Emission Policies Research Articles

Long-Term Optimal Generation Expansion Planing considering CO2 Reduction Policies and Mechanisms

In a deregulated power system, a well-designed market mechanism could promote the optimal distribution of resources within the system. As one of the major sources of CO2 emissions, power industry can be seriously impacted by carbon emission related policies and regulations. This paper considers three widely promoted emission policies, using a long-term power system planning model to obtain the optimal generation expansion plan for twenty years. By analysing and comparing system investment schemes under different emission-related mechanisms, the processes of how these policies influence generation investment are revealed. The effectiveness of these policies is compared to determine the optimal carbon emission mechanism.

Creating the Dutch One Health Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)

The world is changing, in terms of both climate and socio-economics. These changes have the potential to have a profound impact on the health of humans, animals and the environment, often grouped together as ‘One Health’. Humans, animals and the environment are closely interlinked and to determine realistic future vulnerabilities we must consider everything together. We need comprehensive scenarios which cover a broad range of variables affecting One Health. We developed a methodology to create national-level One Health scenarios based on the global Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), which we applied to the Netherlands. We identified variables which should be included in such scenarios and gathered input from existing scenarios, stakeholder consultation and current plans and commitments. This information was combined to create detailed descriptions, which were used to assess the main health risks under each scenario. All the scenarios face similar challenges, for example an aging population, introductions of infectious diseases and rising sea-levels and extreme weather events; however, in some scenarios, they deal with these challenges much better than in others. The healthiest outcome was achieved when a policy of low greenhouse gas emissions was combined with a well-functioning society which looks after both its citizens and the environment. These scenarios can be used to analyse specific health risks and to consider options for mitigation and preparedness. Because they are national-level scenarios, they allow the local context, policies and customs to be accounted for and should be a valuable tool for protecting One Health in the future.

Long-term trajectory of ozone impact on maize and soybean yields in the United States: A 40-year spatial-temporal analysis

Understanding the long-term change trends of ozone-induced yield losses is crucial for formulating strategies to alleviate ozone damaging effects, aiming towards achieving the Zero Hunger Sustainable Development Goal. Despite a wealth of experimental research indicating that ozone's influence on agricultural production exhibits marked fluctuations and differs significantly across various geographical locations, previous studies using global statistical models often failed to capture this spatial-temporal variability, leading to uncertainties in ozone impact estimation. To address this issue, we conducted a comprehensive assessment of the spatial-temporal variability of ozone impacts on maize and soybean yields in the United States (1981–2021) using a geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model. Our results revealed that over the past four decades, ozone pollution has led to average yield losses of −3.5% for maize and −6.1% for soybean, translating into an annual economic loss of approximately $2.6 billion. Interestingly, despite an overall downward trend in ozone impacts on crop yields following the implementation of stringent ozone emission control measures in 1997, our study identified distinct peaks of abnormally high yield reduction rates in drought years. Significant spatial heterogeneity was detected in ozone impacts across the study area, with ozone damage hotspots located in the Southeast Region and the Mississippi River Basin for maize and soybean, respectively. Furthermore, we discovered that hydrothermal factors modulate crop responses to ozone, with maize showing an inverted U-shaped yield loss trend with temperature increases, while soybean demonstrated an upward trend. Both crops experienced amplified ozone-induced yield losses with rising precipitation. Overall, our study highlights the necessity of incorporating spatiotemporal variability into assessments of crop yield losses attributable to ozone pollution. The insights garnered from our findings can contribute to the formulation of region-specific pollutant emission policies, based on the distinct profiles of ozone-induced agricultural damage across different regions.

Green finance and governance: The effect of climate change

This study aims to investigate the implementation of climate change policy, governance practices, and green financing and the impact of environment, social, and governance (ESG), specifically on the environment, which includes emissions and climate change policy on stock price and firm’s profitability. Qualitative and quantitative methods are employed. An in-depth interview is conducted with nine non-listed firms across Sumatera chosen based on the most significant emissions contribution in Sumatera for the qualitative approach. Furthermore, this research covers green finance variables, including financing spent to finance investments that can reduce carbon levels. An ordinary least square (OLS) is employed for the quantitative analysis. The observations are listed banks on Indonesia Stock Exchange. Eight banks reported ESG during the observation period from 2002 to 2021. The result reveals that ESG, such as environmental, resource use, innovation, and emission policy and practice, positively and significantly influence stock price and profitability which is consistent with Nawaz et al. (2021). This might indicate that ESG are important, as the investors observe. The choice of resources used, innovation in the product/services concerning environmental factors, environmental investment, and climate change action are crucial in affecting the stock price as one of the indicators of investors’ sentiment. In addition, this also indicates that the greater the company focuses on the environment, the higher the profitability and the reinvestment rate.

Емісійна політика підприємства: методичні та практичні аспекти оцінювання її результативності

The article discusses methodical and practical aspects of evaluating the effectiveness of the emission activity of enterprise. The effectiveness of the emission policy is represented by a set of indicators reflecting the achievement of the goals of the IPO (Initial Public Offering of the Company’s Shares on the Stock Exchange) and the company’s activities in the post-emission period. To assess the effectiveness of IPOs of companies, an indicator reflecting the undervaluation/revaluation of shares on the first day of trading was used; to assess the effectiveness of the company’s emission activities in the post-listing period – indicators of capitalization, return on equity, financial leverage, return on assets. To identify the effectiveness of the emission policy of enterprise by single indicators, the method of binary assessment was used. For a generalized conclusion on the effectiveness of the emission activity of the enterprise, the coefficient of effectiveness was used, calculated on the basis of the ratio of the actual and the maximum possible score assessment of the results of the IPO and the post-emission activity of the issuing enterprise. Variants of a combination of indicators of achievement of IPO goals and the company’s activities in the post-emission period are provided, levels of effectiveness of the enterprise’s emission policy are identified. According to the data of the sample population of issuing enterprises, a retrospective analysis of the emission activities of Ukrainian enterprises is carried out. The features of implementation of the emission policy by Ukrainian enterprises have been determined. The unpreparedness of Ukrainian enterprises for listing on foreign stock exchanges, the low level of their transparency and of the introduction of corporate governance are noted. Based on the results of the analysis, it is concluded that Ukrainian enterprises pay uneven attention to different stages of the emission policy, namely: activity at the IPO stage and moderation in ensuring the effectiveness of activities in the post-emission period.

Impact of carbon emission policies on a production inventory model with stock and demand dependent production rate and preservation technology related deterioration

Impact of carbon emission policies on a production inventory model with stock and demand dependent production rate and preservation technology related deterioration

Coal blending optimization in thermal power plants based on multi-strategy fusion multi-objective particle swarm optimization

ABSTRACT Rising coal price and increasingly stringent emission policy highlight the importance of balancing economic benefit and sustainable development of coal-fired power plants. In order to make the power plant operate economically and safely, and reduce the emission of pollutants as much as possible, this paper proposed a coal blending optimization framework for coal-fired power plants. This framework constructs a set of mathematical model based on the minimization objective function, including the economy, safety and environmental protection of coal. And a multi-strategy fusion multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MSF-MOPSO) method is proposed to optimize the coal blending model. The feasibility, effectiveness and superiority of the method are theoretically verified by convergence analysis and several sets of simulation experiments. And the practical application of this framework shows that under the coal blending strategy based on different weight combinations, the algorithm proposed in this paper can produce high-quality Pareto spatial distribution. Comparing with other state-of-the-art coal blending algorithms, this method can reduce the coal purchase cost by 4.42% and S O 2 emission by 5.11% at least under the same condition. It has significant environmental protection and economic benefit.

Nitrogen Electrochemical Reduction into Ammonia: The Li-Mediated Pathway with Lights and Shadows

The lithium-mediated (Li-m) nitrogen reduction reaction (NRR) represents the most promising electrochemical process for renewable-driven and delocalized NH3 production. To move a step forward to the net-zero carbon emission policy and contrast the climate crisis, it is essential to find a complementary pathway to the Haber-Bosh (HB) process, independent from “grey” or “blue” H2 and combinable with renewables. Indeed, HB causes a global average of 2.86 tons of CO2 emitted per ton of NH3 [1].The outstanding reducing power of Li has been applied in different strategies; it is possible to distinguish between continuous processes and step-by-step systems. In the first case, N2 is reduced simultaneously to the protonation into NH3, while, in the second option, the Li nitridation is conducted in the absence of H+ to avoid the competitive hydrogen evolution reaction (HER).The continuous processes have nowadays reached a Faradaic efficiency approaching 100% [2], as well as a commercially relevant ammonia production rate of 153.28 μg/h*cm2 geo at a current density of 1 A/cm2 geo [3] in a batch cell at 20 bars of N2. These systems present some intrinsic drawbacks, such as the proton donor (e.g. ethanol) consumption and the system degradation, that still limit the scalability of the process. To overcome these limits, the E-NRR is recently studied in combination with H2 oxidation reaction and with proton carriers [4], [5].The step-by-step technology could ensure greater stability to the process exploiting the spontaneous chemical reaction between Li3N and H2O. Therefore, this pathway avoids organic molecule degradation, as well as H2 feedstock need and consumption [6]. Moreover, the Li–N2 reaction in a completely aprotic environment could maximize Li exploitation, enhancing scalability. Indeed, the Li reduction step is essential for the mediator recirculation, but it is the most energy-requiring step [6].Li nitridation has been studied both in a direct thermochemical reaction [6] and with promising Li–N2 galvanic cells [7]. In similarity with metallic Li–gaseous batteries (e.g. Li-O2 devices), Li-N2 devices have been recently tested both for NH3 production and for energy storage. Even if this technology is still in its infancy, a proof-of-concept of Li3N formation has been verified [7] and our laboratory is currently addressing this challenge within the SuN2rise project.

Does carbon emission trading policy has emission reduction effect?—An empirical study based on quasi-natural experiment method

As an important measure to reduce carbon emissions, carbon emission trading policy has been widely concerned and implemented around the world. The emission reduction effect of carbon emission trading policy has become a hot topic in theoretical researches and empirical explorations. Hence, this study aims to discuss the impact of the implementation of carbon emission trading policy on the reduction of carbon emissions, as well as the potential influencing paths and mechanisms. The quasi-nature experimental design is conducted with the data of 272 prefecture-level cities in China from 2007 to 2019. The propensity score matching (PSM) and difference-in-difference (DID) methods are adopted to explore and verify the causal relationship between carbon emission trading policy and carbon emissions. The results of this study are as follows: (1) the implementation of carbon emission policy can promote the reduction of carbon emission significantly; (2) the heterogeneity analysis results denote that the effect of carbon emission policy on the reduction of carbon emission varies among cities of different geographical locations; (3) mechanism analysis results indicate that technological capability is the main channel for carbon emission policy promotes the reduction of carbon emission; however, the effect of industry structure upgrading mechanisms is not significant. This manuscript responds to the theoretical issues of carbon emission and provides an empirical basis and references for further promoting the implementation of carbon emission policy.

Future tropospheric ozone budget and distribution over east Asia under a net-zero scenario

Abstract. Under future net-zero emission policies, reductions in emissions of ozone (O3) precursors are expected to alter the temporal and spatial distributions of tropospheric O3. In this study, we quantify changes in the tropospheric O3 budget and in the spatiotemporal distribution of surface O3 in east Asia and the contributions of regional emissions, intercontinental transport and climate change between the present day and 2060 under a net-zero scenario using the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) with online tagging of O3 and its precursors. The results reveal that the global tropospheric O3 burden is likely to decrease by more than 20 %, from 316 Tg in the present day to 247 Tg in 2060, under a net-zero scenario. The burden of stratospheric O3 in the troposphere is expected to increase from 69 to 77 Tg. The mean lifetime of tropospheric O3 is expected to increase by 2 d (∼10 %). Changes in climate under a net-zero pathway are relatively small and only lead to small increases in tropospheric O3. Over eastern China, surface O3 increases in winter due to the weakened titration of O3 by NO associated with reduced anthropogenic NO emissions and due to enhanced stratospheric input. In summer, surface O3 decreases by more than 30 ppbv, and peak concentrations shift from July to May. Local contributions from anthropogenic emissions to surface O3 over east Asia are highest in summer but drop substantially, from 30 % to 14 %, under a net-zero scenario. The contribution of biogenic NO sources is enhanced and forms the dominant contributor to future surface O3, especially in summer (∼40 %). This enhanced contribution is mainly due to the increased O3 production efficiency under lower anthropogenic precursor emissions. Over eastern China, local anthropogenic contributions decrease from 50 % to 30 %. The decreases in surface O3 are strongly beneficial and are more than sufficient to counteract the increases in surface O3 observed in China over recent years. This study thus highlights the important co-benefits of net-zero policies that target climate change in addressing surface O3 pollution over east Asia.

Risk-averse stochastic capacity planning and P2P trading collaborative optimization for multi-energy microgrids considering carbon emission limitations: An asymmetric Nash bargaining approach

The increasing penetration of renewable energy with stochastic characteristics and continuous refinement of carbon emission policies put forward higher requirements for the construction of new power systems. This paper proposes a risk-averse stochastic capacity planning and peer-to-peer (P2P) trading collaborative optimization method for multi-energy microgrids (MEMGs) considering carbon emission limitations. First, a cooperative operation model for MEMGs considering the capacity planning of distributed generation units, uncertainty from renewable energy generations, carbon emission limitations and P2P electricity trading among MEMGs is formulated. Second, a risk-averse stochastic programming method is applied to avoid the potential risk losses caused by randomness and intermittence of renewable energy. Third, an asymmetric Nash bargaining approach is adopted to ensure the fair allocation of benefits and maintain the willingness of individual MEMGs to participate in cooperation. Then, to protect the privacy of individual MEMGs belonging to different stakeholders, the alternating direction method of multipliers is used to solve the two subproblems in a distributed manner. Meanwhile, to further alleviate the computation burdens, a diagonal quadratic approximation method is applied to linearize the quadratic penalty term in the augmented Lagrangian function and realize the parallel solution of all optimization subproblems. Moreover, the influence of different carbon emission targets on the optimal resource combination strategy of the system is investigated by introducing carbon emission factors. Simulations on different models, strategies, and distributed algorithms are conducted to verify the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.

A coordinated generation and voyage planning optimization scheme for all-electric ships under emission policy

The International Maritime Organization has introduced the concept of Emission Control Area to reduce sulfur emissions from coastal areas. The expensive low-sulfur fuels are required to be used in Emission Control Area, leading to increased sulfide emissions due to bypassing by ship operators. It creates new challenges for navigation and power generation scheduling of all-electric ships. This article presents a new bi-objective joint optimization scheme for ship sailing routes and energy management. It considers emission control strategies to balance the total cost of operation and sulfur dioxide emissions throughout the ship’s voyage. Unlike previous optimization problems with fixed routes and sailing time, the influence of emission policies on the operator’s navigation decisions is considered. The route options and sailing time are treated as variables embedded in the model. In addition, the optimization accuracy is improved by integrating the model into mixed integer linear programming through a modified piecewise linearization model. The results show that the total operating cost for the same route is reduced by 6.05%, and the SO2 emission is 8.36% after integrating the emission policy influencing factor in the model. The effectiveness of the proposed scheme is validated, and the model’s necessity for optimizing ship power generation and voyage within Emission Control Area is also illustrated.

Proposal of policies based on temporal-spatial dynamic characteristics and co-benefits of CO2 and air pollutants from vehicles in Shanghai, China

In megacities, vehicle emissions face urgent challenges related to air pollution and CO2 control. To achieve the refinement of vehicle control policies for the co-control of air pollutants and CO2, this study established a vehicle emission inventory with high spatial and temporal resolution based on the hourly traffic flow in Shanghai and analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the real-time vehicle emissions. Meanwhile, a policy evaluation framework was constructed by combining pollutant emission predictions with quantitative co-control effect assessments. The results indicated that spatio-temporal variations in different air pollutants and CO2 could mainly be attributed to primary contributing vehicle types. The pollutants (CO2, CO and VOCs) primarily contributed by private cars exhibited a bimodal pattern in 24-h time series and their spatial distribution was concentrated in the urban city center. The spatial distribution of NOx and PM primarily contributed by heavy trucks was still obvious on non-urban center areas. Furthermore, the results of synergistic effect analysis revealed that the alternative energy replacement scenario demonstrated the most significant potential for the co-control. Based on temporal-spatial and co-benefit analysis, the precise control policy of vehicle emissions can be established through time-, region-, and model-control. This study provides references and research methods for the formulation of the vehicle refinement control policies in worldwide megacities.

Tax policy or carbon emission quota: A theory on traditional ICEV transportation regulation

This study investigates the environmental consequences of consumers opting for traditional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), resulting in heightened pollution. Given the critical importance of addressing environmental degradation and its impact on societal welfare, our research aims to provide insights into effective policymaking strategies. In an ideal scenario, a benevolent planner would equitably distribute wealth, forming the first-best policy. Recognizing the impracticality of this ideal, we propose two viable second-best policies: an income-based tax and the implementation of a carbon emission quota. Theoretical analysis highlights the efficacy of the tax policy in pollution reduction, particularly with the growing number of mid-income electric vehicle consumers. The optimal tax policy adeptly navigates the delicate balance between pollution and income effects. Furthermore, we establish that the optimal pollution quota under the carbon emission policy is lower than in both competitive and first-best scenarios. A numerical comparison of the four equilibrium outcomes underscores these findings. In addition, we advocate for a blockchain-based decentralized carbon emission quota trading platform to digitize and optimize allocation and compliance processes, fostering more efficient and transparent environmental management.

Flare-to-hydrogen in oil and gas industries: Techno-economic feasibility of a net-negative alternative

Gas flaring causes economic losses and energy wastage and is responsible for 1.5 % of the total industrial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the increasing role of low-carbon hydrogen in the energy sector has led to innovative approaches for utilizing flare gas (FG). This study proposed a net-negative and self-sufficient multigeneration system for converting FG into hydrogen and deploying captured CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). In addition, a comprehensive global comparative analysis for the three FG-to-hydrogen production scenarios was performed to address the impact of CO2 emission policies: autothermal reforming with CO2 capture (AACP), autothermal reforming with CO2 capture and EOR utilization (AACPE), and autothermal reforming. The results showed that the AACPE scenario is a promising carbon-reduction alternative, producing 1.31 $/kg and 3.09 kgCO2/kg H2 GHG emission. The deployment of this system results in a 72 % CO2 capture rate. The sensitivity analysis showed that carbon tax policies exceeding 86.2 $/ton CO2 encourage the adoption of carbon-capturing (CC) modules for hydrogen production. Furthermore, because of the flare availability and low energy prices, countries with abundant fossil fuel reserves are particularly well-suited for AACPE implementation. Deploying AACPE in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries-plus regions could significantly reduce carbon emissions by up to 138.72 Mton/year while generating 12.62 Mton/year of hydrogen at an average cost of 0.94 $/kg H2. The widespread use of flare-to-hydrogen systems is expected to help mitigate anthropogenic climate change. However, further studies are essential to explore the industrial feasibility of the plan.

Improved Spatial Resolution in Modeling of Nitrogen Oxide Concentrations in the Los Angeles Basin.

The extent to which emission control technologies and policies have reduced anthropogenic NOx emissions from motor vehicles is large but uncertain. We evaluate a fuel-based emission inventory for southern California during the June 2021 period, coinciding with the Re-Evaluating the Chemistry of Air Pollutants in CAlifornia (RECAP-CA) field campaign. A modified version of the Fuel-based Inventory of Vehicle Emissions (FIVE) is presented, incorporating 1.3 km resolution gridding and a new light-/medium-duty diesel vehicle category. NOx concentrations and weekday-weekend differences were predicted using the WRF-Chem model and evaluated using satellite and aircraft observations. Model performance was similar on weekdays and weekends, indicating appropriate day-of-week scaling of NOx emissions and a reasonable distribution of emissions by sector. Large observed weekend decreases in NOx are mainly due to changes in on-road vehicle emissions. The inventory presented in this study suggests that on-road vehicles were responsible for 55-72% of the NOx emissions in the South Coast Air Basin, compared to the corresponding fraction (43%) in the planning inventory from the South Coast Air Quality Management District. This fuel-based inventory suggests on-road NOx emissions that are 1.5 ± 0.4, 2.8 ± 0.6, and 1.3 ± 0.7 times the reference EMFAC model estimates for on-road gasoline, light- and medium-duty diesel, and heavy-duty diesel, respectively.

THE POLICY EFFECT OF CARBON EMISSIONS TRADING ON GREEN TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION — EVIDENCE FROM MANUFACTURING ENTERPRISES IN CHINA

Based on the panel data of listed Chinese manufacturing enterprises from 2007 to 2019, this study uses the difference-in-differences-based propensity score matching method (PSM-DID) to explore the policy effect of carbon emissions trading on green technology innovation in manufacturing from the perspective of independent innovation of enterprises. The conclusions of this study show that: (1) Carbon emissions trading has significantly improved the level of green technology innovation of manufacturing enterprises; (2) the policy effect of carbon emissions trading on the green patent application is more than twice as much as on green utility model patent application. Compared with green utility model patent, the pilot policy of carbon emissions trading has a more significant and greater policy effect on the green invention patent application; (3) the private enterprises are more sensitive to the pilot policy of carbon emissions trading than state-owned enterprises (SOEs). The carbon emissions trading in China effectively promotes low-carbon and green development of enterprises.

Benefits of net-zero policies for future ozone pollution in China

Abstract. Net-zero emission policies principally target climate change but may have a profound influence on surface ozone pollution. To investigate this, we use a chemistry–climate model to simulate surface ozone changes in China under a net-zero pathway and examine the different drivers that govern these changes. We find large monthly mean surface ozone decreases of up to 16 ppb in summer and small ozone decreases of 1 ppb in winter. Local emissions are shown to have the largest influence on future ozone changes, outweighing the effects of changes in emissions outside China, changes in global methane concentrations, and a warmer climate. Impacts of local and external emissions show strong seasonality, with the largest contributions to surface ozone in summer, while changes in global methane concentrations have a more uniform effect throughout the year. We find that while a warmer climate has a minor impact on ozone change compared to the net-zero scenario, it will alter the spatial patterns of ozone in China, leading to ozone increases in the south and ozone decreases in the north. We also apply a deep learning model to correct biases in our ozone simulations and to provide a more robust assessment of ozone changes. We find that emission controls may lead to a surface ozone decrease of 5 ppb in summer. The number of days with high-ozone episodes with daily mean ozone greater than 50 ppb will be reduced by 65 % on average. This is smaller than that simulated with the chemistry–climate model, reflecting overestimated ozone formation under present-day conditions. Nevertheless, this assessment clearly shows that the strict emission policies needed to reach net zero will have a major benefit in reducing surface ozone pollution and the occurrence of high-ozone episodes, particularly in high-emission regions in China.

Game-Theoretic Capacity Expansion Analysis Under Carbon Emission Constraints

In this paper, we develop a long-term capacity expansion analysis model that considers strategic bidding behavior by dominant generation companies together with new entry decisions, including renewables, to meet a long-term carbon reduction constraint. We deploy a centralized quadratic programming formulation of the Nash-Cournot game to analyze day-ahead electricity market prices. In our model, strategic producers simultaneously make investment and production decisions, deploying an open-loop Cournot game. We have implemented the model for Ukraine's day-ahead electricity market, which has been highly prone to market power issues. The case study results show significant inefficiencies in peak prices and explore scenarios of alternative mitigation options and their efficacies. Finally, the case study is extended to also explore implications of a low carbon future through emission-constrained runs, evaluation of the performance-based emission policy, and sensitivity on different portfolios of new renewable investors.

Climate Change Mitigation in Thailand’s Domestic Aviation: Mitigation Options Analysis towards 2050

Thailand’s civil aviation industry has expanded rapidly in the past ten years resulting in increasing aviation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy consumption. The rapid growth in air transport is anticipated to continue further. Presently, domestic aviation and the economy of many countries are recovering rapidly in the post-COVID-19 period, resulting in fuel consumption and GHG emissions gradually increasing again. However, despite implementing the ICAO’s CORSIA (International Civil Aviation Organization’s Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation) rule for international aviation, GHG emissions in the domestic aviation sector are largely unregulated. Moreover, the literature lacks a GHG emissions analysis that considers this sector’s potential growth and mitigation policies for future GHG emissions. To close the gap, this study conducted a GHG emissions analysis from this sector under various scenarios through 2050 using historical data during 2008–2020 to forecast future trends. It evaluates the impact of the mitigation policies, such as fuel switching and aircraft technology, on improving fuel efficiency due to technological advancements in aircraft and carbon pricing. The results show that the fuel switching option would result in a significant long-term reduction in GHG emissions, whereas the carbon pricing option and aircraft technology option are desirable in reducing GHG emissions in the short term. Therefore, to meet GHG emissions reduction targets more successfully, all measures must be simultaneously executed to address short- and long-term mitigation strategies. These findings have significant implications for both present and future GHG emissions reduction measures, supporting Thailand’s 2050 climate targets and energy efficiency policies as the domestic aviation industry adjusts.