Emerging Market Economies Research Articles

The Dynamic Endogeneity Issue between Corporate Ownership Structure and Real-Based Earnings Manipulation in an Emerging Market: Advanced Dynamic Panel Model

This study aims to contribute to the existing literature by examining the relationship between corporate governance (CG) attributes and real-based earnings management (REM) in the context of an emerging market economy. The study employs a sample of 78 Egyptian Exchange (EGX)-listed companies covering the period from 2008 to 2017, yielding a total of 780 observations. To address dynamic endogeneity concerns between CG mechanisms and REM, the dynamic panel system-generalized method of moments (SGMM) estimator is used as the main analytical tool. The findings reveal that managerial and family ownership are negatively and significantly correlated with REM proxies, except for the ABCFO measure. By contrast, government and institutional ownership exhibit contrasting results, depending on the REM proxies used. The CG-EM relationship is influenced by several conflicting theoretical perspectives, including agency theory, institutional theory, stewardship theory, and resource dependence theory, resulting in inconsistent empirical findings. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to detect Real-earnings manipulation practices (REM) in the Egyptian context using six models to confirm the validity, reliability, and robustness of the findings. Additionally, the study employs an advanced statistical technique that considers endogeneity, heteroscedasticity, and simultaneity in the relationship between CG mechanisms and earnings quality. The results highlight the importance of considering the institutional and legal context of a country when analyzing the impact of corporate governance mechanisms on earnings quality, as the practice and implementation of governance mechanisms vary across countries.

YÜKSELEN PİYASA EKONOMİLERİNDE DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLAR, TİCARİ AÇIKLIK VE CO2 İLİŞKİSİ

In this study, it was aimed to investigate the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade openness (TO) on environmental pollution. The study was conducted on Emerging Market Economies (EMEs), which are subject to flexible practices and conditions to attract trade and investment. The 1990-2020 data of 15 countries included in the IMF's EMEs category were tested with the following methods: The cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag estimator (CS ARDL), Main Group (MG), Common Correlated Effects Mean Group Estimators (CCE), Augmented Mean Group (AMG), Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse (2011) Causality Test. The variables used were FDI, TO, GDP per capita and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. According to the results of the coefficient estimators, it was found that only GDP had a significant and positive effect on CO2 in both the short and long term, and there was no significant relationship between FDI-CO2 and TO-CO2. According to the causality test results, it was determined that there is a unidirectional relationship from CO2 to FDI and from TO to CO2, and a bidirectional relationship between GDP and CO2.

Validating the Productivity Bias Hypothesis: Evidence from Selected Emerging Market Economies

Amaç: Bu araştırmanın amacı, seçilmiş 10 büyük yükselen piyasa ekonomisinde verimlilik yanlılığı hipotezinin (VYH) geçerliliğini 1991-2021 dönemi için test etmektir.
 Yöntem: Bu araştırmada yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan panel veri analiz yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Bu bağlamda öncelikle birim-kök testiyle kullanılan değişkenlerin (nispi verimlilik ve reel döviz kuru) durağanlık dereceleri belirlenmiştir. Sonraki aşamada kesirli frekanslı esnek Fourier yapılı panel eş-bütünleşme testiyle modeldeki değişkenlerin eş-bütünleşik olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Araştırmanın son aşamasında genişletilmiş ortalama grup (AMG) yöntemiyle uzun dönemde nispi verimliliğin reel döviz kurunu nasıl etkilediği bulunarak VYH’nin geçerliliği sınanmıştır.
 Bulgular: Birincisi, nispi verimlilik ve reel döviz kuru hem oluşturulan panelde hem de paneldeki ülkelerin tamamında eş-bütünleşiktir. İkincisi, oluşturulan panelde ve paneldeki 10 ülkenin 8’inde (Çin, Mısır, Endonezya, Hindistan, Güney Kore, Polonya, Türkiye ve Güney Afrika) nispi verimliliğin uzun dönemde reel döviz kurunu artırdığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, VYH’nin geçerliliğini doğrulamaktadır. Son olarak Brezilya ve Meksika’da VYH reddedilmiştir.
 Özgünlük: Yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde VYH’nin geçerliliğini inceleyen çalışma sayısı son derece sınırlıdır. Ayrıca bu araştırmada kullanılan panel eş-bütünleşme testi, kesirli frekanslı Fourier fonksiyonları yardımıyla, yapısal kırılmaları dikkate almaktadır.

The Relationship between Innovation and Unemployent in Emerging Market Economies: Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

İktisat literatürü, teknolojik yeniliklerin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde katalizör etkisine sahip olduğu konusunda fikir birliği içerisindedir. Buna karşın, teknolojik yeniliklerin işsizlik üzerine etkileri konusunda tartışmalar devam etmektedir. Bu çalışmada; yükselen piyasa ekonomilerindeki teknolojik gelişimin, işsizlik üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Yükselen piyasa ekonomileri, gelişmekte olan ülkeler grubu içerisinde yer almasına karşın, bazı nitelikler nedeniyle gelişmiş ülkelere benzemektedirler. Yüksek ekonomik büyüme performansına sahip bu gruptaki ülkelerde, aynı zamanda yüksek işsizlik ile mücadele etmektedir. Çalışmanın bulgularına göre; yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde teknolojik gelişim ile işsizlik arasında negatif ilişki tespit edilmiştir. İlişkinin negatif yönde olduğu fakat kuvvetinin zayıf olduğu görülmüştür.

EMERGING MARKETS ECONOMIES SENSITIVITY TO US DOLLAR'S STRENGTH DURING RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR

This paper aims to study the sensitivity of emerging markets economies (EMEs) to the US Dollar's strength during the Russian-Ukrainian war in the long and the short run, where Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) was used to analyze time series daily data in the period 2020-2023. We studied the impact of the US Dollar's strength on EMEs asset prices: EMEs currencies, EMEs bonds (US Dollar-denominated) and EMEs stocks, including the factor of the Russian-Ukrainian war as a dummy variable, as well as the effects of various economic factors: Federal Funds Rate, the US 10-year bond yield, commodity prices index and gold prices. The results showed that Russian-Ukrainian war has a significant positive impact on US Dollar's strength. In the other hand, both of them have significant negative impacts on EMEs asset prices, with varying degrees, where the aforementioned economic factors have asymmetric impacts. Moreover, EMEs stocks were the most Sensitive to Russian-Ukrainian war, US Dollar's strength and commodity prices, meanwhile EMEs bonds market were the least Sensitive.

Examining Collateral Prerequisites for Small and Medium-Sized Business Loans

This paper examines the factors that affect loan collateral specifically for SMEs in Lebanon, which is a country with a small, open emerging market economy. Collateral should secure the bank loan, but in practice it is adjusted according to other socio-economic criteria of the firms. This is especially true for SMEs and even more so for emerging countries. We propose in this research to illustrate the signals mobilized by banks when granting secured loans. The data on these variables come from the Lebanese Central Bank and the World Bank. They contain observations for two samples - 532 firms for 2019 and 561 firms for 2013. A set of factors influence the level of collateral required: those related to firm characteristics (relevant variables: age, size, audit of financial statements, provision of training to workers, private shareholder ownership, quality recognition, experiencing at least one bribe request, female manager), manufacturing (reflects economic sector), interest rate (reveals loan characteristics), and location in the capital (reveals loan market characteristics). The logistic regression estimates suggest that collateral required by older firms is higher even that SMEs have financial statement revised annually by external auditors. Size and interest rate contribute to lower collateral requirements. The consistency of results in the combined panel, 2013, and 2019 shows the reliability of the Lebanese Banking Sector norms and policies

Flights to safe assets in bond markets: Evidence from emerging market economies

This paper investigates cross-border flights to safety (FTS) in sovereign bond markets from the perspective of emerging market economies (EMEs). Accurate identification of such events provides a detailed picture of sharp changes in prices of international assets and potential sources of EMEs' financial fragility. We construct new measures of the FTS occurrence and magnitude by focusing on extreme movements in long-term bond markets vis-à-vis the US for a diverse group of 21 EMEs. An adaptable time-series anomaly detection algorithm is used to recognize patterns in daily data on bond returns from 2002 to 2021. The paper shows that the FTS episodes in the entire sample of EMEs turn out to be short-lived and map well into periods of international financial and economic downturns. The results from panel-data models indicate that country-specific factors, in particular economic fundamentals, matter more for the FTS magnitude than for their mere occurrence. This supports the notion that flights from bond markets are usually triggered by shocks originating outside of EMEs, but the magnitude of these events may materially depend on their domestic conditions, including macroeconomic stability and policy factors. Moreover, the country-specific factors are more important when FTS episodes are driven by external financial risk and US monetary policy rather than shifts in global economic activity.

What would it cost to connect the unconnected? Estimating global universal broadband infrastructure investment

Roughly 3 billion citizens remain offline, equating to approximately 40 percent of the global population. Therefore, providing Internet connectivity is an essential part of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (Goal 9). In this paper a high-resolution global model is developed to evaluate the necessary investment requirements to achieve affordable universal broadband. The results indicate that approximately $418 billion needs to be mobilized to connect all unconnected citizens globally (targeting 40–50 GB/Month per user with 95 percent reliability). The bulk of additional investment is for emerging market economies (73 percent) and low-income developing countries (24 percent). To our knowledge, the paper contributes the first high-resolution global assessment which quantifies universal broadband investment at the sub-national level to achieve SDG Goal 9.

Time-variation in the effects of push and pull factors on portfolio flows: Evidence from a Bayesian dynamic factor model

The extent to which push and pull factors affect international capital flows is widely debated. We contribute to this strand of literature by estimating the relative importance of push and pull factors for portfolio flows over a time span, encompassing the global financial crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis as well as the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. To do so, we extract common and country-specific components from fund flow data using Bayesian dynamic factor models with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. Assuming that the common component represents push factors and the country-specific component pull factors, we show that (i) time-variation matters and (ii) there is a substantial amount of heterogeneity in the importance of factors across regions (advanced versus emerging market economies) and asset classes (equity versus bonds). We find that the relative importance of push factors for flows into advanced economies has on average increased over time, particularly for EU countries. With respect to flows into emerging market economies, we find very heterogeneous results between individual countries. Moreover, we identify risk measures, US stock market returns, US real interest rates, the US real effective exchange rate and the oil price as important push factors. Pull factors seem to covary with domestic stock market returns, in particular.

Ownership Structure and Bank Performance in Emerging Market Economy: Evidence From Nigerian Listed Deposit Money Banks

In the emerging market economies the influencing power of different strands of ownership structure and ownership concentration on the risk-adjusted returns on assets and equity, dividend yield, earnings, and cost-to income ratio of listed deposit money banks has not been thoroughly investigated. The diminutive research and equivocal findings of previous studies on this subject create grounds for further investigation. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the extent to which these three constructs relate in listed deposit money banks an emerging market economy, Nigeria. Panel data multiple regressions were applied to data extracted from the annual reports from 2009 to 2020 to test the six hypotheses. The results indicate that the disaggregated ownership structure and concentrated ownership relate positively and significantly to the bank performance indices, thereby supporting convergence of owners and managers interests which reduces the agency problems and increases the financial performance of firms. The novelty of this study is the introduction of new indices for measuring performance, ownership structure and concentration which are total departure from the usual method in both emerging and developed market economies. Further research can be extended in other economies using the same computational methods.

DEBT STRUCTURE AND FIRM PERFORMANCE IN VIETNAMESE STOCK MARKET

This study investigates the relationship between debt structure and firm performance among a comprehensive sample of 546 Vietnamese listed firms over the period 2010 to 2020. The purpose of the research carried out in the article is to establish the relationship between the debt structure and the results of the firm's activities. Employing a fixed-effect method, we analyze the intricate interplay between debt composition and various dimensions of firm performance within the unique economic and institutional context of Vietnam. Our findings reveal a significant and negative association between debt structure and firm performance, shedding light on the intricate dynamics that shape corporate financial decisions and outcomes in the Vietnamese market. Specifically, our analysis indicates that firms with a higher proportion of debt experience decreased levels of performance across multiple performance metrics, including profitability, growth, and operational efficiency. This negative relationship between debt structure and firm performance underscores the importance of optimal capital structure decisions and strategic financial management for Vietnamese listed firms. Our study contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence that extends our understanding of the nuanced determinants of firm performance within emerging market economies. Moving forward, further research could delve deeper into the underlying mechanisms that drive the observed negative relationship. Additionally, exploring potential moderating factors, such as industry-specific characteristics or changes in economic conditions, could provide a more nuanced perspective on the interplay between debt structure and firm performance. Ultimately, this study contributes to the ongoing dialogue on optimal capital structure decisions and their ramifications for the long-term success and sustainability of Vietnamese listed firms, guiding them toward more informed and effective financial strategies.

Foreign currency borrowing and risk exposure of firms: An emerging market economy viewpoint

Foreign currency borrowings by emerging market corporations have increased significantly post-global financial crisis. Extant literature has mainly focussed on the flow of foreign currency borrowings, and policies which control the volatility of the flow of the foreign currency borrowings. In this paper, we emphasize the stock of the foreign currency borrowings in the balance sheet of a firm instead of the flow of the foreign currency borrowings, and show the ineffectiveness of policies focused on controlling the flow of foreign currency borrowings. We use the data of non-financial Indian firms listed in the Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange. Our analysis show the fallacy of a policy focussed on controlling the flow of foreign currency borrowings. Despite policies which control the flow of the foreign currency borrowings, if a firm has a high stock of foreign currency borrowings in their balance sheet then the financial risk associated with the firm increases. A possible implication of our results is that too much foreign currency borrowings may pile up the risk in the financial system which may become a cause of concern.

Capital flow management and monetary policy to control credit growth

AbstractThis paper examines whether capital flow management and monetary policies effectively reduce credit growth in emerging market economies in the presence of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy actions undertaken by advanced economies. We apply a dynamic panel model with fixed effects to a sample of 21 emerging market economies from 2000 to 2020 using quarterly data and more continuous variables than in other studies rather than limiting the variability using proxies. We find that capital controls and macroprudential regulation, as tools of capital flow management policy, moderate credit growth. This effect is particularly shown in countries with tighter monetary conditions. Our main findings highlight the useful role of coordinating capital flow management and monetary policies. This role stands for both fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. Lastly, we find capital flow management and monetary policies manage to control credit in normal periods, but their coordination is less effective during crises and high volatility periods. Robustness checks suggest that these findings are stable across alternative proxies used in the literature, thus providing additional support for the validity of our results.

The endogeneity of monetary policies of emerging market economies

ABSTRACT We analyse the responses of the monetary policy of five (Brazil, Chile, Mexico, India, and South Africa) emerging market economies (EME) to domestic and external (U.S.) shocks. We argue that the domestic policy rate is sensitive to risk premiums, financial markets, and the world economy, showing that Taylor’s Rule can benefit from the inclusion of these variables to understand the behaviour of the monetary authority. Therefore, our results suggest the following: i) policy rates are affected by risk premiums, ii) domestic monetary policy is affected by exchange rates, stock markets, and the U.S. and iii) there is heterogeneity in the factors explaining the behaviour of central banks.

Islamic bank procyclicality in an emerging market economy: Do bank size and financing contracts matter?

Using a sample of Islamic banks in Indonesia, our empirical findings demonstrate a positive relationship between economic growth and financing growth in Islamic banks, indicating procyclical behavior. However, the degree of procyclicality varies depending on bank size, with small banks exhibiting a more pronounced procyclical behavior compared to large banks, which display a countercyclical pattern. Our deeper analysis reveals that consumption financing contracts through Murabahah and Istisna contribute to the countercyclical behavior observed in large Islamic banks. Moreover, Musharakah as a productive financing contract does not exhibit procyclical behavior regardless of bank size. In contrast, another productive financing contract, Mudharabah, can lead large Islamic banks to behave countercyclically. Additionally, Ijarah, a leasing contract used for either consumption or productive purposes, exhibits a procyclical pattern in large Islamic banks, indicating that it cannot serve as a hedge during economic downturns for these banks. Overall, these results underscore the importance of Islamic bank consolidation, as large Islamic banks tend to effectively overcome procyclicality throughout the business cycle by utilizing the majority of financing contracts.

Legal Dilemmas in the Regulation of Mergers and Acquisitions of Chinese Multinational Corporations in the Context of Comparative Law and its Response

The global economy is in a sustained recession due to the impact of the new epidemic. As one of the few economies 'bucking the trend', Chinese companies have been presented with new opportunities to invest and merge overseas. However, decades after the 'going out' strategy was implemented, China still suffers from over-regulation, lack of regulations and inadequate protection for its cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions companies, resulting in frequent failures. How to address the risks of overseas Mergers and Acquisitions by Chinese companies from a national perspective is an urgent issue. This paper compares Chinese Mergers and Acquisitions regulations with those of other countries and examines the problems, causes, advantages of other countries and solutions for China. It is concluded that "imperfect legal norms", "restrictions between China and other countries" and "lack of fluent legal information on enterprises" are the factors that lead to the problems. The reason for this is that China is an emerging market economy that lacks the time to accumulate experience and improve. Through this analysis, recommendations are made to the Chinese government to improve regulations, taxes and remedies.

The Shock Absorbing Role of Cross-border Investments: Net Positions Versus Currency Composition

We present a comprehensive analysis of the shock absorption role of external positions using the currency exposures dataset by Bénétrix et al. (2020). While the literature has frequently studied how the net international investment position and its currency composition determine the direction and scale of valuation effects, we focus on their amplitude. This is of central importance for global financial stability given the large and increasing scale of external balance sheets. To that end, we propose an indicator showing the extent to which external positions absorb or amplify exchange rate shocks. Analysing a set of 50 countries over the period 1990-2017, we find the external shock absorption role to be present for advanced economies, while this was initially not the case for emerging markets economies (EMEs). In recent years, however, EMEs’ external positions increasingly showed a shock absorption capacity. Our regression-based analysis reveals that the level of economic and financial development is associated with a greater capacity to absorb exchange rate shocks.

What moves commodity terms-of-trade? Evidence from 178 countries

Despite the important impact of commodity terms-of-trade (CTOT) on GDP growth, child mortality rates and public debt, little is known about its determinants. Using data from 178 countries (grouped according to their commodity export-import structure) over the period 1962 to 2020, we examine the short-and long-run effects of global economic activity, OECD and emerging markets growth, the exchange rate of U.S. dollar, stock price volatility and real interest rates on CTOT growth. We demonstrate their typical asymmetric effect on exporters and importers, and show, for example, that the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar also exhibits opposite effects over the short and long run due to inelastic commodity demand. We find that the growth of emerging market economies provides the most universal and consistent effect across all of our subsamples (i.e., energy and non-energy exporters and importers) - this latter point underscores the contemporary global importance of developing countries' growth.

Are business cycles in emerging market economies alike?

Are business cycles in emerging market economies alike?

Monetary Policy Shocks and Unemployment in Emerging Market Economies in Africa

ABSTRACT: Unemployment remains a global challenge that requires additional ways of dealing with it. Therefore, the role of Reserve or Central Banks in reducing unemployment is of recent seeking more attention. This paper examines monetary policy shocks and unemployment nexus in the emerging market economies in Africa. The models of this study are designed within the panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) framework. The models majorly rely on the New Keynesian model. Given the nominal rigidities of the New Keynesian model, the monetary policy can therefore, serve as an important tool which can have a reasonable leverage on real variables. As claimed by Bernanke (2007) that the stance of monetary policy was appropriate to prevent deflation and high unemployment and as it has been empirically tested for developed economies, this paper provides a quantitative evaluation of an aspect of such statement in the context of emerging economies of Africa. We used annual data series on five emerging economies in Africa over the period 1991 to 2020, making 150 balanced panel data observations. The countries include, Egypt, Mauritius, Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa. The selection was based on those African countries identified as emerging markets by various international bodies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), James O'Neill, Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE), S&P Global Ratings, EM Bond Index, Dow Jones, Russell, Columbia University and Cornell University. The findings of the study revealed that unemployment falls for at most four periods in response to contractionary monetary policy shocks while the response dissipates afterwards. Individually, unemployment rate in Mauritius and Nigeria rose in response to contractionary monetary policy shocks while in South Africa, Egypt and Morocco, it falls in response to contractionary monetary policy shocks. By and large, the results seem to show credence to the effectiveness of monetary policy in each country to achieve desired macroeconomic targets. The main implication of the results is that, expansionary monetary and fiscal policy undertaken by policymakers of emerging economies in Africa can enhance the labor market to recover from the downturns recently experienced in these economies.