Energy Security Assessment Research Articles

Dynamic model based on Bayesian method for energy security assessment

The methodology for the dynamic indicator model construction and forecasting of indicators for the assessment of energy security level is presented in this article. An indicator is a special index, which provides numerical values to important factors for the investigated area. In real life, models of different processes take into account various factors that are time-dependent and dependent on each other. Thus, it is advisable to construct a dynamic model in order to describe these dependences. The energy security indicators are used as factors in the dynamic model. Usually, the values of indicators are obtained from statistical data. The developed dynamic model enables to forecast indicators’ variation taking into account changes in system configuration. The energy system development is usually based on a new object construction. Since the parameters of changes of the new system are not exactly known, information about their influences on indicators could not be involved in the model by deterministic methods. Thus, dynamic indicators’ model based on historical data is adjusted by probabilistic model with the influence of new factors on indicators using the Bayesian method.

Coherent or inconsistent? Assessing energy security and climate policy interaction within the European Union

Energy security has become a key priority in the European Union's (EU) policy. However, climate change mitigation commitments run in parallel. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the extent to which the EU's climate change mitigation and energy security policies are coherent. The relationship is far from clear-cut, as both areas are complex and wide-ranging. We use a simple assessment framework, which juxtaposes the main components of the two policy domains and characterizes the interactions between them. Our assessment shows that there is general coherence between several policy subfields, but a number of policy interactions require policy-makers’ attention. The coherence between energy security and climate mitigation policies will depend on ancillary policy measures and the evolution of external drivers, such as global gas markets. Furthermore, the future outlook of how the EU's energy policy will affect climate change mitigation and vice versa will depend on how the future energy security agenda is framed. A move to a nationally fragmented energy security frame would lead to greater policy conflicts, while a coordinated European energy security frame could increase policy coherence.

A Policy-oriented Approach to Energy Security

Modern energy systems are increasingly complex and face ever-changing demands. As energy markets become increasingly global and interdependent, the issues affecting energy systems have also increased in number and complexity. Geopolitical events, natural disasters, severe weather, public acceptance of energy activities, increasingly automated and integrated energy systems, and the impact of climate change are just some of the factors impacting on energy systems. Consequently, the assessment of risks, threats and vulnerabilities in energy systems has become more urgent and more challenging.Studies of energy security have been criticized on various grounds, including that they employ a narrow conception of energy security and rarely use a systematic approach. Various conceptual models have been proposed to evaluate energy security but are usually limited to the effect of supply disruptions. There are few examples of models that clearly define the broad range of risks faced by contemporary, complex energy systems.This paper seeks to address these issues by taking a broader, policy-oriented approach to the factors affecting modern energy systems. We employ a complex systems perspective in conceptualizing the energy system and a more comprehensive approach to identifying risks, threats and vulnerabilities for energy security assessment purposes.

Energy mix optimization from an energy security perspective

In this article, an integrated methodology is presented to assess an optimal mix and perspective development of energy generation technologies not only by technical, economic or other criteria, but also from an energy security perspective. The energy security is evaluated in terms of energy system resistance to disturbances. The methodology comprises several models, such as a stochastic model of energy systems disturbance parameters, economic-optimization model of energy systems functioning, metric and analysis techniques of energy security. The perspective development and functioning of the energy systems with stochastic disturbances is modelled using economic-optimization model with the development of different energy generation technologies. An open source energy modelling system is used as a tool for this model. The concept of energy security coefficient, which is calculated to assess energy security in terms of energy price increase and the amounts of unsupplied energy due to the disturbance consequences, is presented in the article as well.The developed methodology is applied to the case study of the reference energy system. Its various development scenarios with different energy generation technologies are analysed according to the share of technologies in the energy production. Scenarios are simulated in the stochastic environment of various disturbances and results are obtained in terms of variation of energy security coefficient over time by comparing scenarios from the energy security point of view. Finally, the results of the development scenarios are discussed, threshold shares in the energy production and optimal mix of energy generation technologies in terms of energy security are proposed, limitations of the case study are identified and some general conclusions are given.

Quantifying, measuring, and strategizing energy security: Determining the most meaningful dimensions and metrics

Various metrics exist for energy security assessment along with a diffuse array of different strategies for improving national performance. These independent and interacted metrics overlap, however, and are rarely considered systematically. The objective of this study is to translate often subjective concepts of energy security into more objective criteria, to investigate the cause-effect relationships among these different metrics, and to provide some recommendations for the stakeholders to draft efficacious measures for enhancing energy security. To accomplish this feat, the study utilizes a DEMATEL (Fuzzy Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) methodology to analyze collected data, reveal cause-effect relationships, and prioritize energy security strategies. To apply our theoretical results in practice, we include a brief case study of China. We conclude that the availability and affordability dimensions of energy security are most impactful to a nation's overall energy security, and that the promotion of renewable energy and diversification are compelling national energy security strategies, both for China and other countries.

Assessment of energy security in China based on ecological network analysis: A perspective from the security of crude oil supply

Energy security usually considers both the stability of energy supply and security of energy use and it is receiving increasing attention globally. Considering the strategic importance and sensitivity to international change of the crude oil supply, we decided to examine China’s energy security. An original network model was established based on ecological network analysis to holistically evaluate the security of the crude oil supply in China. Using this model, we found that the security of the crude oil supply in China generally increased from 2001 to 2010. The contribution of different compartments in the network to the overall energy security resembled a pyramid structure, with supply sources at the bottom, the consumption sector at the top, and the refining and transfer sectors in the middle. North and South America made the largest contribution to the security of the crude oil supply in China. We provide suggestions to improve the security of the crude oil supply in China based on our results and further scenario analysis. The original network model provides a new perspective for energy security assessment, which can be used as a baseline to develop other models and policy.

An assessment of energy security in Thailand’s power generation

Presently, electricity power generation in Thailand mainly relies on natural gas approximately 70% of the total primary energy demand. Furthermore, around 37% of the total natural gas consumption is imported from neighboring countries. The Thai government developed a new power development plan in 2010 (PDP) to strengthen its energy security due to excessive reliance on natural gas for electricity generation and mitigate CO2 emissions by planning to install new nuclear power plants by 2030. Particularly after the nuclear power disaster in Fukushima, Japan in 2011, public opinion remains in opposition with nuclear technology, raising issues concerning the feasibility of this potential energy source.It is found that an intensive coal power plants scenario is the highest emission of CO2 per kWh and its electricity unit cost is higher than PDP about 7.35%. If nuclear and new coal power plants cannot be implemented according to PDP plan, a renewable energy scenario is possible. This option not only strengthens the energy security, but it significantly mitigates the intensity of CO2 emission per kWh higher than PDP about 7.14%. However, this only can be achieved by increasing the electricity unit cost by 14% compared to the price estimated by the 2010 PDP.

A systemic approach to assessing energy security in a low-carbon EU energy system

Until now, the complex relationship between energy security and climate change has been addressed using a partial understanding of security, one that is based on simplified indicators such as import dependence or fuel mix diversity. As a consequence, the synergies and trade-offs between climate change and energy security policies have not been systematically explored according to a wider understanding of the latter concept. The purpose of this article is to resolve the resulting knowledge gap by proposing a theoretical approach to energy security that is consistent with its multi-dimensional nature, taking into account the whole energy supply chain. Five key ‘systemic’ properties of energy security will be identified – namely, stability, flexibility, adequacy, resilience and robustness. The paper proposes a novel framework to assess energy security and uses this framework to develop a comprehensive approach to the interactions between climate change policies and energy security. The impact of a low-carbon scenario on one of these five properties (long-term robustness) will be assessed using a complex multi-regional energy system model. The results demonstrate how this scenario induces structural changes along the whole energy supply chain, revealing dynamic vulnerabilities and trade-offs that are not adequately accounted for by existing indicator-based assessments. Finally, the paper provides solid foundations for further analysis of these trade-offs using more detailed sectoral models.

Impact of the Renewable Energy Sources on the Energy Security

Reliable electricity and heat production as well as related issues are one of the components of the energy security. Considerable part of general energy sector consists of renewable energy sources, such as wind, photovoltaic (PV), biofuel and hydro. Thus, it is important to assess which renewable resources in the most efficient way should be used and which part of the subsequent energy sector should be covered by energy system of renewable energy sources.In the context of renewable resources the key criteria assessing energy security are the amount of unsupplied energy and the price increase of supplied energy for all possible disturbance cases. Various scenarios of renewable energy sources usage are analyzed in the article that help to predict which one of the scenarios would be the “best” in terms of the energy security and provides a possibility to forecast perspective development of the energy sector.

Global energy security under different climate policies, GDP growth rates and fossil resource availabilities

Energy security is one of the main drivers of energy policies. Understanding energy security implications of long-term scenarios is crucial for informed policy making, especially with respect to transformations of energy systems required to stabilize climate change. This paper evaluates energy security under several global energy scenarios, modeled in the REMIND and WITCH integrated assessment models. The paper examines the effects of long-term climate policies on energy security under different assumptions about GDP growth and fossil fuel availability. It uses a systematic energy security assessment framework and a set of global and regional indicators for risks associated with energy trade and resilience associated with diversity of energy options. The analysis shows that climate policies significantly reduce the risks and increase the resilience of energy systems in the first half of the century. Climate policies also make energy supply, energy mix, and energy trade less dependent upon assumptions of fossil resource availability and GDP growth, and thus more predictable than in the baseline scenarios.

Methodology for quantitatively assessing the energy security of Malaysia and other southeast Asian countries

This paper presents a methodology for quantitatively assessing energy security. The methodology is tailored to suit the limited data availability of Malaysia and other Southeast Asian countries. In this methodology, energy security is conceptualized as having 5 core aspects which sub-divide into 13 elements. A total of 35 indicators have been identified as measurements of these 13 elements. The methodology details the means by which the indicator results are converted into a common unit i.e. a normalization process into a 0-to-1 scale. Also detailed are the weights used in the weighted-average process by which normalized indicators are synthesized into composite scores representing the 13 elements, the 5 core aspects, and 1 overall energy security index.

Energy Security Assessment: A Review

Facing with increasingly serious problems such as energy depletion, global warming, world economic depression, and even political fluctuation, energy security gradually became a global concerned issue. Correspondingly, many studies on energy security have been conducted. Focusing on energy security assessment, a review is presented in this paper, covering the definition of energy security, assessment indicators of energy security, and assessment cases at different scales. It is concluded that a systematic model is required to simulate the energy system in a holistic way and to establish more objective and comprehensive indicators of energy security. The review is hopeful to shed light on the development of energy security study in the future.

Evaluating energy security in the Asia-Pacific region: A novel methodological approach

This paper establishes an ‘energy security assessment instrument’ based on a new and expanded conceptualisation of energy security. The instrument is a systematic interrogative tool for evaluating energy security of individual states or regions. It consists of eleven broad energy security dimensions associated with the current global energy system. These energy security dimensions take into account numerous quantitative and qualitative attributes of each country’s energy security and policy, and include both traditional energy security concerns and many new factors, such as environmental, socio-cultural and technological. Another dimension, largely absent from previous analyses, is the existence of, and the issues addressed in, energy security policy in each country. This instrument serves as an assessment system with which to evaluate energy security in the Asia-Pacific region. The existing studies on energy security in the Asia-Pacific region suffer from serious limitations. No study to date examines regional energy security policies by adopting a more comprehensive energy security definition as a starting point. Most studies also focus on a single country or issue. Even if they examine energy security in major regional economies, they lack critical comparative analysis. The instrument is valuable as it may be utilised to draw a comprehensive map of regional energy security situation, which can also include comparative analysis of energy security characteristics across the Asia-Pacific region. Ultimately, it may be utilised to set up a framework for improved regional energy cooperation with the aim of providing regional leaders with a blueprint for improving regional energy security and policy.

Measuring the energy security implications of fossil fuel resource concentration

Economic assessments of the welfare effects of energy insecurity are typically uncertain and fail to provide clear guidance to policy makers. As a result, governments have had little analytical support to complement expert judgment in the assessment of energy security. This is likely to be inadequate when considering multiple policy goals, and in particular the intersections between energy security and climate change mitigation policies. This paper presents an alternative approach which focuses on gauging the causes of energy insecurity as a way to assist policy making. The paper focuses on the energy security implications of fossil fuel resource concentration and distinguishes between the price and physical availability components of energy insecurity. It defines two separate indexes: the energy security price index (ESPI), based on the measure of market concentration in competitive fossil fuel markets, and the energy security physical availability index (ESPAI), based on the measure of supply flexibility in regulated markets. The paper illustrates the application of ESPI and ESPAI with two case studies—France and the United Kingdom—looking at the evolution of both indexes to 2030.

Can the United States Shed Its Oil Addiction

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Additional informationNotes on contributorsJosef BramlJosef Braml is editor-in-chief of the Yearbook on International Relations at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) in Berlin. DGAP's newly designed and upcoming Yearbook is a global assessment of energy and environmental security. He may be reached at braml@dgap.org

The Economics of Exhaustible Resources

The discussion is confined in scope to absolutely irreplaceable assets. Topics include peculiar problems of mineral wealth, free competition, maximum social value and state regulation, monopoly, value of a mine monopoly, retardation of production under monopoly, price effects from cumulated production, and the author's mathematically derived optimum solutions. (PCS)