Empirical Critical Loads Research Articles

Foliar nitrogen uptake in broadleaf evergreen Mediterranean forests: Fertilisation experiment with labelled nitrogen

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition in Mediterranean sclerophyllous forests of Holm oak (Quercus rotundifolia, Q. ilex) in Spain often exceeds empirical critical loads established for ecosystem conservation. There are still uncertainties on the capacity of canopy retention and uptake of the atmospheric N deposited of these forests. Studying and analysing all the forest nitrogen-cycle processes is essential to understand the potential effect of N deposition in these ecosystems. This study conducted a year-long short-term fertilisation experiment with labelled ammonium (15N-NH4) and nitrate (15N-NO3) to estimate foliar N absorption rates and assess the influence of leaf phenology and meteorological seasonal variations. Fertilising solutions were prepared to simulate low and high wet N deposition concentration, based on data reported from previous studies. Additionally, ecophysiological and meteorological measurements were collected to explore potential relationships between absorption rates, plant activity, and weather conditions. The results showed that Holm oak leaves were able to absorb both oxidised and reduced N compounds, with higher rates of NH4+ absorption. N recovery of both NH4+ and NO3− was higher in the low concentration treatments, suggesting reduced effectiveness of absorption as concentration increases. Foliar absorption rates were leaf-age dependent, with the highest values observed in young developing leaves. Foliar uptake showed seasonal changes with a clear reduction during the summer, linked to drought and dry weather conditions, and showing also smaller leaf net assimilation and stomatal conductance. During the rest of the year, foliar N absorption was not clearly associated to plant physiological activity but with environmental conditions. Our findings suggest that Holm oak canopies could absorb an important part of the incoming N deposition, but this process is compound, season and leaf phenology dependent. Further research is therefore needed to better understand and model this part of the N cycle.

Investigating the causes of O3 pollution in the western rim of sichuan basin, southwestern China

The western rim of the Sichuan Basin (SCB), located between the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and the Chengdu-Chongqing city cluster, is a mountainous region renowned for its rich biodiversity. Previous atmospheric modeling studies have revealed high O3 exposures for ecosystems in this region. To better understand the levels and causes of O3 pollution at different elevations, we conducted a year-long observation of air pollutants and meteorological conditions at the top and the base of Mount Emei. Results showed that O3 concentrations were higher at the top (Jinding: 3077 m) than at the foot (Leshan: 460 m), likely due to different O3 sources at the sites. O3 at Leshan was mainly generated by O3 photochemical production within the SCB. In contrast, O3 at Jinding was mainly transported from other regions and exhibited higher concentrations in the evening than in the daytime. Five major O3 transport pathways were identified for Jinding, including three in the QTP and its adjacent regions, one in the SCB, and one in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. Furthermore, both sites can be affected by air pollutants from the spring biomass-burning in the southern and southeastern Asia. Although certain O3 exposure indices for ecosystem protection exceeded their empirical critical loads at both sites, others did not. In addition, our results revealed significant discrepancies between the observations and previous modeling results, which might be attributed to the complex topography and coarse horizontal resolution of the model. Further investigations are recommended to understand air pollution-ecosystem interactions in the western rim of the SCB.

Biodiversity-Based Empirical Critical Loads of Nitrogen Deposition in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) emissions can have considerable effects on terrestrial ecosystems, with chronic N deposition leading to changes in plant species composition. The Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) represents a large point source of N emissions, which has prompted concern for surrounding habitats. The objective of this study was to determine the relative importance of N deposition as a driver of plant species community composition against bioclimatic and soil chemical variables. Further, we sought to identify community thresholds in plant species composition across a N deposition gradient. This assessment was performed for 46 Jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.)-dominant forest sites surrounding the AOSR spanning Alberta and Saskatchewan. In total, 35 environmental variables were evaluated using redundancy analysis (RDA), followed by gradient forest analysis applied to plant species abundance data. Soil chemical variables accounted for just over 26% of the total explainable variation in the dataset, followed by bioclimatic variables (19%) and deposition variables (5%), but joint effects between variables also explained a significant portion of the total variation (p < 0.001). Total deposited nitrogen (TDN), and sulphur (TDS) along with bioclimatic and soil chemical variables, were identified as important variables in gradient forest analysis. A single, definitive threshold across TDN was identified at approximately 5.6 kg N ha−1 yr−1 (while a TDS threshold was found at 14.4 kg S ha−1 yr−1). The TDN threshold range was associated primarily with changepoints for several vascular species (Pyrola asarifolia, Pyrola chlorantha, Cornus canadensis, and Arctostaphylos uva-ursi) and bryophyte and lichen species (Pleurozium schreberi, Vulpicida pinastri, and Dicranum polysetum). These results suggest that across Jack pine-dominant forests surrounding the AOSR, the biodiversity-based empirical critical load of nutrient N is 5.6 kg N ha−1 yr−1.

Ecological Risks from Atmospheric Deposition of Nitrogen and Sulphur in Jack Pine forests of Northwestern Canada

Chronic elevated nitrogen (N) deposition can have adverse effects on terrestrial ecosystems. For large areas of northern Canada distant from emissions sources, long-range atmospheric transport of N may impact plant species diversity, even at low deposition levels. The objective of this study was to establish plant species community thresholds for N deposition under multiple environmental gradients using gradient forest analysis. Plant species abundance data for 297 Jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.)-dominant forest plots across Alberta and Saskatchewan, Canada, were evaluated against 43 bioclimatic and deposition variables. Bioclimatic variables were overwhelmingly the most important drivers of community thresholds. Nonetheless, dry N oxide (DNO) and dry N dioxide deposition inferred a total deposited N (TDN) community threshold of 1.4–2.1 kg N ha−1 yr−1. This range was predominantly associated with changes in several lichen species, including Cladina mitis, Vulpicida pinastri, Evernia mesomorpha and Lecanora circumborealis, some of which are known bioindicators of N deposition. A secondary DNO threshold appeared to be driving changes in several vascular species and was equivalent to 2.45–3.15 kg N ha−1 yr−1 on the TDN gradient. These results suggest that in low deposition ‘background’ regions a biodiversity-based empirical critical load of 1.4–3.15 kg N ha−1 yr−1 will protect lichen communities and other N-sensitive species in Jack pine forests across Northwestern Canada. Nitrogen deposition above the critical load may lead to adverse effects on plant species biodiversity within these forests.

Determination of Critical Loads for Eutrophying and Acidifying Air Pollutant Inputs for the Protection of Near-Natural Ecosystems in Germany

Under the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) of the UN Economic Commission for Europe, UNECE, to which Germany acceded in 1982, the harmful effects of air pollutants on the environment are to be steadily reduced and ultimately limited to a level that is compatible with nature. The ICP Modelling & Mapping (ICP M&M) under the Working Group on Effects (WGE) of CLRTAP maps critical loads for the entire Convention area and calculates the exceedance risks and associated risks to vegetation and biodiversity. A current data request was made in November 2015 with the aim of submitting new or updated ecosystem-specific critical loads for protection against acidification and eutrophication. For this task, critical loads were determined by the authors for one third of the territory of Germany using the simple mass balance (SMB) method according to the ICP Mapping Manual. The permissible eutrophying nitrogen input into the ecosystem CLnut(N), as well as the acidifying sulphur input CLmaxS, can be described as the setting of the equilibrium between substance inputs and outputs, provided that specific critical limits are met. The BERN database—created by the authors—serves as the basis for modelling vegetation-specific critical limits as a complement to the SMB model. The BERN database contains near-natural plant communities with clearly definable site constancy. The 25,600 German and a further 24,600 European vegetation records dating back to before 1960 were evaluated to determine the good ecological status of the plant communities. The results of the critical load calculation show that about half of the receptor areas have critical loads for eutrophying nitrogen below 10 kg ha−1 a−1 and critical loads for acidifying sulphur were below 1500 eq ha−1 a−1. It could be demonstrated that the BERN–SMB-modelled critical loads for eutrophying nitrogen inputs show lower values on average throughout Germany than those calculated using only the previous critical limits according to the ICP Mapping Manual. These values are closer to the empirical critical loads than the critical loads without BERN data. For the goal of the German National Biodiversity Strategy by 2007 and 2020 to define ecosystem-related impact thresholds for pollutants that describe the effects on biodiversity, the BERN/SMB critical loads for the protection of ecosystems provide a precautionary scientific basis.

Hierarchical change-point regression models including random effects to estimate empirical critical loads for nitrogen using Bayesian Regression Models (brms) and JAGS

The concept of critical loads is used in the framework of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (UNECE) to define thresholds below which no damaging effects on habitats occur based on the latest scientific knowledge. Change-point regression models applied in a Bayesian framework are useful statistical tools to estimate critical empirical loads. While hierarchical study designs are common in ecological research, previous methods to estimate critical loads using change-point regression did not allow to analyse data collected under such a design. This method update provides an implementation of hierarchical data structure by including random effects such as study sites or as in this example tree species within the Bayesian approach of change-point regression models using two different approaches. The example data set is an European wide gradient study of the impact of climate change and air pollution on forest tree health assessed by foliar nutrient status of nitrogen (N) to phosphorus (P) from 10 different conifer tree species originated from 88 forest sites and 9 countries covering 22 years (1995-2017). Both modelling approaches using JAGS and Bayesian Regression Models using ‘Stan’ (brms) resulted in reasonable and similar estimations of the critical empirical load for nitrogen (CLempN) for temperate forests. These methodological examples of using different approaches of Bayesian change-point regression models dealing with random effects could prove useful to infer CLempN for other ecosystems and long-term data sets.•Hierarchical change-point regression models are suitable for estimating critical empirical loads.•The Bayesian framework of these models provides the inclusion of the current critical load and various confounding or modifying variables.•Here we present two ways of implementing hierarchical data sets in Bayesian change-point regression models using JAGS and brms.

Estimations of Long-Term nss-SO42- and NO3- Wet Depositions over East Asia by Use of Ensemble Machine-Learning Method.

Wet deposition of non-sea-salt sulfate (nss-SO42-) and nitrate (NO3-), derived from anthropogenic emissions of SO2 and NOx, exerts adverse effects on ecosystems. In this work, an ensemble back-propagation neural network was proposed to estimate the long-term wet depositions of nss-SO42- (2005-2017) and NO3- (2001-2014) over East Asia in 10 km resolution. The R2 values for the 10-fold cross-validation of annual wet depositions of nss-SO42- and NO3- were 0.90 and 0.85, respectively. The hotspots of the wet deposition of these two acidic species span southwestern, central, and eastern China. The molar ratio of NO3- to nss-SO42- increased in 10 out of 12 analyzed East Asian countries from 2005 to 2014, which indicates that the acidity in rainwater shifts from the sulfur type to nitrogen type over most of the regions. The wet deposition on the four ecosystems (forest, grassland, cropland, and freshwater body) was also analyzed. Results showed that the nss-SO42- wet deposition on 25.5% of freshwater bodies in 2015 and NO3- wet deposition on 21.7% of grassland in 2014 exceeded the ecosystem empirical critical loads (25 kg/ha sulfate and 2 kg N/ha) in East Asia. Thus, more stringent and regionally collaborative sulfur and nitrogen emission-control measures are urgently needed to protect the ecosystem of East Asia.

Disparities between plant community responses to nitrogen deposition and critical loads in UK semi-natural habitats

Abstract Empirical critical loads are widely used to quantify and manage the ecological impacts of reactive nitrogen (N) deposition. Critical load values aim to identify a level of N deposition below which significant harmful effects do not occur according to present knowledge. Critical loads have been primarily based on experiments, but these are few in number and have well-known limitations, so there is a strong imperative to test and validate values with other forms of evidence. We assembled data on the spatial variability in vegetation communities in the United Kingdom and used Threshold Indicator Taxa Analyses (TITAN) to investigate linkages between species changes and modelled current and cumulative N deposition. Our analyses focused on five datasets: acid grasslands, alpine habitats, coastal fixed dunes, dune slacks and wet grasslands. In four of these habitats there was evidence for a significant decline in the cover of at least one species (a ‘species-loss change-point’) occurring below the critical load, and often at very low levels of N deposition. In all of the habitats there was evidence for clustering of many individual species-loss change-points, implying a community change-point analogous to an ecological threshold. Three of these community change-points occurred below the critical load and the remaining two overlapped with the critical load range. Studies using similar approaches are now increasingly common, with similar results. Across 19 similar analyses there has been evidence for plant species loss change-points below the critical load in 18 analyses, and community-level species loss change-points below the critical load in 13 analyses. None of these analyses has shown community change-points above the critical load. Field data increasingly suggest that many European critical loads are too high to confidently prevent loss of sensitive species.

Ozone pollution in the west China rain zone and its adjacent regions, Southwestern China: Concentrations, ecological risk, and Sources

Located in the transitional region between the Sichuan Basin (SCB) and Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), the West China Rain Zone (WCRZ) is a large-scale ecotone and partially belongs to the Southwest China Mountains, which is one of the world’s 34 biodiversity hotspots. Using observation data from national air quality stations and our own monitoring data, we investigated the risk from O3 to vegetation and the major source-region of O3 for two UNESCO (i.e., United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization) world heritage properties (Mt. Qingcheng and Mt. Emei) and one city (Ya’an) in the WCRZ. The results show that the annual mean maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) O3 concentration in Mt. Qingcheng (54 ppb) was higher than that in the adjacent SCB cities (38–48 ppb). The acute and chronic risk levels from O3 to vegetation were also higher in Mt. Qingcheng than at all the other sites. The mean MDA8 O3 concentrations and the O3 risk levels to vegetation in Mt. Emei and Ya’an fell in the range of that at the SCB and QTP cities. However, O3 exposures at all the WCRZ, SCB, and QTP sites exceeded the empirical critical loads for natural ecosystems, forest trees, and highly O3-sensitive plants. The SCB was identified as the largest source-region of O3 for Mt. Qingcheng and Mt. Emei but other Chinese regions and northern India also had considerable contributions. To protect biodiversity and ecosystem services, there is a need to further systematically study O3 and its ecological impacts for the entire WCRZ.

Benefit of China’s reduction in nitrogen oxides emission to natural ecosystems in East Asia with respect to critical load exceedance

The emission of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in China decreased by 15% from 2010 to 2015 (without a significant decrease in NH3 emission), resulting in the decline of nitrogen (N) deposition in East Asia. Empirical N critical load exceedance was used to assess the benefit of the NOx emission reduction in China to natural ecosystems in East Asia. Empirical N critical loads for major forest and grassland types in East Asia were assigned based on field manipulation experiments for N effects. The critical load map based on the minimum of the critical load range of each vegetation type showed that empirical critical loads were generally lower in the Tibetan Plateau and some parts of northeastern China (≤5 kgN·ha−1·a−1), and higher in northern and southern China (≥20 kgN·ha−1·a−1). Empirical critical loads were also low in some parts of central and northern Japan (≤5 kgN·ha−1·a−1) and the south Korean Peninsula (5–10 kgN·ha−1·a−1). As a benefit of NOx emission reduction in China, N deposition in East Asia decreased significantly from 2010 to 2015. The total area and total amount of critical load exceedance in East Asia declined 4.6% and 14.3% respectively, suggesting great benefits to natural ecosystems.

Tree species at risk from nitrogen deposition in the northeastern United States: A geospatial analysis of effects of multiple stressors using exceedance of critical loads

A recently developed online GIS tool, Nitrogen Critical Loads Assessment by Site (N-CLAS), was used to assess the effects of nitrogen (N) deposition and climate change on 23 tree species of management concern in the northeastern United States. The N-CLAS tool calculates and maps critical loads, target loads, and exceedances across the landscape by linking information on the relationships between N deposition, tree growth and environmental conditions with high resolution geospatial data for species composition and abiotic modifying factors (topography, climate, and soils). Outputs can be customized to capture specific species, locations or applications of interest to land managers.The summary analyses presented here show that most forests in the northeastern United States are at risk of detrimental effects from N deposition, although the extent and magnitude of the risk varies spatially. Eighty-six percent of the forested area in the region (98 M acres) is in exceedance of the critical load. The magnitude of this exceedance is highest (6–8 kg N ha−1 yr−1) in the southwestern part of the study region where N deposition is highest (e.g. North Central Hardwood Forests, Erie Drift Plain, Driftless Area, and Southern Michigan/Northern Indiana Drift Plains ecoregions). The magnitude of exceedance is lowest (1–2 kg N ha−1 yr−1) in the northeastern and northwestern part of the study area where N deposition is lowest (e.g. Acadian Plains and Hills and the Northern Minnesota Wetland ecoregions). White pine (Pinus strobus), quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides), yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis), northern red oak (Quercus rubra) and bigtooth aspen (Populus grandidentata) are in exceedance of the critical load across large portions of the study area–between 31 and 56 million acres are in exceedance for each species. Red pine (Pinus resinosa), pitch pine (Pinus rigida), and chestnut oak (Quercus montana), which occur over a small geographic extent, are in exceedance of the critical load over 89 to 100 percent of their range.N-CLAS provides land managers easy access to a tool with significant refinement in determining empirical critical loads at a spatial resolution applicable to forest management. This represents an important step towards improving our understanding of the potential risk to forests in the northeastern U.S and linking current state of the science to decision making processes on the ground.

Total deposition of nitrogen in Swiss forests: Comparison of assessment methods and evaluation of changes over two decades

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition in terrestrial ecosystems is difficult to quantify, especially in forests. In this study, we compared three approaches for determining the wet and dry deposition of nitrogen (total deposition) at 17 intensively monitored forest sites in Switzerland. Specifically, we considered approaches based on: 1) measurements of bulk deposition and throughfall in 2014 (throughfall method); 2) measurements of bulk deposition and measurements of air concentrations of ammonia (NH3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), to which deposition velocities were applied, also in 2014 (inferential method); and 3) a model developed for Switzerland at a high spatial resolution, run for the five-year period 2013–2017 (emission based model). In addition, changes over two decades were assessed using continuous measurements of throughfall and bulk deposition. Further, air concentrations of NH3 and NO2 measured in 2014 were compared with concentrations measured in 2000 at 10 of the sites. The three approaches generally yielded comparable estimates of total deposition, with some notable differences at some sites. For both the model and the inferential method, uncertainties were related to the deposition velocities that were applied to air concentrations of N compounds, especially for NH3. The throughfall method provided a minimum estimate of the total N deposition in the forest, but the fraction of the deposited N that is directly taken up by the canopy remained difficult to quantify. Nitrogen deposition has decreased since the mid-1990s at the majority of the sites. However, deposition of the reduced forms of N seems to have stagnated at the local level. Furthermore, N deposition is still too high in comparison with the range of empirical critical loads of N (CLN). The minimum deposition estimated from throughfall exceeds the lower limit of CLN at all sites except those in the Central Alps. Deposition estimated with the model and the inferential method exceeds the lower limit of CLN at all sites and even exceeds the upper limit at several locations.

A new method for jointly assessing effects of climate change and nitrogen deposition on habitats

Climate change and nitrogen (N) deposition are among the most important drivers of biodiversity change at a global scale. Although commonly considered separately in applied research, conservation, and policy development, both empirical evidence and modelling studies indicate that these two stressors may act synergistically and trigger a more pronounced biodiversity loss than each of them alone. Interactive effects thus need to be considered in biodiversity conservation. In this study, we propose a new method for jointly assessing risk from both stressors to habitats by combining climate envelope modelling and the evaluation of exceedance of empirical critical loads for eutrophication through N deposition. Based on this approach we can calculate a combined risk metric, which is the scaled exceedance of the N critical load and climatic thresholds in the three-dimensional space of N deposition, temperature, and water limitation. We use a habitat map to project this risk metric for 34 EUNIS habitat types across Austria. Resulting risk maps indicated that about 16 % of the area of these natural and semi-natural habitat types is currently at risk from either N exceedance, drought or warming. Using combinations of future climatic (RCP2.5 and RCP8.5) and N deposition (business as usual, current legislation and maximum feasible reduction) scenarios, we predict that the area at risk might increase to up to 19% until 2050, with risk from N-deposition decreasing and risk from climate change increasing. Combined impacts of both stressors affect only up to 2% of the entire evaluated area, but are much more frequent in particular habitat types such as oligotrophic bogs and subalpine to alpine grasslands. We conclude that this method provides a useful screening procedure to identify and compare areas and habitats under combined risk from both stressors and to thus support prioritization and decision making in biodiversity conservation.

Increased microbial uptake and plant nitrogen availability in response to simulated nitrogen deposition in alpine meadows

As global industry and intensive agriculture increase in response to an expanding human population, oligotrophic ecosystems such as alpine and subalpine habitats are increasingly vulnerable to transported atmospheric nitrogen (N) pollution. Even at low levels, N deposition can alter soil chemistry via changes in decomposition rates and mineralization of N from soil organic matter. We used fertilization to mimic N deposition in three National Park alpine meadow ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) of the United States (an area of low ambient N deposition) over a 3-year period. Our sites were two moist heath meadow ecosystems in the western Cascade Mountains and one dry meadow ecosystem in the eastern Olympic Mountains. We assessed alpine soil chemistry and N cycling responses to simulated N deposition, using soil inorganic N availability to plants as a critical loads indicator. Soil solution inorganic N supply as measured by resin probes increased in response to N treatment at all sites by Year 3 in plots fertilized at the 10 kg N ha−1 yr−1 treatment level. At the heath meadow sites, we observed increased soil NO3-N during the summer and decreased extractable organic carbon (C) during the fall in response to applied N. We also observed seasonal increases in the proportion of soil N contained in microbial biomass in response to treatment. These data indicate season-specific increases in microbial N uptake and mineralization in response to fertilizer treatment. The carbon-rich, fine-ash volcanic soils of the North Cascades were the most sensitive to N treatment with low microbial N uptake. From those soils, we derived an empirical critical load of 6 kg N per ha−1 yr−1 for increased soil N availability. However, alpine meadow soils in the Western Cascades undergo N limitation in the fall and may have less potential for N leaching with fall rains. In contrast, soils at the dry meadow site had much greater potential for N mineralization, and are temperature- and moisture-limited rather than N limited. Changes in soil chemistry in response to N deposition were site-specific and resulted from differences in plant uptake and soil N mineralization capacity, indicating two very different regimes for response to N deposition for N-limited alpine meadows vs moisture-limited alpine meadows.

Joining empirical and modelling approaches to estimate dry deposition of nitrogen in Mediterranean forests

In Mediterranean areas, dry deposition is a major component of the total atmospheric N input to natural habitats, particularly to forest ecosystems. An innovative approach, combining the empirical inferential method (EIM) for surface deposition of NO3− and NH4+ with stomatal uptake of NH3, HNO3 and NO2 derived from the DO3SE (Deposition of Ozone and Stomatal Exchange) model, was used to estimate total dry deposition of inorganic N air pollutants in four holm oak forests under Mediterranean conditions in Spain. The estimated total deposition varied among the sites and matched the geographical patterns previously found in model estimates: higher deposition was determined at the northern site (28.9 kg N ha−1 year−1) and at the northeastern sites (17.8 and 12.5 kg N ha−1 year−1) than at the central-Spain site (9.4 kg N ha−1 year−1). On average, the estimated dry deposition of atmospheric N represented 77% ± 2% of the total deposition of N, of which surface deposition of gaseous and particulate atmospheric N averaged 10.0 ± 2.9 kg N ha−1 year−1 for the four sites (58% of the total deposition), and stomatal deposition of N gases averaged 3.3 ± 0.8 kg N ha−1 year−1 (19% of the total deposition). Deposition of atmospheric inorganic N was dominated by the surface deposition of oxidized N in all the forests (means of 54% and 42% of the dry and total deposition, respectively). The relative contribution of NO2 to dry deposition averaged from 19% in the peri-urban forests to 11% in the most natural site. During the monitoring period, the empirical critical loads provisionally proposed for ecosystem protection (10–20 kg N ha−1 year−1) was exceeded in three of the four studied forests.

Modeled deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in Europe estimated by 14 air quality model systems: evaluation, effects of changes in emissions and implications for habitat protection

The evaluation and intercomparison of air quality models is key to reducing model errors and uncertainty. The projects AQMEII3 and EURODELTA-Trends, in the framework of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants and the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, respectively (both task forces under the UNECE Convention on the Long Range Transport of Air Pollution, LTRAP), have brought together various regional air quality models to analyze their performance in terms of air concentrations and wet deposition, as well as to address other specific objectives.This paper jointly examines the results from both project communities by intercomparing and evaluating the deposition estimates of reduced and oxidized nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) in Europe simulated by 14 air quality model systems for the year 2010. An accurate estimate of deposition is key to an accurate simulation of atmospheric concentrations. In addition, deposition fluxes are increasingly being used to estimate ecological impacts. It is therefore important to know by how much model results differ and how well they agree with observed values, at least when comparison with observations is possible, such as in the case of wet deposition.This study reveals a large variability between the wet deposition estimates of the models, with some performing acceptably (according to previously defined criteria) and others underestimating wet deposition rates. For dry deposition, there are also considerable differences between the model estimates. An ensemble of the models with the best performance for N wet deposition was made and used to explore the implications of N deposition in the conservation of protected European habitats. Exceedances of empirical critical loads were calculated for the most common habitats at a resolution of 100 × 100 m2 within the Natura 2000 network, and the habitats with the largest areas showing exceedances are determined.Moreover, simulations with reduced emissions in selected source areas indicated a fairly linear relationship between reductions in emissions and changes in the deposition rates of N and S. An approximate 20 % reduction in N and S deposition in Europe is found when emissions at a global scale are reduced by the same amount. European emissions are by far the main contributor to deposition in Europe, whereas the reduction in deposition due to a decrease in emissions in North America is very small and confined to the western part of the domain. Reductions in European emissions led to substantial decreases in the protected habitat areas with critical load exceedances (halving the exceeded area for certain habitats), whereas no change was found, on average, when reducing North American emissions in terms of average values per habitat.

Dry deposition and canopy uptake in Mediterranean holm-oak forests estimated with a canopy budget model: A focus on N estimations

Bulk/wet and throughfall fluxes of major compounds were measured from June 2011 to June 2013 at four Mediterranean holm-oak (Quercus ilex) forests in the Iberian Peninsula. Regression analysis between net throughfall fluxes and precipitation indicated that the best defined canopy process was leaching for K+ and uptake for NH4+ at all sites. A more variable response between sites was found for Na+, Ca2+, SO42- and Cl−, which suggests that the interplay of dry deposition, leaching and uptake at the canopy was different depending on site climate and air quality characteristics.A canopy budget model (CBM) was used to try to discriminate between the canopy processes and enable to estimate dry deposition and uptake fluxes at three of the sites that complied with the model specifications. To derive N uptake, an efficiency factor of NH4+vs. NO3− uptake (xNH4) corresponding to moles of NH4+ taken up for each NO3− mol, has to be determined. Up to now, a value of 6 has been proposed for temperate forests, but we lack information for Mediterranean forests. Experimental determination of N absorption on Quercus ilex seedlings in Spain suggests efficiency factors from 1 to 6. Based on these values, a sensitivity analysis for xNH4 was performed and the NH4N and NO3N modeled dry deposition was compared with dry deposition estimated with independent methods (inferential modeling and washing of branches). At two sites in NE Spain under a milder Mediterranean climate, the best match was obtained for xNH4 = 6, corroborating results from European temperate forests. Based on this value, total DIN deposition was 12–13 kg N ha−1 y−1 at these sites. However, for a site in central Spain under drier conditions, variation of the NH4+ efficiency factor had little effect on DD estimates (which ranged from 2 to 2.6 kg N ha−1 y−1 with varying xNH4); when added to wet deposition, this produced a total N deposition in the range 2.6–3.4 kg N ha−1 y−1. Dry deposition was the predominant pathway for N, accounting for 60–80% of total deposition, while for base cations wet deposition dominated (55–65%). Nitrogen deposition values at the northwestern sites were close to the empirical critical load proposed for evergreen sclerophyllous Mediterranean forests (15–17 kg N ha−1 y−1). When organic N deposition at these forests is added (3 kg N ha−1 y−1), the total N input to the sites in NE Spain are close to the critical loads for Mediterranean evergreen oak forests.

Using change-point models to estimate empirical critical loads for nitrogen in mountain ecosystems

To protect ecosystems and their services, the critical load concept has been implemented under the framework of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (UNECE) to develop effects-oriented air pollution abatement strategies. Critical loads are thresholds below which damaging effects on sensitive habitats do not occur according to current knowledge. Here we use change-point models applied in a Bayesian context to overcome some of the difficulties when estimating empirical critical loads for nitrogen (N) from empirical data. We tested the method using simulated data with varying sample sizes, varying effects of confounding variables, and with varying negative effects of N deposition on species richness. The method was applied to the national-scale plant species richness data from mountain hay meadows and (sub)alpine scrubs sites in Switzerland. Seven confounding factors (elevation, inclination, precipitation, calcareous content, aspect as well as indicator values for humidity and light) were selected based on earlier studies examining numerous environmental factors to explain Swiss vascular plant diversity. The estimated critical load confirmed the existing empirical critical load of 5–15 kg N ha−1 yr−1 for (sub)alpine scrubs, while for mountain hay meadows the estimated critical load was at the lower end of the current empirical critical load range. Based on these results, we suggest to narrow down the critical load range for mountain hay meadows to 10–15 kg N ha−1 yr−1.

Critical levels and loads and the regulation of industrial emissions in northwest British Columbia, Canada

Northwest British Columbia, Canada, a sparsely populated and largely pristine region, is targeted for rapid industrial growth owing to the modernization of an aluminum smelter and multiple proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities. Consequently, air quality in this region is expected to undergo considerable changes within the next decade. In concert, the increase in LNG capacity driven by gas production from shale resources across North America has prompted environmental concerns and highlighted the need for science-based management decisions regarding the permitting of air emissions. In this study, an effects-based approach widely-used to support transboundary emissions policy negotiations was used to assess industrial air emissions in the Kitimat and Prince Rupert airsheds under permitted and future potential industrial emissions. Critical levels for vegetation of SO2 and NO2 and critical loads of acidity and nutrient nitrogen for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems were estimated for both regions and compared with modelled concentration and deposition estimates to identify the potential extent and magnitude of ecosystem impacts. The critical level for SO2 was predicted to be exceeded in an area ranging from 81 to 251 km2 in the Kitimat airshed owing to emissions from an existing smelter, compared with <1 km2 in Prince Rupert under the lowest to highest emissions scenarios. In contrast, the NO2 critical level was not exceeded in Kitimat, and ranged from 4.5 to 6 km2 in Prince Rupert owing to proposed LNG related emissions. Predicted areal exceedance of the critical load of acidity for soil ranged from 1 to 28 km2 in Kitimat and 4–10 km2 in Prince Rupert, while the areal exceedance of empirical critical load for nutrient N was predicted to be greater in the Prince Rupert airshed (20–94 km2) than in the Kitimat airshed (1–31 km2). The number of lakes that exceeded the critical load of acidity did not vary greatly across emissions scenarios in the Kitimat (21–23 out of 80 sampled lakes) and Prince Rupert (0 out of 35 sampled lakes) airsheds. While critical loads have been widely used to underpin international emissions reductions of transboundary pollutants, it is clear that they can also play an important role in managing regional air emissions. In the current study, exceedance of critical levels and loads suggests that industrial emissions from the nascent LNG export sector may require careful regulation to avoid environmental impacts. Emissions management from LNG export facilities in other regions should consider critical levels and loads analyses to ensure industrial development is synergistic with ecosystem protection. While recognizing uncertainties in dispersion modelling, critical load estimates, and subsequent effects, the critical levels and loads approach is being used to inform regulatory decisions in British Columbia to prevent impacts that have been well documented in other regions.

Vegetation community change points suggest that critical loads of nutrient nitrogen may be too high

It is widely accepted that elevated nitrogen deposition can have detrimental effects on semi-natural ecosystems, including changes to plant diversity. Empirical critical loads of nutrient nitrogen have been recommended to protect many sensitive European habitats from significant harmful effects. In this study, we used Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis (TITAN) to investigate shifts in vegetation communities along an atmospheric nitrogen deposition gradient for twenty-two semi-natural habitat types (as described under Annex I of the European Union Habitats Directive) in Ireland. Significant changes in vegetation community, i.e., change points, were determined for twelve habitats, with seven habitats showing a decrease in the number of positive indicator species. Community-level change points indicated a decrease in species abundance along a nitrogen deposition gradient ranging from 3.9 to 15.3 kg N ha−1 yr−1, which were significantly lower than recommended critical loads (Wilcoxon signed-rank test; V = 6, p < 0.05). These results suggest that lower critical loads of empirical nutrient nitrogen deposition may be required to protect many European habitats. Changes to vegetation communities may mean a loss of sensitive indicator species and potentially rare species in these habitats, highlighting how emission reductions policies set under the National Emissions Ceilings Directive may be directly linked to meeting the goal set out under the European Union’s Biodiversity Strategy of “halting the loss of biodiversity” across Europe by 2020.