Identification Of Emerging Risks Research Articles

EFSA's activities on emerging risks in 2020

The main objectives of EFSA's activities on emerging risks are: (i) to carry out activities to identify emerging risks; (ii) to develop and improve emerging risk identification (ERI) methodologies and approaches; and (iii) communicate the issues and risks identified. The outcome of these activities also allows EFSA to prepare for future risk assessment challenges. The current technical report summarises the activities of all groups involved in the ERI procedure, the issues identified in the course of 2020, a description of the methodologies that have been considered, and collaborative activities. EFSA networks of knowledge contributing to the ERI activity include the Emerging Risks Exchange Network (EREN), the Stakeholder Discussion Group on Emerging Risks, EFSA's scientific units, scientific panels and the Scientific Committee. In total, 13 potential emerging issues were discussed in 2020. Six were concluded to be emerging issues. The potential issues were organised according to the hazard or driver identified. In addition, in 2020, EREN network members presented and discussed a total of 35 signals/potential emerging issues that had been identified by their own horizon-scanning activities. Member State representatives shared their work on signal identification with the objective of collecting additional information that could be used for better characterisation. It is crucial to introduce more dynamic and interactive approaches to gather and disseminate knowledge, while also taking into consideration the potential risks that may arise in new areas.

Emerging risk identification in the food chain – A systematic procedure and data analytical options

Systematic screening for risks emerging in the food chain is essential for the protection of consumer health, however, timely identification of risks is not a trivial task because of the data and information gaps. By creating automated or semi-automated algorithms, a large amount of information can be pre-processed which helps experts to filter for the actual emerging risks that need further assessment. The present study gives an overview on the possible data analytical approaches that can be used for emerging risk screening and presents a practically applicable process management system. By using these methods, 58 emerging risks classified into 10 topics have been identified in 2020 and 2021 with the focus on Hungary and the European Union. The main goal is to aid authorities and industry in preparedness and timely acting to avoid or mitigate future risks. Experiences and limitations of the system and future directions are also presented.

Developing a Video Game as an Awareness and Research Tool Based on SARS-CoV-2 Epidemiological Dynamics and Motivational Perspectives

In mid-2020, the University of Liège (ULiège, Belgium) commissioned the ULiège Video Game Research Laboratory (Liège Game Lab) and the AR/VR Lab of the HEC-Management School of ULiège to create a serious game to raise awareness of preventive measures for its university community. This project has its origins in two objectives of the institutional policy of ULiège in response to the crisis caused by SARS-CoV-2 to raise awareness among community members of various preventive actions that can reduce the spread of the virus and to inform about the emergence and progression of a pandemic. After almost two years of design, the project resulted in the creation of SARS Wars, a decision-making management game for browsers and smartphones. This article presents the creative process of the game, specifically the integration of an adapted SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model, as well as the modeling of intercompartmental circulation dynamics in the game’s algorithm, and the various limitations observed regarding the game’s original missions and possibilities for future work. The SARS-CoV-2 video game project may be considered an innovative way to translate epidemiology into a language that can be used in the scope of citizen sciences. On the one hand, it provides an engaging tool and encourages active participation of the audience. On the other hand, it allows us to have a better understanding of the dynamic changes of a pandemic or an epidemic (crisis preparedness, monitoring, and control) and to anticipate potential consequences in the given parameters at set time (emerging risk identification), while offering insights for impact on some parameters on motivation (social science aspect).

Emerging risk identification by applying data analytical tools.

The working programme 'Emerging risk identification by applying data analytical tools' was delivered by the Digital Food Chain Education, Research, Development, and Innovation Institute (Digital Food Institute, DFI) on the field of emerging risks at the University of Veterinary Medicine Budapest, Hungary. The Institute is the University's research and education unit that provides data analysis and research along the whole food chain and takes networking in this area to a new level. The Fellow joined the hub of experts and researchers in the field of food chain safety data analysis, responsible for protecting public health concerning food in Hungary. The programme consisted of several different activities to provide an overview of the different tools that can be employed in the emerging risk identification process and prepare various stakeholders for new food chain safety issues. The programme was split into four modules to run over the one-year fellowship covering different areas of data analysis and emerging risk identification. The aim was to be fully integrated with the organisation's work experience, increase knowledge of scientific aspects relevant in the field of data analysis and visualisation tools in the emerging risk identification area, and implement the results into various EU stakeholders' environments assessments.

A systematic review into expert knowledge elicitation methods for emerging food and feed risk identification

An emerging risk results “… from a newly identified hazard to which a significant exposure may occur, or from an unexpected new or increased significant exposure and/or susceptibility to a known hazard”. In the field of emerging food and feed risks, expert knowledge elicitation methodologies represent important tools for identifying and addressing data gaps associated with emerging risk identification, particularly under conditions of risk uncertainty and/or ambiguity. A systematic review was conducted to identify expert knowledge elicitation methods which have been used in the context of emerging food and feed risks. The primary research questions were which existing expert knowledge elicitation methodologies have been used to study emerging food and feed risks? and what contexts or situations have been studied using expert knowledge elicitation methodologies in relation to emerging food and feed-related risks? Three databases were searched: Web of Science Core Collection, Scopus, and Google Scholar. Searches covered all studies published from 1998 onwards. A total of 59 studies were included in the review following the application of the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Given the heterogeneity of the included studies, a thematic analysis was applied to assess these papers in relation to the research questions. There was no one expert knowledge elicitation method consistently adopted for the identification of a specific type of emerging food and feed risk. Method triangulation was observed in 23 studies and was reported to improve the validity of results in 15 of these. Most published research considered emerging risks associated with societal controversy (“ambiguous risks”). Although the use of methodological triangulation appears to be helpful in relation to understanding emerging food and feed risks, future research into the development of a harmonised framework will enable the identification, processing, and evaluation of emerging food risks in a systemic way which can facilitate comparative analysis and harmonise mitigation strategies to address emerging risks and their drivers.

Artificial intelligence to detect unknown stimulants from scientific literature and media reports

The world market for food supplements is large and is driven by the claims of these products to, for example, treat obesity, increase focus and alertness, decrease appetite, decrease the need for sleep or reduce impulsivity. The use of illegal compounds in food supplements is a continuous threat, certainly because these compounds and products have not been tested for safety by competent authorities. It is therefore of the utmost importance for the competent authorities to know when new products are being marketed and to warn users against potential health risks. In this study, an approach is presented to detect new and unknown stimulants in food supplements using machine learning. Twenty new stimulants were identified from two different data sources, namely scientific literature applying word embedding on > 2 million abstracts and articles from formal and social media on the world wide web using text mining. The results show that the developed approach may be suitable to detect “unknowns” in the emerging risk identification activities performed by the competent authorities, which is currently a major hurdle.

Identification of Emerging Hazards in Mussels by the Galician Emerging Food Safety Risks Network (RISEGAL). A First Approach.

Emerging risk identification is a priority for the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). The goal of the Galician Emerging Food Safety Risks Network (RISEGAL) is the identification of emerging risks in foods produced and commercialized in Galicia (northwest Spain) in order to propose prevention plans and mitigation strategies. In this work, RISEGAL applied a systematic approach for the identification of emerging food safety risks potentially affecting bivalve shellfish. First, a comprehensive review of scientific databases was carried out to identify hazards most quoted as emerging in bivalves in the period 2016–2018. Then, identified hazards were semiquantitatively assessed by a panel of food safety experts, who scored them accordingly with the five evaluation criteria proposed by EFSA: novelty, soundness, imminence, scale, and severity. Scores determined that perfluorinated compounds, antimicrobial resistance, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, hepatitis E virus (HEV), and antimicrobial residues are the emerging hazards that are considered most imminent and severe and that could cause safety problems of the highest scale in the bivalve value chain by the majority of the experts consulted (75%). Finally, in a preliminary way, an exploratory study carried out in the Galician Rías highlighted the presence of HEV in mussels cultivated in class B production areas.

Determination and Metrics for Emerging Risks Identification DEMETER: Final Report

Identification of emerging risks in the food chain is essential if EFSA is to anticipate future needs in risk assessment, in relation to both data and methodology. The objectives and research proposed in the DEMETER project were specifically designed to support current (and future) EFSA procedures for emerging issue and risks identification by providing community resourcesto allow EFSA and EU Member State authorities to share data, knowledge and methods on emerging risks identification in a rapid and effective manner through a digital platform. To this end, an “Emerging Risk Knowledge Exchange Platform (ERKEP)” was developed as a prototype technical solution. Its design is based on a consultation on end‐users needs and the analysis of existing knowledge sharing solutions. ERKEP consists of three main components: 1) A content management system (CMS) providing the end‐user's “entry point” and Graphical User Interface (GUI) to ERKEP; 2) A web‐based data analytics platform (DAP) for sharing and executing data analytics workflows (DAWs), based on the KNIME Server infrastructure; 3) External web‐based services hosted by 3rd party service providers. Different DAWs were developed and added to the platform, these are: 1) Emerging risk identification system for the milk supply chain based on automated data retrieval; 2) NewsRadar; 3)Trending topics in news based on text mining and network analysis, and;4) Patent network analysis. Methodologies were identified to integrate social science information and data, into the emerging risk identification framework. Systematic reviews of the literature wereconducted in the areas of expert elicitation, citizen science, and behavioural science and a framework to incorporate data from Citizen Science into the EKREP platform was proposed. Finally, sustainability and maintenance of the project's outputs were conceptualized to enable use thereof beyond project DEMETER.

EFSA's activities on emerging risks in 2017

The main objectives of EFSA's activities on emerging risks are: (i) to carry out activities to identify emerging risks in the areas within the remit of EFSA; and (ii) to develop and improve emerging risk identification methodologies and approaches. The current technical report summarises the activities of all groups involved in the emerging risk identification procedure, the issues identified in the course of 2017, a description of methodologies being developed and collaborative activities.EFSA networks of knowledge include the Emerging Risks Exchange Network, the stakeholder discussion group on emerging risks, EFSA's scientific units, scientific panels and the Scientific Committee and its working groups. Summaries of emerging risk identification procedures in use by different stakeholders are presented.A project on the applicability of global food chain analysis for identification of vulnerabilities and drivers of change (AQUARIUS) and two grant agreements with Member States for the development of methodologies and collaboration tools for emerging risk identification (DEMETER) and data collection on ciguatera food poisoning in Europe (EuroCigua) are ongoing. A new project on the application of the procedure for screening chemicals (REACH 2) was initiated.A total of 17 potential emerging issues were discussed in 2017. The issues were assessed against a set of pre-defined criteria: a) new hazard, b) new or increased exposure, c) new susceptible group, and d) new driver. Five issues were not considered to be emerging issues according to EFSA's definition.Follow-up of developments in knowledge or measures taken concerning issues previously identified is extremely difficult and performance of the emerging risk identification procedure should not be based on numbers of issues identified but rather on the process itself. Better collaboration with the scientific community both within EFSA (EFSA units, EFSA networks, panels and working groups) and EU institutions and international organisations is a priority for EFSA but in order to make the procedure more effective, data management systems and digital collaboration platforms are necessary to manage the large amount of data and information available.

Application of data science in risk assessment and early warning.

The currently applied approaches, procedures and tools used for the identification of emerging risks vary greatly among Member States of the EU. EFSA established a structured approach for emerging risk identification that mainly consists of systematically searching, collecting, collating and analysing information and data. In addition, EFSA concluded that new methodologies and tools are needed to facilitate efficient and transparent sharing of data, knowledge and methods in the field of emerging risk identification between Member States. As the result of an open call issued by EFSA, the ‘Determination and metrics of emerging risks’ (DEMETER) project was established in spring 2017 to support current and future procedures for identification of emerging risks. As the Bundesinstitut für Risikobewertung (BfR) hosting site is involved in the DEMETER project, as well as in several other software development activities in the area of quantitative microbiological risk assessment, the fellow had the opportunity to play an active role in the project work and development of the running DEMETER project. The training and close integration in the project team enabled the fellow to make significant contributions, e.g. with the creation of new open source data processing workflows and by contributing to the Emerging Risk Knowledge Exchange Platform (ERKEP) Framework Concept Note. Besides DEMETER, the fellow participated in other activities of the Unit for Food Technologies, Supply Chains and Food Defence, including testing and applying several BfR open source software tools which had been developed in previous projects and that are used in microbiological risk assessment (e.g. Predictive Microbial Modelling Lab (PMM‐Lab)) or as automatic data retrieval systems (e.g. SiLeBAT NewsRadar) – see https://foodrisklabs.bfr.bund.de.

Emerging risks identification on food and feed - EFSA.

The European Food Safety Authority's has established procedures for the identification of emerging risk in food and feed. The main objectives are to: (i) to carry out activities aiming at identifying, assessing and disseminating information on emerging issues and ensure coordination with relevant networks and international organisations; (ii) promote the identification of data sources and data collection and /or data generation in prioritised emerging issues; and the (iii) evaluate of the collected information and identify of emerging risks. The objective(s) of the Standing Working Group on Emerging Risks (SWG‐ER) is to collaborate with EFSA on the emerging risks identification (ERI) procedure and provide strategic direction for EFSA work building on past and ongoing projects related to EFSA ERI procedure. The SWG‐ER considered the ERI methodologies in place and results obtained by EFSA. It was concluded that a systematic approach to the identification of emerging issues based on experts’ networks is the major strength of the procedure but at present, it is mainly focused on single issues, over short to medium time horizons, no consistent weighting or ranking is applied and clear governance of emerging risks with follow‐up actions is missing. The analysis highlighted weaknesses with respect to data collection, analysis and integration. No methodology is in place to estimate the value of the procedure outputs in terms of avoided risk and there is urgent need for a communication strategy that addresses the lack of data and knowledge uncertainty and addresses risk perception issues. Recommendations were given in three areas: (i) Further develop a food system‐based approach including the integration of social sciences to improve understanding of interactions and dynamics between actors and drivers and the development of horizon scanning protocols; (ii) Improve data processing pipelines to prepare big data analytics, implement a data validation system and develop data sharing agreements to explore mutual benefits; and (iii) Revise the EFSA procedure for emerging risk identification to increase transparency and improve communication.

Testing a text mining tool for emerging risk identification

Testing a text mining tool for emerging risk identification

EFSA's activities on emerging risks in 2015

EFSA Supporting PublicationsVolume 13, Issue 10 1100E Technical reportOpen Access EFSA's activities on emerging risks in 2015 European Food Safety Authority, European Food Safety AuthoritySearch for more papers by this authorAna Afonso, Ana AfonsoSearch for more papers by this authorRaquel Garcia Matas, Raquel Garcia MatasSearch for more papers by this authorAndrea Germini, Andrea GerminiSearch for more papers by this authorCaroline Merten, Caroline MertenSearch for more papers by this authorTobin Robinson, Tobin RobinsonSearch for more papers by this author European Food Safety Authority, European Food Safety AuthoritySearch for more papers by this authorAna Afonso, Ana AfonsoSearch for more papers by this authorRaquel Garcia Matas, Raquel Garcia MatasSearch for more papers by this authorAndrea Germini, Andrea GerminiSearch for more papers by this authorCaroline Merten, Caroline MertenSearch for more papers by this authorTobin Robinson, Tobin RobinsonSearch for more papers by this author First published: 17 October 2016 https://doi.org/10.2903/sp.efsa.2016.EN-1100Citations: 2 Requestor: EFSA Question number: EFSA-Q-2016-00476 AboutPDF ToolsExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat References Choi J, Aarøe Mørck T, Polcher A, Knudsen LE and Joas A, 2014. Review of the state of the art of human biomonitoring for chemical substances and its application to human exposure assessment for food safety. EFSA Supporting Publications 2015; 12(2):EN-724, 321 pp. doi: 10.2903/sp.efsa.2015.EN-724 EFSA (European Food Safety Authority), 2007. Definition and description of ‘emerging risks’ within the EFSA's mandate. http://www.efsa.europa.eu/sites/default/files/scientific_output/files/main_documents/escoemriskdefinition.pdf EFSA (European Food Safety Authority), 2011. EFSA's 15th Scientific Colloquium on emerging risks in food: from identification to communication. EFSA Supporting Publications 2012:EN-114. doi: 10.2903/sp.efsa.2011.EN-114 EFSA (European Food Safety Authority), 2012a. Towards a methodological framework for emerging risks identification. EFSA Supporting Publications 2012:EN-243, 42 pp. EFSA (European Food Safety Authority), 2012b. Piloting a process for Emerging Risk Identification: lessons learnt and next steps. EFSA Supporting Publications 2011:EN-310, 39 pp. EFSA (European Food Safety Authority), 2015. Identification of emerging risks: an appraisal of the procedure trialled by EFSA and the way forward. EFSA supporting publication 2015:EN-824, 30 pp. EFSA (European Food Safety Authority) 2016a. 2015 Report of the activities of Stakeholders Consultative Group on Emerging Risks in the area of emerging risks. EFSA Supporting Publications 2016:EN-1003, 20 pp. EFSA (European Food Safety Authority) 2016b. Annual report of the Emerging Risks Exchange Network 2015. EFSA Supporting Publications 2016: 13(7):EN-1067, 36 pp. doi: 10.2903/sp.efsa.2016.EN-1067 Richardson J, Lockhart C, Pongolini S, Karesh WB, Baylis M, Goldberg T, Slingenbergh J, Gale P,Venturini T, Catchpole M, de Balogh K, Pautasso M, Broglia A, Berthe F, Schans J and Poppy G, 2016. Special issue: drivers for emerging issues in animal and plant health. EFSA Journal 2016; 14(S1):s0512, 11 pp. doi:10.2903/j.efsa.2016.s0512 Citing Literature Volume13, Issue10October 20161100E ReferencesRelatedInformation

Microbiological Zoonotic Emerging Risks, Transmitted Between Livestock Animals and Humans (2007-2015).

As part of the Emerging Risk Identification (ERI) activities of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), a literature search was conducted to identify the microbiological agents transmitted between livestock animals and humans that have been suggested as having emerged between 2007 and 2015 in peer-reviewed scientific literature published during the same period (2007-2015). According to the criteria set, the search identified seven such zoonotic agents, namely West Nile Fever virus, Rift Valley Fever virus, Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever virus, Influenza A H1N1 virus, Coxiella burnetii, Streptococcus suis and livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus clonal complex 398. An explanation of the agents' consideration as emerging risks is provided. The experience gained from these emergences has shown that the detection of and response to such risks can be achieved faster and more successfully within a multidisciplinary, collaborative context at the field, local, national and international levels.

Identification of emerging risks: an appraisal of the procedure trialled by EFSA and the way forward

Identification of emerging risks: an appraisal of the procedure trialled by EFSA and the way forward

Towards a methodological framework for emerging risk identification

Towards a methodological framework for emerging risk identification

Effective identification and management of emerging food risks: Results of an international Delphi survey

Early identification of emerging food risks will protect human and animal health, the environment and economy. A two-round Delphi survey identified international experts’ views regarding knowledge gaps associated with the identification and mitigation of emerging food risks, and barriers to emerging risk identification and prevention. The results suggest that keeping emerging food risk on research agendas, data sharing, and international harmonisation regarding application of predictive methodologies were priorities. Capacity and capability building were required in less-affluent countries. A framework for dealing with exceptions to global rules is required if deviations from international standards are to be applied locally.

Selection of critical factors for identifying emerging food safety risks in dynamic food production chains

A pro-active emerging risk identification system starts with the selection of critical factors related to the occurrence of emerging hazards. This paper describes a method to derive the most important factors in dynamic production chains starting from a gross list of critical factors. The method comprised the semi-quantitative evaluation of the critical factors for a relatively novel product on the Dutch market and a related traditional product. This method was tested in an expert study with three case studies. The use of group discussion followed by individual ranking in an expert study proved to be a powerful tool in identifying the most important factors for each case. Human behaviour (either producers’ behaviour or human knowledge) was the most important factor for all three cases. The expert study showed that further generalization of critical factors based on product characteristics may be possible.