Salvaging the Library of Life The next century may well be dominated by the biological sciences. Both biotechnology and advancing medicine promise much. But consider: We have only begun the elementary counting and description of the world biota. Each species contains genetic variations of potential use, and at least of scientific interest. Although about 1.4 million species have been given scientific names, estimates of the total number of species range up to roughly 30 million, with some people guessing 100 million. This means we may very well not know the species diversity of the world flora and fauna to the nearest order of magnitude. Yet time is running out in which we can even catalog our living wealth. Very conservative estimates of the current extinction rate give roughly 5000 species lost annually, at least several species per day. Some suspect the true level may be 30,000 per year. And so we accelerate toward a calamity unparalleled in planetary history. The best known cause of present day species extinction is the cutting of tropical forests. They have lost about 55% of their original cover of, say, two centuries ago-and are shrinking at the rate of 1.8% per year. We now co-opt about 40% of plant growth worldwide, favoring monocultural crops, which must greatly affect genetic diversity. Given the blunt economic and cultural forces at work, even slowing the rate of destruction seems doubtful in the immediate future. Worse, the rate seems doomed to increase, since its ultimate cause is human activity, and human numbers and expectations grow apace. To improve the economic lot of a swelling human tropical population would require at least a five-fold increase in economic activity there, bringing a crushing load on the already strained biosphere. Other biological zones such as coral reefs and oceanic islands also dwindle at alarming rates. Because warmer regions host the greatest species diversity, losses are most severe in precisely the tropical continents where our own numbers swell so alarmingly. Everywhere there are calls for a halt to tropical deforestation. In October 1991, I gave a reasonably optimistic speech about our future at California Institute of Technology’s Centennial Celebration. It was a festive occasion, studded with Nobel Prize winners, amusing stories, wry wisdom-a testament to the rise of science and technology in our era. Gregory Emford, Department of Physics, University of Cdifomia, Irvine, CA 92717 Jcwmaf of Social and fiolmionar9 S9mn.s 16(4jz367-374 ISSN: 016L7361 Copyright 0 1993 by JAI Press, Inc. AU rights of ~cproduction in soy form fwmai.
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