Abstract
Abstract This paper by using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) constructs four different renewable energy scenarios for the Greek transport, energy, and industry sectors. By projecting the demand for renewable energy and the associated resulting carbon dioxide emissions up to the years 2020 and 2030, the paper applies in a second stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) evaluating the Greek renewable energy policy. As a result, it provides a quantitative measure for future renewable energy policy evaluation under different renewable energy consumption scenarios. The results reveal that the main challenge for the Greek policy makers will be the energy policies associated with the renewable energy usage of the Greek industry since they are rigid toward the adoption of technologies utilizing renewable energy sources. It appears that under the four different energy policy scenarios, the Greek industry sector will not be able to meet its renewable energy targets set by the Greek government. Finally, the analysis reveals that the renewable energy targets set for 2020 and 2030 can be met for the energy sector. However, the renewable energy targets set for the transport sector can only be met for the year 2030. JEL classifications: C60; Q47; Q53; Q58
Highlights
IntroductionAccording to Bhattacharyya and Timilsina (2010), Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) is based on the accounting framework in order to generate energy demand (and supply) and on the physical description of the Halkos et al Journal of Economic Structures (2015) 4:3 examined energy system
Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) is a widely used software tool for energy policy analysis and climate change mitigation assessment developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute
The bimodality is reported for the TAR30 and green scenarios. For both scenarios, there is a first peak at the 45% level of efficiency of the renewable energy policy (EREP) whereas the second peak for the TAR30 is around the 87% and that for the green scenario is around 100%
Summary
According to Bhattacharyya and Timilsina (2010), LEAP is based on the accounting framework in order to generate energy demand (and supply) and on the physical description of the Halkos et al Journal of Economic Structures (2015) 4:3 examined energy system. On their extensive review Bhattacharyya and Timilsina (2010) emphasize the fact that LEAP is based on the scenario approach in order for several paths of energy system evolution to be developed. According to Heaps (2002), the forecast of the energy demand is based on the effect of alternative market shares, whereas the supply side is based on a what-if analysis and possible development scenarios which LEAP integrates through simulation and accounting approaches
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