Abstract
This paper focuses on the analysis of the EU carbon trading scheme and its impacts on regional power system development and penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). The aim of the article is to analyze the forecasts of carbon dioxide (EUA) prices for the years 2019–2030 and to apply the results of this forecast in regional power system planning. The data employed in this paper come from many sources, including empirical data of the selected analytical companies, such as Thomson Reuters among others. The current low prices for carbon dioxide emission rights do not encourage the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, in particular carbon dioxide, and do not have a significant impact on the penetration of renewables. This paper presents the results of two scenarios (for 2021 and 2030) developed after the analysis of the EUA price impact on penetration of renewable energy sources in West-Pomeranian region assuming different electricity production and the EUA price forecasts. The results of two regional energy development scenarios run for 2021 and 2030 indicate changes in the structure of renewables in West-Pomeranian region. The results also show that the increase of EUA price has a significant impact on the increase of costs for power production and increase of unit cost of the installed 1GWh. In addition, the forecasted EUA price in 2030 is 3% lower as compared with 2021, which has its impact on the increased share of electricity produced by co-firing biomass with other fossil—from 42% to 68% in the electricity generation structure of West-Pomeranian region.
Highlights
One of the negative by-products of our economic system is carbon dioxide, the emission of which is inevitably accompanied by the combustion of fossil fuels used for energy production
The results show that the increase of European Allowance (EUA) price has a significant impact on the increase of costs for power production and increase of unit cost of the installed 1GWh
Concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2 ), methane and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere have increased by 40% as compared to the pre-industrial era, mainly due to the combustion of fossil fuels, as well as due to the emissions related to changes in land use [1,2]
Summary
One of the negative by-products of our economic system is carbon dioxide, the emission of which is inevitably accompanied by the combustion of fossil fuels used for energy production. Countries around the world have developed emission trading schemes as a means to place a price on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Such GHG trading systems are in place in Europe, North America, and parts of Asia. The European Union (EU) has introduced the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), known as the Community market for carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emission rights, or the EU ETS system. It is currently the world’s largest CO2 trading system. The EU ETS was launched in 2005 with a pilot phase, followed by Phase 2 up until
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