Emerging Market Economies Research Articles

Central Bank Digital Currency in an Emerging Market Economy: Case of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye

Central banks have historically been using traditional channels for communication and physical money for transactions, fulfilling the needs of previous millennia, while the evolution of technology, electronic devices, and needs in transactions necessitate the use of modern communication channels, such as X (formerly known as Twitter), as well as modern payment systems, such as central bank digital currencies (CBDC). Hence, this paper aims to unfold where the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), as an example of emerging markets, stands in informing the public about CBDC. To this end, it conducts an event study on the official X account of CBRT in English over 10.2020-12.2022 by utilizing Nvivo. The findings of the quantitative analysis of the tweets show that CBRT does not regard X as a primary communication channel and mainly shares links to publications from the official websites in X. Also, CBRT tends to adopt a ‘cold-turkey’ informative approach about CBDC with the public rather than ‘gradualism’. Consequently, CBRT should rigorously design a communication strategy that fulfills the needs of the modern economy and start addressing CBDC to raise awareness if a quick transition to digital currency is targeted.

Financial Stability in Emerging Market Economies

Financial Stability in Emerging Market Economies

Adapting to the COVID-19 crisis: corporate social responsibility in an emerging market economy

ABSTRACT Grounded in the theories of stakeholder and corporate social responsibility (CSR), the study investigates the role of businesses in responding to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in an emerging market economy such as Bangladesh. Employing a convenience sampling procedure, ten commercial banks were selected as the sample for the study, and the content analysis method was utilised for data analysis. After examining the annual reports of a sample of banks, the study reveals that they have implemented diverse health safety, consumer essential needs, and community development-oriented CSR policies to safeguard their core stakeholders, such as employees, customers, and communities, during the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh. This indicates that corporations, through CSR initiatives, can maintain a win-win relationship between business and society, even in a crisis period. Lastly, the researcher recorded implications and proposed directions for future research on CSR policies in similar critical times, albeit in different circumstances.

Capital Control Taxes in an Emerging Market Economy

Historically, Emerging Markets (EMs) that own foreign debt and exhibit a high degree of dollarization have demonstrated vulnerability to a range of both real and financial shocks. Governments often use a range of capital control measures, particularly in nations burdened with external debt, with the aim of mitigating sudden swings in both inflows and outflows of capital. These policies are implemented to lessen exchange rate volatility and prevent dollarization. This study employs second moments analysis, impulse response functions and the welfare analysis to investigate the impact of a tax policy that restricts international capital flows on several macroeconomic variables in an emerging economy. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is employed to examine the impact of the tax imposed on foreign borrowing on the economy, including both real shocks such as technology and growth, as well as financial shocks such as country risk premium. The findings of the study indicate that capital control taxes have a diminishing effect on the variability of significant macroeconomic variables, such as investment and consumption, when imposed at lower levels. Conversely, these taxes exhibit a stabilizing impact on the volatility of the trade balance-to-output ratio when implemented at higher levels. Moreover, quantitative evidence reveals that country risk premium shocks exert a substantial influence on variations in both the trade balance-to-output ratio and the level of investment, accounting for around 25% and 50% of the fluctuations, respectively. Finally, the existence of such a taxation enhances the intertemporal utility function at the steady state and reduces its volatility in the case of technology and growth shocks.

International Reserve Management and Firm Investment in Emerging Market Economies

International Reserve Management and Firm Investment in Emerging Market Economies

Uncertainty shocks and monetary policy rules in a small open economy

Abstract Post the great financial crisis (GFC) of 2008–2009, there has been a surge in the macroeconomics literature on aggregate uncertainty. Although the recent literature has recognized the adverse real effects of global uncertainty shocks in emerging market economies (EMEs), the role of monetary policy in offsetting these adverse effects and their link with the exchange rates is not explored in the literature. We find that the currently followed interest rate rules (IRRs) under a flexible inflation-targeting regime are ineffective in stabilizing the domestic economy during periods of high global uncertainty in the EMEs. Using a small open economy new Keynesian DSGE model with Epstein–Zin preferences and second-moment demand shocks, we compare and propose alternate monetary policy rules that significantly reduce welfare losses. We find that the best monetary policy rule in terms of welfare depends on the nature of shock that is, first-moment or second-moment shock.

Special Issue: Decarbonization and Sustainable Development in Emerging Market Economies

Special Issue: Decarbonization and Sustainable Development in Emerging Market Economies

Experimenting with Unconventional Monetary Policy: Quantitative Easing in Emerging Markets During Covid-19

The Covid-19 Global Health Pandemic introduced a number of economic challenges to countries around the world. Notably, most policymakers implemented greater fiscal spending and monetary stimulus. For the first time, 15 emerging market economies experimented quantitative easing. Most were not constrained by the zero-lower-bound condition, and the degree of financial depth, central bank independence, and central bank transparency varied significantly. This research yields three critical findings. First, emerging markets experienced declines in capital flows and depreciation pressure stemming from quantitative easing. Second, quantitative easing in advanced economies had a more sizable and significant effect than domestic policies. Finally, the degree of financial development and central bank independence are key drivers in how quantitative easing impacts exchange rates specifically. More developed financial systems and greater central bank independence correspond to dampening the effect of quantitative easing on exchange rates.

Understanding Idiosyncratic Risk and Economic Growth in ASEAN

This study examines the relationship between idiosyncratic risks, foreign direct investment (FDI), and economic growth in ASEAN countries using data from 2013 to 2022. Idiosyncratic risks refer to specific assets or individual sectors, distinct from systemic or market-wide risk. This study aims to determine whether idiosyncratic risks affect the ASEAN region's FDI flows and economic growth. The study uses structural equation modeling (SEM) analysis to analyze the ASEAN Statistical Database data. Regression weights are used to evaluate the relationship between idiosyncratic risks, FDI, inflation, SDG availability, and economic growth. The results indicate that although there is no significant direct relationship between idiosyncratic risk and FDI inflows, there is a significant positive correlation between idiosyncratic risk and economic growth. These findings have implications for policymakers and investors seeking to promote sustainable economic development in ASEAN countries. Understanding the dynamics of specific risks can inform strategies to attract FDI and stimulate economic growth. This study contributes to the theoretical basis of risk management and economic development in emerging market economies such as those in the ASEAN region.

Harnessing FinTech for Sustainable Finance in Developing Countries: An Integrated SWOT–Multi-Level Perspective Analysis of Mongolia

This research paper investigates the potential of FinTech solutions in promoting sustainable finance in Mongolia, an emerging market economy with a burgeoning FinTech landscape. This study explores how Mongolia leverages FinTech innovations to advance sustainable development goals. Utilizing secondary data sourced from Mongolian government agencies, global financial organizations, academic institutions, market research firms, and industry associations, we conducted an integrated SWOT-MLP analysis of Mongolia’s FinTech industry, which includes the FinTech business models, ecosystem, regulatory frameworks, traditional financial institutions, and stakeholders. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the opportunities and challenges facing Mongolia in integrating FinTech into its sustainable finance agenda, and SWOT-based strategies.

The Effect of the Fed Interest Rate Hikes on the Financial Crisis Evidence from Emerging Market Economices

The purpose of this paper is to systematically study the economic consequences of this policy adjustment by analysing in depth the five interest rate hike actions of the Federal Reserve and their chain reactions in emerging market economies, applying economic principles and methods. In particular, the central question of concern is whether the Fed's interest rate hiking policy constitutes an important trigger of the financial crisis in emerging markets. In order to shed light on this complex phenomenon in a comprehensive manner, this paper not only analyses in depth the macroeconomic logic behind the Fed's interest rate hike, but also explores its transmission mechanism in emerging market economies, as well as the economic vulnerability of these countries in the face of external shocks. The results of the study show that the collapse of emerging countries as a result of the Fed's interest rate hikes seems to be inevitable, but we can draw insights from it: actively promoting the reform of the international monetary system and supporting the inclusion of more types of currencies in the international trade and investment settlement system has become a common choice, including for some Western countries, as well as the need to continue to optimise the economic structure of the domestic economy and to strengthen the ability to manage and control the comprehensive risks.

Exploring the impact of green finance and technological innovation on green economic growth: Evidence from emerging market economies

AbstractThe sustainable future of emerging market economies (EMEs) lies within achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs), specifically SDG 8, which is linked with green economic growth (GEG) and its determinants, such as green finance (GF) and technological innovation (TI), along with some control variables. However, the current literature has insufficiently addressed these determinants in the context of emerging and developing economies. In this regard, this study deployed the most effective and advanced techniques like cross‐sectional auto‐regressive distributed lags, augmented mean group, and common correlated effects mean group to handle the issues of endogeneity, cross‐sectional dependence, and heterogeneity, which is not an easy task for conventional methods used in existing studies. This study has compiled a panel data set spanning from 2000 to 2019, across 13 EMEs. The main outcomes revealed that GF, TI, and human capital (HC) help in fostering significant GEG, whereas financial development (FD) and economic globalization (ECOGLB) fail. The study underscores the need for policymakers to focus on the promotion of diffusion of GF and enhancement of TI and HC while regulating the FD and ECOGLB process to steer emerging nations toward sustainable development.

Nexus between boardroom independence and firm financial performance: evidence from South Asian emerging market

This study empirically investigates the linkage between boardroom independence and the financial performance of non-financial firms in an emerging market featured by family-controlled businesses and concentrated ownership. The relationship is tested in a sample of 152 non-financial firms listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange over a period from 2003 to 2018. Firms’ financial performance is measured through return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), market-to-book ratio (MBR), and Tobin’s Q (TQ), while boardroom independence is measured through the proportion of non-executive directors on the corporate board. Using the dynamic GMM approach to address the possibility of endogeneity, it was found that boardroom independence is significantly negatively related to the financial performance of the sample firms. This negative impact is due to the reason of close ties of outside independent directors (non-executive directors) with dominant shareholders and management in personal, financial, and social terms. A significant negative influence of the board size and CEO duality on firms’ financial performance was also observed. The present study will add to the existing literature on corporate governance and firm financial performance using firm-level manually collected data. Further, our findings will also help the policymakers by providing empirical insights for strengthening corporate governance mechanisms in emerging market economies, specifically in the context of Pakistan.

Climate Risks and Stock Market Volatility over a Century in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of South Africa

Because climate change broadcasts a large aggregate risk to the overall macroeconomy and the global financial system, we investigate how a temperature anomaly and/or its volatility affect the accuracy of forecasts of stock return volatility. To this end, we do not apply only the classical GARCH and GARCHX models, but rather we apply newly proposed model-free prediction methods, and use GARCH-NoVaS and GARCHX-NoVaS models to compute volatility predictions. These two models are based on a normalizing and variance-stabilizing transformation (NoVaS transformation) and are guided by a so-called model-free prediction principle. Applying the new models to data for South Africa, we find that climate-related information is helpful in forecasting stock return volatility. Moreover, the novel model-free prediction method can incorporate such exogenous information better than the classical GARCH approach, as revealed by the the squared prediction errors. More importantly, the forecast comparison test reveals that the advantage of applying exogenous information related to climate risks in prediction of the South African stock return volatility is significant over a century of monthly data (February 1910–February 2023). Our findings have important implications for academics, investors, and policymakers.

Exploring Inflation Dynamics with the Phillips Curve in Türkiye: Evidence from the Markov Regime Switching Model

Unlike in many advanced and emerging market economies, inflation was already a problem for the Turkish economy before the COVID-19 pandemic. During the 1990s, Türkiye experienced severe inflation, which reached three digits in some months. Although inflation was reduced to single digits in the 2000s through a successful disinflation program under an implicit inflation targeting framework with a flexible exchange rate regime, price stability became a problem again after the global financial crisis. Inflation gradually increased during the 2010s and became out of control after late 2021. This study aims to explore inflation dynamics in Türkiye using the Phillips curve framework for different inflation environments. To this end, the Phillips curve equation, augmented with the exchange rate and oil prices, is estimated using the Markov regime switching model between January 2006 and September 2023. Two regimes are identified in the sample, namely low- and high-inflation regimes. According to the estimation results, the Phillips curve is invalid in both regimes. The unemployment gap is statistically insignificant despite its negative impact on current inflation. The increasing coefficient of backward inflation in the high regime reflects the resurgent indexation behavior, which was dominant before inflation targeting was introduced in Türkiye. The positive impact of oil prices is only statistically significant in the low regime. While an increase in the exchange rate significantly raises inflation in both regimes, the effect is greater in the high-inflation regime. These empirical findings indicate that the primary issues for controlling inflation in Türkiye are inflation inertia and exchange rate stability.

The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting

It is widely accepted that episodes of social unrest, conflict, political tensions and policy uncertainty affect the economy. Nevertheless, the real-time dimension of such relationships is less studied, and it remains unclear how to incorporate them in a forecasting framework. This can be partly explained by a certain divide between the economic and political science contributions in this area, as well as the traditional lack of availability of timely high-frequency indicators measuring such phenomena. The latter constraint, though, is becoming less of a limiting factor through the production of text-based indicators. In this paper we assemble a dataset of such monthly measures of what we call “institutional instability”, for three representative emerging market economies: Brazil, Colombia and Mexico. We then forecast quarterly GDP by adding these new variables to a standard macro-forecasting model using different methods. Our results strongly suggest that capturing institutional instability above a broad set of standard high-frequency indicators is useful when forecasting quarterly GDP. We also analyse relative strengths and weaknesses of the approach.

The macroeconomic effects of public debt booms during recessions - evidence from advanced and emerging market economies

ABSTRACT Public debt is often widely used during economic recessions to provide additional financial support for expansionary fiscal expenditures. Based on the macroeconomic data of 54 advanced and emerging market economies, this paper reveals that public debt booms during recessions have a nonlinear impact on economic growth. Initially, the impact appears weakly positive because additional debt financing supports a more expansionary fiscal policy. However, as the debt escalation leads to fiscal imbalances, fiscal consolidation becomes an involuntary endeavour, and its impact on economic growth turns negative subsequently. Moreover, this effect is particularly severe for emerging market economies and heavily indebted economies.

Capital flow reversals and currency crises: Do capital flow types matter?

AbstractWe analyze how reversals of several types of capital flows impact currency crises in emerging market and developing economies. Estimates of logit models show that reversals of (equity and debt) portfolio flows significantly increase the likelihood of currency crises in emerging market economies. In developing economies, reversals of portfolio debt flows and banking flows have a significant positive impact on currency crises. Finally, our results suggest that countries with mature financial systems and fixed exchange rate regimes are less likely to experience a currency crisis after a capital flow shock. The mediating role of capital account liberalization varies by country type.

A framework for investigating new firm entry: The (limited) overlap between informal-formal and necessity-opportunity entrepreneurship

We analyse entrepreneurial entry along the dimensions of informal-formal and necessity-opportunity entrepreneurship, distinguishing between them yet considering them jointly. While the dominant view in the literature conflates necessity with informal entry, and opportunity with formal entry, we hypothesise that informal entrepreneurship may be attractive to higher-income individuals as a testing ground for entrepreneurial ideas. We also explain why higher-income individuals may undertake necessity entrepreneurship. We utilise individual Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) data from Chile (2019–2021), which identifies informal-formal and necessity-opportunity entrepreneurial entry modes, to test hypotheses on the role of individuals´ income in the four types of entrepreneurial entry. We also consider changes in entrepreneurial entry during a crisis and a non-crisis periods. Our results confirm that the patterns in the data are consistent with hypotheses derived from our proposed theoretical framework. Executive summaryEmerging markets economies have very large informal sectors, and their entrepreneurial entry is often motivated by economic necessity rather than by business opportunity. But neither informal nor necessity entrepreneurship are usually expected to generate the positive benefits for growth and development predicted for formal and opportunity entrepreneurship. We argue that the dominant stream in the literature actually conflates informal and necessity entrepreneurship, both of which have been associated with low human and financial capital and productivity. We propose that the appropriate typology is more complex than this because there are examples of successful and dynamic informal firms. This leads us to identify four categories of entrepreneurial entry: informal-necessity (Type 1), formal-opportunity (Type 2), informal-opportunity (Type 3), and formal-necessity (Type 4). While necessity entrepreneurship has typically been associated with low-income individuals, we propose that formal-necessity entrepreneurship may be an entry path for both low- and high-income individuals, though for different reasons. Informal opportunity entry may likewise be an option for people with low-income as well as high-income.We therefore seek to disentangle the analysis of opportunity-necessity and of formal-informal entry and to demonstrate that the two less explored entry modes - informal-opportunity, and formal-necessity - are of considerable theoretical and practical significance in emerging economies. We test our framework in the emerging market economy setting of Chile, one of the more prosperous and open economies in Latin America. We use Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) data which uniquely for Chile allow us to distinguish between individuals along both the formal-informal and the necessity-opportunity dimensions. On this basis, we distinguish empirically between these four categories of entrepreneurial entry and explain how higher-income individuals may use informal-opportunity entrepreneurial entry as a “seed bed” to test their new business ideas. At the same time, we show that necessity entrepreneurship may be attractive to both lower- and higher-income individuals.We also show that the interplay between individuals´ income groups and four entrepreneurial entry modes is stable over “normal times” versus “crisis periods”. We observe that in response to a crisis, individuals with lower-incomes are likely to engage more in informal-necessity entrepreneurship while opportunity-informal entry by higher-income individuals will decline. These changes represent a more complex adjustment pattern than has been identified for developed economies, where entrepreneurial activity has been found to be countercyclical. Thus, in emerging markets, informal-necessity entrepreneurship plays a stabilizing role for those individuals with a more marginal position in the labor market during the crisis. In contrast, for those individuals who have access to higher household income, all forms of entrepreneurship become a less attractive option. We interpret this as indicating that these individuals have the option to wait for higher return opportunities to re-emerge. This is one of the first papers to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on entrepreneurship in an emerging market economy.

Is Agricultural Production Responsible for Environmental Degradation in India? Implications for Sustainability Based on Panel Data Analysis

The study aims to investigate the impact of agricultural production on environmental degradation in the case of India, an emerging market economy, based on time series data from 1990 to 2020. Methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have been used as indicators of degradation. Autoregressive distributive lag bound tests examine the long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. To investigate the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) between agricultural production and CH4, N2O, and CO2, we used a fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) technique, and the robustness of the results of FMOLS were checked by dynamic ordinary least squares estimators. We also used Granger causality to check for unidirectional and bidirectional causalities. Results indicate an inverted U-shaped relationship in the case of both CH4 and N2O emission, thus confirming the EKC hypothesis. The relationship of CO2 emission with agricultural production does not verify the EKC hypothesis, and we find a U-shaped relation in the long-run. Lastly, policy measures have been suggested to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural activities that may help attain a more sustainable economy. JEL Classification Q1, Q22, Q23, Q53, C33