Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions Research Articles

Atmosphere teleconnections from abatement of China aerosol emissions exacerbate Northeast Pacific warm blob events

During 2010 to 2020, Northeast Pacific (NEP) sea surface temperature (SST) experienced the warmest decade ever recorded, manifested in several extreme marine heatwaves, referred to as "warm blob" events, which severely affect marine ecosystems and extreme weather along the west coast of North America. While year-to-year internal climate variability has been suggested as a cause of individual events, the causes of the continuous dramatic NEP SST warming remain elusive. Here, we show that other than the greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, rapid aerosol abatement in China over the period likely plays an important role. Anomalous tropospheric warming induced by declining aerosols in China generated atmospheric teleconnections from East Asia to the NEP, featuring an intensified and southward-shifted Aleutian Low. The associated atmospheric circulation anomaly weakens the climatological westerlies in the NEP and warms the SST there by suppressing the evaporative cooling. The aerosol-induced mean warming of the NEP SST, along with internal climate variability and the GHG-induced warming, made the warm blob events more frequent and intense during 2010 to 2020. As anthropogenic aerosol emissions continue to decrease, there is likely to be an increase in NEP warm blob events, disproportionately large beyond the direct radiative effects.

Impacts of spatial heterogeneity of anthropogenic aerosol emissions in a regionally refined global aerosol–climate model

Abstract. Emissions of anthropogenic aerosol and their precursors are often prescribed in global aerosol models. Most of these emissions are spatially heterogeneous at model grid scales. When remapped from low-resolution data, the spatial heterogeneity in emissions can be lost, leading to large errors in the simulation. It can also cause the conservation problem if non-conservative remapping is used. The default anthropogenic emission treatment in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is subject to both problems. In this study, we introduce a revised emission treatment for the E3SM Atmosphere Model (EAM) that ensures conservation of mass fluxes and preserves the original emission heterogeneity at the model-resolved grid scale. We assess the error estimates associated with the default emission treatment and the impact of improved heterogeneity and mass conservation in both globally uniform standard-resolution (∼ 165 km) and regionally refined high-resolution (∼ 42 km) simulations. The default treatment incurs significant errors near the surface, particularly over sharp emission gradient zones. Much larger errors are observed in high-resolution simulations. It substantially underestimates the aerosol burden, surface concentration, and aerosol sources over highly polluted regions, while it overestimates these quantities over less-polluted adjacent areas. Large errors can persist at higher elevation for daily mean estimates, which can affect aerosol extinction profiles and aerosol optical depth (AOD). We find that the revised treatment significantly improves the accuracy of the aerosol emissions from surface and elevated sources near sharp spatial gradient regions, with significant improvement in the spatial heterogeneity and variability of simulated surface concentration in high-resolution simulations. In the next-generation E3SM running at convection-permitting scales where the resolved spatial heterogeneity is significantly increased, the revised emission treatment is expected to better represent the aerosol emissions as well as their lifecycle and impacts on climate.

An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics

An ensemble of climate models from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project shows that temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) are projected to increase globally towards the end of the 21st century. However, climate models show a spatially heterogeneous change in precipitation over the tropics. Consequently, future changes in aridity (a measure of water availability) are complex and location-dependent. We assess future changes in aridity using three climate models and several single-forcing experiments. Near-term (2021–2040) changes in aridity are small, and we focus instead on its long-term (2081–2100) changes. We show that the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) primarily explains the spatial pattern, magnitude and ensemble spread of the long-term future changes in aridity. On this timescale, the effects of changes in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols are moderate compared to the effects of increases in atmospheric GHG concentrations. Model diversity in the responses to GHG concentration is large over northern Africa and North and South America. We suggest the large uncertainty is due to differences between models in simulating the effects of an increase in GHG concentrations on surface air temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean, on the interhemispheric temperature gradient, and on PET over North and South America.

Recent reductions in aerosol emissions have increased Earth’s energy imbalance

The Earth’s energy imbalance is the net radiative flux at the top-of-atmosphere. Climate model simulations suggest that the observed positive imbalance trend in the previous two decades is inconsistent with internal variability alone and caused by anthropogenic forcing and the resulting climate system response. Here, we investigate anthropogenic contributions to the imbalance trend using climate models forced with observed sea-surface temperatures. We find that the effective radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosol emission reductions has led to a 0.2 ± 0.1 W m−2 decade−1 strengthening of the 2001–2019 imbalance trend. The multi-model ensemble reproduces the observed imbalance trend of 0.47 ± 0.17 W m−2 decade−1 but with 10-40% underestimation. With most future scenarios showing further rapid reductions of aerosol emissions due to air quality legislation, such emission reductions may continue to strengthen Earth’s energy imbalance, on top of the greenhouse gas contribution. Consequently, we may expect an accelerated surface temperature warming in this decade.

Optical and physical characteristics of aerosols over Asia: AERONET, MERRA-2 and CAMS

A comprehensive study on the regional and spatial distributions of aerosol columnar optical and physical characteristics utilizing high-quality Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) datasets over Asia (Central, South, South-East, and East Asia), along with spatiotemporal collocated validation of two highly-spatially resolved models (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA-2) and Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)) simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Ångström exponent (AE) on annual and seasonal scales, is conducted for the first time. AOD is the highest over South Asia in each season, followed by South-East, East, and Central Asia. Annual regional average AOD at 0.50 μm over South Asia is 0.61. Combined influence of both fine mode anthropogenic aerosol emissions from fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning, and coarse mode dust aerosols from seasonal transport lead to higher AOD and total volume concentration (TVC), and exhibit significant spatiotemporal variations. Coarse volume fraction (CVF) and effective radius (Reff) are higher over Central Asia due to the dominance of coarse dust aerosols. East and South-East Asia are dominated by fine mode aerosols and result in higher fine volume concentration (FVC), AE, fine mode fraction (FMF), and lower Reff. Compared to the other regions of the globe (except Africa), AOD is higher over Asia, with higher spatiotemporal variabilities in AOD, AE, FMF, and TVC. Over Asia, the agreement between AERONET and CAMS AOD is better than that of AERONET and MERRA-2 AOD. For high AOD conditions, underestimation in model AODs is higher, and lower fraction of model AODs satisfy the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) requirement over all regions, and these are more pronounced over Asia. Biases in model AODs are higher over Asia compared to the other regions of the globe, and lower over North America, Europe, and Australia. Higher bias in model AEs compared to AODs over all the regions shows substantial challenges in simulating spectral AOD and appropriate contributions of fine and coarse mode aerosols. These findings over a global aerosol hotspot region, Asia, along with other regions of the globe are crucial for accurate simulation and fine-tuning of aerosol characteristics by regional and global models, and for reducing uncertainties in the assessment of radiative and climate impact of aerosols.

Anthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases

A comprehensive understanding of human-induced changes to rainfall is essential for water resource management and infrastructure design. However, at regional scales, existing detection and attribution studies are rarely able to conclusively identify human influence on precipitation. Here we show that anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the primary drivers of precipitation change over the United States. GHG emissions increase mean and extreme precipitation from rain gauge measurements across all seasons, while the decadal-scale effect of global aerosol emissions decreases precipitation. Local aerosol emissions further offset GHG increases in the winter and spring but enhance rainfall during the summer and fall. Our results show that the conflicting literature on historical precipitation trends can be explained by offsetting aerosol and greenhouse gas signals. At the scale of the United States, individual climate models reproduce observed changes but cannot confidently determine whether a given anthropogenic agent has increased or decreased rainfall.

Spatio-temporal correspondence of aerosol optical depth between CMIP6 simulations and MODIS retrievals over India.

In the present work, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550nm of the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra satellite was utilised to evaluate the AOD simulations of newly emerged general circulation models (GCMs) of coupled model intercomparison project-phase 6 (CMIP6) over the Indian landmass. Further, the AOD from the CMIP6 models has been compared with its previous generation models from CMIP5 to examine the extent of uncertainties in AOD with reference to the MODIS AOD datasets. The evolution of aerosols over India using the different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) has also been studied till the year 2050. The results show that the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models underestimated the mean annual AOD of the Indian region as a whole. A multi-model mean (MMM) of thirteen GCMs from CMIP6 showed an underestimation of AOD by 40 to 60% over the Indo-Gangetic plains, while an overestimation of 60 to 80% in AOD was observed over the Peninsular and Central Indian regions in comparison with MODIS for the study period of 2001 to 2014. In future simulations, the pathway SSP370 has shown a significant increasing trend of AOD whereas SSP126 and SSP585 have shown significant decreasing trends of AOD by the year 2050. In the future, the changes in the AOD will mainly be contributed by the anthropogenic aerosols (AOA, BC, and Sulphates) emissions in all SSPs. The large bias of MMM with the MODIS requires further research in terms of analysing the accuracy of emission datasets that have been used to simulate the AODs by the CMIP6 models over the Indian region.

Process-evaluation of forest aerosol-cloud-climate feedback shows clear evidence from observations and large uncertainty in models

Natural aerosol feedbacks are expected to become more important in the future, as anthropogenic aerosol emissions decrease due to air quality policy. One such feedback is initiated by the increase in biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions with higher temperatures, leading to higher secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production and a cooling of the surface via impacts on cloud radiative properties. Motivated by the considerable spread in feedback strength in Earth System Models (ESMs), we here use two long-term observational datasets from boreal and tropical forests, together with satellite data, for a process-based evaluation of the BVOC-aerosol-cloud feedback in four ESMs. The model evaluation shows that the weakest modelled feedback estimates can likely be excluded, but highlights compensating errors making it difficult to draw conclusions of the strongest estimates. Overall, the method of evaluating along process chains shows promise in pin-pointing sources of uncertainty and constraining modelled aerosol feedbacks.

Asian Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing Played a Key Role in the Multidecadal Increase in Australian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Abstract Observations show a significant increase in Australian summer monsoon (AUSM) rainfall since the mid-twentieth century. Yet the drivers of this trend, including the role of anthropogenic aerosols, remain uncertain. We addressed this knowledge gap using historical simulations from a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models, the CESM2 Large Ensemble, and idealized single-forcing simulations from the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Our results suggest that Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions played a key role in the observed increase in AUSM rainfall from 1930 to 2014, alongside the influence of internal variability. Sulfate aerosol emissions over Asia led to regional surface cooling and strengthening of the climatological Siberian high over eastern China, which altered the meridional temperature and sea level pressure gradients across the Indian Ocean. This caused an intensification and southward shift of the Australian monsoonal westerlies (and the local Hadley cell) and resulted in a precipitation increase over northern Australia. Conversely, the influence of increased greenhouse gas concentrations on AUSM rainfall was minimal due to the compensation between thermodynamically induced wettening and transient eddy-induced drying trends. At a larger scale, aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing played a key role in the climate response over the Indo-Pacific sector and eastern equatorial Pacific, respectively (coined the “tropical Pacific east–west divide”). These findings contribute to an improved understanding of the drivers of the multidecadal trend in AUSM rainfall and highlight the need to reduce uncertainties in future projections under different aerosol emission trajectories, which is particularly important for northern Australia’s agriculture. Significance Statement Australian summer monsoon (AUSM) rainfall plays a vital role in sustaining northern Australia’s unique biodiversity and extensive agricultural industry. While observations show a significant increase in AUSM rainfall since the mid-twentieth century, the causes remain uncertain. We find that anthropogenic aerosol emissions from Asia played a key role in driving this multidecadal AUSM rainfall trend by inducing dynamic adjustments over the Indo-Pacific sector. These findings highlight the need to consider different aerosol emission trajectories when assessing future projections of AUSM rainfall.

Improvement of Surface PM2.5 Diurnal Variation Simulations in East Africa for the MAIA Satellite Mission.

The Multi-Angle Imager for Aerosols (MAIA), supported by NASA and the Italian Space Agency, is planned for launch into space in 2025. As part of its mission goal, outputs from a chemical transport model, the Unified Inputs for Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (UI-WRF-Chem), will be used together with satellite data and surface observations for estimating surface PM2.5. Here, we develop a method to improve UI-WRF-Chem with surface observations at the U.S. embassy in Ethiopia, one of MAIA's primary target areas in east Africa. The method inversely models the diurnal profile and amount of anthropogenic aerosol and trace gas emissions. Low-cost PurpleAir sensor data are used for validation after applying calibration functions obtained from the collocated data at the embassy. With the emission updates in UI-WRF-Chem, independent validation for February 2022 at several different PurpleAir sites shows an increase in the linear correlation coefficients from 0.1-0.7 to 0.6-0.9 between observations and simulations of the diurnal variation of surface PM2.5. Furthermore, even by using the emissions optimized for February 2021, the UI-WRF-Chem forecast for March 2022 is also improved. Annual update of monthly emissions via inverse modeling has the potential and is needed to improve MAIA's estimate of surface PM2.5.

A simple and realistic aerosol emission approach for use in the Thompson–Eidhammer microphysics scheme in the NOAA UFS Weather Model (version GSL global-24Feb2022)

Abstract. A physics suite under development at NOAA's Global Systems Laboratory (GSL) includes the aerosol-aware double-moment Thompson–Eidhammer microphysics (TH-E MP) scheme. This microphysics scheme uses two aerosol variables (concentrations of water-friendly aerosol (WFA) and ice-friendly aerosol (IFA) numbers) to include interactions with some of the physical processes. In the original implementation, WFA and IFA depended on emissions derived from climatologies. In our approach, using the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP), we embedded modules of sea-salt emissions, dust emissions, and biomass-burning emissions, as well as of anthropogenic aerosol emissions, into the Unified Forecast System (UFS) to provide realistic aerosol emissions for these two variables. This represents a very simple approach with no additional tracer variables and therefore very limited additional computing cost. We then evaluated a comparison of simulations using the original TH-E MP approach, which derives the two aerosol variables using empirical emission formulas from climatologies (CTL) and simulations that use the online emissions (EXP). Aerosol optical depth (AOD) was derived from the two variables and appears quite realistic in the runs with online emissions when compared to analyzed fields. We found less resolved precipitation over Europe and North America from the EXP run, which represents an improvement compared to observations. Also interesting are moderately increased aerosol concentrations over the Southern Ocean from the EXP run, which invigorate the development of cloud water and enhance the resolved precipitation in those areas. This study shows that a more realistic representation of aerosol emissions may be useful when using double-moment microphysics schemes.

Increased Asian aerosols drive a slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Observational evidence and climate model experiments suggest a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) since the mid-1990s. Increased greenhouse gases and the declined anthropogenic aerosols (AAs) over North America and Europe are believed to contribute to the AMOC slowdown. Asian AAs continue to increase but the associated impact has been unclear. Using ensembles of climate simulations, here we show that the radiative cooling resulting from increased Asian AAs drives an AMOC reduction. The increased AAs over Asia generate circumglobal stationary Rossby waves in the northern midlatitudes, which shift the westerly jet stream southward and weaken the subpolar North Atlantic westerlies. Consequently, reduced transport of cold air from North America hinders water mass transformation in the Labrador Sea and thus contributes to the AMOC slowdown. The link between increased Asian AAs and an AMOC slowdown is supported by different models with different configurations. Thus, reducing emissions of Asian AAs will not only lower local air pollution, but also help stabilize the AMOC.

Anthropogenic Influence on Decadal Changes in Concurrent Hot and Dry Events over China around the Mid-1990s

The frequency and duration of observed concurrent hot and dry events (HDEs) over China during the growing season (April–September) exhibit significant decadal changes across the mid-1990s. These changes are characterized by increases in HDE frequency and duration over most of China, with relatively large increases over southeastern China (SEC), northern China (NC), and northeastern China (NEC). The frequency of HDEs averaged over China in the present day (PD, 1994–2011) is double that in the early period (EP, 1964–81); the duration of HDEs increases by 60%. Climate experiments with the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM-GOML2) are used to estimate the contributions of anthropogenic forcing to HDE decadal changes over China. Anthropogenic forcing changes can explain 60%–70% of the observed decadal changes, suggesting an important anthropogenic influence on HDE changes over China across the mid-1990s. Single-forcing experiments indicate that the increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations dominates the simulated decadal changes, increasing the frequency and duration of HDEs throughout China. The change in anthropogenic aerosol (AA) emissions significantly decreases the frequency and duration of HDEs over SEC and NC, but the magnitude of the decrease is much smaller than the increase induced by GHGs. The changes in HDEs in response to anthropogenic forcing are mainly due to the response of climatological mean surface air temperatures. The contributions from changes in variability and changes in climatological mean soil moisture and evapotranspiration are relatively small. The physical processes associated with the response of HDEs to GHG and AA changes are also revealed.

The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics

Abstract. Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursor compounds are known to significantly affect the energy balance of the Earth–atmosphere system, alter the formation of clouds and precipitation, and have a substantial impact on human health and the environment. Global models are an essential tool for examining the impacts of these emissions. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of model results to the assumed height of SO2 injection, seasonality of SO2 and black carbon (BC) particulate emissions, and the assumed fraction of SO2 emissions that is injected into the atmosphere as particulate phase sulfate (SO4) in 11 climate and chemistry models, including both chemical transport models and the atmospheric component of Earth system models. We find large variation in atmospheric lifetime across models for SO2, SO4, and BC, with a particularly large relative variation for SO2, which indicates that fundamental aspects of atmospheric sulfur chemistry remain uncertain. Of the perturbations examined in this study, the assumed height of SO2 injection had the largest overall impacts, particularly on global mean net radiative flux (maximum difference of −0.35 W m−2), SO2 lifetime over Northern Hemisphere land (maximum difference of 0.8 d), surface SO2 concentration (up to 59 % decrease), and surface sulfate concentration (up to 23 % increase). Emitting SO2 at height consistently increased SO2 and SO4 column burdens and shortwave cooling, with varying magnitudes, but had inconsistent effects across models on the sign of the change in implied cloud forcing. The assumed SO4 emission fraction also had a significant impact on net radiative flux and surface sulfate concentration. Because these properties are not standardized across models this is a source of inter-model diversity typically neglected in model intercomparisons. These results imply a need to ensure that anthropogenic emission injection height and SO4 emission fraction are accurately and consistently represented in global models.

Amplified Interhemispheric Rainfall Contrast in Boreal Summer Due To Reduction in Anthropogenic Emissions Under COVID‐MIP Green Economic‐Recovery Scenarios

AbstractOur study looks at the precipitation responses to two possible future emission‐mitigation pathways, pushed by the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic (COVID‐19) and achieving carbon neutrality in the mid‐21st century. We find that a simultaneous‐reduction in well‐mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) and anthropogenic aerosol emissions results in an enhanced interhemispheric precipitation contrast in the 2040s by amplifying the interhemispheric thermal contrast and strengthening the meridional overturning circulation in the tropics. Reduced aerosol emissions induce generally‐increased precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and an amplified intertropical rainfall contrast, while reduced WMGHG emissions dominate decrease in precipitation in the areas away from aerosol emission sources. Further, the above precipitation contrast will be enhanced under stronger emission‐mitigation pathways, mainly attributed to larger precipitation increases in the NH caused by reduced aerosols. More aggressive WMGHGs mitigation policies are necessary to counteract the aerosol‐induced warming in the NH, thereby mitigating the risk of regional drying or wetting due to the asymmetry in interhemispheric energy budgets.

Precipitation regime changes in High Mountain Asia driven by cleaner air.

High Mountain Asia (HMA) has experienced a spatial imbalance in water resources in recent decades, partly because of a dipolar pattern of precipitation changes known as South Drying-North Wetting1. These changes can be influenced by both human activities and internal climate variability2,3. Although climate projections indicate a future widespread wetting trend over HMA1,4, the timing and mechanism of the transition from a dipolar to a monopolar pattern remain unknown. Here we demonstrate that the observed dipolar precipitation change in HMA during summer is primarily driven by westerly- and monsoon-associated precipitation patterns. The weakening of the Asian westerly jet, caused by the uneven emission of anthropogenic aerosols, favoured a dipolar precipitation trend from 1951 to 2020. Moreover, the phase transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation induces an out-of-phase precipitation change between the core region of the South Asian monsoon and southeastern HMA. Under medium- or high-emission scenarios, corresponding to a global warming of 0.6-1.1 °C compared with the present, the dipolar pattern is projected to shift to a monopolar wetting trend in the 2040s. This shift in precipitation patterns is mainly attributed to the intensified jet stream resulting from reduced emissions of anthropogenic aerosols. These findings underscore the importance of considering the impact of aerosol emission reduction in future social planning by policymakers.

Predictable decadal forcing of the North Atlantic jet speed by sub-polar North Atlantic sea surface temperatures

Abstract. It has been demonstrated that decadal variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can be predicted by current forecast models. While Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) has been hypothesised as the source of this skill, the validity of this hypothesis and the pathways involved remain unclear. We show, using reanalysis and data from two forecast models, that the decadal predictability of the NAO can be entirely accounted for by the predictability of decadal variations in the speed of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, with no predictability of decadal variations in the jet latitude. The sub-polar North Atlantic (SPNA) is identified as the only obvious common source of an SST-based signal across the models and reanalysis, and the predictability of the jet speed is shown to be consistent with a forcing from the SPNA visible already within a single season. The pathway is argued to be tropospheric in nature, with the SPNA-associated heating extending up to the mid-troposphere, which alters the meridional temperature gradient around the climatological jet core. The relative roles of anthropogenic aerosol emissions and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at generating predictable SPNA variability are also discussed. The analysis is extensively supported by the novel use of a set of seasonal hindcasts spanning the 20th century and forced with prescribed SSTs.

Climate responses in China to domestic and foreign aerosol changes due to clean air actions during 2013–2019

In recent years, to improve air quality, significant efforts have been made to reduce regional aerosols including China, Europe and North America, which have potential impacts on climate. In this study, fast and slow climate responses in China to changes in domestic and foreign anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursors from 2013 to 2019 are investigated using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). Aerosol emissions changes, especially reductions in China, North America and Europe, during 2013–2019 resulted in surface air temperature increases across the Northern Hemisphere. Global aerosol changes induce a regional warming of 0.2 °C in China, equally contributed by domestic and foreign emissions changes. China’s domestic emission reductions lead to a regional average temperature rise of 0.1°C, primarily driven by rapid atmospheric adjustments over eastern China. Foreign aerosol changes, particularly reductions in North America and Europe, also contributed to a 0.1°C warming in China through slow oceanic processes. This warming in China induced by foreign aerosol changes is due to a teleconnection between the aerosol-induced anomalous regional warming in Eastern U.S.-North Atlantic Ocean-Europe and the downstream East Asian climate through anomalous wave trains propagation. The comparable influence of domestic and foreign aerosol changes on climate in China underscores the importance of international collaboration in climate mitigation endeavors.

Observational Constraint on the Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Emission and Anthropogenic Aerosol Removal to Tibetan Plateau Future Warming

AbstractA decline of anthropogenic aerosol (AA) emission is expected worldwide over the coming decades. But the climate effects of aerosol removal and greenhouse gases (GHG) emission at regional scale are poorly distinguished and constrained. Taking the Tibetan Plateau (TP) as an instance, analyses of the state‐of‐the‐art climate models participating in the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project imply that while the observed warming from 1961 to 2020 is predominantly attributed to GHG emission, the future temperature rise will be influenced by the combined effects of persistent increase in GHG concentration and reduction of AA emission. Here, we develop a new constraint method considering the changed contribution of AA forcing. Constrained by detected individual external forcings, the joint contributions of GHG (1.74°C) and AA forcings (0.10°C) will lead to a warming around 1.85°C over the TP during mid‐century (2041–2060) relative to 1995–2014 under SSP2‐4.5 scenario, which is 0.44°C cooler than the raw projection.

Effects of aerosol emission changes on sea ice concentration and thickness in the Russian Arctic during the 2020 lockdown

Abstract During the COVID-19 lockdown, large industries in the Russian Arctic region were closed for two months, leading to a significant reduction in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. This decline in aerosols resulted in a decrease in the human-made aerosol cooling effect. The strict lockdown measures implemented after 18 March 2020 caused a drastic downward fall in considered aerosols. Consequently, there was an impact on air temperature, with temperature differences exceeding 3 K in November and February, while clear-sky top net solar flux values were greater than 13 W m−2. Throughout the lockdown period, the Russian Arctic's annual area average sea ice concentration was 7.72% in 2019 and 7.64% in 2020. The decrease in radiation-scattering pollutants contributed to an increase in global warming. Some pollutants, like sulfur, carbon dioxide, and methane, produced a cooling effect by mitigating greenhouse gases, which could affect the speed of sea ice melt. However, due to the short duration of the pandemic, it remains challenging to determine whether the aerosol changes accelerated or decelerated the sea ice melting process.