Assessing the impact of climate change on a coastal karst aquifer in a semi-arid area

Abstract

This study investigates the potential future state of a coastal karst aquifer located in the Salento peninsula of southern Italy, examining the impact of climate change. After a historical and future overview of the climate in the study area, an analysis of meteorological indices (SPIs and SPEIs) and groundwater levels (GWLs) during the historical period revealed a strong correlation between them. Then, straightforward linear regression models were applied to establish relationships between SPIs/SPEIs and GWLs for the analysed wells. To estimate future SPIs and SPEIs, an ensemble of regional climate models was used, and estimates of GWLs until the end of the century were obtained by incorporating these projections into the regression models. Two emission pathways, the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, were considered in the analysis. The results based on SPIs suggest no significant changes in future GWLs across all wells. However, when considering also temperature through the use of SPEIs, a general decline in groundwater levels is expected, with the decrease being more pronounced under the RCP8.5.