End-use Electrification Research Articles

Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap

Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2 °C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%–88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.

Analysis and Evaluation of the Feasibility of Positive Energy Districts in Selected Urban Typologies in Vienna Using a Bottom-Up District Energy Modelling Approach

This article investigates the potential of selected urban typologies in Vienna to reach the state of Positive Energy Districts (PED) by achieving a positive annual energy balance. It follows the EU initiative for implementing at least 100 PED in Europe by 2025. Four urban typologies have been assessed using the bottom-up energy modelling tool MAPED that enables a simplified energy demand-supply analysis at the district scale. Considering relevant urban typologies in different construction periods, the analysis focused on converting the allocated building stocks into PED by employing comprehensive thermal refurbishment and energy efficiency measures, electrification of end-uses and fuel switching, exploitation of local renewable energy potential, and flexible interaction with the regional energy system. The results reveal that a detached housing district can achieve a positive annual energy balance (for heat and power) of 110% due to the fact that there are sufficient surfaces (roofs, facades, open land) available for the production of local renewable energy, whereas the remaining typologies fail to achieve the criteria with an annual balance ranking between 61% and 97%, showing additional margins for improvement to meet the PED conditions. The presented concept offers a practical approach to investigate the PED suitability of urban typologies. It will help the Austrian Ministry for Climate Action and Environment to identify appropriate strategies for the refurbishment of existing urban areas towards the PED standard.

The role of the power sector in net-zero energy systems

Policymakers, planners, and other stakeholders are increasingly interested in net-zero emissions energy systems as countries and companies adopt net-zero goals. The power sector will play an important function in deeply decarbonized energy systems to lower emissions in other sectors through electrification and electricity-derived fuels. This article summarizes insights from the literature on the role and characteristics of the electric power sector as part of net-zero emissions energy systems. The power sector generally has very low or negative emissions at the point where economy-wide net-zero emissions is reached, highlighting the importance of electricity decarbonization and the value of carbon removal in limiting costs of net-zero targets. End-use electrification can alter load shapes and impact electric sector planning and operations, but the scale of these changes in net-zero systems is uncertain. Variable renewables, firm low-carbon resources, energy storage technologies, transmission/trade, and more active demand-side management are expected to have larger roles than today, though the extent of deployment depends on uncertainties about future technologies, markets, and policies.

EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan\u2019s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings

In June, 2019, Japan submitted its mid-century strategy to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and pledged 80% emissions cuts by 2050. The strategy has not gone through a systematic analysis, however. The present study, Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), employs five energy-economic and integrated assessment models to evaluate the nationally determined contribution and mid-century strategy of Japan. EMF 35 JMIP conducts a suite of sensitivity analyses on dimensions including emissions constraints, technology availability, and demand projections. The results confirm that Japan needs to deploy all of its mitigation strategies at a substantial scale, including energy efficiency, electricity decarbonization, and end-use electrification. Moreover, they suggest that with the absence of structural changes in the economy, heavy industries will be one of the hardest to decarbonize. Partitioning of the sum of squares based on a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) reconfirms that mitigation strategies, such as energy efficiency and electrification, are fairly robust across models and scenarios, but that the cost metrics are uncertain. There is a wide gap of policy strength and breadth between the current policy instruments and those suggested by the models. Japan should strengthen its climate action in all aspects of society and economy to achieve its long-term target.

India’s energy sector choices—options and implications of ambitious mitigation efforts

This article examines the choices that might be needed for India’s energy sector under alternative mitigation scenarios. The article draws on the CD-LINKS study—a collaborative EU project under which seven pathways based on different combinations of carbon budget (high and low) and policy implementation (early and late) were developed and examined. This study uses the MARKAL energy system model to develop these scenarios. The three broad strategies that emerge for India include decarbonisation of electricity, electrification of end-uses and improvement in energy efficiency. We conclude that by undertaking early action, India can potentially prevent carbon lock-in and leapfrog to renewables from coal in the power sector. However, early action scenarios exhibit higher cost than their delayed action counterparts. Several other barriers and challenges also need to be addressed in order to enable large-scale uptake of low-carbon technologies. India may need to come up with innovative mechanisms to ensure a smooth and just transition for the economy.

Decarbonising the UK residential sector: The dependence of national abatement on flexible and local views of the future

The UK has some of the worst performing residential buildings in the EU from an energy efficiency perspective. Natural gas remains a dominant feature of existing and new-build housing with strong historical, technical, and social barriers to change. Consequently, the residential sector is responsible for significant shares of national emissions and has a strong role to play under ambitious net zero targets.To assess this role, this work combines long-term system-wide optimisation modelling with heat and electricity network models of representative residential locations. The scenario framework investigates key heating alternatives across futures with dwindling carbon budgets but lower restrictions on residential investment options. Comparing frameworks offers insights into “real life” applicability of technology solutions consistent with system-wide decarbonisation pathways to 2050.Residential sector heat plays an increasing role in lowering emissions as targets tighten. Moving away from natural gas becomes unavoidable and long-term trajectories combine end-use electrification, at household or collective levels, with supply-side decarbonisation. This is preferable to alternative gases that continue to carry uncertain emission impacts, but requires significant local network reinforcement. This could be deferred where technically difficult using near-term hybrid approaches. Enabling this transition will rely on policies that support open and varied technology portfolios.

Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time.

Electrification of passenger road transport and household heating features prominently in current and planned policy frameworks to achieve greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. However, since electricity generation involves using fossil fuels, it is not established where and when the replacement of fossil fuel-based technologies by electric cars and heat pumps can effectively reduce overall emissions. Could electrification policy backfire by promoting their diffusion before electricity is decarbonised? Here, we analyse current and future emissions trade-offs in 59 world regions with heterogeneous households, by combining forward-looking integrated assessment model simulations with bottom-up life-cycle assessment. We show that already under current carbon intensities of electricity generation, electric cars and heat pumps are less emission-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives in 53 world regions, representing 95% of global transport and heating demand. Even if future end-use electrification is not matched by rapid power sector decarbonisation, it likely avoids emissions in almost all world regions.

Value of technology in the U.S. electric power sector: Impacts of full portfolios and technological change on the costs of meeting decarbonization goals

Abstract Power sector decarbonization is an important pillar of climate mitigation efforts, but perspectives differ about the relative competitiveness of generation technologies and how limited portfolio approaches (e.g., where non-renewable generation options are prohibited) could alter the costs and likelihoods of reaching emissions reduction goals. The existing literature on impacts of technological availability and cost on electric sector planning typically use models that do not have sufficient technological, spatial, and temporal detail to adequately resolve the economic competitiveness of variable renewable energy vis-a-vis dispatchable generators. Using a state-of-the-art energy-economic model, this work examines impacts of technological availability and advanced generation technologies on U.S. electricity market outcomes across a range of regional, market, and policy contexts. We show that decarbonization costs are 11%–76% higher as technological options are removed from consideration (incremental compliance costs for a 95% CO2 reduction below 2005 levels are roughly twice as high when new nuclear, carbon-capture-equipped units, and transmission are not allowed). However, the economic and technical implications of limited portfolios depend on the market and policy contexts (e.g., costs are higher with stringent targets, more extensive end-use electrification, and lower gas prices) and the costs and capabilities of the remaining options. The analysis demonstrates how lower temporal and spatial resolution models likely understate the value of technology by omitting key economic and technical features of high variable renewable pathways. Additionally, the analysis quantifies how technological change can lower costs of emissions reductions by 7%–73% and how low-cost battery storage can provide a hedge against higher costs when technological portfolios are limited.

Analysis of China’s oil and gas consumption under different scenarios toward 2050: An integrated modeling

China’s oil and gas consumption, which is not only significant to the industry but also related with national energy security, faces uncertainties in the future. This paper analyzes China’s oil and gas consumption under five representative scenarios toward 2050 using an integrated modeling. In the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario, China’s oil consumption peaks at 705 million tons by 2035, and gas consumption ramps steadily up to reach 780 billion cubic meters by 2050. Oil provides 18% of China’s primary energy by 2030 and 15% by 2050, and gas 14% by 2030 and 17% by 2050. The 2 °C and the 1.5 °C scenarios control China’s 2050 oil consumption to 10% and 45% below the NDC level, respectively. Interestingly, more stringent mitigation tends to upscale China’s gas consumption before 2040. Compared with the NDC scenario, the oil-price scenarios present limited influences on China’s total energy consumption and end-use electrification but mainly feature a substitution between oil, gas and coal, non-fossil energy. Particularly, across our scenarios, China’s oil import dependence is projected to largely fluctuate around 70% toward 2050, and gas import dependence to reach 50–60% beyond 2030, implying a continuously high risk of energy resource supply and national energy security.

Electric Company Investments for 21st Century Electrification

This review highlights electric company strategies and practices that support end-use electrification amidst a global transformation of electric power systems, emphasizing near-term opportunities related to transportation and rural energy access, as well as enabling conditions for electrification pathways. Electrification is an integral part of twenty-first-century energy system transformation. Accelerated deployment of electric technologies can result in multiple potential benefits, including reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, improved air quality, lower costs, and better performance within specific energy end uses and the overall electricity system. Electric companies are actively supporting electrification with investments that further integrate the electric power system with transportation, buildings, agriculture, and other end-use sectors. Related investments in clean energy and smart infrastructure can ensure that electrification measures maximize their potential value to consumers, businesses, and society. With detailed knowledge of existing infrastructure, operational requirements, and end-user behavior and preferences, electric companies are uniquely positioned to inform electrification choices and ensure that infrastructure investments are made at the lowest cost to consumers.

Measuring the socio-economic footprint of the energy transition

The energy system is often treated as a self-contained system, disconnected from the broader socio-economic structures it is built upon. Understanding the enabling environment and structural elements will help to maximize the benefits of the transition and increase awareness of potential barriers and necessary adjustments along the way. IRENA has developed a methodology to measure the socio-economic footprint of energy transition roadmaps using the E3ME macro-econometric model, which evaluates the likely impacts in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), employment and human welfare. It is based on well-established historical databases and has a proven track record of policy applications. The presented socio-economic footprint analysis is based on the IRENA REmap energy transition roadmap 2018 that explores a higher deployment of low-carbon technologies, mostly renewable energy and energy efficiency. The results show that, with appropriate policies in place, reducing over 90% of the energy-related carbon dioxide emissions from the reference case via renewables and energy efficiency coupled with deep electrification of end-uses, results in consistently positive global GDP impacts across the period of analysis from 2018 to 2050. Across the world economy, the transition case leads to a relative increase of employment by 0.14% over the reference case throughout the analysed period from 2018 to 2050. In addition to GDP and employment growth, the energy transition can offer broader welfare gains. However, not all countries and regions around the world benefit equally, and just transition policies must be included to ensure all regions and communities are able to take advantage of the energy transition.

Optimal decarbonization pathways for urban residential building energy services

Strategies for decarbonizing residential building energy services can be divided into three categories: (1) shifting to less carbon-intensive fuels in the building energy supply mix, (2) adopting more energy-efficient end-use appliances, and (3) improving the thermal properties of buildings. We develop an optimization model that incorporates all three strategies, and determines the least-cost decarbonization pathway by balancing these levers and leveraging their synergistic relationships. Hourly service demand profiles are established using appliance-level empirical data and the CitySim building energy simulation software. We apply this framework to the residential buildings sector of Austin, Texas, which is a valuable test case due to its ambitious climate policy, rapid population growth, and strong space cooling demand in line with the shift of building energy demand toward warmer regions in the U.S. and globally. Results show that optimal decarbonization relies primarily on the electrification of end-uses and concomitant decarbonization of electricity supply. End-use appliance efficiency plays a comparatively minor role, limited to specific end-uses like lighting, space heating, and water heating. Upgrading building thermal efficiency significantly reduces the cost of climate policy, revealing an important policy complementarity between carbon reduction measures and building energy codes.

Electrification and the Future of Electricity Markets: Transitioning to a Low-Carbon Energy System

End-use electrification is one of the three pillars of deep decarbonization, which are fundamental strategies necessary to eliminate energy-system carbon emissions. As a low-carbon strategy, electrification is only effective when paired with reductions in the emissions intensity of electricity generation. Thus, any discussion of electrification's role in reducing carbon emissions, either through the direct electrification of end uses but also fuel switching to electricity derived fuels, must include supply-demand interactions within the electricity system. This article highlights what these interactions may look like in the transition to a very low-carbon energy system in the United States and some potential implications for the future of the grid and wholesale electricity markets. The concepts are primarily illustrated using updated scenarios from the 2014 U .S. Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP ) technical report.

Potential co-benefits of electrification for air quality, health, and CO2 mitigation in 2030 China

Electrification with decarbonized electricity is a central strategy for carbon mitigation. End-use electrification can also reduce air pollutant emissions from the demand sectors, which brings public health co-benefits. Here we focus on electrification strategies for China, a country committed to both reducing air pollution and peaking carbon emissions before 2030. Considering both coal-intensive and decarbonized power system scenarios for 2030, we assess the air quality, health and climate co-benefits of various end-use electrification scenarios for the vehicle and residential sectors relative to a non-electrified coal-intensive business-as-usual scenario (BAU). Based on an integrated assessment using the regional air pollution model WRF-Chem and epidemiological concentration–response relationships, we find that coal-intensive electrification (75% coal) does not reduce carbon emissions, but can bring significant air quality and health benefits (41,000–57,000 avoided deaths in China annually). In comparison, switching to a half decarbonized power supply (∼50% coal) for electrification of the transport and/or residential sectors leads to a 14–16% reduction in carbon emissions compared to BAU, as well as greater air quality and health co-benefits (55,000–69,000 avoided deaths in China annually) than coal intensive electrification. Furthermore, depending on which end-use sector is electrified, we find different regional distributions of air quality and health benefits. While electrifying the transport sector improves air quality throughout eastern China, electrifying the residential sector brings most benefits to the North China Plain region in winter where coal-based heating contributes substantially to air pollution.

California end-use electrification impacts on carbon neutrality and clean air

Widespread electrification, i.e., switching direct fossil fuel end-uses to electricity, coupled with renewable power use is essential to achieve aggressive greenhouse gas and criteria pollutant emission reduction targets. Few have investigated the requisite electric grid infrastructure transformation and technology path coupled with spatial and temporal resolution of criteria pollutant emissions for assessing air quality impacts. In this study, we analyze grid and emission impacts of electrifying end-use sectors while decarbonizing power generation, using detailed modeling of infrastructure stocks and economic dispatch of the electric utility grid network. Results show that decarbonizing power supply without electrifying end-use sectors can reduce total greenhouse gas emissions by only 2 percent, while partial electrification of end-use sectors alongside decarbonizing electricity generation yields up to 20.3 percent greenhouse gas emission reductions compared to 1990 levels. Spatially and temporally resolved criteria pollutant emissions portend certain scenarios that improve air quality more than others, requiring consideration of spatial and temporal emission perturbations dictated by specific electrification end-uses and power generation technology dynamics for meeting the increased electric demand.

A modeling comparison of deep greenhouse gas emissions reduction scenarios by 2030 in California

California aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. We compare six energy models that have played various roles in informing the state policymakers in setting climate policy goals and targets. These models adopt a range of modeling structures, including stock-turnover back-casting models, a least-cost optimization model, macroeconomic/macro-econometric models, and an electricity dispatch model. Results from these models provide useful insights in terms of the transformations in the energy system required, including efficiency improvements in cars, trucks, and buildings, electrification of end-uses, low- or zero-carbon electricity and fuels, aggressive adoptions of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), demand reduction, and large reductions of non-energy GHG emissions. Some of these studies also suggest that the direct economic costs can be fairly modest or even generate net savings, while the indirect macroeconomic benefits are large, as shifts in employment and capital investments could have higher economic returns than conventional energy expenditures. These models, however, often assume perfect markets, perfect competition, and zero transaction costs. They also do not provide specific policy guidance on how these transformative changes can be achieved. Greater emphasis on modeling uncertainty, consumer behaviors, heterogeneity of impacts, and spatial modeling would further enhance policymakers' ability to design more effective and targeted policies. This paper presents an example of how policymakers, energy system modelers and stakeholders interact and work together to develop and evaluate long-term state climate policy targets. Even though this paper focuses on California, the process of dialogue and interactions, modeling results, and lessons learned can be generally adopted across different regions and scales.

Long term climate change mitigation goals under the nuclear phase out policy: The Swiss energy system transition

The Swiss electricity system is dominated by low-carbon hydro and nuclear generation. The Government's decision to phase-out nuclear energy exacerbates Switzerland's climate change mitigation goals. Response to this challenge requires systemic changes to the energy system, which is generally a long-term, uncertain and systemic process, affected by technology choices across the entire energy system. A comprehensive Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM) with high temporal detail has been developed for the analysis of plausible low-carbon energy pathways focusing on uncertainties related to policy (climate change mitigation and acceptability of new centralised electricity generation) and international fuel prices. Increasing electrification of end-uses is seen across the scenarios, resulting in continuous growth in electricity demands. The electrification of heating and e-mobility substitute direct use of fossil fuels in end-use sectors and contribute to a significant carbon dioxide emission (CO2) reduction. Centralised gas power plants and renewables become key source of electricity supply. Given the phaseout of nuclear generation, clear policy signals are required to ensure capacity is built to achieve a low-carbon energy system. At the same time, it is also essential to ensure consistency between the electricity sector and end-use energy policies. For the long-term carbon reduction target, some non-cost-effective conservation measures are important early in the period because they are available only at the time of building renovation.

Effects of Low-Carbon Technologies and End-Use Electrification on Energy-Related Greenhouse Gases Mitigation in China by 2050

Greenhouse gas emissions in China have been increasing in line with its energy consumption and economic growth. Major means for energy-related greenhouse gases mitigation in the foreseeable future are transition to less carbon intensive energy supplies and structural changes in energy consumption. In this paper, a bottom-up model is built to examine typical projected scenarios for energy supply and demand, with which trends of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 can be analyzed. Results show that low-carbon technologies remain essential contributors to reducing emissions and altering emissions trends up to 2050. By pushing the limit of current practicality, emissions reduction can reach 20 to 28 percent and the advent of carbon peaking could shift from 2040 to 2030. In addition, the effect of electrification at end-use sectors is studied. Results show that electrifying transport could reduce emissions and bring the advent of carbon peaking forward, but the effect is less significant compared with low-carbon technologies. Moreover, it implies the importance of decarbonizing power supply before electrifying end-use sectors.