Climate Change Mitigation in Thailand’s Domestic Aviation: Mitigation Options Analysis towards 2050

Abstract

Thailand’s civil aviation industry has expanded rapidly in the past ten years resulting in increasing aviation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy consumption. The rapid growth in air transport is anticipated to continue further. Presently, domestic aviation and the economy of many countries are recovering rapidly in the post-COVID-19 period, resulting in fuel consumption and GHG emissions gradually increasing again. However, despite implementing the ICAO’s CORSIA (International Civil Aviation Organization’s Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation) rule for international aviation, GHG emissions in the domestic aviation sector are largely unregulated. Moreover, the literature lacks a GHG emissions analysis that considers this sector’s potential growth and mitigation policies for future GHG emissions. To close the gap, this study conducted a GHG emissions analysis from this sector under various scenarios through 2050 using historical data during 2008–2020 to forecast future trends. It evaluates the impact of the mitigation policies, such as fuel switching and aircraft technology, on improving fuel efficiency due to technological advancements in aircraft and carbon pricing. The results show that the fuel switching option would result in a significant long-term reduction in GHG emissions, whereas the carbon pricing option and aircraft technology option are desirable in reducing GHG emissions in the short term. Therefore, to meet GHG emissions reduction targets more successfully, all measures must be simultaneously executed to address short- and long-term mitigation strategies. These findings have significant implications for both present and future GHG emissions reduction measures, supporting Thailand’s 2050 climate targets and energy efficiency policies as the domestic aviation industry adjusts.