Ongoing brain activity constitutes a structuring context for stimulus processing and has been shown to predict both neural and behavioural responses. In the present study, we used EEG to investigate the relationship between brain activity during a speech-shaped noise-filled pre-target time window, and the recognition of digit-words embedded in noise at three signal-to-noise ratios calibrated to individual participants' performance. Single-trial mixed-effects logistic regression revealed that alpha power in a left posterior temporal area between at least 300 ms and 50 ms prior to digit onset predicted target recognition. Elevated alpha power increases the likelihood of recognising easier stimuli but decreases the probability of recognising more heavily masked words. The mechanism we uncover might reflect a gain modulation mechanism that can suppress noise in speech-relevant perceptual channels. This is a first step in identifying pre-stimulus activity patterns that may be exploited as targets for neurofeedback or neurostimulation to assist with masked speech comprehension.
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