Energy Development Scenarios Research Articles

A new quantitative life cycle sustainability assessment framework: Application to integrated energy systems

There are two dimensions to “sustainability” as it applies to an engineered system: (i) it needs to be designed, operated, and managed such that its environmental impacts and costs are minimal, and, (ii) it ought to be designed and configured in such a way that it is robust to extreme disruptions and shocks posed by natural, manmade, or random events, i.e. be resilient under extreme events. These somewhat conflicting attributes call for a multi-criteria analysis framework. This paper proposes such an assessment framework for engineered systems involving three new location and circumstance-specific sustainability indices that monetize the economic, environmental and resiliency characteristics throughout the lifecycle of the system components. The proposed framework, thus, allows translating sustainability goals into engineering practice, and is applicable to: (i) the design of new systems, (ii) assessing performance of an existing system, (iii) day-to-day scheduling and operation of the system, and (iv) future growth planning. A novel presentation method, called “Sustainability Compass”, is also proposed which allows decision-makers to visually track the direction and magnitude of changes in the individual sustainability indices of different scenarios; this would also allow easier communication with other stakeholders. The proposed methodology and the usefulness of the Sustainability Compass diagram have been illustrated using end-use monitored data for a whole year of operation of a university campus integrated energy system. The results of five alternative energy development scenarios involving a combined heat and power system and solar photovoltaic systems with different penetration levels have been investigated and are reported in this paper.

Evaluation of Future Water Use for Electricity Generation under Different Energy Development Scenarios in China

Water scarcity and uneven water demand in regional electricity generation pose substantial challenges to the sustainable development of water resources and electricity production in China. Based on the latest official policy of China’s electricity development, i.e., the 13th Five-Year Plan of electricity development, this study quantified annual water withdrawal and consumption for future electricity generation in China from 2015 to 2030. This study simulated a three-prong approach to impacting water use for electricity development, i.e., updating the cooling technology mix, increasing non-thermal power generation and relocating thermal power plants to the west. The results showed that solutions to relieve water stress caused by electricity production entail major trade-offs. Annual water withdrawal and consumption were projected to exceed 63.75 and 8.30 billion m3 by 2030, up approximately 14% and 21% of those in 2015, respectively, if China does not implement any new water and energy policies. Replacing once-through cooling systems with closed-loop cooling systems would decrease national water withdrawal remarkably but increase water consumption. The west-centered spatial distribution of thermoelectric power generation would reduce water use at the national level; however, it will largely increase water stress in northern and northwestern China. Thus, relieving the stress of growing electricity demand on water resources in China requires comprehensive measures and quantitative estimates.

Multi-criteria ranking of energy generation scenarios with Monte Carlo simulation

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are omnipresent in energy policy analysis. Even though IAMs can successfully handle uncertainty pertinent to energy planning problems, they render multiple variables as outputs of the modelling. Therefore, policy makers are faced with multiple energy development scenarios and goals. Specifically, technical, environmental, and economic aspects are represented by multiple criteria, which, in turn, are related to conflicting objectives. Preferences of decision makers need to be taken into account in order to facilitate effective energy planning. Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) tools are relevant in aggregating diverse information and thus comparing alternative energy planning options. The paper aims at ranking European Union (EU) energy development scenarios based on several IAMs with respect to multiple criteria. By doing so, we account for uncertainty surrounding policy priorities outside the IAM. In order to follow a sustainable approach, the ranking of policy options is based on EU energy policy priorities: energy efficiency improvements, increased use of renewables, reduction in and low mitigations costs of GHG emission. The ranking of scenarios is based on the estimates rendered by the two advanced IAMs relying on different approaches, namely TIAM and WITCH. The data are fed into the three MCDM techniques: the method of weighted aggregated sum/product assessment (WASPAS), the Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) method, and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). As MCDM techniques allow assigning different importance to objectives, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to check the impact of perturbations in weights upon the final ranking. The rankings provided for the scenarios by different MCDM techniques diverge, first of all, due to the underlying assumptions of IAMs. Results of the analysis provide valuable insights in integrated application of both IAMs and MCDM models for developing energy policy scenarios and decision making in energy sector.

System Dynamics Modeling of Indium Material Flows under Wide Deployment of Clean Energy Technologies

Clean energy technologies represent a promising solution to the global warming challenge. Many clean energy technologies, however, depend on some rare materials and concerns have been raised recently. Indium is one of these materials as it is critical for two emerging energy applications, that is, Copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) photovoltaics (PV) and light-emitting diode (LED) lighting. This study analyzes the supply and demand of indium under different energy and technology development scenarios using a dynamic material flow analysis approach. A system dynamics model is developed to capture the time-changing stocks and flows related to supply and demand of indium over a 50-year time period, while considering carrier metal (i.e. zinc) production, price elasticity of demand, and indium usage in other applications (mainly liquid crystal display). Simulation results indicate that a shortage on indium is likely to occur in a short time period even under favorite case of indium supply. The rapid expansion of CIGS technology dominates indium demand in about 14 years, which outruns the growth of zinc mine production (thus indium supply). Sensitivity analysis suggests that model parameters related to solar PV market penetration, CIGS technology advancement, and price elasticity of indium demand have large effects on the total indium demand over simulation period. Eight scenarios combining projections on solar PV market growth, technology advancement, and zinc mine production are explored. It is observed that only under conservative estimates of solar PV market growth there is relatively enough indium supply to support the deployment. Even in these scenarios a shortage may occur toward the end of simulation.

Multiscale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change.

Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multiscale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods, including graph theory, circuit theory, and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this threatened Californian species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously distributed habitat and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

Low-income resident’s preferences for the location of wind turbine farms in the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

There is a general consensus that South Africa should be generating more power through harnessing renewable energy resources, such as wind power. However, there is no consensus with regard to the location of such generating projects. This paper describes a wind farm project proposed for development in the Kouga Local Municipality, reports low-income local residents’ preferences on its nature and applies choice modelling to analyse these preferences. A questionnaire was presented to each respondent, the discrete choice experiment component of the questionnaire included two different onshore wind energy development scenarios and a status quo option. The scenarios differed by the combination of four elements: the distance of the wind turbines from residential areas, job creation, the number of turbines and a subsidy allocated to each household.

Le bois, un matériau rare ? Vers une hiérarchie des usages du bois

The ecological transition has begun. With the latest IPPC report, we can no longer ignore the need for an economy that preserves natural resources and relies less on energies and materials produced from fossil sources. Part I of the article analyses the implications for forests as a result of climate change and the dual need for adaptation and mitigation : the functions of forests in respect of atmospheric carbon are described as characterised by the « 3Ss » : storage, sequestration, substitution. The author briefly details the risks to which forests are exposed by climate change and calls for the development of adaptive forest management practises. A numerical analysis is given for the period 1980-2010 relating to the primary and secondary processing sector, showing that « France is on the way to underdevelopment ». Part II describes government policies in recent years, underlining the imbalance between support provided for energy uses and support for uses as a material. Several energy or biomass product development scenarios in France and in Europe to 2030 and 2050 are considered, showing the that forest biomass will increasingly be called on to provide chemical and renewable energy uses. Part III explores the dynamics in place for better integrating policy action and inter-trade action, in particular the establishment of an industry strategy committee, an increasingly concerted approach between ministries towards policy actions, and the new Industrial France Plan for the construction of high-rise buildings made of wood. This Plan is seen as an instrument for restoring a suitable hierarchy of wood uses, under which construction timber is developed so that competitive processing sectors are relocated to France, generating byproducts that would reduce the current competition between uses.

Innovative method of RES integration into the regional energy development scenarios

Scarcity or abundance of energy resources usually depends on physical and geographical conditions in the region. However, the energy flow in the region also depends on the efficient use of energy resources, the consumption rate of energy and the possibility to use local renewable and non-renewable energy resources. Production, distribution and the use of energy resources in the region are the challenges for central and local government, business and social service, customers and other stakeholders. Development of regional energy economy should be optimized according to the available energy flow in the region using a network system analysis method, which provides solutions for developing sustainable energy economy models. The network system analysis method enables to optimize the use of local and renewable resources at the regional level and reveals available local energy resources. An efficient use of available regional resources and the use of renewable energy sources (RES) should be the main goals for the development of regional energy system. RES can compete with traditional fossil fuel with the condition that all hidden aspects are revealed. The network system analysis method enables to indicate energy flows in the region as well as indicate pros and cons of using renewable energy technologies.

Scenario Simulation and Policy Analysis on Energy Development in Qinghai Province

Solving China's severe energy problems relies on the efficient implementation of energy-related policies at the provincial level. On the context of 12th Five-Year Plan, most provinces’ energy developments are faced with the double pressures, that is, the rapid economy development and energy conservation. Thus, it is necessary to explore the scenarios of energy, economic and social development on the provincial level, especially in western developing provinces. This paper proposes a framework of economy and energy system including three major components: economy growth, population and energy intensity, to identify the regional energy balance and CO2 emission by 2015. With an application to Qinghai Province, policies related to energy development can be classified into three subcategories: economic and social development, energy development, and energy saving policies. Then, five scenarios are set and simulated to explore the energy balance and CO2 emission under the constraints of economic growth and energy intensity. Results show that in Qinghai, energy demands will increase by 90.37% in 2015 with a significant adjustment in industrial structure; and the implementation of the energy saving policies in Qinghai province is necessary. Besides, increasing production of clean energy can significantly reduce the consumption of fossil fuels and the environmental impact.

Wind versus coal: Comparing the local economic impacts of energy resource development in Appalachia

Two energy development scenarios were compared for the Coal River Mountain in Raleigh County, West Virginia: (1) mountaintop mining (MTM) of coal, and (2) wind energy plus underground mining of coal. Economic impact computations over the life of each energy development scenario were made on a county basis for output of goods and services, the number of jobs created, and local earnings. Externality costs were assigned monetary values for coal mining and subtracted from earnings. Premature mortality within the general population due to additional coal mining accounted for 96% of these external cost computations. The results showed that economic output over the life of each scenario was twice as high for MTM mining as wind energy plus underground coal mining. Over the short term, employment and earnings were higher for MTM mining, but towards the end of the scenario, cumulative employment and earnings became higher under scenario (2). When local externality costs were subtracted from local earnings, MTM coal production had an overall negative net social impact on the citizens of Raleigh County. The external costs of MTM coal production provide an explanation of the existence of a “resource curse” and the conflicting results of output versus income provide insights into why coal-producing counties are underdeveloped.

Western China energy development and west to east energy transfer: Application of the Western China Sustainable Energy Development Model

China is striving for coordinated regional economic development and to solve the energy shortage in eastern China through a western China development plan with one focus being energy development and west to east energy transfer. This paper describes Western China Sustainable Energy Development Model (WSED) to evaluate various energy development scenarios for western China. The model includes a Western China MARKAL model, a Computable General Equilibrium Model for Western China (WCGE), and an Energy Service Demand Projection Model (ESDP). The ESDP provides energy service demand projections for the Western China MARKAL model, while the WCGE provides macroeconomic inputs for the ESDP and analyzes the impact of different energy development scenarios on western China economy. A reference scenario and several different west to east energy transfer scenarios with and without consideration of the water constraints and the endogenous technology learning are presented. The modeling describes the energy consumption, carbon emissions, water consumption, energy investment cost, and the impact on western China GDP of the different scenarios through the year 2050. These results have implications on sustainable energy development policies and sustainable west to east energy transfer strategies.

Prospective scenarios of nuclear energy evolution on the XXIst century over the world scale

Different world scenarios of nuclear energy development over the XXIst century are analyzed in this paper, by means of the EDF fuel cycle simulation code for nuclear scenario studies, TIRELIRE – STRATEGIE. Two nuclear demand scenarios are considered, and the performance of different nuclear strategies in satisfying these scenarios is analyzed and discussed, focusing on the maximum deployable capacity and the natural uranium consumption. Both thermal-spectrum systems (Pressurized Water Reactor, PWR, and High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor, HTGR) and different designs of Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) are investigated. A sensitivity analysis on the FBR deployment date, Breeding Gain and fuel cycle options is also presented.

Innovative systems for sustainable nuclear energy generation and waste management

The limited amount of fossil resources, the impact of green-house gas emissions on the world climate, the rising demand of primary energy projected to 2050, lead to a potentially critical situation for the world energy supply. The need for alternative (to fossil energies) massive energy production is evaluated to 10 Gtoe. The potential of Nuclear Energy generation at the level of 5 Gtoe is examined. Such a sustainable production can only be met by a breeder reactor fleet for which a deployment scenario is described with the associated constraints. Waste management is discussed in connection with different nuclear energy development scenarios according to the point in time when breeder reactors are started. At the world level, it appears that the optimal handling of today's wastes rests on an early decision to develop tomorrow's breeder reactors.

Energy demand and emissions in 2030 in China: scenarios and policy options

Recent rapid growth of energy use in China now exerts great pressure on energy supply and the environment. This study provides scenarios of future energy development and resulting pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions, taking into account the most up-to-date data and recent policy discussions that will affect future economic, industrial, and energy supply trends. To address uncertainties, especially those surrounding the level of energy-intensive production in the next several decades, three scenarios were defined, which reasonably represent the range of plausible futures for energy development. The results from quantitative analysis show that energy demand in China could be as high as 2.9 billion toe (tons oil equivalent) in 2030, which could exceed the available energy supply. When compared with previous energy scenario studies, this result is much higher. By using various policy options discussed in the article, however, there is potential to reduce this high demand to 2.4 billion toe in 2030.

A study of wind energy contribution to global climate change mitigation

The greenhouse gas emissions are mainly caused by the use of organic fuel. Global constraints on the emissions of greenhouse gases (first of all CO2 as the main greenhouse gas) will greatly affect the energy structure of the world especially in some regions. An optimisation model of world energy (GEM-10R) was used to study long-term prospects of world energy development in general and wind energy development in particular. The results of the calculations for four scenarios of energy development in the 21st century are analysed. In Scenario 1 ('business as usual') there are no constraints on CO2 emissions. Scenario 2 supposes moderate constraints on CO2 emissions; Scenario 3, rigid constraints on emissions and simultaneously moderate constraints on nuclear energy, that is, alternative energy resource to organic fuels; Scenario 4, rigid constraints on CO2 emissions and moratorium on nuclear energy development. The possible scale of wind energy development in the 21st century is analysed for the above four scenarios in the context of the development of competing energy sources.

Environmental Problems and the Energy Sector in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

Abstract: The quality of human life depends intimately on the quality of the ecological system and environment in which we live. In many ways, the local and regional environment in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is currently at risk. These risks arise from human activities, often compounded by the effects of natural disasters such as the floods of 1995 and 1996. Although the environmental problems faced by the DPRK are hardly unique, the combination of the DPRK’s political and economic isolation, the current weakness of its economy, its longstanding juche philosophy, and its dependence on coal as an energy source make the potential impacts of environmental problems on the quality of life for North Koreans quite serious. Environmental problems in the DPRK can be divided into global and regional problems. This paper provides estimates of selected environmental impacts of energy sector activities based on conditions in 1990 and 1996, as well as estimates for the years 2000 and 2005, under two scenarios of energy and economic development in the DPRK. A discussion of potential environmental management strategies is also provided. There are many opportunities for regional cooperation to assist the DPRK in addressing its environmental problems and South Korea has a special role and interest in assisting the DPRK in these matters.

Assessment of mitigation measures and programs in Hungary

This paper describes the results of mitigation analyses for the Hungarian energy and forestry sectors made in the framework of the U. S. Country Studies Program. The model system ENPEP was used to model the energy sector. We estimated CO 2 emissions according to different scenarios of final energy demand growth and development of the power sector. In case of the forestry sector four long term scenarios have been developed by the COMAP-CASMOR model. Carbon sequestration and costs have been calculated.

Soviet Energy Dilemma and Prospects

The USSR is the largest energy producer and the second largest energy consumer in the world. Its share in global energy demand reached 1 7% in 1988. The USSR's higher energy intensity than in other industrialized coun­ tries can be partially justified by such factors as the climate, poor in­ frastructure, and vast territory; however, the low energy efficiency and high per capita energy consumption are also explained by an inefficient economic structure, a high level of material intensity, along with enormous wastes and losses, a backward technological level, and a large stock of obsolete, old equipment used in all sectors of the national economy, especially in the energy sector. Presently, the energy savings potential is approximately equal to half of domestic energy consumption. Improvement in energy efficiency at all levels of the national economy is the primary goal of the national energy policy for the next two decades. Though short-term energy prospects for the 1990s are quite uncertain, some fundamental ideas concerning long-term energy projections have emerged. Several long-term scenarios of energy development, among them a stabiliza­ tion of energy consumption after 2000-2005 and a 20% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2030, are investigated in this paper. Expected improvements in the Soviet energy system will require changes in energy management, includ­ ing reduction of centralized planning, decentralization and privatization of energy-producing enterprises, energy price reforms, reshaping of investment patterns, and persistence in conversion from military to civilian production.

A determination of e/m for an electron by direct measurement of the velocity of cathode rays : Charlotte T. Perry and E. L. Chaffee. ( Phys. Rev., Vol. 36, No. 5.)

Multi-region multi-sector energy-economic models are often used to analyze long-term scenarios of energy development, however, these models usually rely on a simplified representation of technological details in power generation. To strengthen this representation, we develop a method for modeling the economic competition between different advanced technologies in multi-region multi-sector dynamic energy-economic models based on a markup approach, which represents the measure of the cost of a technology relative to the price received for electricity generation. The markup includes capital costs, fixed and variable operating and maintenance (O&M) costs, fuel costs, and transmission and distribution (T&D) costs. For intermittent technologies, it also includes a backup requirement to make these technologies effectively dispatchable. For carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, it also includes the costs of CO2 capture, transportation and storage. We provide a standardized markup calculation for generation technologies for different regions of the world, including USA, China, India, EU, Japan and others. Then we analyze the sensitivity of the calculation to critical inputs, including capital costs, fuel costs, carbon prices and capacity factors. We provide a detailed calculation of the relative costs of the following technologies: new pulverized coal, new pulverized coal with CCS, natural gas combined cycle, natural gas with CCS, biomass-fueled plant, biomass with CCS, advanced nuclear, wind (for small and medium penetration levels), solar, wind with backup (for large penetration levels), co-firing of coal and biomass combined with CCS, and advanced CCS on natural gas. For illustration, we incorporate the markups into the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a global multi-sector multi-sector dynamic energy-economic model with a detailed representation of power generation technologies, and run several scenarios. Our analysis and results provide insight on the deployment of different low-carbon power generation technologies depending on assumptions about carbon policy stringency.