Emission Pathways Research Articles

Understanding Climate Change by Modeling the Earth's Atmosphere as a Well‐Stirred Tank

AbstractComing to terms with climate change by understanding climate processes and their policy implications is essential not only for climate scientists and policymakers, but also for the general public, for industrial practitioners, and for engineers, including process system engineers. We have developed a simplified linear climate model (SLCM) to enable non‐specialists to explore the essential physical and chemical processes caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Trading‐off simplicity and accuracy, achieved by calibrating model parameters using established simple climate models, the SLCM allows (i) determining the climate impact of given past and future emissions, (ii) determining the amounts of CO2 removal needed to compensate for any unavoidable emissions of CH4 and N2O from agriculture, and (iii) back‐calculating emission pathways to meet specified global warming targets.

Advancements and Challenges in Nanoscale Zero-Valent Iron-Activated Persulfate Technology for the Removal of Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals

Endocrine-disrupting chemicals are a new class of pollutants that can affect hormonal metabolic processes in animals and humans. They can enter the aquatic environment through various pathways and gradually become enriched, thus posing a serious threat to the endocrine and physiological systems of both animals and humans. Nano zero-valent iron has promising applications in endocrine disruptor removal due to its excellent reducing properties and high specific surface area. However, given the dispersed focus and fragmented results of current studies, a comprehensive review is still lacking. In this paper, it was analyzed that the types of endocrine disruptors and their emission pathways reveal the sources of these compounds. Then, the main technologies currently used for endocrine disruptor treatment are introduced, covering physical, chemical, and biological treatment methods, with a special focus on persulfate oxidation among advanced oxidation technologies. Also, the paper summarizes the various activation methods of persulfate oxidation technology and proposes the nZVI-activated persulfate technology as the most promising means of treatment. In addition, this paper reviews the research progress of different modification methods of nZVI in activating persulfate for the removal of EDCs. Finally, the discussion includes recycling studies of nZVI/PS technology and emphasizes the urgency and importance of endocrine disruptor treatment. The review of this paper provides further scientific basis and technical support for nZVI/PS technology in the field of endocrine disruptor management.

Estimating countries’ additional carbon accountability for closing the mitigation gap based on past and future emissions

Quantifying fair national shares of the remaining global carbon budget has proven challenging. Here, we propose an indicator—additional carbon accountability—that quantifies countries’ responsibility for mitigation and CO2 removal in addition to achieving their own targets. Considering carbon debts since 1990 and future claims based on countries’ emission pathways, the indicator uses an equal cumulative per capita emissions approach to allocate accountability for closing the mitigation gap among countries with a positive total excessive carbon claim. The carbon budget is exceeded by 576 Gigatonnes of fossil CO2 when limiting warming below 1.5 °C (50% probability). Additional carbon accountability is highest for the United States and China, and highest per capita for the United Arab Emirates and Russia. Assumptions on carbon debts strongly impact the results for most countries. The ability to pay for this accountability is challenging for Iran, Kazakhstan and several BRICS+ members, in contrast to the G7 members.

Comparative analysis of CO2 emission linkages of construction between China and the United States using structural path analysis

Structural Path Analysis (SPA) and the Hypothetical Extraction Method (HEM) are both established methods for studying CO2 emissions. However, their combined application to investigate emission linkages in specific sectors, such as construction, is relatively novel. This research integrates SPA and HEM to explore the CO2 emissions linkages within the construction sectors of China and the United States, providing a comprehensive understanding of how these emissions are interlinked. The findings show that construction sector of Untied States and China is the largest production-based CO2 emissions of construction sector in the world, but the consumption-based emissions of construction sector in China contributes 29.81% of total CO2 emissions, compared to 5.63% in the U.S. This suggests that the carbon footprint of the construction sector is a significant consideration, irrespective of whether it is assessed from the standpoint of production or consumption dynamics. Meanwhile, the development of construction sector has driven the electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply sectors to emit a large amount of CO2 emission in both countries. By analyzing the differences in the main emission linkages and pathways of the construction sectors between China and the U.S., this study provides insights for reducing CO2 emissions in the construction sector and assists policymakers in developing future strategies.

Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5

Abstract. Under the Paris Agreement, signatory nations aim to keep global warming well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and preferably below 1.5 °C. This implicitly requires achieving net-zero or net-negative greenhouse gas emissions to ensure long-term global temperature stabilisation or reduction. Despite this requirement, there have been few analyses of stabilised climates, and there is a lack of model experiments to address our need for understanding the implications of the Paris Agreement. Here, we describe a new set of experiments using the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Earth system model (ACCESS-ESM-1.5) that enables the analysis of climate evolution under net-zero emissions, and we present initial results. Seven 1000-year-long simulations were run with global temperatures stabilising at levels in line with the Paris Agreement and at a range of higher global warming levels (GWLs). We provide an overview of the experimental design and use these simulations to demonstrate the consequences of delayed attainment of global net-zero carbon dioxide emissions. We show that there are substantial differences between transient and stabilising climate states and differences in stabilisation between GWLs. As the climate stabilises under net-zero emissions, we identify significant and robust changes in temperature and precipitation patterns including continued Southern Ocean warming and changes in regional precipitation trends. Changes under net-zero emissions differ greatly between regions, including contrasting trajectories of sea ice extent between the Arctic and Antarctic. We also examine the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and find evidence of reduced amplitude and frequency of ENSO events under climate stabilisation relative to projections under transient warming. An analysis at specific GWLs shows that significant regional changes continue for centuries after emission cessation and that these changes are stronger at higher GWLs. Our findings suggest substantial long-term climate changes are possible even under net-zero emission pathways. These simulations are available for use in the community and will hopefully motivate further experiments and analyses based on other Earth system models.

Toward Efficient Modeling of Nonradiative Decay in Extended INVEST: Overcoming Computational Challenges in Quantum Dynamics Simulations.

In recent years, an increasing number of fully organic molecules capable of thermally activated delayed fluorescence (TADF) have been reported, often with very small or even inverted singlet-triplet (INVEST) energy gaps. These molecules typically exhibit complex photophysics due to the close energy levels of multiple singlet and triplet states, which create various transition pathways toward emission. A predictive model for the rates of these transitions is thus essential for assessing the suitability of new materials for light-emitting devices. Quantum Dynamics (QD) calculations are ideal for this purpose, as they include quantum effects, without the limitations of first-order perturbative approaches, also allowing taking into account more than two electronic states at once. However, the huge computational demands of QD methodologies, especially for large molecules, currently limit their use as a standard tool. To address this problem, we here employ a strategy that allows us to include almost the whole set of the vibrational coordinates by selecting the key elements of the Hilbert space that significantly impact dynamics, thereby hugely reducing the computational burden. Application of this protocol to two relatively large INVEST molecules reveals that internal conversion in these systems is very fast, making indirect emissive pathways a possible channel for the population of the S1 state. More importantly, this study demonstrates that the dynamics can be accurately described even with a significantly reduced vibrational space, thus allowing quantum dynamics calculations that yield accurate transition rates in a few minutes of computational time.

Promoting Sustainability: Collaborative Governance Pathways for Virtual Water Interactions and Environmental Emissions

This study explores the water consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Yarkand River Basin, focusing on their dynamic interactions across industrial sectors. Utilizing environmental input–output analysis (IOA), the CROPWAT model, and life cycle assessment (LCA), we quantified the historical evolution of physical and virtual water cycles in relation to the water–carbon nexus. Our findings reveal that the planting industry, particularly the production of export-oriented, water-intensive crops like cotton, significantly contributes to both blue and green water consumption, exacerbating regional water scarcity. The persistent external market demand drives this over-extraction, further strained by the basin’s limited water retention capabilities. Although advancements have been made in reducing the per-unit water footprint of crops, total water consumption continues to rise due to agricultural expansion, intensifying pressure on blue water resources. Additionally, agricultural GHG emissions have surged, driven by increased electricity consumption, heavy fertilizer use, and escalating soil N2O emissions. In light of these challenges, our research underscores the critical need for integrated resource management strategies that align with sustainable development goals. By promoting efficient water allocation within the agricultural sector and diversifying crop structures downstream, we can enhance ecosystem resilience and reduce environmental degradation. Furthermore, the advancement of value-added agricultural processing and the implementation of innovative water conservation technologies are essential for fostering economic sustainability. These strategies not only mitigate the environmental impacts associated with agricultural practices but also strengthen the region’s adaptive capacity in the face of climate change and fluctuating market demands. Our findings contribute to the broader discourse on sustainable agricultural practices, emphasizing the interconnectedness of water management, climate resilience, and economic viability in arid regions.

A Global Analysis of Historical and Future Changes in Mediterranean Climate‐Type Regions

ABSTRACTMediterranean climate‐type regions (MCRs) are characterised by warm‐to‐hot dry summers and mild‐wet winters. These regions are typically found on the western or southern edges of continents, for example, in the Mediterranean Basin, the west coast of North and South America, southern Africa and southwest Australia. The MCRs are vulnerable to climate variability and change related to their unique characteristics, such as pronounced rainfall seasonality and prolonged hot and dry summers. Based on historical observations and CMIP6 climate projections, we apply an empirical bio‐climatic assessment of how the geographic distribution of MCRs has changed during the last century and how these zones will be further impacted under continued warming. Results indicate a poleward and eastward expansion of MCRs in the Mediterranean Basin, North America‐California and South America‐Central Chile regions. For parts of Southern Africa and Southern Australia, a retreat of the MCR margins and an expansion of more arid climate zones are projected. These shifts are particularly profound according to high emission and radiative forcing pathways and future scenarios. The warming in MCRs is projected to accelerate (e.g., mean regional warming of up to 5.5°C under a 4°C global warming scenario), and precipitation will decrease by about 5%–10% for every additional degree of global warming. One exception is the California MCR, where rainfall will likely increase. Such changes can challenge water resources, food security and other aspects of human livelihood and ecosystems in these unique geographical zones.

Stranded Asset Impairment Estimates of Thermal Power Companies Under Low-Carbon Transition Scenarios

The aspiration to reach the net zero carbon target has initiated new ideas for the sustainable development of the world economy. However, it has also accelerated the formation of stranded assets in high-carbon-emitting companies. Taking a Chinese thermal power company as an example, this paper proposes a model to estimate the degree of impairment loss for thermal power companies by integrating the net present value model with forward-looking carbon emission pathways under different policy intervention scenarios. The results show that under the low-carbon transition scenario with different policy interventions, the percentage of impairment loss of thermal power companies reaches up to 64.09%. Furthermore, impairment losses formed by stranded assets in the thermal power sector impose a severe shock on the national economy, as most of the impairment losses will ultimately be borne by the state treasury. Compared with conventional thermal power generation, new-energy power generation has a weak performance in delaying company bankruptcy caused by stranded assets. Therefore, in the process of a low-carbon transition, governmental departments should focus on the impairment loss of thermal power companies caused by stranded assets and should further integrate “green support” and “brown punishment” policies to effectively promote the low-carbon transition of thermal power companies.

Projected changes in heatwaves over Central and South America using high-resolution regional climate simulations

Heatwaves (HWs) pose a severe threat to human and ecological systems. Here we assess the projected changes in heatwaves over Latin America using bias corrected high-resolution regional climate simulations under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs). Heatwaves are projected to be more frequent, long-lasting, and intense in the mid-century under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with severe increases under the RCP8.5 scenario. Even under the low emissions scenario of RCP2.6, the frequency of heatwaves doubles over most of the region. A three- to tenfold rise in population exposure to heatwave days is projected over Central and South America, with climate change playing a dominant role in driving these changes. Results show that following the low emission pathway would reduce 57% and 50% of heatwave exposure for Central and South American regions respectively, highlighting the need to control anthropogenic emissions and implement sustainable practices.

Stem CH4 emissions from the reclaimed forests: magnitude, drivers, and contribution

BackgroundTrees in natural forests are a major contributor to atmospheric methane (CH4), yet these emissions have never been investigated in reclaimed forests. Our study aimed to assess the magnitude, seasonality, drivers, and contributions of tree CH4 emissions to ecosystem CH4 flux in the reclaimed forests. We measured CH4 emissions from different emission pathways, including the stems of trees (Populus euramericana, Metasequoia glyptostroboides, and Camphora officinarum), shoots of herbs (Carex breviculmis and Carex dispalata), and soils in the two reclaimed forests with reclamation periods of 12 and 5 years. We identified factors controlling seasonal tree CH4 emissions and measured tree morphological variables (diameter at breast height, wood density, and lenticel density) to determine species differences in emissions.ResultsCH4 emissions from trees in the 12-year-old reclaimed forest were significantly higher than those in the 5-year-old forest. Seasonal variations in tree CH4 emissions were primarily driven by growth stage and soil parameters, including soil CH4 flux, temperature, and moisture.ConclusionIn the reclaimed forests, tree-mediated CH4 emissions could be an important contributor to ecosystem CH4 flux, with contributions varying by season. As these forests mature and become ecologically restored, they may significantly impact regional and global CH4 emissions.

Rhenium Isotopes Record Oxidative Weathering Intensity in Sedimentary Rocks

AbstractOxidative weathering of organic carbon in sedimentary rocks is a major source of CO2 to the atmosphere over geological timescales, but the size of this emission pathway in Earth's past has not been directly quantified due to a lack of available proxy approaches. We have measured the rhenium isotope composition of organic‐rich rocks sampled from unweathered drill cores and weathered outcrops in south Texas, whose stratigraphic successions can be tightly correlated. Oxidative weathering of more than 90% of the organic carbon and ∼85% of the rhenium is accompanied by a shift to lower rhenium isotope compositions in the weathered outcrops. The calculated isotope composition of rhenium weathered from the initial bedrock for individual samples varies systematically by ∼0.7‰ with different fractions of rhenium loss. This variation can be empirically modeled with isotope fractionation factors of α = 1.0002–1.0008. Our results indicate that the isotope composition of rhenium delivered to the oceans can be altered by weathering intensity of rock organic matter and that the rhenium isotope composition of seawater is sensitive to past oxidative weathering and associated CO2 emissions.

Representative CO2 emissions pathways for China's provinces toward carbon neutrality under the Paris Agreement's 2 °C target

China has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. It is essential to develop representative CO2 emissions pathways at the provincial level that align with the national target to facilitate effective policy implementation and scientific research. To address inconsistencies between provincial aggregate emissions and national estimates, this study compares the 2021 CO2 emissions estimates of China's provinces from the bottom‒up emissions factor method and the top‒down atmospheric CO2 concentration inversion method. We find that these methods yield comparable results for the emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes at the provincial level. Based on a review of existing research on CO2 pathways for China's provinces, we propose a set of representative pathways for China's provinces. These pathways align with past practices of allocating national emissions intensity reduction targets to provinces and are consistent with the national Tsinghua‒CMA pathway. The proposed pathways require provinces to sequentially peak their emissions by 2030, followed by rapid emissions reduction. Compared to a reference scenario without the carbon neutrality target, these pathways would incur an estimated cumulative GDP loss of about 1% between 2020 and 2060. However, there are notable regional variations, with some regions in the northwest potentially experiencing higher economic growth due to the availability of high-quality low-carbon resources. We recommend that China enhance provincial-level CO2 emissions accounting by cross-validating bottom‒up and top‒down methods. Additionally, careful consideration should be given to aligning provincial targets with national and global commitments when updating pathways toward carbon neutrality.

Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement in Deep Water Formation Regions Under Low and High Emission Pathways

AbstractOcean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) is an ocean‐based Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) method to mitigate climate change. Studies to characterize regional differences in OAE efficiencies and biogeochemical effects are still sparse. As subduction regions play a pivotal role for anthropogenic carbon uptake and centennial storage, we here evaluate OAE efficiencies in the subduction regions of the Southern Ocean, the Northwest Atlantic, and the Norwegian‐Barents Sea region. Using the ocean biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1‐REcoM3, we simulate continuous OAE globally and in the subduction regions under high (SSP3‐7.0) and low (SSP1‐2.6) emission scenarios. The OAE efficiency calculated by two different metrics is higher (by 8%–30%) for SSP3‐7.0 than for SSP1‐2.6 due to a lower buffer factor in a high‐ world. All subduction regions show a CDR potential (0.23–0.31; PgC uptake per Pg alkaline material) consistent with global OAE for both emission scenarios. Calculating the efficiency as the ratio of excess dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) to excess alkalinity shows that the Southern Ocean and the Northwest Atlantic are as efficient as the global ocean (0.79–0.85), while the Norwegian‐Barents Sea region has a lower efficiency (0.65–0.75). The subduction regions store a fraction of excess carbon below 1 km that is 1.9 times higher than the global ocean. The excess surface alkalinity and thus uptake and storage follow the mixed‐layer depth seasonality, with the majority of the excess flux occurring in summer at shallow mixed layer depths. This study therefore highlights that subduction regions can be efficient for OAE if optimal deployment strategies are developed.

Nonstationarity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation's Fingerprint on Sea Surface Temperature

AbstractSea surface temperature (SST) has been increasing since industrialization with rising greenhouse gases. However, a warming hole exists in the North Atlantic where SST has cooled by 0.4 K/century during 1900–2017. It has been argued that this cooling is due to a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and subpolar North Atlantic SST has thus been utilized to estimate AMOC variability. We assess the robustness of subpolar North Atlantic SST as a proxy for AMOC strength under historical forcing, abrupt quadrupling of CO2, and a medium future emissions pathway, finding that AMOC's fingerprint on SST depends upon forcing scenarios. AMOC is important in warming hole development during significant warming periods, although SST may introduce uncertainties for AMOC reconstruction in stabilized regimes due to diverse forcing mechanisms and decadal variability. Our results caution against using SST alone as a proxy for AMOC variability—both on paleoclimatic and contemporary time scales.

Forecasting national CO2 emissions worldwide

Urgent climate action, especially carbon emissions reduction, is required to achieve sustainable goals. Therefore, understanding the drivers of and predicting \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\hbox {CO}_2$$\\end{document} emissions is a compelling matter. We present two global modeling frameworks—a multivariate regression and a Random Forest Regressor (RFR)—to hindcast (until 2021) and forecast (up to 2035) \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\hbox {CO}_2$$\\end{document} emissions across 117 countries as driven by 12 socioeconomic indicators regarding carbon emissions, economic well-being, green and complexity economics, energy use and consumption. Our results identify key driving features to explain emissions pathways, where beyond-GDP indicators rooted in the Economic Complexity field emerge. Considering current countries’ development status, divergent emission dynamics appear. According to the RFR, a −6.2% reduction is predicted for developed economies by 2035 and a +19% increase for developing ones (referring to 2020), thus stressing the need to promote green growth and sustainable development in low-capacity contexts.

Interference between multipolar two-photon transitions in quantum emitters near plasmonic nanostructures

In the vicinity of plasmonic nanostructures that support highly confined light fields, spontaneous emission processes, such as two-photon spontaneous emission (TPSE), exhibit higher-order multipolar emission pathways beyond the dipolar one. These multipolar emission channels occur simultaneously and can interfere with each other. We develop a novel framework that computes these interference effects for TPSE of a quantum emitter close to an arbitrary nanostructure. The model is based on the computation of Purcell factors that can be calculated with conventional electromagnetic simulations, which avoids complex analytic calculations for the environment. For a transition of a hydrogen-like emitter close to a graphene nanotriangle, we demonstrate a breakdown of the dipolar selection rule in the TPSE process. This breakdown is due to a huge enhancement of the two-electric dipole (2ED) and of the two-electric quadrupole (2EQ) transitions. We observe an important interference between these multipolar transitions, as it increases the total rate by 67%\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$67 \\, \\%$$\\end{document}. In the end, our framework is a complete tool to design emitters and nanostructures for TPSE, where the exploitation of previously ignored interference effects provides an additional degree of freedom, for example to boost desired transitions and to supress undesirable ones.

Drift when applying biocides to control crawling and flying insects on walls

BackgroundInsecticides are sprayed on external building walls for treatments against crawling and flying insects. These applications can lead to drift into non-target areas and thus to undesirable environmental pollution. This emission pathway needs to be considered during exposure assessments within product authorisations to assess potential environmental risks. However, now, there is only one default value for deposition that is used in all calculations based on the Emission Scenario Document of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development at a distance of 50 cm to the treatment area. This is not sufficient for a risk assessment.ResultsWhen applying a chemical barrier of 50 cm at the bottom of the building wall, wind direction had the greatest influence on drift, while changing the nozzle type had no significant effect. Compared with the measured ground sediments, the OECD default value was deemed to be realistic at a distance of 57 cm from the treatment area. When treating the entire building wall, the wind direction as well as the nozzle used show significant influence on the measured values of drift. The default value for deposition proposed for modelling environmental exposure in OECD document ESD PT18 No. 18 was exceeded. Thus, the exposure estimation might not be protective enough.ConclusionDrift values used for the environmental exposure assessment of biocidal products during treatments of building walls should be adapted. This is especially relevant for treatments of entire building walls, where the current default value was exceeded for all distances from the building wall. Wind direction and nozzle type can reduce environmental impact. This finding can be used as a measure to reduce unnecessary exposure in the environment in the future.

How megacities can achieve carbon peak through structural adjustments: an input–output perspective

Abstract There is still a huge gap between the emissions pathways of megacities and the pathways to meeting the targets set by the Paris agreement. Compared with technological emission reductions, structural emission reduction can provide cities with more stable and sustainable carbon-peaking solutions. This study constructs a scenario-based input–output optimization model, adopting a novel carbon emission accounting method for purchased electricity that considers shared responsibility, and systematically evaluates the decarbonization paths of megacities and their impacts on economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions. The results show that (a) through industry substitution and manufacturing restructuring, Shenzhen is projected to peak at 57.68 MtCO2 emissions in 2026, with a 10.57% energy and a 19.55% carbon reduction by 2030. (b) Shenzhen can achieve its carbon emission peak target through the energy transition while accepting a loss of 0.97%–3.23% of GDP, requiring the maximum economic concession of 16.45% from the transportation sector (S10) in the early stage of transformation, while 12.24% from the extractive industry (S2) in the later stage. (c) The comprehensive structure adjustment proved to be more effective than other mitigation approaches, capable of achieving high-quality economic growth of 6.4% during the study period while reaching a peak target of 53.55 million tons of CO2 by 2026. (d) The emission reduction effect of the power sector was the most significant among all the scenarios, with emission reduction rates between 6.26% and 35.63%, and the cumulative emission reduction potential reached 38.1–110.6 MtCO2. The priority for emission reduction in the power sector is the coal phase-out plan, which is essential for achieving these significant reductions. This study provides an important reference for megacities facing similar challenges, especially those in developing countries, to achieve a stable and sustainable carbon peak pathway through structural adjustment.

Determinants and Pathways of Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Soil Irrigated with Reclaimed Water

Determinants and Pathways of Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Soil Irrigated with Reclaimed Water