Energy Policy Development Research Articles

Time-Stratified Analysis of Electricity Consumption: A Regression and Neural Network Approach in the Context of Turkey

This study aims to apply seasonality and temporal effects in the analysis of electricity consumption in Turkey as a case mixed with regression and neural network methodologies. The study goal is to increase knowledge about the features and trending forces behind electricity usage which provide informed recommendations for smart energy planning and regulation. Comparing and contrasting the regression and neural network models makes it possible to carry out a thorough analysis of the merits and demerits of each model. Moreover, the examination of the limits of the models and their performance in forecasting electricity consumption patterns over the long term is done. The results of this study have a significant impact on power forecasting techniques, and they have meaningful effects on the policymakers, planners and utilities in Turkey. Understanding the story of the use of electricity around the world is very important for the development of sustainable energy policies, resource provision, and the maintenance of reliable and smart energy networks in the country.

Technoeconomic Analysis of a Wind Power Generation System and Wind Resource Mapping Using GIS Tools: The Case of Twelve Locations in the Commune of Evodoula, Cameroon

This paper performs a technoeconomic analysis of the wind power potential and evaluates the cost of wind power generation in Evodoula, comparing two methods, the conventional method and the uncertainty method based on a comparative spatiotemporal approach using the geographic information system (GIS) software tool. This study is based on satellite wind data measured at 10 m above ground level (AGL) over a 40-year period (1980-2019), by the meteorological service NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration)/Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The main objectives are to obtain an appropriate design for a proven optimal location and to assess the viability of wind power at Evodoula. For this type of study, there is little literature available. The optimization of an onshore wind farm and deployment in the wind energy development interest area (ZIDEE) is carried out to obtain a minimum and parsimonious discounted cost production unitary (CPU) of the electricity produced. The results showed that in Okok, a location with a large energy deficit, an onshore wind farm with an electricity generation capacity of 12.5 MW with 5 NORDEX N100-2.5MW wind turbines would have a total energy production (TEP) of about 64.0254825 TWh and a selling price of electricity that would be 0.0034 CAD$/kWh, which is very low compared to the utility price (about 98% cheaper). The total cost of the wind farm would be about $11 million, with a net present cost of about $218 million. The annual profit generated by the wind farm would be over $6 billion. The return on investment (ROI) of the project is estimated at 2880.882%. The constructed onshore wind farm would avoid CO2 emission at over 11 MtCO2,eq/year as the energy generated is from the atmosphere. The wind farm would realize an average annual cash flow estimated at nearly $30 million after 20 years of operation. These savings would allow the installation of CO2 capture systems in conventional power plants. In addition, the analysis of uncertainties and risks was identified and quantified to estimate the confidence levels of the project development results. The risks have been assessed, and we recommend that the total uncertainty of the project is around 15%. The energy values in P75 and P90 are 10.08% and 19.22%, respectively, lower than the energy value in P50 of 11.60 GWh/An. Finally, the main policy recommendations for an inclusive design process are highlighted. The contribution of this study is to assist policy makers in making appropriate decisions in the development and implementation of energy and environmental policy in Cameroon and in many continental areas.

Evolution of renewable energy laws and policies in China

This study employs Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic modelling methodology to analyze documents related to renewable energy laws and policies at the central level in China. The objective is to investigate the development and evolution of renewable energy policies in China and to gain insights into the national-level attitudes towards renewable energy development. The study consists of two phases: initially, renewable energy policy documents undergo keyword analysis using word clouds and keyword co-occurrence network analysis to elucidate the focal areas and their interconnections within the legal and policy texts. Subsequently, after determining the optimal number of topics for modelling based on topic perplexity and consistency results, the text undergoes data cleaning to isolate words with practical significance. These words are then incorporated into the LDA topic model to analyze the distribution and content of potential topics within the policies. Lastly, by linearly segmenting the time frame, changes in topic intensity over time are visually examined using heat maps. The findings indicate that energy policies have consistently prioritized “development” and emphasized the significance of “new energy” in renewable energy policies. Moreover, as renewable energy has progressed, governments and policymakers have come to acknowledge the importance of comprehensive energy planning, transitioning to clean energy sources, and regulating the electricity market. This growing awareness has led to efforts to strengthen policy and regulatory measures to foster renewable energy's sustainable development and utilization. In summary, this study highlights the effectiveness of the LDA topic model in analyzing renewable energy policies, advancing its adoption and furthering research in the field.

중국의 입지요인이 유형별 환경친화적 에너지 자원 개발에 미치는 영향

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors inf luencing energy development locations and how they affect electricity demand in order to better formulate strategies for efficient energy development. Research design, data, and methodology: This research used the VAR econometric model to analyze the impact of these factors on the generation and grid capacity of four power sources (wind, solar, hydro, and thermal) from 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions across China. Results: There is a linear positive correlation between the four power sources’ generation and grid capacities and economic factors, resource factors, and policy factors. Conclusions: This paper contributes to balanced energy development policies, broadens research perspectives, enhances public understanding, and serves as a valuable reference. Its findings carry significant theoretical and practical implications for scholars, researchers, and policymakers alike.

Comparative Analysis of ARIMA and BSTS Models for Electricity Price Forecasting in Major West Coast Cities

This study presents a detailed comparative analysis of two prominent statistical models, the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS), in the context of forecasting electricity prices in major West Coast cities of the United States, namely Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle. Utilizing historical electricity price data obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the research meticulously trains and tests both models, aiming to evaluate their predictive accuracy and reliability in dynamic urban energy markets. The core objective of this research is to ascertain the effectiveness of ARIMA and BSTS models in the realm of electricity price forecasting, with a particular emphasis on their applicability in urban settings characterized by rapid market evolution. Through this analysis, the study offers valuable insights that could significantly influence energy market forecasting and policy formulation. The findings are particularly relevant for stakeholders in the energy sector, including policymakers and market strategists, as they navigate the complexities and challenges of modern energy landscapes. This research contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of statistical modeling techniques in energy market analysis and provides a foundation for more informed decision-making in energy policy and strategy development.

Choosing to Pay More for Electricity: An Experiment on the Level of Residential Consumer Cooperation

Reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions is necessary in the fight against climate change. We are interested in the situation of Quebec (Canada), where low-cost hydropower sold below market value, akin to a consumption subsidy, leads to high residential consumption. We conducted an experiment to test whether individuals would be willing to pay more for electricity. Increasing regulated prices closer to their market value would result in a direct welfare gain and free some green energy, reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs) in other sectors. Giving clear and transparent information on the consequences of the price increase induces a majority of people to choose to pay more. In addition to the economic benefit of the public good, the presence of the environmental benefit increases contributions. Participants with a more-severe budget constraint tend to contribute less. These results are encouraging for the development of efficient energy policies reducing GHG emissions.

Dynamic role of clean energy and sustainable economic growth in coastal region: Novel observations from China

China's coastal region is the major geographical unit for the future development of China's industrial sector. The transformation of basic structure to high-class development in China's coastal places is a significant tool for promoting the changes related to quality, power and efficiency in regional economic development. In the 21st century, environmental and energy issues have increased worldwide, and challenges related to environmental pollution, energy crises, and ecological imbalances have emerged. To climate change and energy utilization, the sustainable progress of clean energy is the new route of future energy development. Based on China's non-polluting energy growth process in the last ten years, this article explores China's clean/green energy policies and economic growth development plans. Clean energy utilization is crucial for sustainable development in the context of high-quality economic growth and climate change. However, the monetary evolution and carbon emission are not investigated whole from the clean energy aspects. Using Wind energy sources as the acceptable variable, this paper employs threshold regression and impulse functions to assess the energy consumption and economic growth on carbon emission in 30 Chinese provinces over the 2000 to 2020 period. The Deep Belief Network (DBN) model predicts wind energy utilization and efficiency. The results show that economic development and carbon emissions are connected. Further, growth influences promote the offset of carbon emissions. Green innovation alters the nexus of carbon emissions, and China's economy reduces carbon usage. It provides the decision-making policies for clean energy development.

Forecasting of Brazilian CO2 emissions from nonlinear models: a review

Brazil is a developing country that emits high amounts of CO2 and, in order to comply with the Paris Agreement, it has committed to reducing 43% of its emissions by 2030 in relation to 2005. To achieve this objective, it is necessary to understand which variables contribute with these emissions and develop Energy Policies that reduce them without harming the country's energy generation, which is fundamental to its development. To understand the main factors that affect Brazilian CO2 emissions and predict their trend in the coming years, mathematical modeling has been used as a tool. This article provides a synthesis of the literature, presenting the main methods used to predict Brazilian CO2 emissions, as well as the variables with the greatest influence on them. From this review, it is concluded that non-linear mathematical models, such as Artificial Neural Networks and Gray Model, are more accurate in their predictions compared to linear models. Furthermore, variables such as economic growth and a country's energy consumption have a great influence on CO2 emissions, especially when fossil fuels are the main energy source.

Energy Labels and Consumer Attitudes: A Study among University Staff

This study investigates energy label awareness among Gazi University staff, exploring the influence of demographic factors on attitudes and perceptions. Using the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), the research examines individual attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control in shaping energy efficiency awareness. A cross-sectional survey of academic and administrative staff reveals significant differences in awareness across demographic groups. Gender-specific variations in attitudes towards energy-efficient products are evident, with the greatest difference observed between female (M = 3.93, SD = 1.16) and male staff (M = 3.58, SD = 1.30) on Capacity (I-11) (Z = −2.805, p = 0.005 < 0.05). Education level also significantly influences awareness scores, particularly on the status symbol item (I-18) (χ2 = 24.543, p = 0.00 < 0.05). These findings, analyzed through Wilcoxon Rank Sum and Kruskal–Wallis Tests, provide nuanced insights into the demographic factors impacting energy label awareness. Interpretation of the findings on the complex relationship between demographic characteristics and energy label awareness with TPB provided valuable insights. The practical implications of the study highlight the imperative for tailored communication strategies and targeted interventions to raise awareness among different staff groups. By addressing these nuanced factors, the study significantly contributes to the development of effective energy policies, fostering a sustainable and energy-conscious academic community.

Assessing Hydropower Potential under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Scenarios Using Integrated Assessment Modelling

The world is facing a global sustainability crisis affecting environmental systems and society. Addressing these issues requires a multi-dimensional approach that can integrate energy, water, and environment Systems, as well as provide scientific policy advice. In this study, an updated version of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) was used, together with new data compatible with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) projections, to significantly improve the work developed before. SSP climate data (temperature, precipitation, and total radiative forcing) and socioeconomic data (population and GDP) were loaded into the IAM, together with different scenario parameters. By analyzing varying socioeconomic scenarios, mitigation efforts, and adaptation strategies, this study assesses their impact on primary energy demand and, consequently, their impact on hydropower potential production. Our results show diverse energy paths, strongly dependent on the future scenario. Energy demand could increase up to 160%; however, several projections foresee a decline in hydropower production to minus 46% due to both climate change and socioeconomic transformation. Our findings highlight the importance of considering a range of potential future scenarios in energy planning and policy development. The varied outcomes across the considered scenarios emphasize the need for flexibility in strategies to accommodate for uncertainties and address the challenges posed by divergent trajectories in hydropower use and renewable energy shares.

GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS OF THE POTENTIAL OF THE TERRITORIES OF UKRAINE FOR THE LOCATION OF SOLAR POWER PLANTS BASED ON SATELLITE DATA

Climate change necessitates the relevance of renewable energy utilization worldwide. The Green Deal defines the energy development policy in Europe until 2030. This challenge holds particular significance for Ukraine in the context of post-war energy infrastructure recovery. Therefore, an important issue is the analysis of the suitability of Ukrainian territories for the installation of large-scale solar power plants (solar farms) and the optimization of their placement. This research aims to determine the suitability of Ukrainian territories for solar power plant placement using satellite data on climate and terrain characteristics. Among the factors determining the suitability of the territory for solar farms, the greatest impact lies in climatic indicators, including data on the total global horizontal solar irradiation (GHI), accumulated temperature above 25 °C at a height of 2 meters, average annual wind speed, and map of accumulated annual precipitation from the ERA5-Land dataset. In this study, terrain maps containing information on elevations, slopes, and terrain shading from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) project were also used to determine the suitability of the territories. The suitability of the territories is determined through geospatial analysis using weighted sums. Based on the research results, a suitability map was constructed, depicting the distribution of zones with different suitability coefficients (ranging from 0 to 1). It was found that a significant portion of Ukraine’s territory is favorable for the placement of solar power plants. Over 48 % of the country has moderate suitability values (0.3…0.4). The obtained suitability map was used to analyze the optimal placement of already constructed major solar power plants in Ukraine. Data from Wikimapia was utilized to determine the locations of these energy facilities. Overall, all the analyzed large-scale solar power plants in Ukraine were situated in optimal territories. The research also revealed that certain regions, such as Odesa, Poltava, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Donetsk, and Luhansk, have good suitability values (0.3…0.4) but are not fully utilized. These areas have significant potential for the future construction of powerful and productive solar power plants

Implementation of the Energy Justice Concept in Strategies and Projects of Foreign Energy Companies

Introduction. The given article examines the challenges of ensuring energy justice in business models of energy companies. It identifies ways in which organizations and businesses providing energy services locally, regionally and internationally can successfully integrate social justice values into business strategies, ensuring that their operations are aligned with the principles of equitable provision of energy services.Materials and methods. Materials used for the given research include foreign and Russian studies on energy justice issues, statistical data and news sources from the world media. The methodological basis consists of such scientific methods as qualitative and quantitative analysis, synthesis, comparative research and statistical analysis.Results of the study. Analysis of the activities of foreign energy companies suggests that energy justice is a highly effective “tool” not only from the point of view of conceptualizing the theoretical idea of an energy just world and effectively analyzing a wide range of energy-related issues, but can also be considered as a valuable contribution to the actual process of developing energy policy and a framework for assessing the sustainability of energy-related projects and initiatives. The concept of a public interest company based on the principles of energy and social justice can be defined as a set of guidelines aimed at transforming existing business practices to ensure that these practices are consistent with the principles of energy justice.Discussion and conclusions. The given re­search revealed that the degree of adherence to energy justice principles determines whether certain business practices or specific projects are consistent with its paradigm. At the same time, as evidenced by available scientific research on this issue, commercial activity and the creation of social and environmental values are not internally contradictory concepts. On the contrary, energy justice guidelines and aspects can be successfully integrated into various business models at local, subnational, regional and global levels.

Japan’s role in the emerging global hydrogen market

The article analyzes the current state of the emerging low-carbon hydrogen market in terms of its main parameters: capacity, geographical segments, technologies, investments, and announced projects. Estimates for the development of the low-carbon hydrogen market up to 2050 have been summarized. Barriers to its development and the reasons for different estimates of market capacity have been identified. There are three large-scale geographic market segments: the Asia-Pacific region, North America, and the European Union. The reasons why the energy transition in Japan will be based on low-carbon hydrogen are described. Japan’s state policy in this area is supported by investments and institutional conditions. The timeline of Japan’s energy policy development shows the determination to create a hydrogen economy. The goals of Japan’s international cooperation are to solve the problems of resource provision (agreements with potential exporters of hydrogen and countries provided with resources necessary for the production of new materials and equipment within the entire technological chain of hydrogen production) and to search for markets for Japanese hydrogen technologies. Japan’s main agreements with countries and regions of the world in this area and large-scale projects implemented to date in terms of creating international hydrogen supply chains are systematized. The role of Japan as an initiator of the development of international interactions and the formation of a global market for low-carbon hydrogen, as well as a market leader in terms of public policy, availability of technology, large-scale investment and international cooperation is substantiated. It has been determined that Japan’s high activity in international projects and agreements on the development of hydrogen technologies and hydrogen supply chains determines the country’s leading role in stimulating the development of the global hydrogen market at the current stage. Japan’s activity is leading to an increase in the number of international cooperation agreements, recognition by other countries of the key role of hydrogen in the energy transition, and the adoption by more and more countries of their national hydrogen strategies. It was revealed that due to the high cost of Japanese equipment used in the production of “green” hydrogen, the country is likely to lose in competition for market niches in the global hydrogen market.

Factors Influencing the Financing of Renewable Energy Projects for Sustainable Development Goals with a Fuzzy Cognitive Map Approach

Objective: The aim of this study is to analyze the factors influencing the financing of renewable energy projects to achieve sustainable development goals using a fuzzy cognitive map approach. Methodology: This applied research was conducted in both qualitative and quantitative sections. In the qualitative section, content analysis with a conventional and directed approach was employed, and in the quantitative section, a causal method was used. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews in the qualitative phase and pairwise comparison questionnaires in the quantitative phase. The participants were senior managers and experts from the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Organization (SATBA), selected using purposive and theoretical sampling (a total of 21 participants). Findings: The qualitative findings revealed key influencing factors, including "social responsibility," "direct and indirect government support," "sustainable economic development," "environmental sustainability," "support from financial funds," "commercial creditworthiness of financial suppliers," "foresight and capital planning," "financial capacities," "investment return policies," "empowerment of financial institutions," "renewable energy development policies," "investment culture in renewable energy," and "optimal management of investment risks." The fuzzy cognitive map results showed that "direct and indirect government support for the energy industry" had the highest output and influence, while "commercial creditworthiness of financial suppliers" had the highest input power and susceptibility to influence. Conclusion: This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the factors affecting the financing of renewable energy projects. It highlights the critical roles of government support policies and the commercial creditworthiness of financial suppliers in the success of these projects, suggesting that improvements in these areas can contribute to achieving sustainable development goals.

New and Renewable Energy Policy Implementation for Sustainable Development

Humans are the driving force in all activities on this earth, for this reason human individuality is an important point, to accelerate himself and hone his skills properly, in order to optimize his function as an individual creature. Besides that, because humans also live in society (Zoon Politicon) they must also contribute to the order of life of society and the state as mandated by the constitution, the existence of control and exploitation of natural resources that are fundamental to the life of the nation and state is carried out by the state, including energy natural resources that can be encouraging the growth and improvement of just law, as well as the application of new and renewable energy policies for sustainable development in Indonesia. Based on constitutional support and the need for a legal umbrella to protect new and renewable energy, it is necessary to regulate it comprehensively. This study aims to determine the application of new renewable energy policies for sustainable development. This research method uses a normative juridical research method with a case approach and statutory approach (statute approach). The implementation of new renewable energy policies for sustainable development shows that it has not been optimally implemented, especially in Indonesia, while Indonesia has the potential for large sources of new and renewable energy. However, utilization of this potential is still not maximized due to technological limitations and economic considerations. The business scheme and types of new renewable energy generators which are still small scale are not yet optimal, and the interconnection system is still limited. Therefore, the need for an important urgency in regulating the application of new and renewable energy policies for sustainable development must have a legal basis in its implementation.

Renewable Energy Transition Task Solution for the Oil Countries Using Scenario-Driven Fuzzy Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making Models: The Case of Azerbaijan

The renewable energy transition of oil- and gas-producing countries has specific peculiarities due to the ambivalent position of these countries in the global energy market, both as producers and consumers of energy resources. This task becomes even more challenging when the share of oil and gas in the country’s GDP is very high. These circumstances pose serious challenges for long-term energy policy development and require compromising decisions to better align the existing and newly created energy policies of the country. The scale, scope, and pace of changes in the transition process must be well balanced, considering the increasing pressure of economic and environmental factors. The objective of this paper is to develop models that allow the selection of the most appropriate scenario for renewable energy transition in an oil- and gas-producing country. The distinguishing feature of the proposed model is that alternatives in the decision matrix are presented as scenarios, composed of a set of energy resources and the level of their use. Linguistic descriptions of the alternative scenarios are formalized in the form of fuzzy statements. For the problem solution, four different Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods were used: the fuzzy simple additive weighting (F-SAW) method, the distance-based fuzzy TOPSIS method (Technique of Order Preference Similarity to the Ideal Solution), the ratio-analysis-based fuzzy MOORA method (Multi-Objective Optimization Model Based on the Ratio Analysis), and the fuzzy multi-criteria optimization and compromise solution method VIKOR (Serbian: VIekriterijumsko Kompromisno Rangiranje). This approach is illustrated using the example of the energy sector of Azerbaijan. The recommended solution for the country involves increasing natural gas (NG) moderately, maintaining hydro, and increasing solar notably and wind moderately.

“I participate. You participate. He participates. We participate. You participate. Do they profit?” Brief reflections on the forms of citizen participation according to the Directive (EU) 2019/944 on the Internal Market of Electricity and the Directive (EU) 2018/2001 on Renewable Energy Sources

This article aims to identify the primary forms of citizen participation within the European energy regulatory framework, focusing on decentralised energy production and its intersection with the right to the city and environmental, climate, and energy-related concerns. The article is structured in two sections. The first section addresses the rise of the right to the city, tracing its emergence as a category within urban sociology until its legal recognition as a human right, which guarantees the fruition of urban rights and the promotion of democratic participation in the construction of the urban model. It also analyses the urban phenomenon as a result of the expansion of the urban fabric and a way of life supported by a model of entrepreneurship and commodification of cities. In the second section, there is a brief contextualisation of the development of European energy policy, and it identifies the forms of citizen participation outlined in the Directive (EU) 2019/944 on the Internal Electricity Market, and the Directive (EU) 2018/2001 on Renewable Energy Sources, especially the Citizen Energy Communities (CEC) and Renewable Energy Communities (REC). Finally, the article highlights some risks that should be considered to ensure that market interests do not co-opt mechanisms of citizen participation in the energy sector to the detriment of promoting the right to the city.

Elusive trade-off: The solution to energy poverty and GHG emissions in Africa

A groundbreaking strategy known as "coopetition" has emerged to provide energy access to underserved populations in Africa while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This approach, applied across 54 African nations, combines cooperation and competition, supported by a comprehensive financial framework encompassing financial development, foreign direct investment (FDI), and official development assistance (ODA). Utilizing advanced moderated multiple regression analysis with data from reliable international sources and IBM SPSS Statistics (Version 28.0.1.1 (14)), this study highlights the strong connection between financial resources, energy poverty, and emissions. Inadequate financial support hinders renewable energy adoption and policy development, contributing to rising emissions. The research explores how coopetition modifies the relationship between ODA and energy poverty while reinforcing links between coopetition, ODA, and reduced emissions. Notably, the study challenges conventional wisdom by debunking the direct influence of financial development and foreign direct investment on energy poverty and emissions. Instead, it underscores the importance of transparent regulations, robust financial structures, and risk mitigation in advancing sustainable energy solutions.

Determinants of the renewable energy consumption: The case of Asian countries

In recent year, Asia has rapid economic growth and policy makers care about the renewable energy consumption. The motivation about the choice of variables with theory and empirical backing on the subject in the manuscript is the theory of Cobb- Douglas function and determinants of renewable energy consumption in the Asian countries. This paper investigates the nexus of electricity consumption, fossil fuel consumption, foreign direct investment inflows, economic growth, and renewable energy consumption in Asian countries. Utilizing panel data analysis, the study finds significant interrelationships among these factors and highlights their implications for energy policy and sustainable development in the region. This article aims to use the Cobb- Douglas Model to analyze the factors affecting renewable energy consumption at Asian developed countries for sustainable development goals. This study collected data from World Bank in the period 2000–2020 of 06 developed countries such as Japan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Israel and China. The empirical research results show that the electricity consumption, fossil fuel consumption, foreign direct investment inflows, economic growth affect the environmental pollution in 06 Asian developed countries. The electricity consumption, foreign direct investment inflows, economic growth positively affect to the renewable energy consumption. If the electricity consumption increases 1 % then the renewable energy consumption up 0.6 %; if the foreign direct investment inflows up 1 % then the renewable energy consumption up 0.82 %; If the economic growth up 1 % then renewable energy up 2.73 %. In addition, fossil fuel consumption negatively affects the renewable energy consumption. If the fossil fuel consumption increases 1 % then the renewable energy consumption down 0.26 %. The paper offers conclusions and recommendations for Asian countries to address these interconnected issues and transition towards a more sustainable energy future.

Impact of carbon emission trading and renewable energy development policy on the sustainability of electricity market: A stackelberg game analysis

Optimizing the electricity structure and achieving sustainable development are critical objectives in the current electricity market. To facilitate a low-carbon transition, China is planning to implement renewable energy development policies based on carbon emissions trading (CET), which includes feed-in premiums (FIP), renewable portfolio standards (RPS), and their corresponding green certificate trading mechanisms. However, it remains to be seen how these policies will work together to promote the growth and adoption of renewable energy sources in China. Accordingly, this paper aims to establish a Stackelberg game model of the electricity market under the two types of combination policy scenarios of CET-FIP and CET-RPS and compare the influence of different combination policies on the development of the renewable energy industry. The results show that: (1) Compared with a single renewable energy development policy, CET-RPS and CET-FIP policies can effectively reduce carbon emissions. (2) In the long run, the CET-RPS policy has a stronger ability to reduce emissions, and the CET-FIP policy has stronger economic benefits. (3) In the early stage of renewable energy development, electricity generation, profit of power generation companies, and social welfare are higher under the CET-RPS policy, while in the mature stage of renewable energy development, these important performance indices become better under the CET-FIP policy. (4) Under the CET-RPS policy, an increase in carbon price will result in an increase in on-grid price and a decrease in green certificate price. In contrast, under the CET-FIP policy, an increase in carbon price will lead to an increase in on-grid price and premium subsidy.