Capping Inversion Research Articles

Effect of conventionally neutral boundary layer height on turbine performance and wake mixing in offshore windfarms

In this study, we investigate the effect of conventionally neutral boundary layer height and capping inversion strength on wind farm performance. An aeroelastic multibody solver coupled with a pseudo-spectral large eddy simulation code is used to investigate the structural and aerodynamic output of wind turbines in 4 different inflow types. Farm layouts comprising of turbines in both aligned and staggered arrangements are studied. It is found that the shallower boundary layers with strong capping inversions are characterized by oscillatory structures in turbine wakes, leading to increased structural damage in downstream wind turbines due to fatigue. The power output is also observed to decrease due to poorer wake mixing.

Climatology of Severe Local Storm Environments and Synoptic-Scale Features over North America in ERA5 Reanalysis and CAM6 Simulation

AbstractSevere local storm (SLS) activity is known to occur within specific thermodynamic and kinematic environments. These environments are commonly associated with key synoptic-scale features—including southerly Great Plains low-level jets, drylines, elevated mixed layers, and extratropical cyclones—that link the large-scale climate to SLS environments. This work analyzes spatiotemporal distributions of both extreme values of SLS environmental parameters and synoptic-scale features in the ERA5 reanalysis and in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), historical simulation during 1980–2014 over North America. Compared to radiosondes, ERA5 successfully reproduces SLS environments, with strong spatiotemporal correlations and low biases, especially over the Great Plains. Both ERA5 and CAM6 reproduce the climatology of SLS environments over the central United States as well as its strong seasonal and diurnal cycles. ERA5 and CAM6 also reproduce the climatological occurrence of the synoptic-scale features, with the distribution pattern similar to that of SLS environments. Compared to ERA5, CAM6 exhibits a high bias in convective available potential energy over the eastern United States primarily due to a high bias in surface moisture and, to a lesser extent, storm-relative helicity due to enhanced low-level winds. Composite analysis indicates consistent synoptic anomaly patterns favorable for significant SLS environments over much of the eastern half of the United States in both ERA5 and CAM6, though the pattern differs for the southeastern United States. Overall, our results indicate that both ERA5 and CAM6 are capable of reproducing SLS environments as well as the synoptic-scale features and transient events that generate them.

Influence of Lead width on the Turbulent Flow Over Sea Ice Leads: Modeling and Parametrization

AbstractA new turbulence parametrization is developed for a non‐eddy‐resolving microscale model to study the effects of leads (elongated open‐water channels in sea ice) of different width on the polar atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). Lead‐dominated sea ice regions are characterized by large horizontal inhomogeneities of the surface temperature causing strong convection. Therefore, the new parametrization is based on a previous formulation where inhomogeneous conditions of dry convection over leads and nonlocal effects on heat fluxes had already been taken into account for a fixed lead width. A nonlocal lead width dependent approach is applied now for both heat fluxes and momentum fluxes in the convective region. Microscale model results obtained with the new, the previous nonlocal, and a local parametrization are shown, where 10 idealized cases of a lead‐perpendicular, near‐neutral ABL‐flow below a strong capping inversion are considered. Furthermore, time‐averaged large eddy simulation (LES) results of those cases are considered for analyzing the integrated effects of the dry convection on ABL characteristics. Microscale model results obtained with the new nonlocal parametrization agree well with the LES for variable lead widths and different atmospheric forcing although there is a room for further improvement. Furthermore, several features obtained with a local closure clearly disagree with LES. Thus, the microscale study also points to difficulties that might occur in mesoscale studies over regions where leads dominate the flow regime when local closures are applied.

Climate trends in the Cape Town area, South Africa

Climatic conditions near Cape Town, South Africa (34°S, 19°E) are analysed for historical trends in station measurements in the 20th century and in modern satellite-blended datasets. Despite the variety of datasets and record lengths, all show a steady drying trend. Faster rates of warming, 0.1°C∙yr-1, are found in land surface temperatures during the period 2000–2017. Drying trends are most acute to the northwest of the Hottentots Holland mountains. Hydrology station measurements in the Upper Berg River catchment since 1956 reveal a decline in streamflow of −0.012 m3∙s-1∙month-1, and an upward slope in potential evaporation of +0.020 W∙m-2∙month-1. Rainfall has declined most in May and September, indicating a shorter winter wet season. Features supporting the drying trend include an increase of easterly winds and low-level subsidence during summer. The clockwise circulation trend around Cape Town entrains dry air from the Karoo interior and the south coast upwelling zone, leading to negative sensible heat flux, a capping inversion and diminished orographic rainfall.

Sounding Characteristics that Yield Significant Convective Inhibition Errors due to Ascent Rate and Sensor Response of In Situ Profiling Systems

AbstractAccurate measurements of the convective inhibition (CIN) associated with capping inversions are critical to forecasts of deep convection initiation. The goal of this work is to determine the sounding characteristics most vulnerable to CIN errors arising from hysteresis associated with sensor response and ascent rate of profiling systems. This examination uses 5058 steady-state analytic soundings prescribed using three free parameters that control inversion depth, static stability, and moisture content. A theoretical well-aspirated first-order sensor mounted on a platform that does not disturb its environment is “flown” in these soundings. Sounding characteristics that result in the largest relative CIN errors are also the characteristics that result in the smallest CIN. Because they are more likely to support deep convection initiation, it is particularly critical that environments with small CIN are represented accurately. The relationship between relative CIN error and CIN exists because sounding characteristics that contribute to large CIN do not proportionally increase the CIN error. Analysis also considers CIN intervals with (operationally important) CIN on the threshold between environments that will and will not support deep convection initiation. For these soundings, CIN error is found to be largest for deep, dry inversions characterized by small static stability.

A Demonstration of Modern Geostationary and Polar-Orbiting Satellite Products for the Identification and Tracking of Elevated Mixed Layers

The elevated mixed layer (EML) can be an important aspect for severe thunderstorm forecasting. Because its thermodynamic characteristics vary as it moves eastward, tracking the EML is a crucial part of the forecasting process, something that previously has been quite challenging owing to the limited spatial and temporal resolution of observed soundings and numerical weather prediction (NWP) output. New satellite capabilities allow for improved monitoring/tracking of the EML. These include the 7.34-µm band on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series, as well as microwave instruments on polar-orbiting satellites used in the advected layer precipitable water product. Herein it is demonstrated—using several case studies—how using a combination of these products, in tandem with sounding data and NWP output, allows the forecaster to efficiently monitor the EML at greater spatial and temporal resolutions.

Wave Disturbances and Their Role in the Maintenance, Structure, and Evolution of a Mesoscale Convection System

AbstractThis study investigates a nocturnal mesoscale convective system (MCS) observed during the Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) field campaign. A series of wavelike features were observed ahead of this MCS with extensive convective initiation (CI) taking place in the wake of one of these disturbances. Simulations with the WRF-ARW Model were utilized to understand the dynamics of these disturbances and their impact on the MCS. In these simulations, an “elevated bore” formed within an inversion layer aloft in response to the layer being lifted by air flowing up and over the cold pool. As the bore propagated ahead of the MCS, the lifting created an environment more conducive to deep convection allowing the MCS to discretely propagate due to CI in the bore’s wake. The Scorer parameter was somewhat favorable for trapping of this wave energy, although aspects of the environment evolved to be consistent with the expectations for an n = 2 mode deep tropospheric gravity wave. A bore within an inversion layer aloft is reminiscent of disturbances predicted by two-layer hydraulic theory, contrasting with recent studies that suggest bores are frequently initiated by the interaction between the flow within stable nocturnal boundary layer and convectively generated cold pools. Idealized simulations that expand upon this two-layer approach with orography and a well-mixed layer below the inversion suggest that elevated bores provide a possible mechanism for daytime squall lines to remove the capping inversion often found over the Great Plains, particularly in synoptically disturbed environments where vertical shear could create a favorable trapping of wave energy.

Advected Air Mass Reservoirs in the Downwind of Mountains and Their Roles in Overrunning Boundary Layer Depths Over the Plains

AbstractAtmospheric boundary layer depths (BLDs) over continental sites have long been meticulously characterized. However, a downwind‐footprint concept for BLDs over plains under the impact of seasonally and spatially changing horizontal advection of BLDs off elevated terrains has remained unexplored. For the first time, we provide observational evidence of the impact of mountains on regional BLDs using 25‐years (1991–2015) of rawinsonde‐retrieved afternoon BLDs over 22 sites located in the mountains' (Rockies and Appalachians) downstream. Results suggest that mountain‐advected air mass, elevated terrains, and wind play a significant role in modulating BLD variability “miles away” from terrains. We found significant BLD contrasts over the plains (400–1,500 m) under mountain‐advected versus flatland‐advected flows pertaining to elevated mixed layers off the mountain ranges. The BLD contrasts were higher in the downwind of Rockies than the Appalachians, and higher BLD contrasts were observed in spring and summer (900–1,500 m) than in fall and winter (100–500 m). These findings will help build advanced parameterizations in models where BLD simulations around complex terrain still remain a hurdle.

A Case Study of the Transport/Transformation of Air Pollutants Over the Yellow Sea During the MAPS 2015 Campaign

AbstractAs a case study, the fate of pollutants subjected to long‐range transport over northeast Asia was investigated. These pollutants originated as emitted particulate pollutants from Chinese source area, moved across the Yellow Sea (YS), and entered the Korean Peninsula (KP) during the Megacity Air Pollution Studies Seoul (MAPS‐Seoul) 2015 aircraft field campaign. The MAPS‐Seoul campaign, designed as a precampaign of the Korea‐United States Air Quality (KORUS‐AQ) campaign, was performed to diagnose the air quality around the KP and YS. Of particular interest during the campaign period was the existence of the elevated mixed layer (EML), the lofted layer of highly concentrated fine aerosols, observed in the marine atmosphere in and around the western coast of the KP. The pollutants within EML identified with the bulk Richardson number of 1.2–6.1, transported longer toward the downwind area than within marine boundary layer. As a result, pollutants emitted from Chinese source areas can cross the YS due to the EML and influence the surface air quality on downstream areas, where the inland boundary layer is sufficiently developed. We also analyzed the vertical distribution of the simulated sulfur dioxide (SO2) and sulfate (SO42−) in the EML over China‐YS‐KP belt area and found that the concentration of SO4−2 increases through a hygroscopic conversion process as the gas phase precursors move across the YS in an environment full of water vapor. Therefore, the EML makes the transport of the Chinese plume possible, as it passes over the marine boundary layer, entering downwind area over northeast Asia.

A Composite Perspective on Bore Passages during the PECAN Campaign

AbstractAtmospheric bores have been shown to have a role in the initiation and maintenance of elevated convection. Previous observational studies of bores have been case studies of more notable events. However, this creates a selection bias toward extraordinary cases, while discussions of the differences between bores that favor convective initiation and maintenance and bores that do not are lacking from the literature. This study attempts to fill that gap by analyzing a high-temporal-resolution thermodynamic profile composite of eight bores observed by multiple platforms during the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) campaign in order to assess the impact of bores on the environment. The time–height cross section of the potential temperature composite displays quasi-permanent parcel displacements up to 900 m with the bore passage. Low-level lifting is shown to weaken the capping inversion and reduce convective inhibition (CIN) and the level of free convection (LFC). Additionally, low-level water vapor increases by about 1 g kg−1 in the composite mean. By assessing variability across the eight cases, it is shown that increases in low-level water vapor result in increases to convective available potential energy (CAPE), while drying results in decreased CAPE. Most cases resulted in decreased CIN and LFC height with the bore passage, but only some cases resulted in increased CAPE. This suggests that bores will increase the potential for convective initiation, but future research should be directed toward better understanding cases that result in increased CAPE as those are the types of bores that will increase severity of convection.

Simulation of Mesoscale Cellular Convection in Marine Stratocumulus: 2. Nondrizzling Conditions

AbstractThis is the second of two large‐eddy simulation studies on the mechanisms of mesoscale cellular organization in drizzling (open cells) and nondrizzling marine stratocumulus (closed cells). This study uses a hard nudging approach which maintains fixed horizontal‐mean temperature and humidity profiles for a well‐mixed boundary layer with a constant boundary layer depth. For the case studied, closed cells develop and broaden by 32 hr to an aspect ratio of 25. Simulations show that the closed‐cell mesoscale cellular convection is driven by positive feedback from cloud‐induced mesoscale perturbations of longwave radiative cooling. A conceptual model for closed‐cell stratocumulus as a mesoscale wavelength hydrodynamic instability in which mesoscale moist and dry anomalies spontaneously grow is presented. In simulations in which long‐wavelength sinusoidal moisture anomalies are initially imposed, these anomalies evolve into amplifying closed cells. The cell structure is visualized with a compositing approach based on sorting grid columns by their mesoscale‐smoothed total water path. A thermally direct mesoscale circulation pattern develops in the interior of the boundary layer with buoyant mesoscale updrafts, thicker cloud, and a slightly higher capping inversion in the moister columns. There is a mesoscale flow of above‐inversion air down the slightly sloping capping inversion from the moist to the dry regions, reinforced by cloud top radiative cooling. This strengthens the mesoscale anomalies by preferentially cooling and drying the already dry regions. The sloping inversion flow is not driven as efficiently if the radiative cooling is artificially horizontally homogenized, partly disrupting this positive feedback and the resulting closed‐cell development.

The Influence of Vertical Advection Discretization in the WRF-ARW Model on Capping Inversion Representation in Warm-Season, Thunderstorm-Supporting Environments

Abstract Previous studies have suggested that the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) Model is unable, in its default configuration, to adequately resolve the capping inversions that are commonly found in the warm-season, thunderstorm-supporting environments of the central United States. Since capping inversions typically form in environments of synoptic-scale subsidence, this study tests the hypothesis that this degradation results, in part, from implicit numerical damping of shorter-wavelength features associated with the model-default third-order-accurate vertical advection finite-differencing scheme. To aid in testing this hypothesis, two short-range, deterministic, convection-allowing model forecasts, one using the default third-order-accurate vertical advection finite-differencing scheme and another using a fourth-order-accurate differencing scheme (which lacks implicit damping but is numerically dispersive), are conducted for 25 days during the 2017 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Model-derived vertical profiles at lead times of 11 and 23 h are validated against available rawinsonde observations released in regions located in the Storm Prediction Center’s 0600 UTC day 1 convection outlook’s “general thunderstorm” forecast area. The fourth-order-accurate vertical advection finite-differencing scheme is shown to not result in statistically significant improvements to model-forecast capping inversions or, more generally, the vertical thermodynamic profile in the lower troposphere. Instead, the fourth-order-accurate differencing scheme primarily impacts the representation of longer-wavelength features already reasonably well resolved by the model. The analysis does, however, provide quantitative evidence over a large sample that, on average, the WRF-ARW model forecasts capping inversions that are too weak, with negative buoyancy spread out over too deep of a vertical layer, compared to observations.

A Case Study of Tsukuba Tornado in Japan on 6 May 2012

This study conducted synoptic and mesoscale analyses to understand the cause of Japan Tsukuba tornado development, which occurred at 0340 UTC 6 May 2012. Prior to the tornado occurrence, there was a circular jet stream over Japan, and the surface was moist due to overnight precipitation. The circular jet stream brought cold and dry air to the upper-level atmosphere which let strong solar radiation heat the ground with clearing of sky cover. A tornadic supercell developed in the area of potentially unstable atmosphere. Sounding data at Tateno showed a capping inversion at 900 hPa at 0000 UTC 6 May. Strong insolation in early morning hours and removal of the inversion instigated vigorous updraft with rotation due to vertical shear in the upper-level atmosphere. This caused multiple tornadoes to occur from 0220 to 0340 UTC 6 May 2012. When comparing Tateno’s climatological temperature and dew-point temperature profile on the day of event, the mid-level atmosphere was moister than typical sounding in the region. This study showed that tornado development in Tsukuba was caused by a combination of (a) topography and potential vorticity anomaly, which increased vorticity over the Kanto Plain; (b) vertical shear, which produced horizontal vortex line; and c) thermal instability, which triggered supercell and tilted the vortex line in the vertical.

On the simulation of thick non-neutral boundary layers for urban studies in a wind tunnel

Stable and convective boundary layers over a very rough surface have been studied in a thermally-stratified wind tunnel. Artificial thickening by means of spires was used to accelerate the formation of a sufficiently deep boundary layer, suitable for urban-like boundary layer flow and dispersion studies. For the stable boundary layer, the methodology presented in Hancock and Hayden (2018) for low-roughness offshore surface conditions has been successfully applied to cases with higher-roughness. Different levels of stratification and roughness produced modifications in the turbulence profiles of the lower half of the boundary layer, but little or no change in the region above. Data for a stronger stability case suggested that the employed spires may not be suitable to simulate such extreme condition, though further studies are needed. The results were in reasonably good agreement with field measurements. For the convective boundary layer, great attention was given to the flow uniformity inside the test section. The selection of a non-uniform inlet temperature profile was in this case found not as determinant as for the stable boundary layer to improve the longitudinal uniformity, while the application of a calibrated capping inversion considerably improved the lateral uniformity. The non-dimensional vertical profiles of turbulent quantities and heat fluxes, did not seem to be influenced by roughness.

Characteristics of aerosol vertical profiles in Tsukuba, Japan, and their impacts on the evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer

Abstract. Vertical profiles of the aerosol physical and optical properties, with a focus on seasonal means and on transport events, were investigated in Tsukuba, Japan, by a synergistic remote sensing method that uses lidar and sky radiometer data. The retrieved aerosol vertical profiles of the springtime mean and five transport events were input to our developed one-dimensional atmospheric model, and the impacts of the aerosol vertical profiles on the evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) were studied by numerical sensitivity experiments. The characteristics of the aerosol vertical profiles in Tsukuba are as follows: (1) the retrieval results in the spring showed that aerosol optical thickness at 532 nm in the free atmosphere (FA) was 0.13, greater than 0.08 in the ABL owing to the frequent occurrence of transported aerosols in the FA. In other seasons, optical thickness in the FA was almost the same as that in the ABL. (2) The aerosol optical and physical properties in the ABL showed a dependency on the extinction coefficient. With an increase in the extinction coefficient from 0.00 to 0.24 km−1, the Ångström exponent increased from 0.0 to 2.0, the single-scattering albedo increased from 0.87 to 0.99, and the asymmetry factor decreased from 0.75 to 0.50. (3) The large variability in the physical and optical properties of aerosols in the FA were attributed to transport events, during which the transported aerosols consisted of varying amounts of dust and smoke particles depending on where they originated (China, Mongolia, or Russia). The results of the numerical sensitivity experiments using the aerosol vertical profiles of the springtime mean and five transport events in the FA are as follows: (1) numerical sensitivity experiments based on simulations conducted with and without aerosols showed that aerosols caused the net downward radiation and the sensible and latent heat fluxes at the surface to decrease. The decrease in temperature in the ABL (−0.2 to −0.6 K) and the direct heating of aerosols in the FA (0.0 to 0.4 K) strengthened the capping inversion around the top of the ABL. Consequently, the ABL height was decreased by 133 to 208 m in simulations with aerosols compared to simulations without aerosols. (2) We also conducted simulations in which all aerosols were compressed into the ABL but in which the columnar properties were the same and compared with the simulation results for uncompressed aerosol profiles. The results showed that the reductions in net downward radiation and in sensible and latent heat fluxes were the same in both types of simulations. However, the capping inversion in the simulations with compression was weakened owing to aerosol direct heating in the ABL and the lack of direct heating in the FA. This resulted in an increase in the ABL height, compared with that in the simulations without compression. (3) The dependencies of the 2 m temperature and ABL height on the optical thickness and Ångström exponent in the FA were investigated using the results of the numerical sensitivity tests. The 2 m temperature and ABL height was decreased with an increase in the optical thickness, and their reduction rates increase with a decrease in the Ångström exponent because the optical thickness in the near-infrared wavelength region was large when the Ångström exponent was small. However, there was a case in which the Ångström exponent was large but the decrease in the ABL height was the largest of all the simulation results. In this case, the strong capping inversion due to the large extinction coefficient around the top of the ABL was an import factor. These results suggest that the vertical profiles of the aerosol physical and optical properties, and the resulting direct heating has important effects on the ABL evolution.

Elevated Mixed Layers and Associated Severe Thunderstorm Environments in South and North America

Abstract This study presents a climatological and composite analysis of elevated mixed layers (EMLs) in South and North America derived from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. The EMLs are identified based on objective criteria applied to the reanalysis data. Composite analyses of synoptic-scale conditions and severe weather parameters associated with spring EML cases are presented. EMLs are more frequent immediately to the east of the Andes and the Rockies. The North American EMLs form by surface heating over the higher terrain of the Rockies, with peak frequency occurring in spring and summer. EMLs in South America are generated by differential temperature advection due to ageostrophic circulations east of the Andes, as indicated by the temperature lapse rate tendency equation, which relates to the higher frequency of EMLs during the cold season in South America. EMLs over North America are about 100 hPa lower than over South America due to the lower height of the Rockies in comparison to the Andes. The synoptic conditions associated with EMLs in South and North America are characterized by an upper-level trough upstream and low-level moisture flux convergence due to poleward-directed flow, favoring synoptic-scale ascent poleward of the EML location, where the convective inhibition is relatively low. When EMLs occur, higher surface-based convective available potential energy and low-level storm-relative helicity, in association with lower lifting condensation level heights observed in North America, indicate that surface-based supercell storms and tornadoes are more likely to occur on this continent in comparison with South America, corroborating observations.

The Record Los Angeles Heat Event of September 2010: 1. Synoptic‐Scale‐Meso‐β‐Scale Analyses of Interactive Planetary Wave Breaking, Terrain‐ and Coastal‐Induced Circulations

AbstractOn 27 September 2010 the Los Angeles Civic Center reached its all‐time record maximum temperature of 45°C before 1330 local daylight time with several other regional stations observing all‐time record breaking heat early in that afternoon. This record event is associated with a general circulation pattern predisposed to hemispheric wave breaking. Three days before the event, wave breaking organizes complex terrain‐ and coastal‐induced processes that lead to isentropic surface folding into the Los Angeles Basin. The first wave break occurs over the western two thirds of North America leading to trough elongation across the southwestern U.S. Collocated with this trough is an isentropic potential vorticity filament that is the locus of a thermally indirect circulation central to warming and associated thickness increases and ridging westward across the Great Basin. In response to this circulation, two subsynoptic wave breaks are triggered along the Pacific coast. The isentropic potential vorticity filament is coupled to the breaking waves and the interaction produces a subsynoptic low‐pressure center and a deep vortex aloft over the southeastern California desert. This coupling leads to advection of an elevated mixed layer over Point Conception the night before the record‐breaking heat that creates a coastally trapped low‐pressure area southwest of Los Angeles. The two low‐pressure centers create a low‐level pressure gradient and east‐southeasterly jet directed offshore over the Los Angeles Basin by sunrise on 27 September. This allows the advection of low‐level warm air from the inland terrain toward the coastally trapped disturbance and descending circulation resulting in record heating.

A 1D Theoretical Analysis of Northerly Low-Level Jets over the Great Plains

Abstract The forcing of northerly low-level jets over the eastward-sloped terrain of the U.S. Great Plains was studied using a one-dimensional (1D) nonstationary analytical model based on the Boussinesq-approximated equations of motion and thermal energy. For northerly low-level jets, the forcing from diurnal changes in surface heating of the sloped terrain (Holton mechanism) is out of phase with the nocturnal inertial oscillation resulting from the cessation of turbulent mixing at sunset (Blackadar mechanism), which results in weaker northerly nocturnal low-level jets when compared to southerly nocturnal low-levels jets with the same-magnitude background pressure gradient forcing. Because of the Blackadar and Holton mechanisms acting out of phase, nocturnal northerly low-level jets cannot solely explain the northerly low-level jet maximum over the Great Plains found in climatological studies. It is shown that negative buoyancy values over the eastward-sloped terrain enhance the low-level northerly geostrophic wind, which can cause low-level jetlike wind profiles that do not necessarily depend on the diurnal cycle. However, nocturnal northerly low-level jets primarily caused by an inertial oscillation still occur when daytime mixing is strong and buoyancy is small at sunset. These conditions are possible when strong capping inversions are present in the daytime convective boundary layer. The occurrence of both types of northerly low-level jets, those caused by negative buoyancy values over the sloped terrain and those driven by an inertial oscillation, better explains the findings of previous low-level jet climatologies.

Interannual Variability in Low Stratiform Cloud Amount over the Summertime North Pacific in Terms of Cloud Types

Using long-term (1958–2008) ship-based cloud observations and reanalysis data, interannual variability in the low stratiform cloud (LSC) amount of stratocumulus (Sc), stratus (St), and sky-obscuring fog (FOG) is examined over the summertime North Pacific. The correlation between the LSC amount and the estimated inversion strength is positive but relatively weak, compared with the well-known linear relationship for their seasonal variabilities. This reflects the regional contrast: the correlations are stronger in the southeastern North Pacific (SE NP) and weaker in the northwestern North Pacific (NW NP). Regarding the LSC types, variations in Sc amount are large over the SE NP and correlated with the inferred capping inversion strength. Variations in FOG amount are large over the NW NP and correlated with the inferred surface-based inversion strength. The compensating variations between the Sc and FOG amounts result in an apparent small variation in the total LSC amount in this region. Variations in St amount are small over the whole North Pacific. The increase in the Sc amount over the SE NP is linked to the local cold sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies with a positive feedback, whereas the increase in the FOG amount over the NW NP is related to warm moist advection across the SST front caused by the anticyclonic sea level pressure anomalies over the north-central North Pacific. The former is associated with an El Niño in the preceding winter and the latter with a wavelike teleconnection pattern along the summertime Asian jet.

The Influence of PBL Parameterization on the Practical Predictability of Convection Initiation during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX)

Abstract This study evaluates the influence of planetary boundary layer parameterization on short-range (0–15 h) convection initiation (CI) forecasts within convection-allowing ensembles that utilize subsynoptic-scale observations collected during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment. Three cases, 19–20 May, 31 May–1 June, and 8–9 June 2013, are considered, each characterized by a different large-scale flow pattern. An object-based method is used to verify and analyze CI forecasts. Local mixing parameterizations have, relative to nonlocal mixing parameterizations, higher probabilities of detection but also higher false alarm ratios, such that the ensemble mean forecast skill only subtly varied between parameterizations considered. Temporal error distributions associated with matched events are approximately normal around a zero mean, suggesting little systematic timing bias. Spatial error distributions are skewed, with average mean (median) distance errors of approximately 44 km (28 km). Matched event cumulative distribution functions suggest limited forecast skill increases beyond temporal and spatial thresholds of 1 h and 100 km, respectively. Forecast skill variation is greatest between cases with smaller variation between PBL parameterizations or between individual ensemble members for a given case, implying greatest control on CI forecast skill by larger-scale features than PBL parameterization. In agreement with previous studies, local mixing parameterizations tend to produce simulated boundary layers that are too shallow, cool, and moist, while nonlocal mixing parameterizations tend to be deeper, warmer, and drier. Forecasts poorly resolve strong capping inversions across all parameterizations, which is hypothesized to result primarily from implicit numerical diffusion associated with the default finite-differencing formulation for vertical advection used herein.