Energy Development Scenarios Research Articles

Forecasting the cost and volume of uranium mining for different world nuclear energy development scenarios

Forecasting the cost and volume of uranium mining for different world nuclear energy development scenarios

Peak-shaving cost of power system in the key scenarios of renewable energy development in China: Ningxia case study

Renewable energy has developed rapidly in Ningxia, and it has become the first provincial power system in China whose renewable energy power generation output exceeds the power load of the whole region. The access of a high proportion of renewable energy puts forward higher requirements for the peak-shaving capacity of the Ningxia power system. In order to solve the problem of calculating the peak-shaving cost in the key scenarios of renewable energy development in Ningxia, a quantitative model of the peak-shaving cost of the power system considering time-of-use price is proposed. We take Ningxia power system as an example to study. First, the key scenarios of the Ningxia power system peak-shaving are obtained, and the technical cost characteristic boundaries of various peak-shaving resources are determined. Second, according to the characteristics of typical daily renewable energy and load in Ningxia, the quantification model of the power system peak-shaving cost is established. The model takes the minimum total cost of the power system as the objective function and considers the constraints such as technical output of thermal power units, charge-discharge characteristics of energy storage and time-of-use price mechanism. Finally, the model is solved and the peak-shaving cost and unit output under the optimal scheme are obtained. This example shows that the model can effectively evaluate the peak-shaving cost and unit output of the Ningxia power system under the key scenarios of peak-shaving.

Framework of land use planning for an energy producing city of Northwest China based on water-energy-food nexus

The development of cities and their industries is constrained by the water-energy-food nexus (WEF nexus) formed under certain biophysical conditions. Urban-scale WEF nexus research is very different from macroscale (global or national) research. There is a need for quantitative optimization of several economic sectors, as well as spatial heterogeneity of resource endowments, to develop policies that are distinctive for different levels of endowments. Currently, China is implementing Territorial Spatial Planning (TSP) at all administrative levels throughout the country. Its theoretical basis is to realize the overall management of urban ecological protection land, urban expansion, and industrial growth by measuring the resource carrying capacity and land development suitability of each plot. This provides an opportunity to explore the interconnections between WEF nexus at urban scale by examining the wide range of urban resource availability. Here, we propose the WEF-TSP framework, which helps to realize the multi-objective development needs of regional ecological protection, urban expansion, agricultural development, and energy production in a certain city and provides a decision-making basis for future urban land spatial planning. Ordos, a city in China recognized for its significant energy reserves, has been selected as the subject of a case study. Combined with the spatial heterogeneity of Ordos's resource endowment and focusing on the strong constraints of water resources and ecological protection, this study explores the urban land spatial layout scheme of Ordos in 2030 under different energy development scenarios. It can also provide a reference for other cities in China and even the world to study the spatial layout of urban land use and industrial development based on the WEF nexus.

Research on a new power system development planning model based on two-tier planning

With the rapid development of the power industry, the safe and stable operation of the power system has become an important basis for safeguarding economic and social development. In order to adapt to the trend of rapid growth of new energy sources and the demand for transformation and upgrading of the power industry, the capacity allocation scheme of the power system needs to be constantly optimized and adjusted. To address the development planning of new power systems, a new power system development planning model based on two-layer planning is constructed, taking into account the operational output results of various types of units and the interaction between the configuration schemes. Through the analysis of the evolution of the power system in a region in the next 15 years, the development pattern of the new power system in different stages under the high, medium, and low scenarios of new energy development is optimally calculated to guide the development of the power system. The results show that the model can provide a quantitative reference for decision-making on energy policies and power strategies in the medium and long term.

The Impact of Energy on Climate and Economic Stability: Forecast for Serbia

Abstract In the conditions of modern business environment of energy companies, studies of their impact on environmental protection are becoming increasingly important. The growing concern at the macro level of the resulting climate change due to energy production is justified. The ecological component in the business of energy entities is becoming a priority for the sustainable development of energy, and therefore must be thoroughly examined. The focus of this paper is to determine the impact of energy on climate change through the emission of Greenhouse Gases on the example of the Republic of Serbia. The paper also examines the long-term interdependence between key economic and energy indicators at the national level. The IPAT/Kaya identity was used for research purposes and three alternative scenarios of energy development in Serbia until year 2050 were developed. The obtained results point to different possibilities for the development of energy and its impact on climate. The importance of promoting renewable energy sources for environmental protection and overall economic stability is also pointed out through proposed alternative scenarios. Significant results were obtained for the predicted level of energy intensity for the observed period, suggesting how the development of energy in Serbia could affect economic stability until 2050.

Specific features of the energy sector in Russia’s eastern regions and their influence on shaping the Eastern direction in the new geopolitical landscape

The paper presents an analysis of regional features of energy systems in the eastern regions of Russia. The analysis aims to identify their effect on the development of the territorial and production structure of the energy sector, energy consumption, the transportation infrastructure, the export of energy resources to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, and the efficiency of energy supply to consumers in the off-grid and hard-to-reach territories. Several categories of features are distinguished for the regional energy systems in the eastern regions of Russia. These are socio-economic, infrastructural, sectoral, environmental, and climatic. All these features are interrelated and require consideration when building the energy development scenarios, in particular those with a focus on the transition to low-carbon technologies.

The Atlantic surfclam fishery and offshore wind energy development: 2. Assessing economic impacts

Abstract The Atlantic surfclam (Spisula solidissima) fishery generates approximately USD 30 million in landings revenues annually, distributed across ports throughout the US Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Overlap between areas of Atlantic surfclam harvests and offshore wind energy leasing make the fishery vulnerable to exclusion and effort displacement as development expands in the region. An existing integrated bioeconomic agent-based model, including spatial dynamics in Atlantic surfclam stock biology, heterogeneous captain behaviour, and federal management processes, was extended to incorporate costs and revenues for fishing vessels and processors and used to evaluate the potential economic effects of offshore wind development on the Atlantic surfclam fishery. Fishing activity and economic outcomes were simulated under different offshore wind energy development scenarios that impose spatial restrictions on Atlantic surfclam vessel fishing and transiting behaviour. Decreases in the number of trips and shifts in the spatial distribution of fishing effort reduced revenues for Atlantic surfclam fishing vessels and processors by ∼3–15% and increased average fishing costs by < 1–5%, with impacts varying across development scenarios and fishing ports. The modelling approach used in this analysis has potential for addressing additional questions surrounding sustainable ocean multi-use and further quantifying interactions between offshore wind energy development and commercial fisheries.

Under domination of oil and gas: future scenarios of renewable energy development in Iran

Purpose Scenario planning is a useful approach that helps policymakers to better understand the complexity and uncertainties that lie in the future and to choose the right policy mix to support the development of renewable and affordable energy sources. In this regard, this paper aims to present renewable energy (RE) development scenarios in Iran in the horizon of 2030. Design/methodology/approach Following the intuitive logic school and the Global Business Network model, the authors identified seven driving forces, according to the expert’s judgment, by brainstorming techniques which influence REs development in the horizon of 2030. By prioritizing driving forces based on their importance and uncertainty, “sustainable and green economy” and “emerging technology development” are the most instrumental uncertainties and the authors formed a two-axis scenario matrix with each representing an axis. Findings The results suggest four main scenarios of “Transition to Sustainability with Green Gold,” “Towards Sustainability with Green Gold,” “Productivity with Black Gold” and “Desperation with Black Gold.” They include a wide range of possible situations of energy basket in the future ranging from dominance of fossil fuels to dominance of REs. The “Productivity with Black Gold” and the “Towards Sustainability with Green Gold” are the most probable scenarios of RE development by 2030 in Iran. Originality/value This paper indicates that the dominance of oil and gas resources would impede or at least slow down the development of renewable and affordable energy sources. Although the economic and environmental potentials and the inevitability of REs are well-understood, path dependence created by fossil fuels in Iran’s energy regime, either partially or fully, hinders the widespread development of REs which is the case in other resource-based countries as well.

Offshore Wind Replaces Coal and Reduces Transmission, Enabling China to Meet the 1.5°C Climate Imperative

Author(s): Li, Bo; Ma, Ziming; He, Gang; Hidalgo-Gonzalez, Patricia; Fedorova, Natalie; Chen, Minyou; Kammen, Daniel M

Достижимость радиологической эквивалентности в ЗЯТЦ на базе БР с учётом факторов неопределённости сценариев развития ядерной энергетики в России до 2100 г. Часть 1. Мощность ТР и БР

The Russian Government approved the Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation (Government Decree No.1523-r of June 9, 2020). The Strategy envisages the use of both thermal (TR) and fast (FR) reactors. The Strategy points out that the problems of nuclear power are associated with po-tential high expenses for irradiated fuel and radioactive wastes management. The previously de-signed model of the Russian nuclear energy development suggested that fast reactors only would operate at NPPs after 2010. Radiological equivalence, expressed as the equivalence of lifetime radiation risks to the public from radioactive wastes and from primary uranium ore, was shown to be achieved after 100-year storage. The burnup of 241Am, 237Np и 242Сm in closed nu-clear fuel cycle with fast reactors is a key part in the achievability of radiation risks equivalence. Scenarios of the Russian nuclear energy development through to 2100 with account of uncertain-ty factors in the measurement of contribution of fast and thermal reactors to the electric energy production are considered in the paper. The following three scenarios were developed: uncer-tainty is replaced by FRs; uncertainty is replaced by TRs; 50 per cent of FRs and 50 per cent of TRs replace uncertainty. If the energy is produced by fast reactors only (scenario 1) radiological equivalence was found to be achieved in 412 years. In two other scenarios radiological equiva-lence will be achieved after more than 1000 years. Contribution of main dose-forming radionu-clides and relevant ratios of potential biological hazards is included in models regardless of whether uncertainty in nuclear energy development is taking or not taking into account. Results of the study of conditions for radiological equivalence achievement should be used for amending Strategic plan of Russian nuclear power development through to 2100 that meets requirements of radiation ecology and radiation protection of the public.

Connotation and Benefit Evaluation on Integrated Energy System of Urban Agglomeration

With the development of ecological civilization construction and regional coordinated development strategy in China, to adapt to the development trend of urban agglomeration, the energy structure will be adjusted and upgraded accordingly. The energy structure has gradually changed from fossil energy to diversified supply mode. The integrated energy system of urban agglomeration will coordinate with energy planning, operation, management and other links, and realize the linkage and complementarity of multiple energy sources. In this context, it is necessary to carry out a systematic analysis of the comprehensive energy system of urban agglomerations. This paper analyzes the connotation, characteristics and function mechanism of comprehensive energy system of urban agglomeration, and constructs a set of evaluation index system. These research ideas and methods can be applied to the scenarios of energy development, utilization and management that adapt to the development of urban agglomeration, and provide scientific analysis tools for energy system management and evaluation.

Energy industrial water withdrawal under different energy development scenarios: A multi-regional approach and a case study of China

Increasing water demand for energy industries has raised concerns for the compliance of energy industry development and water resources constraints. The regional characteristics of uneven distribution of energy and water resources exacerbates regional energy-related water shortage. This paper focus on quantitative analysis of energy development impacts on water resources that considers regional characteristics. A supply-demand-integrated method is proposed to assess water stress of energy industry for multiple regions and multiple energy types under different energy development scenarios. China has a typical mismatch characteristic of energy and water resources. Case studies of China are conducted at both regional and energy-base scales. Results show that the water stress of energy industry in northwest regions (40%) is higher than that of the national average value (24%) in 2015. The carbon emission reduction measures can save the energy industrial water withdrawal by about 16%–33% in 2030, compared with the Business as Usual Scenario. Interregional power transmission would result in an over 100% value of the water stress in energy output areas. The coal chemical industry is high-water-consuming and accounts for a large proportion of the water demand in energy bases. The technological progress and capacity reduction of high-water-consuming technologies can reduce the water stress. Both water demand side and water supply side measures are suggested to reach the coordinated development of energy industry with water resources.

Material stocks and flows of power infrastructure development in China

As the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases with a dominant share of coal-fired power, China is expecting a continuous clean power transition in the next decades. However, the development of power generation, transmission, and distribution infrastructure requires significant amount of construction materials, therefore an understanding of the corresponding materials demand and waste generation would be important. In this paper, we deployed a dynamic, bottom-up, and technology-specific material flow analysis approach to characterize the stocks and flows of four major construction materials (cement, steel, aluminum, and copper) associated with China's power infrastructure development from 1980 to 2050. We found that the material stocks of China's power infrastructure have increased from 30 ± 4 Mt in 1980 to 573 ± 91 Mt in 2018 (an annual growth rate of 7.7%) and will further increase to 1188 Mt and 1487 Mt in 2050, respectively, in the two energy development scenarios we constructed. While thermal and hydro power contributed the most to stocks growth in the past two decades, solar and wind power are expected to contribute more in the future. A more metal-intensive energy future is foreseen due to increasing use of steel and aluminum in renewable energy generation and use of copper and aluminum in power transmission and distribution. These patterns reflect the physical material basis of China's power transition and call for better understanding of the energy-material nexus for addressing the dual challenge of satisfying growing materials demand and addressing increasing amount of waste and environmental impacts in the next decades.

Efficiency Assessment of Nuclear Energy Development Scenarios for Russia Using Multi-Criteria Analysis

The development of any energy system, including nuclear, is a lengthy and multi-stage process. To evaluate the outlook, many significant factors outside the nuclear energy system and the uncertainty of future avenues of macroeconomic development must be taken into account. This task requires a multi-criteria approach to the analysis of the competitiveness of the technology using criteria that combine economic and safety indicators, environmental impacts, realization risks, and development outlook. This article reports the results of a multi-criteria systems analysis of alternative scenarios for the development of nuclear energy in Russia performed using international assessment tools.

Insights for global energy interconnection from China renewable energy development

Vigorously developing global renewable energy such as wind energy, solar energy, and hydropower and realizing global clean resource sharing are paramount driving forces for building the Global Energy Interconnection (GEI). With the help of a comparative analysis of renewable energy development and global renewable energy development scenarios, this paper expounds on the similarities between China1 and global renewable energy development. Based on the analysis of renewable energy development and the status of global renewable energy development in China, this paper summarizes the relevant experience and problems of renewable energy development in China. According to these problems, this paper also puts forward the corresponding solutions and measures, that is, to promote the healthy and steady development of renewable energy in China through the source-network-load-storage and market coordination. Finally, by analyzing the development requirements and current foundation of GEI, insights and suggestions are proposed for the future development of renewable energy for the GEI construction.

Multi-Regional Energy Industrial Water Withdrawal Research under Different Energy Development Scenarios: A Case Study of China

Limited water resources are threatening the development of energy industry, especially for a country like China, with huge yet still fast increasing energy demand, geographically inverse distribution of energy resources and water resources. However, previous studies mainly focus on a nation-wide scale and merely in coal industry chain. Understanding the impact of regional differences on energy industrial water withdrawal remains a challenge. In this work, a multi-regional supply and demand analytical method is proposed, and China is divided into 17 regions for multi-regional analysis. Results indicate that water withdrawal pressure of energy industry differs greatly in different regions. An energy development path of carbon emission reduction can have a significant coordinating water-saving effect. long-distance power transmission may aggravate water shortage in water-scarce regions. Three representative coal-rich energy bases are analysed and the gap between demand of energy industrial water withdrawal and water supply is huge in a business-as-usual scenario. This gap can be reduced or eliminated only if both total amount control and intensity control strategies are jointly adopted.

Characteristics and scenarios of solar energy development in Iran: Fuzzy cognitive map-based approach

Widespread use of promising solar energy is an integral attribute of governments toward global efforts in mitigating future emission and reducing the fossil fuel consumption trajectory. However, the outlook of solar energy development at the strategic level is driven by inherent uncertainties in a long-term perspective. As these unpredictable volatilities come into play, they heavily influence the future trends formed by a range of exogenous and endogenous factors including Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal (PESTEL). This study aimed at identifying, characterizing, and analyzing influential PESTEL factors shaping the dynamics of Solar Photovoltaics (SPV) in an uncertain environment. For this purpose, the Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) method was employed for the case of Iran to investigate how involved factors dynamically interact and collectively behave in system. A participatory stepwise framework was developed consisting of three steps by conducting a survey and two workshops with the participation of multidisciplinary stakeholders. Aa a result, a semi-quantitative model was formed in an integrated FCM comprising 31 interwoven concepts. To further outline possible future trends, five key concepts were determined that explored four plausible projections of Iran's SPV sector. The scenario outcome suggests that the industry is profoundly affected by external economic and political factors. Two scenarios “Cornered in a Dead-End” and “At Wits' End” project that, by 2030, the sector experiences a declining growth trend. “The Period of Tolerance” scenario does not envisage a dramatic change from the current trajectory, while in only “Blue Sky” the country's SPV sector anticipate a moderate growth.

EU Carbon Emissions Market Development and Its Impact on Penetration of Renewables in the Power Sector

This paper focuses on the analysis of the EU carbon trading scheme and its impacts on regional power system development and penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). The aim of the article is to analyze the forecasts of carbon dioxide (EUA) prices for the years 2019–2030 and to apply the results of this forecast in regional power system planning. The data employed in this paper come from many sources, including empirical data of the selected analytical companies, such as Thomson Reuters among others. The current low prices for carbon dioxide emission rights do not encourage the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, in particular carbon dioxide, and do not have a significant impact on the penetration of renewables. This paper presents the results of two scenarios (for 2021 and 2030) developed after the analysis of the EUA price impact on penetration of renewable energy sources in West-Pomeranian region assuming different electricity production and the EUA price forecasts. The results of two regional energy development scenarios run for 2021 and 2030 indicate changes in the structure of renewables in West-Pomeranian region. The results also show that the increase of EUA price has a significant impact on the increase of costs for power production and increase of unit cost of the installed 1GWh. In addition, the forecasted EUA price in 2030 is 3% lower as compared with 2021, which has its impact on the increased share of electricity produced by co-firing biomass with other fossil—from 42% to 68% in the electricity generation structure of West-Pomeranian region.

Long-term economic impacts of energy development scenarios: The role of domestic electricity generation

The development of domestic energy generation is often expected to provide benefits to the economy through, for example, improved energy trade balance and jobs created. However, the economic impacts of energy development scenarios are not limited to the energy sector, and the decision makers must consider the impacts on the entire economy. In this paper, we analyse the full impacts of increased domestic electricity generation in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework. Realistic energy development scenarios are modelled using the MESSAGE energy system model and considered to be exogenously described energy pathways that generate responses from the remaining economy. These technically and economically consistent energy scenarios are incorporated into the computable general equilibrium model through the creation of fixed, variable, and investment cost structures for the energy forms considered. Model application in Lithuanian case revealed the interchangeable character of electricity imports and local generation based on a relatively significant share of imported resources. Depending on electricity market conditions, scenarios with higher domestic electricity generation levels might fail to provide substantial economic benefits: although increasing electricity import prices would create preconditions to increase domestic electricity production and turn Lithuania to the net electricity exporter, gross domestic product (GDP) might decrease due to the negative impacts on other economic activities. International cooperation for least-cost clean energy supply might be economically beneficial to energy importing countries and increasing domestic electricity generation should not be set as the ultimate goal.

Representing the costs of low-carbon power generation in multi-region multi-sector energy-economic models

Multi-region multi-sector energy-economic models are often used to analyze long-term scenarios of energy development, however, these models usually rely on a simplified representation of technological details in power generation. To strengthen this representation, we develop a method for modeling the economic competition between different advanced technologies in multi-region multi-sector dynamic energy-economic models based on a markup approach, which represents the measure of the cost of a technology relative to the price received for electricity generation. The markup includes capital costs, fixed and variable operating and maintenance (O&M) costs, fuel costs, and transmission and distribution (T&D) costs. For intermittent technologies, it also includes a backup requirement to make these technologies effectively dispatchable. For carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, it also includes the costs of CO2 capture, transportation and storage. We provide a standardized markup calculation for generation technologies for different regions of the world, including USA, China, India, EU, Japan and others. Then we analyze the sensitivity of the calculation to critical inputs, including capital costs, fuel costs, carbon prices and capacity factors. We provide a detailed calculation of the relative costs of the following technologies: new pulverized coal, new pulverized coal with CCS, natural gas combined cycle, natural gas with CCS, biomass-fueled plant, biomass with CCS, advanced nuclear, wind (for small and medium penetration levels), solar, wind with backup (for large penetration levels), co-firing of coal and biomass combined with CCS, and advanced CCS on natural gas. For illustration, we incorporate the markups into the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a global multi-sector multi-sector dynamic energy-economic model with a detailed representation of power generation technologies, and run several scenarios. Our analysis and results provide insight on the deployment of different low-carbon power generation technologies depending on assumptions about carbon policy stringency.