Predicting Groundwater Level Using Climate Change Scenarios in the Southern Part of Mali

Abstract

Groundwater is mainly demanded in all the activities for the population of the southern part especially in the Koda catchment, the studied area. These resources are affected by various factors especially climate change. Therefore, knowing the impact of projected climate change on groundwater recharge is an important issue for water resources management, especially for those responsible for the Koda catchment. In this work, the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the study area in Mali, West Africa is investigated. The Hydrogeological modeling was performed using the Gardenia model, and the monthly precipitation and temperature data were used as the Baseline. These data considered the past 30-year period (1987-2016) and the projections for the next 30 years (2021-2050). Projected precipitation and air temperatures, extracted from the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric climate model (RCA 4) statistically downscaled from the GCM-IHEC-EC-EARTH and the GCM-MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 and corrected with the Multiscale Quantile Mapping bias correction method, were used as input data to the gardenia model. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) values estimated from Blaney Criddle method and groundwater levels measured in three piezometers were used to calibrate the Gardenia model. The outputs display the reduction of groundwater level in the three piezometers in the Koda catchment for all the two Regional Climate Models (RCMs) during the periods of rainy season from July to October. From the results of GCM IHEC-EC-EARTH, the projected decline in GWL reaches 1.09 m for the RCP 4.5 and it up to 1.26 m for the RCP 8.5 in the study area while the GCM MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR presentes the decline in groundwater level (GWL) during winter season from about 0.62 m for the RCP 4.5 up to 1.93 m for the RCP 8:5. Both RCMs project a reduction trend of groundwater recharge over time. It is noticeable that this decline is greater in RCP8.5 for all the three piezometers. The results also show that the average groundwater recharge (90 mm) in the future (2021-2050) is lower (180 mm) than that of the current drought (1987-2016), which could lead to severe drought events. The projected impacts of climate change would have a significant impact on groundwater in the period of 2029-2039; this situation could have a negative impact the socioeconomic activities especially on agriculture, which depends on water resources. The results will help also to take some adaptation measures to climate change, the famers could have a possibility to know the period of groundwater recharge where they have more water infiltration therefore, where to seek crops that need less or more water. The study area presents numerous potential of groundwater, the results could be a tool for groundwater management and to determine the favorable sites to implant new boreholes.