Electricity Exports Research Articles

Development of a Multi‐Region Power System Risk Management Model for Supporting China's Carbon Neutrality Ambition in 2060s

AbstractIn order to peak emissions before 2030 and to achieve the net‐zero ambition around 2060, China urgently needs to accelerate low‐carbon transition, especially in the power system. Previous studies were mainly focused on deterministic optimization, with some of them being followed by sensitivity analyses. To tackle the gaps and to support the net‐zero ambition, this study develops a multi‐region power system risk management (MPRM) model to analyze composite effects of renewable energy development and inter‐regional electricity transmission under uncertainties, and their combinations to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. In detail, MPRM can (a) reveal the downward trend in costs of renewable energy and the increasing in inter‐regional electricity transmission; (b) tackle the uncertainties expressed as intervals; (c) support the low‐carbon transition of the power system. Under the renewable‐dominated power structure, 90% of China's electricity demands can be derived from non‐fossil sources by 2060. Inter‐regional electricity transmission will continue to expand due to the dramatic decreases in the costs of renewables and fast‐growing demands for electricity. Northwest and east regions will be the main exporter and importer of renewable electricity. Carbon emissions from power system will peak in 2030 (about 6.21% above the 2020 level) and be eliminated by 96% (of 2030 levels) by 2060. These results can provide support for expansion of renewable capacities, acceleration of low‐carbon transition in power structure, elimination of barriers in electricity trading across regions, and exploration of the trade‐off between system costs and risk.

Energy Analysis of a NZEB Office Building with Rooftop PV Installation: Exploitation of the Employees’ Electric Vehicles Battery Storage

Near zero energy buildings are increasing worldwide, exploiting low-carbon technologies in heating and electricity self-production. Commercial buildings are increasingly considered as candidates for the installation of smart micro-grids, which may profit from the added storage capacity of the batteries of employees electric vehicles, stationed during daytime in their charging lots. Smart exploitation of the interaction of these electricity sources and sinks may prove essential to address the complex electricity network demand patterns in today’s fast changing energy mixture. The interaction of an efficient office building’s energy system with a big rooftop photovoltaic installation and the aggregate storage capacity of 40 electric cars that are connected in the building’s charging lots is studied by means of transient simulation in TRNSYS environment. The 18-zone building’s heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system, the cars’ batteries, and photovoltaic systems’ interactions are analyzed on a monthly, seasonal, and hourly basis, against the respective demand curves of the Greek network. The results suggest that the specific system’s size may profitably support the operation of a smart micro-grid. The total annual electricity consumption of the building is computed to reach 112,000 kWh, or 20 kWh/m2y. The annual electricity needs of the 40 electric cars, amounting to 101,000 kWh, can be fully met with 30% of the photovoltaic electricity production. Thus, the building becomes a net exporter of electricity to the network, with maximum exported electricity occurring daily between 12:00 and 14:00, which is favorable to meeting the demand curve. Thus, the establishment of smart micro-grids in commercial buildings with large rooftop photovoltaic panels’ capacity and a significant number of electric cars in the employees’ car fleet is quite effective in this direction.

Do people prefer offshore to onshore wind energy? The role of ownership and intended use

Global investments in offshore wind energy are expected to escalate over the coming decades, fueled by improvements in technology, declining costs, and increasing political support. The complexity, scale, and location of these developments make international ownership and export of electricity more feasible. We examine how the general public's acceptance of wind energy will be affected by a political shift in focus from onshore to nearshore or offshore locations, from local or national dominance of ownership to international dominance, and from meeting local or national needs to meeting international ones. We use a nationwide choice experiment with 1612 individuals in Norway to reveal the preferences for these attributes and apply a mixed logit regression model to estimate the willingness to pay to avoid certain outcomes. We show that, although respondents prefer offshore and nearshore locations to onshore ones, they are even more concerned with maintaining local or national control both through ownership and intended use of the added electricity. Although the preferences for national ownership are strong for both nearshore and offshore alternatives, the preference for meeting national needs becomes less important when wind energy developments are located farther off the coast. Three wind energy scenarios are used to further investigate these preferences: 1) international consortium for offshore wind energy, 2) national alliances for nearshore wind energy, and 3) local energy communities for onshore wind energy. We also discuss how a shift to nearshore and offshore wind energy can be enabled by paying greater attention to people's concerns over national control of wind energy resources.

Hydropower generation potential and prospective scenarios for sustainable electricity supply for the period 2022–2042: A case study of the NIN zone of Cameroon

Hydropower is the sole renewable energy source on the grid in Cameroon, accounting for approximately 62% of this supply as of 2019. So far, hydropower is the most attractive source of grid electricity in the country, with a technically exploitable capability of around 115 TWh per year. However, the actual hydropower output (943 kW) is quite low, corresponding to about 7% of the country’s technically exploitable potential. The South Interconnected Network (SIN) zone, home to a technically exploitable potential of 83 TWh per year, produces 98.00% of the country’s hydroelectricity, while the North Interconnected Network (NIN) zone generates the remainder. Nevertheless, with its technically exploitable capability of around 7.5 TWh per year, the NIN zone has the potential to alleviate the energy poverty of its population and forecast sustainable energy-consuming projects (SECP), including electricity export (EE) to neighboring Chad and Nigeria. The present study is aimed at exploring short, median and high scenarios based on projected Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) of the national real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which are translated into electricity demand (ED) expected over a 20-year period (2022–2042). High scenario is an optimistic status that displays an AAGR of the GDP projected at 6.40%, equivalent to projected ED (PED) of 6.61%, while median scenario is a more conservative status, with realistic assumptions aligned with an AAGR of the GDP anticipated at 5.0%, corresponding to PED of 5.79%. Low scenario, more likely in the aftermath of COVID-19 pandemic, is the most pessimistic status, with an AAGR of 3.60% matching a PED of 3.60%. To achieve the objective of this study, a comprehensive review on economically exploitable hydropower potential (EEHP) sites in the NIN zone is performed, while under construction hydroelectric plants and projected ones are highlighted. Finally, the intended special contribution of this research is to shed light on hydrologic and energetic parameters of prioritized hydropower sites which match PED, under the best-case scenario of SECP expected by the end of the 20-year period in the zone.

Solar Energy Development Prospects in the Republic of Dagestan

Solar energy development prospects in the Republic of Dagestan are analyzed. The expected amount of electricity generated by solar power plants is estimated. The data obtained have shown that this region has a sufficient potential for the development of solar energy, which makes it possible to compensate for the shortage of electricity generation in the Dagestan electric power system equal to 3.1 billion kWh per annum. Electric power generation versions implying the use of photovoltaic converters (PVC), a solar tower with Rankine cycle planar heliostats (STPP), and a Stirling cycle parabolic dish heliostat (PDPP) are considered. In terms of technical and economic indicators, the PDPP is more preferable, and good prospects of the system are beyond doubt. However, more matured PVC and STPP technologies are presently put is use on a mass scale in the big energy sector. In view of a significant scatter in the technical and economic indicators around the world, for the PVC, STPP and PDPP technologies to be compared in a correct way, they should be implemented according to the standards and prices of one country. The kinds of renewable energy sources that are probabilistic in nature should be considered in the big electric power industry as backup-and-replacement sources; i.e., their function is to save hydrocarbon and, to a certain extent, nuclear fuel. The introduction of these technologies in the Republic of Dagestan will make it possible to save a significant amount of hydrocarbon fuel in the United Power System of South (for example, 706329114 m3 of gas, which necessary to generate the amount of electricity equal to the above-mentioned shortage, by thermal power plants operating with efficiency equal to 40%). This is important, because the absolute calm in 2021 in the European wind energy caused a jump in the spot price of gas up to $1969 for thousand cubic meters, whereas the price of Gazprom's exports to the far abroad was $313.4 for thousand cubic meters. When exporting gas at these prices, the state will receive $1390762026 or $221363544, respectively, and $191028200 when exporting electricity directly in the amount of the above-mentioned shortage. The obtained study results can be used in the development of regional and local programs of stimulating investments in the renewable energy. Gas exports are currently more profitable than the direct exports of electricity, and the proceeds gained from the gas exports should preferably be invested in the further development of renewable energy.

Techno-economic analysis of a proposed 10 MW geothermal power plant in Fiji

Climate change related issues affect energy infrastructure of island nations on a regular basis. Fiji, a miniscule emitter, has set a net-zero national target by 2050 and geothermal power plant (GPP) is a possible renewable energy technology to meet this target. However, there are no feasibility studies for GPP in Fiji. The main objective of this paper is to conduct a techno-economic-environmental feasibility study of a proposed 10 MW organic Rankine cycle (ORC) GPP using the RETScreen tool. The modelling results show that 78.9 GWh of electricity can be produced that can reduce 39,461 tCO2-eq emissions for Fiji's energy sector. Three scenarios were modelled to study the effect of different incentives (electricity export rate, clean energy production incentive rate, emission trading rate, and renewable energy capacity development incentive) on the project's financials. The current study is the first country-specific study done in ORC GPP in Fiji and the results can inform and help potential investors, donors and government agencies make judicious decisions on geothermal power development. The study recommends that apart from financial factors, other factors, such as capacity building of key stakeholders and a conducive regulatory environment, are essential to promote GPP.

ECONOMIC ASPECTS AND DIRECTIONS OF DEVELOPMENT ENERGY SECTOR IN UKRAINE

The article analyzes that the volume of electricity production in the power industry will increase from 185.2 billion kWh in 2005 to 420.1 billion kWh in 2030 (2.3 times). The dominant role of electricity production at thermal (40.8% in 2005, 39.8% in 2030) and nuclear (47.9 and 52.1%, respectively) power plants will be preserved. At the same time, the production of electricity at hydropower plants will increase from 12.1 billion kWh (6.5%) in 2005 to 14.1 billion kWh (3.4%) in 2030 and at the expense of non-traditional and renewable sources energy – from 0.01 billion kWh in 2005 to 2.1 billion kWh in 2030. The costs of electricity in the power grid for its transportation will be reduced from 14.7% in 2005 to at least 8.2% in 2030, and the specific cost of fuel for the production of electricity in the network – from 378.9 to 345.7 in. / kWh The share of electricity generated from imported fuel will decrease from 58.0% in 2005 to 8.2% in 2030 (7 times) (Fig. 4.5). To ensure these volumes of electricity production, the capacity of power plants has been set at UAH 52 million. kW in 2005 to 88.5 million kW in 2030, including thermal power plants from 30.1 to 42.2 million kW and nuclear power plants – from 13.8 to 29.5 million kW. The capacity of the PSP HPP will be increased from UAH 4.7 to UAH 10.5 million. kW, providing the country’s energy system with sufficient shunting capacity. The construction of main power lines, integrated management and emergency protection systems to increase the capacity of power plants, improve electricity supply in some regions, ensure reliable operation of the Unified Energy System and its integration into the European energy system with increasing electricity exports.

Do increased cross-border flow and greater competition in the market lead to lower electricity prices for end-consumers?

For our research, which aims to provide another approach to assessing the development of the retail electricity market in the EU, we tested the hypothesis positing that increased cross-border flow and greater competition in the market lead to lower electricity prices for end-consumers. To verify the hypothesis, we collected data on electricity imports and exports between 2010 and 2018 and data on real electricity prices in retail markets in all EU member states. Data on prices were obtained for the period between 2010 and 2019. We also used real electricity prices for consumers in the retail markets of EU member states collected at the EU level by Eurostat, whereby as a price deflator we used the harmonised index of consumer prices. Applying regression analysis and descriptive statistics,we verified whether the cross-border flow, i.e., electricity imports and exports, and greater competition in the market lead to lower real electricity prices for end-consumers. After examination, the hypothesis was rejected. However, our research resulted in interesting findings and reflections outside the established economic frameworks.

Inter-Provincial Electricity Trading and Its Effects on Carbon Emissions from the Power Industry

Electricity trading is an effective measure to minimize carbon emissions and alleviate the imbalance between reverse distribution of regional energy resources and power load. However, the effects of China’s electricity trading on carbon emissions have not been fully explored due to lack of complete and balanced inter-provincial power transmission data. Therefore, the electricity generation–consumption downscaling model, logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model, and random forest clustering algorithm within a general framework were used in the present study to explore the effect of electricity trading on level of carbon emissions. Comprehensive inter-provincial electricity transmission data were generated, driving factors including electricity imports and exports were decomposed at the national and provincial scales, and clustered provincial policy implications were evaluated. The results revealed that: (i) although economic activities were the main driving factor for increase in carbon emissions at the national level, 382.95 million tons carbon emissions were offset from 2005 to 2019 due to inter-provincial electricity importation, whereas electricity export increased carbon emission by 230.30 million tons; (ii) analysis at the provincial level showed that electricity exports from Sichuan and Yunnan provinces accounted for more than 20% of the nation’s total electricity flow. Notably, this high level of exports did not significantly increase carbon emissions in these provinces owing to the abundant hydropower resources; (iii) emission reductions were only observed at the national level if the carbon intensity of the exporting provinces was lower compared with that of importing provinces, or if the electricity trading was generated from renewable sources; (iv) the effect of electricity import on emissions reduction was markedly higher relative to the effect of electricity export in most provinces, which reflected the actual situation of sustaining optimization of electricity generation structure in provincial grids of China. These findings provide a basis for decision makers to understand the contributions of electricity trading to the changes in carbon emissions from electricity generation, as well as form a foundation to explore practicable carbon emission mitigation strategies in the power industry.

Interaction of a House’s Rooftop PV System with an Electric Vehicle’s Battery Storage and Air Source Heat Pump

Understanding the implications of introducing increasing shares of low-carbon technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles on the electricity network demand patterns is essential in today’s fast changing energy mixture. Application of heat pumps for heating and cooling, combined with the rooftop installation of photovoltaic panels, is already considered as a convenient retrofitting strategy towards building electrification. This may further profit from the parallel, rapid electrification of the automotive powertrain, as demonstrated in the present study. Exploitation of the combined battery storage of the house owners’ electric car(s) may help cover, to a significant degree, the building’s and cars’ electricity needs. To this end, an efficient single family house’s energy system with an optimized rooftop PV installation, heat pump heating and cooling, and two high efficiency electric cars is studied by transient simulation. The use of TRNSYS simulation environment makes clear the interaction of the house’s heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system, the house’s and cars’ batteries, and the rooftop PV system in transient operation. The building’s and EV’s energy performance on a daily, monthly, and seasonal level is compared with the respective demand curves and energy sources of the Greek electricity network. The specific design of the house’s energy system makes it a net exporter of electricity to the grid, to an annual amount of 5000 kWh. On the other hand, electricity imports are slightly exceeding 400 kWh and limited to the first two months of the year. In addition to the self-sufficiency of the household, the impact to the electricity grid becomes favorable due to the phase shift of the electricity export towards the late afternoon hours, thus assisting the evening ramp-up and adding to the grid’s stability and resilience. Based on the results of this study, the possibility of combining the financial incentives for the purchase of an EV with those for the installation of rooftop PV in the owners’ house is very promising and worth considering, due to the demonstrated synergy of electrical storage with the rooftop photovoltaic installations.

Love thy neighbor (or not): Regionalism and support for the use of offshore wind energy by others

Distributive fairness influences public acceptance of renewable energy technologies. Concerns about distributive fairness contribute to opposition to export of electricity and public preferences for electricity to be consumed near its production. Distributional issues are relevant to offshore wind energy development, where the coastal communities nearest to the developments may see none of the jobs, economic development, or profits associated with development, with undersea cables often delivering the electricity to faraway places. In a survey of coastal residents in the northeast United States, we find differences in support for use of offshore wind energy in their own state. Support for electricity use by other states, however, reveals the effects of subnational regionalism. Residents of Rhode Island prefer the use of electricity produced off their shores by the state of Massachusetts over New York; residents of New Hampshire prefer for Maine to consume energy over Massachusetts. These findings portend conflicts over the transmission of electricity as offshore wind energy development expands in U.S. and has implications for all renewable energy transmission that crosses regional boundaries.

Assessing green energy growth in Nepal with a hydropower-hydrogen integrated power grid model

The involvement of green hydrogen in energy transformation is getting global attention. This assessment examines the hydrogen production and its utilization potential in one of the hydropower-rich regions, Nepal under various demand growth and technology intervention scenarios by developing a power grid model of 52 nodes and 68 transmission lines operating at an hourly time-step. The model incorporates a grid-connected hydrogen storage system as well as charging stations for electric and hydrogen vehicles. The least-costly pathways for power grid expansion at the nodal and provincial levels are identified through optimization. The results show that 32 GW of installed capacity is required to meet domestic electricity demand and 14 GW more hydropower should be exploited to completely decarbonize the transport sector by 2050. For maintaining 50% shares of hydrogen vehicle in the transport sector and meet government electricity export targets, Nepal requires 5.7 GW, 12 GW and 23 GW of the additional electrolyzer, hydrogen storage tanks and storage-based hydropower capacities respectively. For a given electricity demand, introducing hydrogen systems can reduce the capacity requirements of hydro storage by storing surplus power generated from pondage run-of-the-river and run-of-the-river hydropower during the rainy season and using it in the dry season.

Optimizing dynamics of water-energy-food nexus in a desert climate

This study explores the potential effects of electricity pricing on crop cultivation in Saudi Arabia. The country recently started implementing a domestic energy price reform strategy to make energy consumption more sustainable and increase government revenues as highlighted in the Fiscal Balance Program one of the key realization programs of Vision 2030. Two modeling schemes were developed to complete this analysis. First, a model that applies physical equations to estimate water and energy requirements for 21 crops across 13 provinces. Second, an optimization model that runs iteratively to determine short-run electricity costs, import costs and export revenues. The main finding from the model simulations is that increasing electricity prices will shrink the domestic cultivation and exports of the crops while increasing their imports. For example, as an extreme case, if the agriculture electricity price is raised from $0.048 per kWh to the US industrial electricity price level of $0.692 per kWh, the model optimizes that this will reduce electricity consumption from 33.65 gWh to 7.84 gWh, domestic crop cultivation from 15.1 million tons to 6.3 million tons, and crops' export from 0.062 million tons to 0.057 million tons while will increase crops’ import from 9.5 million tons to 18.3 million tons.

Challenges in reaching positive energy building level in apartment buildings in the Nordic climate: A techno-economic analysis

Buildings consume significant amount of final energy and they emit large amount of CO2 emissions. To address this issue, nearly zero energy buildings is becoming a common in many countries, while research is advancing towards the positive energy building (PEB) target by utilizing renewable energy that can support reducing the emissions from the building stock. The aim of this study, is to design and model a renewable-based energy system for a real demo apartment building in Nordics (Finland) in order to be a PEB, by exceeding the building’s heating, cooling and plug load demands. The novelty of this study is to assesses the fulfillment of the PEB level in cold climate, by simulating various technologies (such as photovoltaic-thermal (PVT) system, heat pump (HP), wind turbines, seasonal thermal energy storage etc.) their integration with the building, its controls strategies, types of load included in the energy balance and definition of building boundaries across which the balance is calculated. TRNSYS simulation software is mainly used for dynamic simulation of the energy system. The electricity import and export, the life cycle cost (LCC), and the onsite energy matching factors are calculated to estimate the performance of the proposed system. In addition, the challenges related to the building’s limited physical boundary are discussed. The results of this study shows that, if all the demands are included, i.e. heating, cooling and plug loads, then it is difficult to reach the PEB level. In this case, the investment cost in the energy system is around 47–62% of the LCC and the rest is the operational cost. On the other hand, the PEB level is relatively easier to achieve if the plug loads are excluded, then the investment cost is around 88–100% of the LCC and there can be positive cash flow due to larger energy export than import. The PEB level is possible to be achieved when all the demands are included if the building boundary is extended to a virtual boundary outside its physical boundary that allows the addition of more renewable generations or by changing the building’s shape that allows the more installations of renewables on the roof. In this scenario, the investment cost on the energy system is around 62–91% of the LCC. Compared to the building cost, the energy system cost is generally low, i.e. around 1.2–4.3% of the building cost.. It can be concluded that in the Nordic conditions, it is difficult to reach the PEB level for the buildings in urban areas if the all the building’s energy demands are included. Renewable energy generations, such as additional PVT and wind turbines, are needed to be installed in an extended (virtual) boundary of the building if the PEB criterion has to be met when considering all the energy demands. Investment cost of the renewable energy system is low compared to the building’s cost, therefore, such renewable-based solutions can be provided with small additional cost, along with the new building’s cost, so that PEB and carbon neutrality targets can be achieved.

Contributing to regional decarbonization: Australia's potential to supply zero-carbon commodities to the Asia-Pacific

The Asia-Pacific has experienced prodigious growth in energy use and is by far the world's largest greenhouse-gas emitting region. Australia has played a leading role in meeting the region's energy and resource needs, becoming the world's largest exporter of coal, liquefied natural gas, iron ore, and alumina. Our analysis shows that these exports are tied to sizeable consequential emissions at the point of use or processing, accounting for about 8.6% of the total greenhouse gas emissions of the Asia-Pacific. The paper investigates three pathways by which Australia could instead export zero-carbon energy and products: direct exports of renewable electricity via sub-sea cables, exports of zero-carbon fuels such as green hydrogen, and the export of “green” metals processed from Australian ores using renewable energy. Carrying out robust, high-level calculations we find that Australia has the land and renewable energy resources to become a key exporter of these commodities. Realization of this potential relies on ongoing cost reductions, growing demand-side interest linked to meeting ambitious emission reduction targets in the region, and the development of cross-border frameworks for clean energy trade. If it were to achieve this goal, Australia could make a sizeable contribution to regional decarbonization via renewable-energy based exports.

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Water and Fossil-Fuel Consumptions for Polyethylene Furanoate and Its Coproducts from Wheat Straw

Polyethylene furanoate (PEF) is a bioplastic that can potentially replace its fossil-fuel counterpart, polyethylene terephthalate (PET), to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A life-cycle GHG, water, and fossil-fuel consumption analysis is conducted for a potential bioplastic alternative for a fossil-based PET resin, or PEF on a kg-resin basis. PEF is assumed to be produced from a lignocellulosic feedstock (i.e., wheat straw) via furanics conversion reactions through three different pathways. The system boundary includes cradle-to-gate processes including feedstock farming, pretreatment, hydrolysis, conversion into furanics, recovery, polymerization into PEF, and on-site combined heat and power (CHP) generation. While electricity export from the CHP plant is assumed to displace the U. S. grid electricity, other coproducts of PEF are assumed to distribute the emissions and energy burdens on a mass basis. The results showed that all three PEF routes achieved significant GHG reduction relative to its fossil-based counterpart (i.e., PET): 134, 139, and 163% reduction for routes 1, 2, and 3, respectively. While fossil-fuel consumptions for all three pathways were also significantly reduced (i.e., 79, 57, and 53% reduction for routes 1, 2, and 3), water consumptions for routes 1 and 2 were increased by 168 and 79%, respectively, while route 3 only achieved reduction (by 77%) relative to fossil-PET. Different sensitivity analyses were conducted, and the results showed that coproduct allocation methods and wheat straw management assumption were the most important. A preliminary analysis on the farmland area and cost required to reduce unit mass of GHGs using PEF to replace PET is also conducted, showing a promising result for both metrics: (i) 3 metric tons of GHGs reduced/ha for all three PEF pathways and (ii) affordable cost of GHG abatement for routes 1 and 2, while route 3 even generated profits.

Modelling low carbon electricity generation of an integrated ASEAN power grid

In 1997, 10 economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) established the ASEAN Power Grid (APG), a cross-border interconnection network that effectively uses regional energy resources. This study aims to quantify the effect of ASEAN power grid interconnection on electricity exports-imports between south-east Asia economies and its implications for renewable energy shares and carbon emission in power generation. Three scenarios are assessed in this model. The Base Scenario simulates APG parameters in 2030, considering four existing interconnections and those interconnection projects currently under construction. The second scenario, HAPUA Scenario, includes all the future interconnection projects outlined in the HAPUA report. The carbon tax scenario as the last scenario, aims to evaluate whether carbon pricing policies in Southeast Asia may incentivise cleaner energy and renewable energy development in the region. Under the HAPUA Scenario, Indonesia increases coal and/or gas-fired generation for electricity exports, contributing to a slight increase in CO2 emissions from power generation for the ASEAN region. It appears that carbon price affects the choice of electricity generation and incentivise cross-border electricity trade. Under the carbon tax scenario, emissions will decline to 719 MtCO2 or 22% lower than the base scenario and 24% than the HAPUA scenario.

The Use of Renewable Energy Sources and Mainly Wind Energy for the Production of Electricity in Albania

Electricity production in Albania is dominated by hydropower plants, Vau i Dejës, Koman and Fierzë with a capacity of 1,350 MW. The total net domestic electricity production realized for 2021 was 8,962,699 MWh, of which: 5 343 974 MWh was produced by the power plants owned by the public company KESH sh.a.; 3 618 725 MWh was produced by other power plants (INSTAT, 2021). This production was realized by public hydropower plants to the extent of 59.6%, by private and concessionary hydropower plants to the extent of 39.9% and by other producers (Photovoltaics) to the extent of 0.5% of the net domestic electricity production. The gross import of electricity (energy in receipt) reached the value of 2,253 GWh from 3,239 GWh that was a year ago, marking a decrease of 30.4%. The gross export of electricity (energy in delivery) reached the value of 2,800 GWh from 963 GWh, marking an increase of 2.9 times. Wind energy is a renewable energy such as energy produced from water, solar and biomass. Thanks to the progress in the reconstruction of modern wind energy converters, wind energy is becoming one of the main factors in providing electricity from renewable energies.

Losses of endogenous potential of the regions of Ukraine during war

The problems of the economic development of the regions of Ukraine caused by the war are considered. The destructive impact of the war on the economic development of the regions manifested in disintegration, loss of production connections, and violation of spatial disparities between regions, is shown. The article determines that the greatest economic losses are experienced by industrial regions where active hostilities are taking place. The industries suffering the highest losses include mining, oil-refining, by-product coke industry, metallurgy, food, etc. The article reveals that the distribution of economic losses caused by the war depends on the economic structure of the region. The volumes of production and export of products are subject to the destructive influence of the war, regardless of whether the hostilities are directly at the territory of the region. Interestingly, the strengthening of the endogenous potential of Ukrainian regions will depend on the opportunities for the development of industry and agriculture with a higher added value. The hostilities and the disruption of logistical ties have become a new challenge to endogenous development for regions specializing in agricultural production. The article reveals that agricultural regions should respond to new challenges by diversifying production lines and developing the agro-processing sector. Ukraine's entry into the single energy market with EU countries will contribute to the growth of endogenous potential. The advantages of joining the European energy grid are outlined, including higher stability of the energy system, increase in network capacity, creation of a common energy market, development of green energy, etc. Ukraine has received the opportunity to actively export electricity to the EU countries, which will allow the power industry to have taken second place in the country's balance of payments after the export of agricultural products by the end of the first half of 2022. It is emphasized that the obtained opportunities in energy are actively destabilized by the aggressor state in order to reduce the endogenous potential of the regions and export opportunities. The export of electricity was stopped as 40% of the country's energy infrastructure was destroyed as a result of missile attacks on the energy system of Ukraine. The article determines that the threat of active hostilities on the territory of the Zaporizka NPP has a scale not only of local but also of global significance. In the energy industry, the renewable energy sector has suffered large-scale destruction: 70% of wind power plants were destroyed, 50% of industrial solar power plants were damaged, 15% of bioenergy capacities were destroyed, etc. The significant losses in the renewable energy sector are caused by the location of the main facilities in the regions of active hostilities. The situation with the maintenance of the stable functioning of power grids in the regions of Ukraine remains difficult, affecting their economic development. The post-war restoration of the energy infrastructure on the basis of the green economy will become the basis for the energy security of the state and the endogenous development of the regions.

Forecasting Electricity Consumption and Production in Smart Homes through Statistical Methods

• Methods for forecasting energy demand and production are proposed. • Predictions contribute to balance and smoothen the electricity intake from the power grid. • Experimental evaluation is performed on data recorded on a real energy-management system. • The ARIMA and TBATS models are configured and then compared with other forecasting methods. Over the last years, a steady increase in both domestic electricity consumption and in the adoption of personal clean energy production systems has been observed worldwide. By analyzing energy consumption and production on photovoltaic panels mounted in a house, this work focuses on finding patterns in electrical energy consumption and devising a predictive model. Our goal is to find an accurate method to predict electrical energy consumption and production. Being able to anticipate how consumers will use energy in the near future, homeowners, companies and governments may optimize their behavior and the import and export of electricity. We evaluated the ARIMA and TBATS statistical prediction methods and compared them with other models on datasets from a household equipped with photovoltaics and an energy management system. The evaluation results have shown a mean absolute error of 73.62 Watts for the TBATS model, which is far better than the one obtained with neural forecasting methods.