Energy Policy Scenarios Research Articles

Thermo-Economic Assessment of a Olive Pomace Gasifier for Cogeneration Applications

Abstract A thermo-economic analysis of a combined heat and power (CHP) plant fed by syngas produced through the gasification of dry olive pomace is presented. The plant is composed by a 800 kWt downdraft gasifier, a gas clean-up system, a 200 kWe microturbine (MGT) and a heat recovery system to cogenerate hot water. Surplus heat is used to dry olive pomace from 50% to 17% wb moisture content. The plant is modeled in ASPEN Plus. Real data from experimental tests are used to calibrate the gasifier model, while the technical specification and performance of the CHP plant are collected from commercial plants in operation and data from manufacturers. Mass and energy balances are reported throughout the paper. The thermodynamic simulation of the biomass gasifier coupled to the MGT, the thermal and electrical conversion efficiency and temperature of cogenerated heat available are also presented. A thermo-economic assessment is then proposed, to investigate the economic profitability of this small scale CHP plant in the Italian energy policy scenario and considering the subsidies available for renewable electricity in the form of feed-in tariffs. For this purpose, the case study of base load CHP plant operation and heat supplied to different typologies of energy end user is assumed. The results allow quantifying the most influencing economic and technical factors that affect the performance and profitability of such investment and the bottlenecks that should be faced to facilitate a broader implementation of such CHP schemes for on site generation.

A nonparametric approach for evaluating long-term energy policy scenarios: an application to the Greek energy system

Abstract This paper by using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) constructs four different renewable energy scenarios for the Greek transport, energy, and industry sectors. By projecting the demand for renewable energy and the associated resulting carbon dioxide emissions up to the years 2020 and 2030, the paper applies in a second stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) evaluating the Greek renewable energy policy. As a result, it provides a quantitative measure for future renewable energy policy evaluation under different renewable energy consumption scenarios. The results reveal that the main challenge for the Greek policy makers will be the energy policies associated with the renewable energy usage of the Greek industry since they are rigid toward the adoption of technologies utilizing renewable energy sources. It appears that under the four different energy policy scenarios, the Greek industry sector will not be able to meet its renewable energy targets set by the Greek government. Finally, the analysis reveals that the renewable energy targets set for 2020 and 2030 can be met for the energy sector. However, the renewable energy targets set for the transport sector can only be met for the year 2030. JEL classifications: C60; Q47; Q53; Q58

Combination of equilibrium models and hybrid life cycle - input–output analysis to predict the environmental impacts of energy policy scenarios

Abstract Nowadays, many countries adopt an active agenda to mitigate the impact of greenhouse gas emissions by moving towards less polluting energy generation technologies. The environmental costs, directly or indirectly generated to achieve such a challenging objective, remain however largely underexplored. Until now, research has focused either on pure economic approaches such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and partial equilibrium (PE) models, or on (physical) energy supply scenarios. These latter could be used to evaluate the environmental impacts of various energy saving or cleaner technologies via Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology. These modelling efforts have, however, been pursued in isolation, without exploring the possible complementarities and synergies. In this study, we have undertaken a practical combination of these approaches into a common framework: on the one hand, by coupling a CGE with a PE model, and, on the other hand, by linking the outcomes from the coupling with a hybrid input–output−process based life cycle inventory. The methodological framework aimed at assessing the environmental consequences of two energy policy scenarios in Luxembourg between 2010 and 2025. The study highlights the potential of coupling CGE and PE models but also the related methodological difficulties (e.g. small number of available technologies in Luxembourg, intrinsic limitations of the two approaches, etc.). The assessment shows both environmental synergies and trade-offs due to the implementation of energy policies. For example, despite the changes in technologies towards the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, only marginal improvements are observed in the climate change mitigation scenario as compared to the Business-As-Usual. The energy related production and imports are indeed expected to increase over time and represent a large contribution to the country’s impacts. Interestingly, side effects on other impacts than climate change or fossil resource depletion (e.g. ionising radiation and water depletion) may also occur mainly due to the use of nuclear energy in neighbouring countries.

Combination of Equilibrium Models and Hybrid Life Cycle Input-Output Analysis to Predict the Environmental Impacts of Energy Policy Scenarios

Combination of Equilibrium Models and Hybrid Life Cycle Input-Output Analysis to Predict the Environmental Impacts of Energy Policy Scenarios

Low carbon standard and transmission investment analysis in the new multi-region US power sector model FACETS

This paper presents a new US multi-region energy systems model built in the TIMES modeling system: the Framework for Analysis of Climate-Energy-Technology Systems (FACETS). The model is designed to analyze energy technology options and policy scenarios across sectors and regions, including the increasingly important interactions between state, regional, and federal policies. FACETS contains a realistic representation of key infrastructure, while retaining the flexibility to explore deep carbon emission reductions and other large changes from the baseline energy system. It is built using a unique, flexible multi-region approach so that the geographic relationships that drive the costs of energy technology transitions can be captured. Significant enhancements to the Veda-TIMES system and a GIS-results viewer permit the massive data handling needed to represent these relationships and interpret results. An analysis of a federal clean energy standard (CES) and investment in the transmission grid is presented.

Natural gas–biomass dual fuelled microturbines: Comparison of operating strategies in the Italian residential sector

This paper compares different operating strategies for small scale (100 kWe) combined heat and power (CHP) plants fired by natural gas and solid biomass to serve a residential energy demand. The focus is on a dual fuel micro gas turbine (MGT) cycle. Various biomass/natural gas energy input ratios are modelled, in order to assess the trade-offs between: (i) lower energy conversion efficiency and higher investment cost when increasing the biomass input rate; (ii) higher primary energy savings and revenues from feed-in tariff available for biomass electricity fed into the grid. The strategies of baseload (BL), heat driven (HD) and electricity driven (ED) plant operation are compared, for an aggregate of residential end-users in cold, average and mild climate conditions. On the basis of the results from thermodynamic assessment and simulation at partial load operation, CAPEX and OPEX estimates, and Italian energy policy scenario (incentives available for biomass electricity, on-site and high efficiency CHP), the maximum global energy efficiency, primary energy savings and investment profitability is found, as a function of biomass/natural gas ratio, plant operating strategy and energy demand typology. The thermal and electric conversion efficiency ranged respectively between 46 and 38% and 30 and 19% for the natural gas and biomass fired case studies. The IRR of the investment was highly influenced by the load/CHP thermal power ratio and by the operation mode. The availability of high heat demand levels was also a key factor, to avoid wasted cogenerated heat and maximize CHP sales revenues. BL operation presented the highest profitability because of the higher revenues from electricity sales. Climate area was another important factor, mainly in case of low load/CHP ratios. Moreover, at low load/CHP power ratio and for the BL operation mode, the dual fuel option presented the highest profitability. This is due to the lower cost of biomass fuel in comparison to natural gas and the high subsidies available for biomass electricity by feed-in tariffs. The results show that dual fuel MT can be an interesting option to increase efficiencies, flexibility and plant reliability at low cost in comparison to only biomass systems, facilitating an integration of renewable and fossil fuel systems.

Electrification of the Canadian road transportation sector: A 2050 outlook with TIMES-Canada

We use a newly developed bottom-up model of the entire Canadian energy system (TIMES-Canada) to assess potentials for electrification of the road transport sector. A special emphasis has been put on the modelling of the Canadian road transport, by considering a variety of vehicles for passenger and freight transportation. Besides a business-as-usual (baseline) scenario, we have analysed an energy policy scenario imposing targets for electric vehicle penetration and a climate policy scenario imposing targets for greenhouse gas emission reduction. Our analysis shows on the one hand that electric vehicles penetrate notably the passenger vehicle market after 2040 in the baseline scenario and after 2030 in the energy policy scenario (following the assumed penetration targets). On the other hand, the assumed climate policy forces a stronger penetration of electric vehicles for passenger transportation, with a progressive phasing out of internal combustion engine vehicles, whereas the latter vehicles remain dominant for freight transportation but with a shift away of fossil fuels and in favour of biofuels. A sensitivity analysis on the (assumed) evolution of electric vehicles over time confirms these general trends.

Planning a Regional Energy System in Association with the Creation of Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs), Statistical Analysis and Energy Efficiency Measures: An Italian Case Study

Directive 2002/91/EC EPBD introduced the Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) as a tool to guide the real estate market in the creation of products (buildings) with improved energy performances. The EPC’s information could be useful in the determination of relevant policies and also in studying the characteristics of the building resources of the territory. This paper presents a case study related to the EPC Database of the Emilia-Romagna Region in mid-northern Italy. The case study shows a way of elaborating the EPC information in statistical analysis evaluations with aggregate data, in order to measure a territory and then direct energy policies toward energy efficiency. A statistical approach was used to define a characteristic statistical indicator index of the EPC database, and compare the energy index with the bottom-up and top-down methods, in order to identify some energy policy scenarios.

The Relationship between Energy and Socio-Economic Development in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean

This report aims to identify, explain and detail the links and interactions in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs) between energy supply and demand and socio-economic development, as well as the potential role of energy supply and demand policies on both. Another related aim is to identify and analyse, in a quantitative and qualitative way, the changing role of energy (both demand and supply) in southern Mediterranean economies, focusing on its positive and negative impact on socio-economic development. This report investigates in particular: - The most important channels through which resource wealth can contribute to or hamper economic and social development in the analysed region; - Mechanisms and channels of relations between energy supply and demand policies and economic and social development. The burdens of energy subsidies and ‘oil syndrome’ are of particular relevance for the region. An integrated socio-economic development and energy policy scenario approach showing the potential benefits and synergies within countries and the region is developed in the final part of the report.

Future energy and emissions policy scenarios in Ireland for private car transport

In this paper we use a technological model of Ireland's future car stock to simulate the impact of a range of policy measures on the baseline trend in energy demand in the period to 2030. The policies and measures modelled comprise meeting deployment targets for electric vehicles and compressed natural gas vehicles, an EU regulation for the improvement of vehicle efficiency, implementation of a national biofuel obligation, as well as several behavioural measures (encouraging modal shifting and reduced travel demand). The impact of the different measures simulated is measured in terms of their contribution to meeting Ireland's ambitious targets for energy savings, for renewable energy penetration and for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. The results point to a possible improvement of 32% in car stock efficiency, the achievement of 7.8% renewable energy share of road and rail transport and a 22% reduction in non-ETS private car CO2 emissions relative to 2009 levels. A scenario analysis on meeting the EV penetration target shows a significant range of CO2 emissions reductions depending on the cars (and mileage) displaced and on the electricity generation portfolio.

Energy Policy Scenarios of CCS Implementation in the Greek Electricity Sector

The energy balance of Greece is strongly dependent on imported oil. The rather late introduction of natural gas has increased the diversity of the energy mix while the share of renewable sources in primary energy supply still needs to increase according to the existing potential. Yet, Greece as one of the most of the EU developed countries encounters a serious task: the need to increase its electricity production of almost 5% per year but at the same time to reduce the CO2 emissions according with the National and International (20-20-20) regulations and allocation plans. Therefore reducing CO2 emissions has become a major priority for national government. In addition, from 2013, there will be the full implementation of the wholesale market in the European Trading Scheme (ETS) which is currently in the last stages of a transition phase.In Greece electricity is mainly generated from lignite, thus making the electricity sector one of the main contributors to GHG emissions with a level above 40% of the total country and higher than the corresponding average of the rest of the EU countries. The possible implementation of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies would then become very decisive due to the large use of the lignite as fuel in the country electricity mix. CCS technology has the potential of increasing the flexibility on the achievement greenhouse gas emissions reduction by allowing to continue to use fossil fuels, which still guarantees feasibility in the energy sector. This work presents a roadmap with the modeling of the main technologies associated to the CCS and its implementation into the Greek energy system considering existing National and International Strategic energy plans under different scenarios. The implementation of CCS technologies would have a large influence on the national electrical power production, having the responsibility for large shares of the emissions reduction that can potentially achieved in this sector. For this purpose, TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL/EFOM System) has been chosen as the principal tool for building a techno-economic model of the Greek energy system and its possible evaluation over time (2040).

Scenarios on European energy security: Outcomes of natural gas strategy in 2020

This paper adopts a futuristic methodology and analyzes the role of natural gas in European energy security in order to transform economic and policy uncertainties into meaningful scenarios. It implements “trend analysis” to forecast the volume of gas needed until 2020 by elaborating the estimates of the EU Commission and “scenario building” to come up with alternative futures forging different regional implications. The economic analysis stems from four scenarios as introduced by the EU Commission: (1) baseline scenario with average oil price of 61$/bbl; (2) baseline scenario with average oil price of 100$/bbl; (3) New Energy Policy scenario with average oil price of 61$/bbl; (4) New Energy Policy scenario with average oil price of 100$/bbl. The policy analysis is derived from the options, restraints, priorities and strategies of the concerned actors which include the EU Commission, selected EU members, suppliers and transit countries. The analysis on actors results in four policy scenarios: (1) Russia first; (2) Russia everywhere; (3) security first; (4) each for itself. The matrix, which excludes the possibility of unprecedented developments such as a drastic increase in European shale gas production or continuing global recession, clusters 16 contingencies. The paper, within this context, gives an idea on how alternative policy options of European energy security may lead to different futures based on oil prices, environmental commitments and strategic initiatives of the concerned actors.

Energy policy scenarios to reach challenging climate protection targets in the German electricity sector until 2050

In this article we demonstrate how challenging greenhouse gas reduction targets of up to 95% until 2050 can be achieved in the German electricity sector. In the analysis, we focus on the main requirements to reach such challenging targets. To account for interdependencies between the electricity market and the rest of the economy, different models were used to account for feedback loops with all other sectors. We include scenarios with different runtimes and retrofit costs for existing nuclear plants to determine the effects of a prolongation of nuclear power plants in Germany. Key findings for the electricity sector include the importance of a European-wide coordinated electricity grid extension and the exploitation of regional comparative cost effects for renewable sites. Due to political restrictions, nuclear energy will not be available in Germany in 2050. However, the nuclear life-time extension has a positive impact on end consumer electricity prices as well as economic growth in the medium term, if retrofit costs do not exceed certain limits.

Modeling future U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in wood energy consumption

Abstract This paper describes an approach to modeling U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in domestic wood energy consumption under hypothetical future U.S. wood biomass energy policy scenarios. The U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM) was created to enhance the modeling of the U.S. forest sector within the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM), providing a more detailed representation of U.S. regional timber supply and wood residue markets. Scenarios were analyzed with USFPM/GFPM ranging from a baseline 48% increase to a 173% increase in annual U.S. consumption of wood for energy from 2006 to 2030, while consumption of fuelwood in other countries was assumed to increase by around 65% in aggregate. Results indicate that expansion in wood energy consumption across the range of scenarios may have little impact on U.S. forest sector markets because most of the expansion can be supplied by logging residues that are presently not being utilized and also mill residues that will increase in supply with projected expansion in wood product output in the decades ahead. However, analysis also suggests that forest sector markets could be disrupted by expansion in wood energy if much higher levels of wood energy consumption occur, or if projected recovery in housing demand and wood product output does not occur, or if more restrictive constraints or higher costs are imposed on wood residue utilization.

Cost and CO 2 aspects of future vehicle options in Europe under new energy policy scenarios

New electrified vehicle concepts are about to enter the market in Europe. The expected gains in environmental performance for these new vehicle types are associated with higher technology costs. In parallel, the fuel efficiency of internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrids is continuously improved, which in turn advances their environmental performance but also leads to additional technology costs versus today’s vehicles. The present study compares the well-to-wheel CO 2 emissions, costs and CO 2 abatement costs of generic European cars, including a gasoline vehicle, diesel vehicle, gasoline hybrid, diesel hybrid, plug in hybrid and battery electric vehicle. The predictive comparison is done for the snapshots 2010, 2020 and 2030 under a new energy policy scenario for Europe. The results of the study show clearly that the electrification of vehicles offer significant possibilities to reduce specific CO 2 emissions in road transport, when supported by adequate policies to decarbonise the electricity generation. Additional technology costs for electrified vehicle types are an issue in the beginning, but can go down to enable payback periods of less than 5 years and very competitive CO 2 abatement costs, provided that market barriers can be overcome through targeted policy support that mainly addresses their initial cost penalty.

Fuel consumption from vehicles of China until 2030 in energy scenarios

Estimation of fuel (gasoline and diesel) consumption for vehicles in China under different long-term energy policy scenarios is presented here. The fuel economy of different vehicle types is subject to variation of government regulations; hence the fuel consumption of passenger cars (PCs), light trucks (Lts), heavy trucks (Hts), buses and motor cycles (MCs) are calculated with respect to (i) the number of vehicles, (ii) distance traveled, and (iii) fuel economy. On the other hand, the consumption rate of alternative energy sources (i.e. ethanol, methanol, biomass-diesel and CNG) is not evaluated here. The number of vehicles is evaluated using the economic elastic coefficient method, relating to per capita gross domestic product (GDP) from 1997 to 2007. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system software is employed to develop a simple model to project fuel consumption in China until 2030 under these scenarios. Three energy consumption decrease scenarios are designed to estimate the reduction of fuel consumption: (i) ‘business as usual’ (BAU); (ii) ‘advanced fuel economy’ (AFE); and (iii) ‘alternative energy replacement’ (AER). It is shown that fuel consumption is predicted to reach 992.28 Mtoe (million tons oil equivalent) with the BAU scenario by 2030. In the AFE and AER scenarios, fuel consumption is predicted to be 734.68 and 600.36 Mtoe, respectively, by 2030. In the AER scenario, fuel consumption in 2030 will be reduced by 391.92 (39.50%) and 134.29 (18.28%) Mtoe in comparison to the BAU and AFE scenarios, respectively. In conclusion, our models indicate that the energy conservation policies introduced by governmental institutions are potentially viable, as long as they are effectively implemented.

Use of multi-criteria decision analysis to explore alternative domestic energy and electricity policy scenarios in an Irish city-region☆

Abstract In this paper, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) was used to assess 6 policy measures or scenarios relating to residential heating energy and domestic electricity consumption, using an Irish city-region as case study. The analysis was undertaken using a modified version of MCDA based on the NAIADE (Novel Approach to Imprecise Assessment and Decision Environments) software and involved a decision output based on a mix of qualitative and quantitative assessment, which offered a ranking of options. It was concluded that Scenario 2, which proposes reducing energy and electricity consumption, was the most preferable option and Scenario 3, which proposes increasing the contribution of wood waste, was the least preferable option. This suggests that absolute reduction and demand management should be prioritised over fuel substitution or renewable energy technologies. MCDA was also compared with ecological footprint (EF) analysis for the same set of scenarios and it was found that both metrics show that Scenario 2 is preferable. However, MCDA shows that Scenario 3 is the least preferable scenario, whereas EF analysis suggests that Scenario 4 is, i.e. increased contribution of short rotation coppice (SRC). This suggests that a mix of assessment tools/indicators should be used when attempting to identify the most justifiable policy options as different indicators reflect different policy aspects.

Regional-scale electric power system planning under uncertainty—A multistage interval-stochastic integer linear programming approach

In this study, a multistage interval-stochastic regional-scale energy model (MIS-REM) is developed for supporting electric power system (EPS) planning under uncertainty that is based on a multistage interval-stochastic integer linear programming method. The developed MIS-REM can deal with uncertainties expressed as both probability distributions and interval values existing in energy system planning problems. Moreover, it can reflect dynamic decisions for electricity generation schemes and capacity expansions through transactions at discrete points of a multiple representative scenario set over a multistage context. It can also analyze various energy-policy scenarios that are associated with economic penalties when the regulated targets are violated. A case study is provided for demonstrating the applicability of the developed model, where renewable and non-renewable energy resources, economic concerns, and environmental requirements are integrated into a systematic optimization process. The results obtained are helpful for supporting (a) adjustment or justification of allocation patterns of regional energy resources and services, (b) formulation of local policies regarding energy consumption, economic development, and energy structure, and (c) analysis of interactions among economic cost, environmental requirement, and energy-supply security.

Use of ecological footprinting to explore alternative domestic energy and electricity policy scenarios in an Irish city-region

The purpose of this paper is to measure the ecological footprint (EF) of energy and electricity consumption by the residents of an Irish city-region, in terms of the land area required to sequester carbon emissions from energy and electricity consumption and to support energy infrastructure and development. The EF was also used to analyse the impact of potential scenarios and policies and results were compared with the business as usual (BAU) projection in order to identify the optimal policy measure. It was found that the total EF for domestic energy and electricity consumption by Limerick residents increased by 7% from 0.125 global hectares (gha) per capita in 1996 to 0.134 gha per capita in 2002. The EF was then used to assess different policy measures or scenarios. It was concluded that Scenario 2, which proposes reducing energy and electricity consumption, was the most preferable option, and Scenario 4, which proposes increasing the contribution of short rotation coppice (SRC), the least preferable option. This suggests that absolute reduction and demand management should be prioritised over renewables substitution in a policy hierarchy. Of the renewable energy scenarios, Scenario 4 has the highest EF as a result of land appropriation for biomass production.

Potentials and prospects for renewable energies at global scale

Renewable energies (RE) represent a cornerstone to steer our energy system in the direction of sustainability and supply security. Generating electricity, heat or biofuels from renewable energy sources has become a high priority in the energy policy strategies at national level as well as at a global scale. Challenging goals for these “new” supply options to meet our energy demands have been set, e.g. at European level by the commitment of meeting 20% of the overall energy demand from renewable energy sources by 2020. A broad set of different RE technologies and resources exist today. Obviously, for a comprehensive investigation of the future RE development it is of crucial importance to provide a detailed investigation of the country-or region-specific situation—e.g. with respect to the potential of the certain RE's in general as well as the part that can be realised in the near future. It is the core objective of this paper to fulfil above-mentioned constraints, aiming to present an overview on the RE potentials and prospects globally—but based on region- and/or country-specific assessments of the resource conditions, the overall energy system boundaries and the related energy policy framework. Thus, a topical focus is put on both the near to mid future up to 2020 and the long-term perspective, indicating besides theoretical and technical potentials also the realisable mid- and long-term potentials referring to the time-horizon between 2030 and 2050 and prospects for the various renewable energy options. Future prospects are discussed by means of analysing energy policy scenarios as conducted for the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s “World Energy Outlook”-series. In this context, emphasis is given on the illustration of the possible contribution of renewable energies to power supply.