Modelling low carbon electricity generation of an integrated ASEAN power grid

Abstract

In 1997, 10 economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) established the ASEAN Power Grid (APG), a cross-border interconnection network that effectively uses regional energy resources. This study aims to quantify the effect of ASEAN power grid interconnection on electricity exports-imports between south-east Asia economies and its implications for renewable energy shares and carbon emission in power generation. Three scenarios are assessed in this model. The Base Scenario simulates APG parameters in 2030, considering four existing interconnections and those interconnection projects currently under construction. The second scenario, HAPUA Scenario, includes all the future interconnection projects outlined in the HAPUA report. The carbon tax scenario as the last scenario, aims to evaluate whether carbon pricing policies in Southeast Asia may incentivise cleaner energy and renewable energy development in the region. Under the HAPUA Scenario, Indonesia increases coal and/or gas-fired generation for electricity exports, contributing to a slight increase in CO2 emissions from power generation for the ASEAN region. It appears that carbon price affects the choice of electricity generation and incentivise cross-border electricity trade. Under the carbon tax scenario, emissions will decline to 719 MtCO2 or 22% lower than the base scenario and 24% than the HAPUA scenario.