Energy Consumption In Turkey Research Articles

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ON THE DETERMINANTS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN TURKEY

Turkey has experienced rapid population growth, rapid urbanization and industrialization in recent years. Therefore, Turkey's demand for energy has been increasing over the years. Also the main issue is Turkey's foreign dependency on energy resources. Researching the determinants of energy consumption is important in terms of developing policies for more efficient use of energy. For this reason, the determinants of energy consumption in Turkey were analyzed using the ARDL Boundary Test and the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, based on data from 1980-2020. While fossil fuel energy consumption as the dependent variable in the model, GDP, export rate and the ratio of fixed capital investments to GDP are independent variables. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there is a longrun relationship between the variables. An increase in economic growth by 1 percent, increases energy consumption by 0.34%. An increase in exports by 1 percent increases energy consumption by 0.57% in the long run while an increase in fixed capital investments by 1 percent, increases energy consumption by 0.15%. As a result of the causality analysis, it was concluded that there is one-way causality from GDP growth to energy consumption. It has been determined that there is a one-way causality running from fixed capital investments and exports to energy consumption.

Enerji Tüketiminin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Frekans Alanda Nedensellik Analizi

One of the most important indicators of the production channels of developed and developing countries is undoubtedly the energy problem. In addition, the nexus between economic growth and energy use differs from country to country. The main purpose of this article is to examine the nexus between economic growth and energy consumption in Turkey in the period of 2016 and 2022. Daily electricity consumption is used as an indicator of energy consumption, and industrial production index data is used as an indicator of economic growth. Toda-Yamamoto (1995) and Breitung-Candelon (2006) frequency domain tests were used to determine for the causality. According to the outcomes of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, a unidirectional causality relationship was found from economic growth to energy consumption in the long run. Breitung- Candelon frequency domain causality test results revealed a short (temporary) and long (permanent) relationship from economic growth to energy consumption. In Türkiye, increases in economic growth (expansion of the production channel), increase the energy need more and thus this situation increases import dependency.

Investigation of Shocks on Primary Energy Consumption in Turkey with Fourier Based Unit Root Tests

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de birincil enerji kaynakları olan petrol, kömür ve doğal gaz değişkenlerinin tüketimine gelen şokların kalıcı mı geçici mi olduğunu araştırmaktır. Enerji’nin bir hayat kaynağı oluşu ve her ekonomi düzeyi için önem arz etmesinden dolayı konu üzerine çalışma yapmayı teşvik etmektedir. Değişkenlerimizin verileri Amerika Birleşik Devletleri Enerji Bilgi İdaresinden (EİA) alınmıştır. Doğal gaz tüketimi verisi 1982-2019 dönemini kapsarken petrol ve kömür tüketimi verileri 1971-2019 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Değişkenler için ilgili dönemlerde şokların kalıcı mı geçici mi olduğu Fourier Augmented Dickey Fuller (FADF) birim kök testi ve Fourier Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (FKPSS) durağanlık testi ile analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre doğal gaz, petrol ve kömür tüketimine gelen şokların kalıcı olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu bulgular bize ülkemizde doğal gaz, kömür ve petrol tüketiminde çalışmaların gözden geçirilip iyileştirici yönde çalışmalar yapılması gerektiğini göstermektedir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre doğal gaz, petrol ve kömür tüketimi serilerinin birim köklü olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu da tüketime gelen şokların kalıcı olduğu bilgisini vermektedir.

The determinants of household electricity demand in Turkey: An implementation of the Heckman Sample Selection model

Residential areas have a significant share in electrical energy consumption in Turkey. At this point, determining electricity consumption demand in residential areas will significantly contribute to ensuring energy efficiency throughout the country. Accurate econometric modelling of the relationships between the various socio-economic characteristics of households and their energy consumption/expenditure can serve as a basis for policymakers when planning investments aimed at efficiency on primary energy consumption in residences. Considering these issues, this study aims to examine the electricity consumption demand in residential areas in Turkey in terms of various socio-economic and building and property characteristics variables. At this point, the fact that some households have zero electricity consumption has led to the need to use censored regression models. The Heckman Sample Selection model was used, which makes it possible to estimate the consumption decision of individuals in two stages and eliminates the parameter bias problem caused by linear regression analysis. Heckman Sample Selection modelling was carried out in the study using Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) 2019 Household Budget Survey data. According to the results, it has been determined that annual disposable income, various demographic variables (age, education level, marital status), characteristics of the house (size) and the presence of various electrical household appliances (air conditioner, tumble dryer, deep freezer) have significant effects on electricity consumption. The systematic preparation of informative brochures on the effective use of household electrical appliances can significantly contribute to efficiency. In addition, in countries like Turkey that depend on foreign energy, providing incentives towards renewable energy sources is considered necessary to contribute to the country's economy positively.

The Impact of Political Stability on Environmental Quality in the Long Run: The Case of Turkey

In the 21st century, environmental problems are considered the biggest challenges. Turkey is one of the emerging markets that need to improve the quality of their environment. In the literature, how political risk affects the environment in Turkey has not been studied. In order to contribute to the issue, this study aims to determine the impact of political stability on the quality of the environment in Turkey. The present study investigates the effect of political stability on environmental quality, taking into account the critical role of economic growth, environmental regulation, patents in environmental technologies, and renewable energy consumption in Turkey from 1990 to 2019. The present study used nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models to investigate the effect of political stability on environmental quality in Turkey. The empirical findings show that political stability in Turkey reduces environmental deregulation by declining CO2 emissions. Similarly, patents in environmental technologies and renewable energy consumption positively contribute to the environmental quality in Turkey by decreasing CO2 emissions. On the other hand, economic growth has a significant positive effect on CO2 emissions. This study suggests that political stability is an important indicator of environmental quality in Turkey. In order to ensure the continuity of Turkey’s environmental sustainability, political tension in the country should be controlled by politicians, and it is recommended that Turkey should turn to and invest in renewable energy sources by following technological innovation.

Energy Consumption in Agricultural of Turkey

In this study, sectoral energy consumption and the share of sectors in total energy consumption in Turkey between the years 2017-2021 were examined. While the amount of energy consumed in the agricultural sector in Turkey was 4227 thousand TOE in 2017, it reached 5029 thousand TOE in 2021. The increase in energy consumption in agriculture occurred irregularly in the 5-year period specified. While the increase in energy consumption in agriculture was 8.37% in 2018 compared to the previous year, it was 2.85% in 2019 and 3.03% in 2021. In Turkey, the increase in energy consumption in agriculture in the period between 2017 and 2021 was calculated as 4.98%. In the specified period, the share of the industrial sector in total energy consumption was 32.30% on average, while the share of the agricultural sector was 4.16%.

Climate change, the by-product of tourism and energy consumption through a sustainable economic growth: a non-linear ARDL analysis for Turkey.

Using a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag time-series analysis, this paper investigates the causal relationship between climate change, the tourism sector, and energy consumption in Turkey. The trade-off between a country's economic growth and the environmental degradation caused by tourism and the energy sector is critical in terms of scientifically addressing the issue and developing economic policies. As a result, climate change is used as the dependent variable and is represented by precipitation and temperature separately; the independent variables are tourist arrivals, energy consumption, and economic growth. Data is gathered by various institutions from 1995 to 2020. According to the test results, while positive and negative shocks contribute to the decrease in precipitation and temperature in renewable energy consumption (REC) in thelong-run, they affect the increase in precipitation and temperature in non-renewable energy consumption (NREC). In the long-run relationship between tourism and temperature, a decrease in the number of tourist arrivals causes a decrease in temperature and precipitation. The findings reveal that a decrease in the number of tourist arrivals and an increase in REC may aid in decreasing temperature, while the increase in NREC may cause an increase in temperature. Through a case study of Turkey, decision-makers should consider these scientific findings that are in the frame of non-linear analysis as possible scenarios for mitigating climate change and fostering sustainable economic growth with efficient tourism policies for the world.

ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RENEWABLE ENERGY AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS FOR TURKEY

Foreign direct investments provide advantages in the growth and development processes of countries. The increase in foreign direct investments with the globalization process in the last 50 years has created some effects on the economies of countries, especially on economic growth and employment opportunities. Among these effects, it is known that foreign direct investments have effects on the energy sector. The renewable energy sector, which is a rising area of the energy sector, is also positively or negatively affected by foreign direct investments. For this reason, the aim of the study is to examine the relationship between 1990-2019 data and renewable energy consumption in Turkey, foreign direct investments and GDP. In this study, Banerjee et al. (2017) Fourier ADL cointegration test analysis was used. According to the results of the analysis, there is no cointegration relationship between foreign direct investments, renewable energy consumption and GDP in Turkey. It is thought that renewable energy consumption will increase if foreign direct investments in Turkey are realized in a way that supports clean energy areas and usage.
 
 This study is an extended version of the paper presented at the International Conference on Empirical Economics and Social Sciences (ICEESS'22) held in Bandırma – Turkey on July 2-3, 2022.

ENERGY CONSUMPTION FORECAST FOR TURKEY'S TRANSPORTATION SECTOR IN 2030

Aim: Energy consumption in Turkey is increasing due to population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, increasing consumption and the widespread use of technological products. In Turkey, which imports more than half of its energy needs, in addition to meeting the energy need from domestic and renewable resources, energy efficiency studies in sectors with high energy consumption are of great importance. When the sectors with high energy consumption are examined, it is seen that the transportation sector has a high rate of 25%. By estimating how much energy Turkey, which is dependent on foreign energy, will consume in which sector in the coming years, it will guide the correct planning of renewable energy resources investments and energy efficiency studies. Method: The amount of energy to be consumed in the transportation sector until 2030 has been estimated by using the data on population, GDP and motor vehicle amounts and final energy consumption amounts in the transportation sector, using machine learning algorithms; Random forest, Support vector machine and artificial neural networks (ANN) methods. Results: As a result of the analysis, it was seen that the ANN method gave the most appropriate result for this study. The average training and test regression values obtained by ANN for five cross validations were 0.9968 ± 0.0019 and 0.9978 ± 0.0013, respectively. As a result of the estimation, it was calculated that 31.391 thousand Tons of Oil Equivalent (TOE) of energy will be consumed in the transportation sector in 2030. Conclusion: In Turkey, where energy consumption in the transportation sector is increasing every year and Turkey is a country that meets its energy needs from imported sources, shifting a significant portion of freight and passenger transportation in road transportation, which is used intensively among transportation types, to rail and maritime transportation, where energy consumption is more efficient, will reduce energy consumption. In addition, energy efficiency studies in every sector will contribute to the national economy. Reduced energy consumption will also reduce CO2 emissions.

Advanced thermodynamics analysis for sustainable residential sector: a case study of Turkish residential sector.

Energy sustainability plays a crucial role in the development of any country. With the booming economy of Turkey, it is necessary to ensure energy sustainability in every sector. The residential sector plays a vital role in energy consumption in Turkey and improving sustainability in this sector can foster Turkey's development. This study introduced first-time sustainability indicators of Turkey's residential sector to determine the energy and exergy analyses through a thermodynamics-derived approach based on the data from 2000 to 2017. Monte Carlo simulations have been performed for energy source variation. Possible distribution uncertainties show that natural gas (0.78-0.76), biofuels, and waste (0.39-0.43) are dominant parameters for energy and exergy. Improvement of biofuels and waste, renewable-based energy sources can be a feasible solution for fossil fuel replacement. In Turkey's residential sector, energy efficiency varies from 27.51 to 35.65%, while exergy efficiency ranges from 25.85 to 34.06%. The sustainability index for Turkey ranges from 1.34 to 1.51. In Turkey, around 65.93 to 74.14% of fossil fuel has been depleted in the last 18years, which leads to lesser exergetic sustainability. Inefficient cooking, heating appliances, and lighting devices lead to higher exergy loss. Therefore, this study demonstrates the exergy analysis and prediction of the upcoming consequences of this analysis. In the future, Turkey can use higher efficient devices, especially in heating, lighting, and mechanical energy-related appliances, and electricity can be used to attain higher exergetic efficiency. Performed analysis and uncertainties of parameters will assist policymakers in selecting suitable alternative strategies in Turkey's residential sector for sustainable decision-making.

Assessing drivers of residential energy consumption in Turkey: 2000–2018

The residential sector, which represents one-third of global energy consumption and 40 % of CO2 emissions, has recently gained more attention with the long-term ambitious climate targets. The right pathway can be tracked by unveiling energy efficiency potential in residential buildings. This study aims to understand the reasons behind the increase in Turkish residential energy consumption and conduct a quantitative analysis to calculate the contribution of energy efficiency improvements to reduce energy consumption in Turkey between 2000 and 2018 using the decomposition analysis methodology Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index-I. Results show that the increase in population and wealth leads to a rise in residential energy consumption by 4.95 mtoe and 9.01 mtoe, respectively. The milder climatic conditions have resulted in a 2.25 mtoe reduction in space heating energy consumption. Energy efficiency resulted in a saving of 9.16 mtoe energy during the analysis period. Improvements in space heating made the most significant contribution to energy savings. Because of the increased ownership rates of dishwashers and washing machines, the only end-use -where energy intensity did not improve- is seen as domestic hot water. The analysis also revealed that the Energy Efficiency Law and its secondary legislation have significantly accelerated energy efficiency improvements. The methods employed in this study can simply be adapted to any country to enlighten the policymakers in choosing the best policy options.

An empirical investigation between renewable energy consumption, globalization and human capital: A dynamic auto-regressive distributive lag simulation

This study analyzes the dynamic effects of overall globalization and its three sub-dimensions (economic globalization, political globalization, and social globalization) on renewable energy consumption in Turkey using annual data from 1980 to 2017. As an estimation technique, the dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulation (dynamic ARDL) developed by Jordan and Philips (2018) is employed. The results indicate that the overall globalization process, both in the short-run and in the long run, and its dimensions of economic and political globalization, only in the long-run, have positive and significant effects on Turkey's renewable energy consumption. However, social globalization does not have any significant effect on renewable energy consumption either in the short-run and in the long run. Additionally, increases in Turkey's human capital stock and economic growth rate appear to cause more renewable energy consumption. Based on those results, some important policy implications encouraging the globalization and economic growth processes and enriching the human capita stock are suggested.

The impact of the US interest rate and oil prices on renewable energy in Turkey: a bootstrap ARDL approach.

This research investigates the spillover effect of the US interest rate and oil prices on renewable energy utilization in Turkey. By employing a novel bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag approach on annual data from 1985 to 2016, the empirical findings and discussions represent the first contribution to the energy economics literature. The findings of this research confirm that the US interest rate has a significant spillover effect on the use of renewable energy in Turkey through the channels of income and local interest rate. Due to limited foreign exchange reserves, high foreign debt, low international reserves, and devaluation of the local currency, the Turkish economy is highly intertwined with the US economy through international investment and trade. All these factors reinforce the spillover influence of the US interest rate on energy consumption in Turkey. Moreover, this study affirms that the price of oil has a negative impact on renewable energy use through the real income channel. In order for Turkey to realize its investments in renewable energy resources more reliably and sustainably, the study suggests that policymakers should revise the current economic growth model by making it more resilient to external shocks such as the US interest rate, exchange rate, and oil prices.

Do financial development and industrialization intensify energy consumption in Turkey?

This study examines the inverted U-shape relationship between financial development and energy intensity for Turkish economy. To this end, ARDL model has been employed to estimate the short-run and long-run coefficients. The Bayer and Hanck (2013) combined cointegration technique and ARDL bounds testing were employed to examine the cointegration association among investigated variables using annual data from 1976 to 2016. The statistically significant and inverted U-shaped association was affirmed between financial development and energy intensity in Turkey. The results also show that financial development has positive and significant effect on energy intensity. The result of Hacker and Hatemi-J (2012) leveraged bootstrap causality test reveals the unidirectional relationship running from financial development to energy intensity in Turkey. However, the feedback causal effect was found between industrialization and energy intensity. Further insights into causal relationship and policy implications are provided in the Conclusion section.

Energy consumption forecast of Turkey using artificial neural networks from a sustainability perspective

ABSTRACT As industrialization, population and living standards increase, energy becomes increasingly crucial. Therefore, modeling and forecasting of energy use is critical for countries. The studies carried out for energy consumption estimation were examined and indicators used in the literature were classified according to the three main dimensions of sustainability, social, economic, and environmental factors. Turkey's energy consumption estimates were made by four sustainability-based models. Input variables are GDP, electricity sales prices, import, population and temperature, while output variable is gross energy consumption. The models were tested and compared with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The best-performing Social-Economic-Environmental model has lowest MSE value (0.0001114) and highest R² value (0.99912). This model was used to forecast Turkey's energy use between 2021 and 2025.

The Effects of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions on Turkey's Initiatives in Promoting Sustainable Environmental and Economic Development

Turkey has a major concern in managing greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption. Although they ratified the Paris Agreement on October 2021 to tackle climate change, the country would face economic loss due to fossil fuel production and increasing carbon emissions. Multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) analysis indicates that Turkey's energy consumption is affected by population growth, natural gas price, carbon emissions, and loans put into non-renewable energy projects. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions while continue to stabilize the economy, active regulations must be implemented to mitigate the effects of climate change and promote sustainable urban development with proposed strategies.

Forecasting of Turkey’s Electrical Energy Consumption using LSTM and GRU Networks

Energy demand management is particularly important for developing and emerging economies. Their energy consumptions increase significantly, depending on their growing economies. As a result of Turkey’s rapid economic and population growth, electricity consumption is increasing. Electricity consumption forecasting plays an essential role for energy suppliers, consumers, and policy makers. Therefore, using models to accurately and reliably forecast future electricity consumption trends is a key issue for the planning and operation of electric power systems. This paper focused on forecasting electrical energy consumption by utilizing deep learning methods, i.e., Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) models, for time series data. One-hour and three-hour ahead forecasting are accomplished by using a historical dataset of electrical energy consumption in Turkey. The comparison results show that the GRU model is slightly better than that of the LSTM. Our study also reveals that one-hour ahead predictions are more accurate than three-hour ahead predictions.

Comparative analysis of energy use efficiency among Pakistani and Turkish wheat growers

AbstractAgriculture is one of the high input energy using sectors which ultimately produces the output energy for the survival of human beings. Wheat is an important cereal in the agriculture production system. It is a major food crop and staple food for many countries in the world. Higher population growth has increased demand for wheat, and this demand has been met through the adoption of modern agricultural practices which are heavily dependent on energy. The current study was planned to examine the input energy use efficiency of rainfed wheat growers in Pakistan and Turkey (countries among the top 10 global wheat producers). A total of 119 wheat growers from the rainfed areas of both countries were randomly selected. The data envelopment analysis was executed to estimate the input energy use efficiency score of the growers. The results of the study revealed that almost a similar source of input energy is used in both countries in wheat cultivation. The largest input energy consumption in Turkey was nitrogen fertilizer (10,531.50 MJ ha−1), while in Pakistan was farmyard manure (12,837.32 MJ ha−1). The Turkish growers have higher energy use efficiency 2.42 as compared to Pakistani growers, whose energy use efficiency was 1.09. Results further revealed that there is a substantial potential for energy savings in both countries by optimizing energy use. The study concluded that the exchange of energy-efficient practices between both countries can significantly reduce energy use and improve the yield of wheat.

Türkiye’nin Enerji İhtiyacını Tahmin Etmek için Jaya Algoritmasına Dayalı Yeni Hibrit Bir Yaklaşım

The main objective of this study is to develop a highly predictive model to forecast Turkey’s energy consumption. The model has developed based on regression functions and Jaya algorithm which is a new and powerful optimization algorithm. Linear, exponential, hyperbolic and quadratic functions were used as regression functions. Gross domestic product, population, import and export data have been used as independent variables in the model. The accuracy of Jaya method was investigated using error criteria such as average relative error, root mean square error, and mean absolute error. As a result of the analysis, it was concluded that the quadratic function developed with Jaya algorithm performed better than the others. After the optimal configurations have been defined, a scenario has been developed to estimate Turkey's future energy consumption values. The obtained results are compared with the previous studies. According to the obtained results, primary energy consumption of Turkey can be modeled using the proposed model and Jaya can be used to predict Turkey's future energy need.

Usage of Waste Water Treatment Plants Hydroelectric Energy for Urban Lighting Energy: The Case of Turkey

In this study, primarily from wastewater treatment plants in seven geographical regions in Turkey value of electrical power that can be generated were calculated. Then, a study was carried out to determine the ratio of the electrical power generated to meet the lighting energy requirement in the relevant geographical region. For this purpose, a method for evaluating the hydroelectric potential of wastewater treatment plant was presented. For seven geographical regions, population prediction in 2018-2025, predicted flow rate of wastewater to be treated from wastewater treatment plant and lighting consumption for each region were predicted. Predictions for the future years were made by using the equations obtained through the curve fitting algorithm written in Matlab environment. Using these values, the predicted electrical power values were calculated in case the distance between the treated wastewater falls and the turbine where electricity generation took place was 3 meters. According to study total predicted wastewater would be 4.16 (2018) and 5.89 (2025) billion m3. Total cities’ predicted lighting energy consumption in Turkey would be 4429.2 GWh (2018) and 4941.5 GWh (2025). And yearly predicted electricity generation from wastewater treatment plant hydroelectric would be 28.51 GWh (2018) and 38.53 GWh (2025).