AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ON THE DETERMINANTS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN TURKEY

Abstract

Turkey has experienced rapid population growth, rapid urbanization and industrialization in recent years. Therefore, Turkey's demand for energy has been increasing over the years. Also the main issue is Turkey's foreign dependency on energy resources. Researching the determinants of energy consumption is important in terms of developing policies for more efficient use of energy. For this reason, the determinants of energy consumption in Turkey were analyzed using the ARDL Boundary Test and the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, based on data from 1980-2020. While fossil fuel energy consumption as the dependent variable in the model, GDP, export rate and the ratio of fixed capital investments to GDP are independent variables. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there is a longrun relationship between the variables. An increase in economic growth by 1 percent, increases energy consumption by 0.34%. An increase in exports by 1 percent increases energy consumption by 0.57% in the long run while an increase in fixed capital investments by 1 percent, increases energy consumption by 0.15%. As a result of the causality analysis, it was concluded that there is one-way causality from GDP growth to energy consumption. It has been determined that there is a one-way causality running from fixed capital investments and exports to energy consumption.