Quantitative evaluation of China's energy security policy under the background of intensifying geopolitical conflicts: Based on PMC model

Abstract

Under the background of escalating global geopolitical conflicts, how to ensure energy security has become a topic in the world. China is the largest energy consumer with high dependence on foreign energy. In order to safeguard energy security, Chinese government has issued a series of energy security policies. This paper takes 14 energy security policies issued by Chinese government from 2014 to 2023 as research object, designs an evaluation index system of energy security policies, and then uses Policy Modeling Consistency (PMC) index model to evaluate energy security policies. The findings are as follows: First, the average PMC index value of 14 energy security policies is 6.96, and the evaluation grade is good. Second, the higher administrative level of energy security policy subjects, the higher PMC index. Third, among 14 energy security policies, 1 policy is evaluated as perfect rating, 7 policies are evaluated as excellent rating, 4 policies are evaluated as good rating, 2 policies are evaluated as bad rating. Fourth, among 10 first-level index of energy security policy evaluation, the values of policy subject (Q6), policy timeliness (Q3), policy incentive (Q7) and policy object (Q8) are relatively low. Finally, based on the research findings, this paper proposes targeted policy recommendations to improve the quality of China's energy security policy.