development of CO2-EGR in China. The research results are obtained as follows. First, the development of CO2-EGR plays a crucial role in ensuring China's energy security, accelerating the construction of the clean energy system to promote energy transition and realizing the two-carbon goals as early as possible. Second, China should clarify a path for CO2-EGR development, build a spatial layout of CO2-EGR, and promote digital inclusion in CO2-EGR, enhance the emission reduction role of CO2-EGR in the multi-energy complementary system, boost large scale application of renewable energy and deep decarbonization in the traditional coal industry, which is difficult to reduce carbon emissions. Third, China should draw lessons from European and American tax credit and innovation funds policies to accelerate the construction of a CO2-EGR policy support system. Fourth, China should carry out research on key CO2-EGR technologies to accelerate the construction of a CO2-EGR methodology and standard system and promote rapid and standardized development of the CO2-EGR industry. It is suggested to establish a CO2-EGR demonstration area in the Sichuan Basin and popularize it across China, so as to improve comprehensive economic benefits through the establishment of large-scale industrial clusters. It is concluded that the two-carbon goals bring opportunities to the development of CO2-EGR in China, which will promote gas production and demonstration of CO2 sequestration in gas reservoirs and have positive significance in ensuring energy security and realizing carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China.

Will the carbon neutrality target impact China's energy security? A dynamic Bayesian network model

Efforts to reach the target of carbon neutrality create uncertainty about future energy security in China. This paper predicts the future state of energy security on the path to achieving carbon neutrality. A dynamic Bayesian network model is proposed to describe the dynamic causal relationship between China's energy security and its influencing indicators, including a carbon neutrality factor. The results reveal that, under the carbon neutrality scenario, energy security is expected to be in a Poor state in 2030, with improvement to a Poor+ state in 2040, 2050, and 2060. The energy security state is expected to remain in a Poor state in 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060 under the existing policy scenario. Carbon neutrality has a small negative impact on energy security in the short term, and a positive impact in the long term. The energy security state is not expected to be fundamentally improved under carbon neutrality scenario because the four dimensions of energy security may not achieve balanced development. These dimensions include availability, applicability, acceptability, and affordability. Crude oil distillation capacity, crude oil price, and coal price are expected to have the greatest impact on energy security.

ASSESSING IMPACTS OF ENERGY TRANSITION ON ENERGY SECURITY OF CHINA: STRATEGIES AND CHALLENGES

This study pioneers in quantitatively evaluating policies and commercial strategies of China to facilitate its coal-to-gas transition, concerning their impacts on energy security, especially for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import dependency and cost-effectiveness. An econometric approach is developed to examine the impacts of natural gas domestic production expansions, pipeline import expansions, and LNG price volatilities on LNG import. Empirical evidence reveals two challenges: (1) insufficient growth in domestic gas production to substitute and reduce import volumes via LNG shipping; (2) under increased import prices from major spot markets, LNG import volumes continued increasing, which implies cost ineffectiveness.